Chicago Cubs young stars projected to have disastrous 2026

The Chicago Cubs had a disappointing end to their baseball year, going down in Game 5 of the NLDS to the Milwaukee Brewers after battling their way up from a 0-2 deficit in the series. But the season, as a whole, was a positive, filled with pleasant surprises.

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Among those pleasant surprises were a handful of young talents who emerged as high-end major league assets.

23-year-old Pete Crow-Armstrong, specifically, earned acclaim as a superstar-in-the-making as he showcased his multi-tool ability. Before the All-Star break, he had already crushed 25 home runs and had notched 71 RBIs, while stealing 27 bases, as he displayed an almost superhuman defense in center field.

Cade Horton started 2025 as the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, regarded as at least one year away from being major league-ready. Pitching injuries in early May led to him being brought up from Iowa much sooner than expected. The then-23-year-old performed solidly and impressed with his poise and confidence. Then, he blew up and became truly dominant. With a 1.03 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break, he earned recognition as the best pitcher in all of baseball during that stretch, until a rib injury ended his season in late September.

From pleasant surprises to harsh realities

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PCA and Horton were just two of several other pleasant surprises in 2025.

But, if projections are correct, a storybook 2025 may give way to some harsh reality in 2026.

FanGraphs’ Steamer projections paint a picture of widespread regression among Cubs’ stars, but the outlook is especially dismal when it comes to the team’s young talent.

Crow-Armstrong, for example, is projected to finish 2026 with his power numbers way down from last season, forecast to finish the year with just 20 home runs and 64 RBIs. His projected .251 batting average is just a tick higher than his .247 average in 2025.

Horton is projected to have an even more prodigious fall from grace with an 8-9 record and 4.33 ERA in 2026 after an 11-4, 2.67 ERA rookie season.

Other reality checks?

First baseman Michael Busch, who affirmed his status as a big league star with 34 home runs on 90 RBIs last season, is projected to hit just 24 dingers with 65 RBIs in 2026.

Nico Hoerner, who many feel is the Cubs’ best second baseman since Ryne Sandberg, performed well all season, but was especially red-hot down the stretch and in the playoffs. In 2026, FanGraphs projects him to hit .284, thirteen points below his .297 mark last year.

Daniel Palencia, who came up from the minors early in the season and earned his spot as the team’s closer, is projected to finish 2026 with a 3.61 ERA following a 2.91 ERA in 2025.

Chicago Cubs are downward-bound across the board

This predicted downward-bound trajectory is not just among the team’s young stars. The analytics company has targeted everybody as due for regression in the coming year. Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ are all projected to have diminished power numbers. Pitchers Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon, meanwhile, are all predicted to have significantly elevated ERAs from their 2025 showings.

Third baseman Matt Shaw is actually the only Cub projected to have a better year in 2026. That improvement, however, is minimal– a .242 batting average over 2025’s .226, with 15 home runs versus last year’s 13.

It should be pointed out that while FanGraphs’ projections are generally regarded as one of the most accurate and reliable projection systems around, they are not infallible. Their Cubs projections ahead of the 2025 season, for example, were similarly conservative, bordering on pessimistic. (They projected PCA with just 20 home runs, for example).

However, there’s plenty of food for thought in FanGraphs’ numbers. Crow-Armstrong probably isn’t as good as his first-half performance last year and certainly not as bad as his second-half showing. There’s also the question of how much an absent Kyle Tucker will diminish the collective offensive effort. On the pitching side, there’s reason to believe that Horton, Boyd, and Palencia overperformed and are due for a more humbling season this coming year.

As is always the case, time will tell. March/April is still a long ways away.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-projections-2026-pca-horton-shaw-palencia