Ravens Must Limit YAC Against Godwin, Tampa

Defense

Make the Bucs One-Dimensional

Zach Orr has designed the Ravens defense to take away the run and force opponents to be one-dimensional on offense. Through the first five weeks of the season, they did just that, but the best rushing offense they faced was the 11th-ranked Bills, who never got a chance to get into their run game after Baltimore’s 21-point first half. Then came the Commanders’ second-ranked rushing attack, the first true test for the Ravens run defense this season. They passed with flying colors, holding Washington to just 52 yards on the ground.

However, the Commanders were without leading rusher Brian Robinson Jr., while the Buccaneers will be riding the hot hands of Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving this week, who averaged almost eight yards per carry in Week 6. Toss in four carries for 31 yards by Sterling Shepard and 29 yards on three carries by Baker Mayfield, and the Bucs have one of the most diverse, explosive run games in the league.

Much of their success has come out between the tackles (15.9% explosive rush rate, fifth-highest) and out of the shotgun (+0.18 EPA/carry, third-highest; +75 rushing yards over expected, fifth-highest). However, Baltimore has not allowed an explosive run between the tackles this season, and their 28.6% success rate and -0.29 EPA/rush allowed against designed shotgun run attempts are both top-three marks.

While Tampa Bay won’t give up on their shotgun or between-the-tackles run game, they will likely try to attack outside the tackles from under center like they did against the Saints last week.

All of TB’s explosive runs against the Saints defense (minus one Baker scramble) came from condensed formations with most being under center. Even if it wasn’t by design, they all bounced outside off the left tackle to force an unblocked CB to make a play, mostly Lattimore. This… pic.twitter.com/K2rOHtnDca

— Robby (@Robby_NFL) October 16, 2024

Even if they stick with interior runs early, that will likely be a set-up to draw the Ravens into more stacked boxes against condensed formations before attacking the edges to force Baltimore’s defensive backs to make a tackle.

The Ravens’ secondary has tackled well this season, but Nate Wiggins will need to step up against outside run and avoid easy missed tackles. Instead of diving at ballcarriers’ feet, he needs to wrap up and give his teammates enough time to come over and finish the play.

Move Mayfield Off His Spot

The Buccaneers’ interior offensive line went from the highest pressure rate allowed (13.4%) in Weeks 1-3 to the lowest (3.5%) since Week 4. Tampa Bay’s interior trio of Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, and Cody Mauch have kept Mayfield safe in the pocket over the last few weeks, but they’re a young group who could struggle against better competition.

Enter Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones, who have anchored the Ravens’ defense with several stellar performances this year. They’ll need to put together another strong day to collapse the pocket and move Mayfield off his spot.

Against the Commanders, the interior rushers held gaps while the edge rushers contained Jayden Daniels on the outside to keep him from breaking loose. In Tampa, the Ravens can be more aggressive, enabling their interior rushers to attack downhill, while the edges can be freed up to use their entire array of pass rushing moves, especially the inside counters that have been effective this season.

Mayfield is still a sneaky threat to run – eight of his 15 scrambles have come in the last two weeks for a total of 72 yards – but forcing him to hold onto the ball will disrupt the Bucs’ quick short passing game. Mayfield’s 2.52-second average time to throw is the lowest in the NFL, and he ranks in the top 2 in the NFL in touchdowns, yards per attempt, and success rate on passes under 10 air yards.

Orr has kept the Ravens to a 21.0% blitz rate this year, the seventh-lowest in the NFL, so Baltimore will keep trying to generate pressure with four. In the absence of free rushers, the defensive line will need to execute stunts and twists to manufacture some success against the Bucs’ young interior OL.

Stop Them at the Catch Point

Tampa Bay’s 968 yards after the catch and +214 YAC over expected both lead the NFL, representing a whopping 65% of Mayfield’s overall passing production this season. The Ravens, meanwhile have allowed +154 YACOE this year, the third most in the league.

The matchup is obvious: limit the Bucs’ YAC – but how?

The Ravens should have two priorities. The first is attacking the ball at the catch point, something Brandon Stephens has struggled with this year.

Make no mistake: Stephens has been brilliant in coverage, averaging 1.7 yards of separation when targeted (the NFL’s fourth-lowest) with less than a yard of separation on half of his targets. His performance against the Commanders highlighted his ability to stick with receivers, but also his inability to get his head around and locate the ball in the air. Against a Bucs’ passing game predicated on timing and rhythm, he needs to develop a better feel for when the ball is coming so that all of his excellent work in coverage doesn’t go to waste.

But if the Ravens aren’t able to break up passes, they need to make sure the Bucs’ wideouts can’t get free after the catch. On the outside, that means using the sidelines and preventing cutbacks towards open space in the middle of the field. Over the middle, the Ravens’ safeties and linebackers need to focus on containing after the catch instead of charging downhill to force the Bucs to look for space laterally.

The biggest threat by far is Chris Godwin, who has returned to a slot-focused role after aligning more out wide last season. Godwin’s 335 YAC lead the league this season, and his +112 YAC over expected rank third. He demolished the Saints after the catch last week:

Chris Godwin gained 105 of his 125 receiving yards after the catch across 11 receptions, his most YAC in a game since Week 8, 2021 (which also came against the Saints, 105 YAC).

Godwin currently leads the NFL in yards after catch this season (335).#TBvsNO | @Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/tO6p6VJ8sB

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 13, 2024

Marlon Humphrey will be Godwin’s primary matchup in the slot. He has been excellent this season, especially as a tackler after the catch. Even if he allows Godwin to make several receptions, Humphrey can still have a huge impact on the game by limiting the veteran receiver’s YAC potential and keep the Bucs in negative down-and-distance situations.

Offense

Attack the Sidelines

The Ravens play yet another bad run defense in Week 7, though the Bucs’ structure is quite different to what they’ve seen earlier this year.

Baltimore won’t have to force Tampa Bay into base personnel and stacked boxes; their 34% stacked box rate is the second-highest in the NFL and they will frequently put three down linemen on the field. However, they’re still allowing +0.09 EPA/rush, the third highest in the league, as well as 1.82 yards before contact per attempt and +0.83 rushing yards over expected per attempt, both bottom-10 figures.

That will set up another big day for Derrick Henry on the ground. He has gashed opposing defenses this season, especially on toss plays that isolate him in space against defensive backs.

Derrick Henry on toss plays this season: 20 carries, 197 yards (9.9 per carry)
The rest of the NFL on toss plays: 4.4 yards per carry

Inside the NFL’s most explosive running play, and the players who make it all sing: https://t.co/JC2QYxfCnW pic.twitter.com/9QVYXGhZcL

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 16, 2024

Todd Monken’s success with toss plays starts with the design. He uses condensed formations to draw the opposing defense towards the line of scrimmage before using athletic blockers like Tyler Linderbaum and Isaiah Likely to clear the way downfield.

Monken has largely used toss plays in high-leverage situations later in the game, but he should consider pulling it out earlier against the Buccaneers to set up a fake-toss knockout blow in the second half.

Toss plays aren’t the only way the Ravens can attack the sidelines. Baltimore can also scheme up outside touches for Zay Flowers and Justice Hill using screens and motion to exploit the Bucs’ defense when they crowd the line of scrimmage.

Crush the Blitz

Screens and motion will also be an answer to Tampa Bay’s aggressive blitzing, a hallmark of their defense under Todd Bowles. They’ve ranked in the top-10 in blitz rate in every season since 2019, and are once again seventh-highest with a 33.3% blitz rate this year. In Bowles’ last matchup with Lamar Jackson in 2022, he blitzed him at a 44.2% clip, comparable to the 40.6% blitz rate Jackson faced last week against the Commanders,

Jackson has demolished the blitz this season, converting first downs on 53.3% of his plays against the blitz (third-highest) and taking sacks just 1.7% of the time (second-lowest). His ability to avoid sacks and extend plays with his legs against pressure has always been one of the hallmarks of his play, but he’s reached a new level by beating the blitz before the snap this year.

Jackson has excelled by identifying pressure packages pre-snap and making the right route and protection adjustments. That will be especially important against Bowles, who mixes his aggressive blitzes with sim pressures that drop outside linebackers into pass coverage. If Jackson can identify those situations, he can work favorable matchups and burn the Bucs’ blitzes.

But Tampa Bay’s blitz designs can be tricky to diagnose, making it unclear where the pressure is coming from, if it’s coming at all.

Another defensive twist for Bucs vs. Saints — both OLBs are out wide in coverage here, rushing three DLs. David blitzed, Saints threw screen for short gain. pic.twitter.com/x2yfFBK0DW

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) October 17, 2024

Jackson will need to use motion to pick out blitzers and isolate his playmakers in 1-on-1 matchups. He also needs to be confident enough in his run game to audible into runs against the blitz, especially designed QB runs that force blitzers to slow down and process at the mesh point.

When all else fails, Jackson should look for Rashod Bateman against the blitz. Bateman said this week that he’s “always open” and “will continue to be so for Lamar.” His separation statistics back up that statement, and his improved rapport with Jackson has led to improved returns for both this season. If Jackson is feeling the pressure, he should look for the often-open Bateman to continue to convert first downs through the air.

Isolate LBs in Coverage

The Bucs have given up 94 yards per game to tight ends over the last three weeks, and their linebackers have generally struggled in coverage this year.

The Ravens could once against use inverted formations to get wideouts on linebackers in the middle of the field, but this is also an opportunity for Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews to feast on defenders who can’t keep up with them.

Baltimore can continue to use heavy personnel to keep the Bucs in stacked boxes to defend against the run, giving them ample opportunities to flex their tight ends out wide.

Motioning the TEs from tight alignments can force the linebackers to split out with them and keep up in coverage. It’s also a way to exploit the simulated pressures run by Bowles; the Bucs’ outside linebackers have no chance at keeping up with Likely and Andrews in coverage.

Play action is another obvious answer here, especially if the Ravens can establish the run in the first half. The Bucs’ linebackers will get sucked in towards the line of scrimmage, giving Likely and Andrews a chance to burn them over the top with corners and deep crossers.

This could also be a big matchup for Justice Hill after a few quiet games. Similar to splitting the tight ends out wide, the Ravens can use mountain motion to get Hill in space against a linebacker in coverage, something he’s excelled at this year.

Justice Hill cooked him#RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/HcJNJvOMpC

— ð™•ð™–ð™˜ð™® (@NewEraZach) September 30, 2024

1-on-1 Matchup: YaYa Diaby vs. Roger Rosengarten

YaYa Diaby has emerged as an excellent young edge rusher in his second season, ranking seventh among edge rushers with 26 pressures so far this season, per PFF. His 2.27-second average time to pressure is one of the best in the league.

Removing unblocked pressures (and lowering threshold to 13+ pressures)

1) Chris Jones: 2.18s
2) Brian Burns: 2.21s
3) YaYa Diaby: 2.27s https://t.co/CQOPAwc27z pic.twitter.com/UXzyAcjWZW

— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) October 16, 2024

However, Diaby has struggled to convert his pressures into sacks, with just one on the year. He plays a vast majority of his snaps on the left side of the defense, leading to a Week 7 matchup with Ravens rookie right tackle Roger Rosengarten.

Rosengarten allowed just two pressures in rotational duties in Weeks 1 and 2, and shut out the Bills during his first career start in Week 4. He has struggled with the expansion of the Ravens’ dropback passing game over the last two weeks, though, allowing 10 total pressures, according to PFF. Many of Rosengarten’s allowed pressures have come in true passing situations that will give Diaby a chance for quick wins off the edge.

Diaby’s profile as a speed threat should play well into Rosengarten’s ability to fire off the snap and mirror opposing edge rushers. However, Diaby has developed his pass rush arsenal to become more than just a speed rusher.

How has Yaya Diaby developed into one of the most consistent pressure rushers in the NFL this season? He’s added an inside move. Using his length and power he creates vertical displacement then dips inside for the fastest path to the QB. pic.twitter.com/yrAosnQV9e

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 30, 2024

This is an excellent test of Rosengarten’s film study and football I.Q. He’ll need to maintain his positioning off the snap to prevent quick pressures by Diaby while remaining alert against inside counters in this 1-on-1 matchup.

All stats via NextGen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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