Hot & Cold Map: Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The first game of Act Three of the 2025 season was a dud.  The Ravens botched, blew and out-bungled the Bengals, giving Cincinnati life so that maybe – maybe – Joe Burrow can rip off six wins in a row to lead the team to the division crown.  Just when you think that the Ravens organization is righting the ship, a good quarterback shows up to dispel us of that notion.

The proof is in the pudding.  They are 6-0 when facing Joe Flacco, Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, J.J. McCarthy, Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders, and Tyrod Taylor.  They are 0-6 when facing Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Matthew Stafford, and Burrow (no, Williams doesn’t belong in the second group; not yet).

What does this mean going into the highest stakes game of the season to date – the critical home game against the Steelers? They are having plenty of problems of their own. They are 19^th in PFF’s team rankings, one spot ahead of the Ravens, and basically look like the same team. Their offense ranks 15^th in points and 27^th in yards, and their defense ranks 20^th in points and 28^th in yards. They’ve done nothing particularly well except one thing, a very Steeler thing: forcing turnovers. They’re 2^nd in the NFL in forcing turnovers and 1^st in fumble recoveries with 12.

Just what the Ravens – third worst in the league with 10 lost fumbles – need.

Steelers Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Steelers have no wide receivers. That’s hyperbole, but they use 11 personnel 32.53% of their snaps, last in the NFL.  More on this later. Unlike Cleveland, they use 12 personnel less, but only by a whisker (31.48%). They use jumbo formations more than most, and even 13 personnel 17.09% of their snaps. Is it a coincidence that the three teams that use WR the least are collectively in the worst division? Well, yes, because this isn’t new and the AFC North was much better just a couple years ago. It’s not a coincidence however that these three teams play off each other’s tendencies… Bengals aside. For OC Arthur Smith’s sake, it’s also driven by their roster.

Aaron Rodgers is going to waltz into Canton unless he does something horrendous off the field. That said, he’s laid down three straight stinkers against LA, Cincy, and Buffalo, throwing for 60% or lower completion rate and under 200 yards. He’s competing, but the truth is he’s 42 years old, banged up, and has few options to throw to. The paper says, he’s in the have-not category that the Ravens have won against. D.K. Metcalf doesn’t have the speed he used to and their other receivers are slot options at best. Enter Adam Thielen, claimed off waivers from the Vikings. Rumor is the team will try more 3WR sets and spread the Ravens out a bit more in the attempt to surprise them. We’ll see if that is just smoke.

Why? Because the team is structured to go big. They have the three-headed TE group of Darnell Washington, Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth. Washington is excelling in what he’s good at – mauling people at the line and opening lanes for Tyler Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, backs who are doing well with what they’re given. What may surprise people is that Pittsburgh’s interior pass blocking is going very well, with Isaac Seumalo playing at a Pro Bowl level, but that only goes so far if nobody’s getting open down the field. Having to play Andrus Peat, who was playing guard, at LT due to multiple injuries will not help, however.

The Steelers have to be creative in order to move the ball at all. Their offense on its own will not score against the Ravens; but, they probably won’t have to do it all on their own. They’re going to score points thanks to their defense, and I think they can play Steeler football and inch over the 2-point mark.

Steelers Defense vs. Ravens Offense

DC Teryl Austin’s iteration of the vaunted Steelers defense is classic in form but not in function. They have been the poster child for the aggressive odd-front defense for decades, which is essentially a 5-2 in base, sending all sorts of disguised blitzes and zone blitzes and getting as many pass rushers on the field as they can fit. They have no problem if a run blitz leads to a pass blitz. More than anything, they focus all that pressure on creating turnovers. While they have been causing those turnovers, it’s been at the expense of yards and EPA per play, especially against 2TE sets, which the Ravens like to use (+0.05 EPA/pass, +0.15 EPA/rush).

It’s a little crazy that 36-year-old Cam Heyward is playing the best ball on their defense of late, but he is. He is by far the biggest worry on their interior defensive line, and attention to him frees up NT Keanu Benton for the occasional sack. Alex Highsmith returned to the lineup last week against Buffalo and picked up where he left off. Rotational EDGE Nick Herbig has 40 pressures and seven sacks on the season, and can’t be taken lightly either. The front unit as a whole isn’t dominant however, because T.J. Watt isn’t dominant right now. I hesitate to say it, as if speaking his All Pro level of play back into existence, but he’s been contained, to an extent, in Pittsburgh’s last four games.

The Ravens will have to stick to their supposed identity and run the ball, and the place to do it is on the weak side (or whichever side Heyward isn’t) as there isn’t much resistance there. Patrick Queen is a good blitzer – we know this from his time in Baltimore – but doesn’t tackle very well, and Payton Wilson is another unguided missile type. On top of that, neither has done well in coverage. Additionally, starting SS Kyle Dugger is out for this game. Their pass defense is giving up large chunks of yardage, and if the Ravens can be the threat they’re supposed to be running the ball, we’ll see explosive plays out of the passing game.

I should not have to remind any Ravens or Steelers fan that the Ravens have to protect the ball because the Steelers will be coming after it at all costs. How many games have the Steelers stolen from the Ravens due to a timely takeaway? It’s the kind of thing that should cost jobs after having seen it on both sides over the decades. Like it were Auburn-Alabama or Ohio St-Michigan. In the past, players have been cut for such a thing in this once bitter rivalry.

It’s going to happen again, I fear. The Ravens will cost themselves at least 10 points on offense, just like in the Bengals game, except this time against a defense that has a reputation for it.

Conclusion

Once again the Ravens have the better team on paper. They just do.

It doesn’t matter. If any game exists where it doesn’t matter, it’s this one. Steelers week. The loser of this game becomes a long shot to make the playoffs. The winner has control of the division. It’s the kind of game that will – well, should, but perhaps won’t – have a lasting impact on its participants.

The only thing I feel confident about is that it will be a one-score game and someone’s going to have their heart ripped out again.

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