Chicago Cubs projected to win NL Central by a ton, but…

The Chicago Cubs seem comfortable and secure in the fact that they’re all set for the 2026 campaign. Although they lost a couple of key components from last year’s squad– right fielder Kyle Tucker and surprise bullpen asset Brad Keller– there’s reason to believe that they’ll will be fielding an all-around better team this coming season.

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The biggest pickups this offseason were, of course, free agent third baseman Alex Bregman and emerging powerhouse pitcher Edward Cabrera, who came via trade from the Miami Marlins. They also, however, signed four free agent relievers (Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Hunter Harvey) to fully restock a depleted bullpen.

Then, there’s the fact that ace Justin Steele should be back in the rotation before mid-season, recovered from elbow surgery that cut short his 2025 after just four starts. Oh yeah, and Chicago will get a full year of rookie phenom Cade Horton, who was, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball from July 1 to the late-September rib injury that shut down his year.

Given all of that (and more), there’s a lot of optimism in Chicago about where they stand and how well they’ll do this coming season.

PECOTA is bullish on the Cubs

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And the expert analysts seem to agree with that optimism.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) recently released their projections for 2026 and place the Cubs firmly atop the NL Central Division.

As of February 13, the respected projection system has the Cubs winning 89.7 games this coming season, a full nine games ahead of last season’s NL Central champs, the Milwaukee Brewers, and nearly ten games ahead of the third place Pittsburgh Pirates.

The reasons for that seem to be pretty obvious. Chicago’s additions make them a better team than they were last season while Milwaukee’s subtractions (Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin) would appear to make them a weaker team this coming season.

The failings of stats-based projection systems

It should be noted, though, that while PECOTA accurately projected the Cubs to finish with 91 wins prior to last season (they ended up winning 92), they had the Brewers finishing in second place, 11 games behind.

Stats-based projection systems never quite seem to account for the magic present in a team that works as a team and compels itself to be greater as a whole than the sum of its parts. The Brewers had that magic last season, riding a remarkable winning streak to finish five games ahead of the Cubs when the dust settled. It wouldn’t be wise to count them out again this coming season.

The PECOTA people aren’t the only ones picking the Cubs to take the NL Central. Actually, so far, pretty much all of those making projections for 2026 are going with Chicago. Fangraphs, for example, has the Cubs winning the division with 86 victories, three games ahead of the second place Pirates and 3.8 games ahead of the third place Brewers.

Reason for concern

Despite the consensus belief that the Cubs will take the NL Central, there’s legit reason to have doubt regarding the team’s ability to outperform last season’s squad.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly, and Nico Hoerner all had career offensive years in 2025, but all of them, with the exception of Hoerner, faded to varying degrees down the stretch. There’s no guarantee than any of these players will do as well in 2026.

The starting rotation, although rightfully lauded for his its depth, is also full of pitchers with significant (and recent) history of injury.

Closer Daniel Palencia, meanwhile, fell apart in the last two months of the season after an eye-catching run from Triple-A to high-leverage shutdown specialist. He’s being put right back into the closer spot after that ugly ending to last season.

But, regardless, there IS reason to look at 2026 with hope. The numbers clearly support that positivity. Soon enough, we’ll know whether what statistically SHOULD be, WILL be.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-projection-2026-pecota-brewers-nl-central-division