BOLD PREDICTIONS: Ravens vs. Patriots

It’s a Sunday Night Football primetime battle from M&T Bank Stadium when the Baltimore Ravens (7-7) host the New England Patriots (11-3). Baltimore currently sits behind 8-6 Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings, while New England holds a one-game lead over 10-4 Buffalo. The Ravens have won six of their past eight games after starting the season 1-5, while the Patriots have won 10 of their last 11 contests.

New England leads the all-time regular season series vs. Baltimore, 9-3. In postseason play, the series is tied, 2-2. Under head coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 5-7 overall against the Patriots, including a 2-1 mark in Charm City. These teams last met in Baltimore for a 2019 Sunday Night Football game, when the Ravens won, 37-20.

Television: NBC / WBAL Ch. 11 (Baltimore)

On The Call: ✗ Mike Tirico (PBP) ✗ Cris Collinsworth (analyst) ✗ Melissa Stark (sideline)

Officiating Crew Chief: Brad Rogers

Forecast at Kickoff: Clear skies, 36 degrees, winds NW at 13 MPH with gusts up to 22 MPH, wind chill 25 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation

Betting Line:

• DraftKings: Ravens – 3, over/under at 48 1/2
• FanDuel: Ravens – 2 1/2, over/under at 47 1/2
• Bet365: Ravens – 3, over/under 48

Since John Harbaugh’s 2008 Baltimore arrival, the Ravens have produced a league-best .815 winning percentage (22-5) in home primetime games. Baltimore’s 44-21 record in overall primetime games since 2008 also yields the NFL’s best winning percentage (.677).

Tony Lombardi

For years we’ve used a dart board to accompany these “Bold Predictions” posts and lately, that’s pretty much me and my predictions – only I’m blindfolded. It has been a rough patch but fortunately, I’m not doing as poorly with my Bet 365 app. But I digress…

I don’t know what Ravens team will show up. I don’t know what Lamar Jackson will trot out onto the field. I don’t know how Drake Maye is going to perform under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. But as the title says, these are BOLD PREDICTIONS so here goes.

• Everyone asks, “What’s wrong with Lamar?” I don’t think the answer is that simple but, in this game, there will be opportunities for Lamar to take off and run and in this game, and he will. LJ8 carries it 8 times for 75 yards and a score. He will throw for less than 200 yards, 90+ of which go to Zay Flowers who also chalks up a score. Mark Andrews adds a score from deep in the red zone as does Patrick Ricard.
• Derrick Henry will run into some tough sledding and could use the assistance of Dasher, Comet and Blixen but instead he only has Vorhees and Faalele and consequently, he’ll be limited to just 60 yards on 15 carries. His former head coach Mike Vrabel has a little kryptonite for The King. Keaton Mitchell adds 40 yards on 5 carries.
• The Ravens offense has struggled in the red zone and ranks 31st in the league in RZ success rate (44%). On Sunday they’ll go 3 for 3 against the NFL’s worst red zone defense (75%).
• Kyle Hamilton will present some challenges for Maye who will struggle at times to figure out the Ravens unicorn. The Ravens get to Maye for a strip sack and an INT both influenced by Hamilton.
• The bright spot for the Patriots offense will be TreVeyon Henderson who hits pay dirt twice while eclipsing the century mark on the ground. But it won’t be enough.

The Ravens keep their AFC North title hopes alive as their dub combined with a Steelers loss in Detroit renders the Week 17 game in Green Bay meaningless. The NFL then announces that the Steelers at Ravens will be on Sunday Night Football to wrap up the regular season.

Ravens 31, Patriots 24

Kevin McNelis

The Ravens have historically done pretty well in home prime time games, but their last one featured them getting thoroughly outplayed by an inferior team. That’s not to say that they can’t improve, but they’re facing off against a Patriots team with one of the best records in the league, and New England still has something to play for after losing to Buffalo last week. The Pats are pushing to capture their division, and you’re going to see it in the way they show up this week.

— Unless something changes drastically in the last few weeks of the season, I think Drake Maye has deservedly locked up the MVP. Some of that comes from his development as a passer, but no small part of that production has been the improvement of the Pats O-line as the season has progressed, even with injuries contributing. Based on Baltimore’s struggles establishing pressure, the Pats get the ball out quickly and limit the Ravens to 2 sacks on the day, one of which comes from Tavius Robinson.

— TreVeyon Henderson has been a legit weapon all year. Early in the game, Baltimore will stack the box to try to contain him, leading to some vulnerability through the air. By the second half, the Pats begin to feed Henderson to kill the clock, and he rips a long run against a rundown defense for 50+ and a TD.

— The Ravens will fight back offensively, and they’ll take advantage of some deep strikes including a long throw to DHop for a score. Despite their best efforts, a late comeback bid falls short as the O-line gives up too many pressures, and a strip sack on Lamar seals the deal.

Patriots 24 Ravens 17

Rob Shields

It wouldn’t be a week of practice if Lamar wasn’t missing a day. It needs to stop and he needs to start playing through this stuff.

Now, with that said, I am oddly confident about this game.

New England’s run defense has been an issue as of late. They are battling a lot of injuries as well.

Drake Maye is excellent and I think you worry about the Pats out-coaching the Ravens but overall, I think the Ravens have this game.

They also could have some extra motivation if Pittsburgh loses in Detroit. That result combined with a Ravens win means Week 17 can be treated like a bye week.

I look for the ravens to run the ball often and Lamar be efficient passing the ball.

Ravens 27 Patriots 17

Derek Arnold

Mike Vrabel terrifies me. He doesn’t exactly have the Ravens’ number per se – they did win a playoff game in Nashville after all, and the Harbs-Vrabel matchups are 3-3. But his defenses have effectively slowed down Lamar Jackson-led offenses, and we all still have PTSD from that 2019 playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium.

Other than the playoff win, Harbs’ other semi-recent victory over the Titans came when he had a pretty clearly superior team (2023). I’m probably cherry-picking, but I just trust Vrabel to have his team more prepared than John. Word is New England is practicing in full pads for the first time since camp. That kinda thing.

That said, I’m gonna slide the purple glasses on. How about a minor Festivus Miracle?

— Leading 23-17, the Pats are trying to kill the clock, but face a 3rd-and-8 just ahead of the two-minute warning. Dre’Mont Jones tips the Drake Maye pass at the line of scrimmage, and Kyle Hamilton, lurking in a short zone, picks it off, returning it inside the 15. Baltimore exorcises some red zone demons and punches it in, with Derrick Henry delivering the final blow to his old team, a touchdown with under 30 seconds to play.

Ravens 24 Patriots 23

Oh, and go Lions.

Nick Polinsky

If Baltimore wins this week and Pittsburgh falls to Detroit, the Week 17 games won’t matter and it’ll officially mean the Ravens at Steelers Week 18 game will decide the division.

The Patriots own the 5th best run defense in the league, so they certainly match up well on the defensive side of the ball. This to me has to be a game where Lamar takes over and plays at his typical superstar level.

The 11-3 Patriots are a solid team, but they haven’t truly been battle tested this season. Outside of Buffalo, their toughest opponents have been Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. That’s not to say that Drake Maye hasn’t been extremely impressive, but he hasn’t necessarily gone through the wringer either.

I think Baltimore keeps the positive momentum going and finally gets their home prime time win this season,

Ravens 27 Patriots 24 

Jason Woolbert

New England is hurting after their loss to Buffalo, and Mike Vrabel has them practicing in full pads for the first time since the regular season began.  They are banged up a bit with Will Campbell and Milton Williams on IR, and several players listed as DNP on Thursday, but it’s not that bad for this time of year.   The Ravens are going to get their best effort, and that is bad news.  Let’s hope they have also had a good week of practice, building on the momentum from the Bengals game.

Their run defense looks suspect without Williams in the middle.  The Bills ran over them.  That’s what the Ravens need to do, and everyone knows it, including the Patriots.  Mike Vrabel is a defensive-minded coach and the Patriots are overachieving on that side of the ball with a top ten unit in both points and yards.  The story is the same as it always is – the Ravens will win or lose based mainly on turnovers and penalties.  The Patriots are too disciplined not to take advantage of those mistakes.

What people may not point out is that while Buffalo ran for 168 yards and 2 TD, New England ran for 246 yards and 4 TD.  The Ravens pride themselves on stopping the run first and they will be tested.  The team doesn’t have a star receiver, rather an array of competent pass catchers that are probably better than what the Ravens have top-to-bottom.  Then of course you have Drake Maye at QB.  Ultimately I’m not as concerned about the Ravens defense as I am about the offense, and that’s not something I expected to type after the first few weeks of the season.

The Ravens are not playing better at home this season, so that’s not much of an advantage.  I don’t believe it’s going to be pretty.  I think there will be many field goals.  I think some players are going to leave the game hurt.  This game is much more important for the Ravens’ survival than the Patriots, but the way this season has gone, the burden of proof is on them.

Patriots 19 Ravens 16

Jared Pinder

I guess it all comes down to this, then. After last week’s victory, the Ravens are now in must-win territory for the final three games of the season (likely either this one or Green Bay, AND in Pittsburgh). The Patriots are coming off a disappointing loss to the Bills, where they blew the game late and lost their chance to win the division, so they will come out with some fire.

— Lamar has a decent game but turns it over, an interception.

– Derrick Henry can’t get going, and is held under 100 yards.

– The defense struggles to contain the Patriots’ run game and gets gassed.

Ravens season comes to an end.

Patriots 35 Ravens 21

Vermont Raven

The Ravens are on the brink; they can’t count on the Steelers losing and helping them out.  Plus, IF the Steelers do drop the game to the Lions, and the Ravens manage to beat the Patriots, they will guarantee that they will be playing for the division title in Pittsburgh Week 18, giving them an option to rest starters against Green Bay.  If the Steelers pull the upset in Detroit, Baltimore will need to win out to win the division (I don’t think the Steelers will lose to the Browns in Week 17).

Despite being an impressive 11-3, I don’t believe the Patriots are a juggernaut and have not really been tested often; they have had an extremely easy schedule.  They have three wins over teams currently .500 or better: Panthers (7-7), Buccaneers (7-7), and Bills (10-4).  That being said, they are still a formidable opponent.  But, I look for the Ravens to find a way to win, led by their defense.

— Ravens rush for 100+ yards and 1 rushing TD.

— Lamar throws for about 200 yards and 1 passing TD.

— The Ravens’ struggles in the red zone continue, resulting in a total of 3 Tyler loop field goals.

— On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense holds strong, particularly in the red zone.  The Patriots score 1 TD and 3 field goals.

— The Ravens defense forces 2 turnovers.

Ravens 23 Patriots 16

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