Four Downs: Man the Cannons for a Shootout!

The Baltimore Ravens take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 7. The last time the Ravens traveled to Tampa Bay, they walked away with a 27-22 victory over Tom Brady on a Thursday night. This game:

Prime time games at Raymond James Stadium have historically gone well for the Ravens, as it was the location of Baltimore’s historic Super Bowl XXXV win.

Can the Ravens keep the prime time magic going in the home of the red and pewter Buccaneers? It’s time for this week’s four downs.

First Down: Ready for a Shootout?

One could argue that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a more functional version of the Cincinnati Bengals. Like the Bengals, Tampa has two star receivers and a quarterback that can catch fire at any time. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both have five touchdowns, while Godwin leads the way with 511 yards on 43 receptions. Baker Mayfield (who has found the best home of his journeyman career) has 1,489 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions. At 29 years old, Mayfield may have snuck his way into being a franchise quarterback. While Mayfield threw three picks in his last outing, he also torched the Saints with four touchdown passes in a game where the Bucs scored 51 points.

The Ravens have the number one offense in the NFL and pick up an average of 453.7 yards per game. They’re again the number one rushing team in the NFL, 229 total yards in front of the next closest team. Baltimore is coming off a 30-23 game in which the Ravens had 484 total yards, 308 of which came from Lamar Jackson’s passing. The running back talent in this game is insane and it’s not only on the Ravens side with Derrick Henry and Justice Hill. Sean Tucker, the best running back many of you haven’t heard of, was just named the NFC Player of the Week after a huge burst of production against the Saints. He had 136 rushing yards and picked up 56 yards as a pass catcher. Oregon product Bucky Irving averages 5.7 yards per game, while Rachaad White can do some damage from the backfield as well.

The offensive talent should lead to a higher score and a good day for fantasy football guys. Let’s put it to you this way: the Ravens secondary has given me no reason to bench Mayfield or Evans from my squad.

(Note: Evans missed practice Thursday. If he is unable to go Monday, that would be a huge boon for Baltimore.)

Second Down: Make “Opportunistic” The Word Of The Day

When the Buffalo Bills looked to be gaining momentum, the Ravens defense stripped the ball from Josh Allen. When the Ravens couldn’t buy a stop against the Bengals, Marlon Humphrey came up with the interception to rule them all. The Ravens have forced at least one turnover in five of their six games. If the defense isn’t going to be the stingy unit that Mike Macdonald oversaw last season, Zachary Orr has to have his guys lean in on the word “opportunistic.”

Mayfield may be playing the best football of his career, but the Ravens know that they can work him for some valuable turnovers. Mayfield is a gunslinger who has a good – not great – arm. He tries to fit the football into tight windows. The Ravens have to do a good job competing with the Buccaneers receivers from a physicality perspective. Mayfield has a disadvantage with his smaller 6-1 build. Odafe Oweh, Kyle Van Noy, Nnamdi Madubuike and the rest of the pass rushers need to get their hands up and go after some of the lower releases of the football. The 50-50 ball has to come to the Ravens.

The Ravens secondary had positive growth against the Commanders and didn’t give up too many huge chunks in the passing game. Still, there are issues for the Ravens pass defense to resolve. The Buccaneers are going to make their plays and get their money’s worth out of their star receivers. Godwin especially is a demon in the middle of the field, somewhere the Ravens have struggled mightily.

If this is going to be a shootout between Jackson and Mayfield, the Ravens have to win the turnover battle.

Third Down: Offensive Efficiency Is the Key

I used to have a teacher that told me if I did my homework we’d get the snow day and if I didn’t we’d only get the two hour delay. The lesson was that preparation is key, and the Ravens have to be ready to win a high-scoring game. Hopefully, the Ravens can shut the Bucs down, but the offense has to make sure they did their homework. Offensive efficiency could be the difference in this game. The Ravens can’t get into bad third down situations and they can’t get off to a slow start. The Ravens have to apply pressure on the Buccaneers to be perfect.

That’s the kind of pressure the Ravens put on the Commanders. Think about it: after an early interception and Jordan Stout’s only punt of the day, the Ravens scored on a bunch of consecutive possessions. In the past four contest the Ravens’ lowest output is 28 points. They average just over 33 minutes with the football, meaning they’re winning the time of possession battle. If the Ravens get out to a strong start and hog the football the Buccaneers only have so many chances. They better make them count.

Fourth Down: Another Big Day for Zay?

When the Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay 36-30 in overtime a few weeks back, the Falcons passing game was incredible. Kirk Cousins had 509 yards and four touchdowns in that game. What does this have to do with the game on Monday? The Ravens should be able to recreate the success the Falcons had. The Falcons didn’t lean on the run game but Bijan Robinson averaged 5.1 yards against the Buccaneers. Henry is going to get his. One more interesting thing to pull from that NFC South showdown was that Darnell Mooney (the closest thing the Falcons have to a Zay Flowers) had nine grabs for 105 yards and two touchdowns. This could be a huge day for Flowers.

Flowers is coming off a game where he had nine receptions for 132 yards. It was his fourth game with at least six catches this season and his second game with over 100 yards. His speed and style of play gets him a lot of quick catches on high percentage plays and Todd Monken’s offense exploits this often.

Lions wideout Jameson Williams, had five catches for 79 yards against Tampa Bay. It’s not a monster game but those kind of performances are notable. The Buccaneers struggle against smaller speedy targets with the ability to dagger them with quick routes. Based on the matchup, Flowers could have his third straight game with 100 yards.

Okay, I prepped you for a shootout. Watch it become a defensive stalemate out of nowhere!

The post Four Downs: Man the Cannons for a Shootout! appeared first on Russell Street Report.

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