Best NFL Betting Strategy and Key Methods to Try

There is no single best way to bet on NFL games, after all, it’s designed to be fun and to add some skin to the game you are watching. Still, many hardcore fans have tried to make this work or turn the betting hobby into a career. However, this sport and its gambling counterpart are immensely popular, as almost 30 billion dollars a year is spent on NFL bets. So, it’s hard to tell who is a legitimate pro and who is just an average bettor who thinks they are good at it.

Out of fear of sounding too pretentious, we’ll start this guide with a caveat – there isn’t a single NFL sports betting strategy that works 100%. Everything we say should be taken with a grain of salt, and you should never wager more money than you are ready to lose. The reason we are going over these tips and tricks is that they’ve seen more success compared to some other techniques. So, let’s get to it.

Fundamentals of NFL Betting Systems

There are so many betting markets that are available in sportsbooks, but the basic ones that all pros use are moneyline (outright winner), point spread, and totals. Prop bets can also be very appealing, but that will always be situational, and there are no universally applicable tips that you can use. As stated, most strategies revolve around the fundamental bets, and around a single match per slip.

Now, this doesn’t mean you should never place accumulators or make wagers with unrealistic odds. You absolutely should, as sportsbooks often offer bonuses specifically for these types of wagers. Many gamblers read reviews on magyarkaszinooldalak.com so that they can find operators with favourable bonus terms, payout times, and quality casino games on top of betting options. In many instances, casinos and sportsbooks want you to have a positive starting experience, and they will allow you to make these accumulator bets risk-free. If you lose, who cares, and if you win, then congratulations.

The reason why basic wagers are so important is that they are likely to undergo big changes. They adapt based on player activity and aren’t solely defined based on statistical chance. So it’s possible to find amazing odds, even if two teams are relatively evenly matched. So a good NFL betting system will take this into account.

Using Data and NFL Betting Statistics

Now, when you are comparing two teams, it’s important to consider certain offensive and defensive metrics.

• EPA per play – This indicates scoring potential, and it’s a neat way to gauge how effective the team’s offense is.
• Red zone effectiveness – Tells you whether the team finishes with touchdowns or field goals
• Yards per play – Indicates how many yards on average the team can gain per play
• Yard per route run –  Outlines the quality of the receiver and team’s passing game
• Tackle for loss and Sack and pressure rate – Allows you to gauge how strong the team is defensively and whether they are good at disrupting plays
• Defensive EPA – Tells if the defence is likely to prevent opponents from scoring

Now, don’t solely focus on these, as teams will likely perform differently when you take into account home advantage or away disadvantage. But the point is that when you are wagering on outright winners, these would be the crucial stats to consider.

How to Bet on NFL Games with Advanced Strategies

Numbers tell one story, but we’ve seen time and again how match outcomes defy our expectations. So don’t put all your eggs in the statistics basket, focus on finding good deals.

Contrarian Betting

Public opinion can be swayed, and it’s not uncommon that when a team is considered an underdog, most people will bet against it. So, as the odds change, you can get payouts that go as high as 5 to 1, 10 to 1, or even higher. This won’t mean that the opponent doesn’t stand a chance; it only means that bookies want to incentivize users to back the other option as well. If the previously mentioned stats don’t look so bad, and the underdog has a legitimate chance to win, then take that bet. Backing the crowd favorite at this point won’t make a lot of sense as the payout is small, and you are taking a bigger risk.

Live/In-Game Wagering

Even when you’ve used stats and data to identify good matchups for placing bets, it’s unavoidable to have doubts. Well, this is where live wagers can come into play as a form of insurance. The great thing about in-play wagering is that odds constantly shift depending on the game state.

So, when one team gets the advantage, the odds will be updated in real time. So, if the team you backed takes the lead, use that as a golden opportunity. At that time, the odds for the opposing team will go up, and you should make a small bet that acts as insurance. So, if the other team turns the situation around and your original bet fails, the live bet will likely cover the cost of the slip, and you’ll even get some extra money on top.

Make Teaser Bets

Finally, if you plan to wager on multiple matches, then make sure to take advantage of teaser bets. In essence, you place NFL over-under key numbers bets, or even place multiple spread bets, and then wait. If your point spread doesn’t seem likely, then simply reduce it. In some instances, the sportsbook will do this automatically, but make sure you read the rules. What’s the catch, though? Well, your payout is reduced as you are changing your wager to a safer option. Also, you can still lose a spread bet if the other team wins.

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