Hot Takes on a Football Sunday

If you tune into some of the national media podcasts and/or cable sports talk shows, you know by now that Lamar Jackson is the clubhouse leader for MVP in 2024. Lamar is throwing the ball better and he looks leaner, faster and more elusive than he did during his MVP season of 2023. And there’s more…

In the graph below, the intent is to illustrate how quarterbacks across the league are protected and when protected, what is their ADOT, average depth of throw. Lamar and the Ravens offensive line are doing quite well. The results of the league’s No. 1 offense, support that.

QB Time To Throw & ADOT pic.twitter.com/CrmKgnyOpZ

— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) October 16, 2024

Lamar’s yards-per-completion are third-best in the league at 12.5, up from 11 in 2023. His completion percentage is 67.23%, up from 65.82% last season. And his cerebral mastery of the Ravens offense has improved as well. He’s picked up some admirers along the way, including this former Commanders tight end who know covers the team.

Logan Paulsen who is an analyst for the #Commanders flagship Big 100 @BIG100Radio & is part of the team’s official coach’s show, “The Gameplan”, was on the sidelines last Sunday when the Ravens hosted Washington. He was quite impressed w/ Lamar’s mastery of the #Ravens offense. pic.twitter.com/NmSVkA8oUR

— Tony Lombardi (@RSRLombardi) October 20, 2024

The Ravens offense, engineered by Todd Monken, is really coming together nicely. Lamar is now in year 2 with Monken. He’s more familiar and comfortable with the playbook. He has more weapons at his disposal (and another that will be added by December in the form of Keaton Mitchell). The load he’s had to carry running the ball isn’t as heavy with the imposing force of Derrick Henry at his disposal. And then there’s the burgeoning rapport with each of his playmakers.

Simply put, the Ravens offense is a major headache for opposing defensive coordinators.

Wheelin’ & Dealin’

The NFL trade deadline is 4PM on Tuesday, November 5. Isn’t there something else going on that day? But I digress.

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta will leave no stone unturned as part of an effort to improve the roster. Some have suggested that the Ravens bolster their pass rush. Others have said they should add another corner. There are some who believe the Ravens need to add another receiver because after Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, the pickings get slim. And let’s be honest, no one will ever mistake Bateman’ durability for that of Cal Ripken, Jr.

In 2019 the Ravens made a trade to land Marcus Peters who had an immediate impact. In 2022 EDC landed Roquan Smith and although he hasn’t been the impact player he was from 2022-23, the trade has been quite a success. The hope is that the Ravens improve in some way, regardless of the position.

Now there’s been chatter about the Ravens cap space or lack thereof, limiting their ability to go and get a player. The reality is, if the Ravens really want to get a player, EDC can figure out a way to massage the cap and fit the player or players in. The real challenge is determining whether the draft capital that they’ll need to sacrifice to make a deal is worthy.

A Couple of Trade Targets?

The Ravens have stockpiled some draft capital for the 2025 NFL Draft. Besides their own 7 picks, the Ravens are expecting four comp picks for the loss of free agents who signed elsewhere. The expected picks are a 4th, two 5ths and a 6th.

Now I get the thought that improving the offense has an added benefit of improving the defense. A high scoring team can push an opponent’s offense into the realm of one dimension, i.e. throwing the football. The Peyton Manning-led Colts would pile up points, get a commanding lead, and the send the dogs after the quarterback with reckless abandon while completely disregarding the run.

But given the weapon nicknamed, “The King” and the cold weather months approaching, the run game coupled with a better defense makes more sense to me. Plus, complementary talent on that side of the ball might be a tad more affordable.

One name rumored to be hitting the market is Marshon Lattimore. His name practically spells Baltimore. Lattimore would boost the secondary and according to RSR’s capologist Brian McFarland, the cost is not prohibitive. In fact, it’s rather affordable.

Lattimore’s salary this season is only $1.21M, so a trade today would only hit the cap for $800K for the balance of the season. The 28-year-old corner is under contract through 2026 with base salaries of $16M (2025) and $16.5M (2026). The team could cut him loose after the 2024 season if they prefer to keep Brandon Stephens, a pending UFA, instead. That said, a secondary consisting of Lattimore, Stephens, Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins in 2024 might represent an embarrassment of riches.

Another defender the Ravens could add is a familiar face – Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was second to Nnamdi Madubuike (13) in sacks last season with 9 ½. He’s owed just $1.27M (as of this writing) for the balance of 2024. In 2025, Clowney is due $9.8M but only $2M is guaranteed. If they want to keep Clowney in 2025, EDC could restructure or extend Clowney to reduce the load on the 2025 cap and if not, they could part ways and take the $2M lump which isn’t unreasonable. The market value for Lattimore and Clowney in terms of draft capital, is thought to be a 3rd and a 5th.

The Weakest Link

The way I see it, the Ravens weakest link is without question the position of safety. After the first 2-3 weeks, I would have said the offensive line is the team’s biggest obstacle standing in the way of success. But let’s give credit where it’s due. That unit has really come a long way.

I don’t know what his resume says, but Kyle Hamilton is not a safety. He’s just an All-Pro defender. The true safeties are two players that don’t make me feel safe at all – Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson. They actually scare the bejeezus out of me.

Jackson looks like a failed experiment. It’s not hard to imagine Ar’Darius Washington replacing him at some point this season, preferably sooner than later. But the Ravens really need to get something more out of Williams. His play has fallen off a cliff and given his history, the decline in his play is a real head-scratcher.

“Obviously, just like a lot of our guys, [Marcus] can play better, and he knows that, and he’s working at that. My biggest thing for him is, ‘You’re back there for a reason. We brought you here for a reason. You’ve made many impact plays in this league, not just at your previous spot, but for us,’ and he’s made plays this year. ‘Just have that confidence. You’re one of the top free safeties in the league; go be that,’ and that’s what our conversations have been [like]. Honestly, up to this point, I think this has been his best week of practice during the season so far. He’s got his hands on the football, [and] he’s made some plays that we’re accustomed to seeing, so I’m excited. I think we’re going to see Marcus Williams really turn it up in these next couple of games.” ~ Zach Orr

Let’s hope that Orr is right, and Williams can play to the level of his contract. THAT might be better than any trade DeCosta can make before the deadline.

[Related Article: Battle Plans v. Tampa]

Defending The Perimeter

As much as the Ravens safeties have struggled, their corners are playing very well and soon they’ll add another baller to the mix in the form of slot corner Arthur Maulet.

Stephens shadows receivers as well as anyone. If he could learn to look for the ball on time, “B-Steve Island” might emerge – a place where no quarterback wants to go. And while he might not be earning the nickname “Fruit Punch” anymore for his previously established ability to punch and force fumbles, Marlon Humphrey has been sticky in coverage. The chart below suggests the duo is among the league’s best.

How often CBs have played in single coverage and their separation prevented on those plays pic.twitter.com/fugwiELBWf

— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) October 16, 2024

A Ravens defense with Smith, Williams and Humphrey playing at their opportunistic best, with the potential additions of Lattimore and Clowney…AND that offense…wow. Better book that room in The Big Easy now.

And in Pittsburgh

We will forever be paying attention to the Steelers. That’s what rivals do. And this week, the Steelers are confronted with a dilemma that if not managed properly, could undermine the team’s locker room. This week the hometown team for the Yinzers, despite sharing the lead in the AFC North with the Ravens, are handing the reins of the offense over to a new quarterback, Russell Wilson.

Why not stick w Justin Fields?
Whole answer from #Steelers Mike Tomlin pic.twitter.com/TNx1d7piXx

— 93.7 The Fan (@937theFan) October 15, 2024

Now I get that the Steelers may have made a verbal commitment to Wilson once they signed him, that he would be the defacto starter. But Wilson had to have some inkling that a threat to his job security entered Steelers headquarters when a week after agreeing to terms with Pittsburgh, the Steelers traded for Justin Fields.

To get Fields the Steelers gave up a conditional 6th-round pick that could become a 4th if Fields plays 51% of the team’s offensive snaps in 2024. Could that be the driving force behind Wilson getting the start or is it more about Mike Tomlin honoring his word?

I guess it’s time to let Russ cook.

But if he doesn’t, the Steelers season could fry.

Ravens Media

The Baltimore Ravens Media group does an amazing job, and their efforts have been rewarded with hardware for The Castle’s mantle time and time again. The group’s series “Ravens Wired” is must-see weekly programming during the season and their social media team led by Garrett Downing is outstanding. Among my personal favorites are the posts by Ryan Mink highlighting player performances via the All-22 footage.

Now I get that as the team’s official media group, their intent, at least in part, is to promote the team and feature the squad’s good qualities. Some might criticize them for being homers but my question to such critics is, “What do you expect?” In many ways they are a promotional vehicle for the team. Their job is to seek and accentuate the silver lining in any way possible.

But when I saw this post from Mink, I nearly sent out an SOS. I thought he must be drowning in all that purple Kool Aid.

-28th pass TDs allowed
-31st pass yds/g
-32nd pass 1Ds
-24th TD%
-23rd TO%
-29th yds/comp

All while spending the 9th most on defense. Tight windows don’t matter when they catch it & score anyway.

— ð—¡ð—˜ð—©ð—˜ð—¥ð— ð—¢ð—¥ð—˜ (@EdgarAllenOmar) October 15, 2024

I suppose if you look hard enough, you can find a way to explain away anything negative. But you can veer off the path of reality and Mink’s windows in this case don’t amount to much more than window dressing on a bad pass defense, lipstick on a pig.

Hush Little Brady, Don’t Say a Word

I hope that Fox Sports kept the receipt on Tom Brady’s $300M broadcasting contract. While I think he’s done a decent job and his work ethic and perfectionism will undoubtedly drive him to be better, he’s not the instant success that Tony Romo was when he first joined Jim Nantz on CBS. You know, before he became the No.1 fan boy of Patrick Mahomes.

But now Brady’s improvement comes with a handicap. He’s no longer capable of being fully objective. Censorship has reared its ugly head due to Brady’s 10% stake in the Las Vegas Raiders.

Who knows, it might all work out for Brady. Maybe he’ll send secret camera crews to team practices. Maybe he’ll bug the conference room during broadcast production meetings. Maybe he’ll get the Patriots ball boy to place some bets for him.

And maybe Fox will be looking for a rebate.

Brady and his business partner Tom Wagner paid over $200 million for that shared 10% stake in the Raiders, a team worth $7.8 billion. I’m no math major but I think Tawmy Boy will be ok.

Hey, does anyone know if Brady still gets in alimony from Gisele?

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