AFC Tiebreaker Picture: Week 11

OK, as we enter the final stretch of the season, I wanted to breakdown tiebreaker scenarios for each of the AFC playoff contenders. (I have included everyone except the Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, Browns, and Titans).

First, I will break down the division-tiebreaker scenarios.

AFC North

• First tiebreaker is head to head.
  1. Bengals are 1-0 over Steelers.
  2. Ravens have yet to play Steelers or Bengals.
• Second tiebreaker is division record.
  1. Bengals are 2-0 in division with wins at Browns and vs. Steelers.
  2. Ravens are 1-0 in division with win vs. Browns.
  3. Steelers are 1-1 in division with win vs. Browns and loss at Bengals.
• Third tiebreaker is record in “common games” The easiest way to break this down is to look at “uncommon games” (excluding h2h) with a worse record in “uncommon games” being better.
  1. Ravens are 0-3 in uncommon games (Losses to Chiefs, Texans, and Rams)
  2. Steelers are 1-2 in uncommon games (win vs. Colts, losses to Seahawks and Chargers)
  3. Bengals are 1-1 in uncommon games (win vs. Jaguars, loss vs. Broncos, Cardinals left to play)

This means the Ravens will win this tiebreaker if it comes to it. If the Bengals/Steelers are tied, the Steelers will win the tiebreaker unless the Bengals lose to the Cardinals.

• Fourth tiebreaker is record in conference games. The easiest way to look at this is to look at the number of losses to NFC teams (more losses to NFC teams mean fewer to AFC teams).  As noted above, this can only come into play between the Steelers and Bengals—and only if the Bengals lose to the Cardinals.
  1. Bengals have 4 NFC losses (Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears) with Cardinals remaining.
  2. Steelers have 2 NFC losses (Seahawks and Packers). They still have remaining games against the Bears and Lions.

In order for this tiebreaker to come into play, the Bengals would have to lose to the Cardinals.  The Bengals would then win this tiebreaker.

AFC West

• First tiebreaker is head to head.
  1. Chargers are 1-0 vs. Broncos and vs. Chiefs.
  2. Broncos are 0-1 vs. Chargers and have yet to play Chiefs
  3. Chiefs are 0-1 vs. Chargers and have yet to play Broncos
• Second tiebreaker is division record
  1. Chargers are 3-0 with wins vs. Chiefs, Broncos, and at Raiders
  2. Broncos are 1-1 with win vs. Raiders and loss at Chargers
  3. Chiefs are 1-1 with win vs. Raiders and loss “at” Chargers (Brazil)
• Third tiebreaker is record in “common games” The easiest way to break this down is to look at “uncommon games” (excluding h2h) with a worse record in “uncommon games” being better.
  1. Broncos are 2-0 (wins vs. Bengals and at Jets…have Packers remaining)
  2. Chargers are 3-0 (wins at Dolphins, vs Vikings, and vs. Steelers)
  3. Chiefs are 2-1 (wins vs. Ravens and Lions, loss at Bills)

Chiefs win tiebreaker vs. the Chargers.  Chiefs win tiebreaker vs. Broncos if the Broncos beat the Packers.

• Fourth tiebreaker is record in conference games. The easiest way to look at this is to look at the number of losses to NFC teams (more losses to NFC teams mean fewer to AFC teams).  As noted above, this can only come into play between the Chiefs and Broncos (if Broncos lose to Packers)
  1. Broncos have 0 NFC losses with remaining games vs. the Commanders and Packers (would have to lose to the Packers for this scenario to happen)
  2. Chiefs have 1 NFC loss (at Bills) with remaining game at Cowboys.

This means Chiefs can win via this tiebreaker if they lose to the Cowboys and the Broncos beat the Commanders (and lose to the Packers).  The Broncos can win via this tiebreaker if they lose to the Packers and the Commanders and the Chiefs beat the Cowboys).  Chiefs/Broncos can tie this tiebreaker if the Broncos lose to the Packers, but beat the Commanders and the Chiefs beat the Cowboys OR if the Broncos lose to the Commanders and the Packers and Chiefs lose to the Cowboys).

• Strength of Victory
  1. I will break this one down at a later date if it appears it might come into play

AFC East

• First tiebreaker is head to head.
  1. Patriots are 1-0 against Bills.
• Second tiebreaker is division record
  1. Patriots are 2-0 in division with wins at Dolphins and at Bills.
  2. Bills are 2-2 in division with wins at Jets and vs. Dolphins and losses vs. Patriots and at Dolphins.

This means the Patriots are in great shape to win via this tiebreaker even if the Bills get a split of head to head.  If the Patriots win both games vs. the Jets and the Dolphins, they will win this tiebreaker.

• Third tiebreaker is record in “common games” The easiest way to break this down is to look at “uncommon games” (excluding h2h) with a worse record in “uncommon games” being better.
  1. Patriots are 1-1 with win at Titans and loss vs. Raiders with Giants remaining.
  2. Bills are 1-0 with win vs. Chiefs and with games vs. Colts and Eagles remaining.
• Fourth tiebreaker is record in conference games. The easiest way to look at this is to look at the number of losses to NFC teams (more losses to NFC teams mean fewer to AFC teams).
  1. Patriots have 0 NFC losses with a game vs. the Giants remaining)
  2. Bills have 1 NFC loss (at Falcons) with games vs. the Eagles and at Cowboys remaining.
• Strength of Victory
  1. I will break this one down at a later date if it appears it might come into play

AFC South

• First tiebreaker is head to head.
  1. Colts have yet to play Jaguars or Texans
  2. Jaguars are 0-1 vs. Texans and have yet to play Colts
  3. Texans are 1-0 vs. Jaguars and have yet to play Colts
• Second tiebreaker is division record
  1. Colts are 2-0 in division with 2 wins vs. Titans (have yet to play Jaguars or Colts)
  2. Jaguars are 0-1 in division with loss at Texans.
  3. Texans are 2-0 in division with wins vs. Titans and Jaguars.
• Third tiebreaker is record in “common games” The easiest way to break this down is to look at “uncommon games” (excluding h2h) with a worse record in “uncommon games” being better.
  1. Colts are 2-1 with win vs. Dolphins and Falcons and loss at Steelers
  2. Jaguars are 1-1 with win vs. Panthers and loss at Bengals with Jets remaining.
  3. Texans are 1-1 with win vs. Ravens and loss vs. Buccaneers with Bills remaining.
• Fourth tiebreaker is record in conference games. The easiest way to look at this is to look at the number of losses to NFC teams (more losses to NFC teams mean fewer to AFC teams).
  1. Colts have 1 NFC loss (Rams) with Seahawks and 49ers remaining.
  2. Jaguars have 2 NFC losses (Seahawks, Rams) with Cardinals remaining.
  3. Texans have 3 NFC losses (Rams, Buccaneers, and Seahawks) with Cardinals remaining.
• Strength of Victory
  1. I will break this one down at a later date if it appears it might come into play.

WILD-CARD/Seeding Tiebreakers

First, it should be noted that the division tiebreaker is used to eliminate all but the highest remaining team from each division involved.  So, for example, if there was a three-way tie for a wildcard spot among the Chargers, Broncos, and Ravens, the AFC West division tiebreaker would be used first to eliminate either the Chargers or Broncos, then the tiebreaker would be used for that team vs. the Ravens.

After division tiebreaker, here are the steps:

• Head-to-head sweep. (if a three-team tie, after division tiebreaker, this is only applicable if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.
  • Colts win h2h over Broncos and Chargers. They lose h2h to Steelers.  They play at Chiefs later this season.
  • Broncos win h2h over Bengals and Texans. They play Jaguars later this season.
  • Patriots lose h2h to Steelers. They play Bengals and Ravens later this season.
  • Steelers win h2h vs. Patriots and Colts. They lose h2h vs. Chargers.  They play Bills later this season.
  • Chargers win h2h vs. Steelers. They lose h2h vs. Colts.  They play Jaguars later this season.
  • Bills win h2h vs. Ravens and Chiefs. They play Steelers and Bengals later this season.
  • Jaguars win h2h vs. Chiefs. They lose h2h vs. Bengals.  They play Broncos later this season.
• Best record in games played within the conference.
  • Colts have 1 NFC loss (Rams) with Seahawks and 49ers remaining.
  • Broncos have 0 NFC losses with remaining games vs. Commanders and Packers
  • Patriots have 0 NFC losses with game vs. Giants remaining)
  • Steelers have 2 NFC losses (Seahawks and Packers). They still have remaining games vs. Bears and Lions.
  • Chargers have 2 NFC losses (Giants, Commanders) with Eagles remaining.
  • Bills have 1 NFC loss (at Falcons) with games vs. Eagles and at Cowboys remaining.
  • Jaguars have 2 NFC losses (Seahawks, Rams) with Cardinals remaining.
  • Chiefs have 1 NFC loss (at Bills) with remaining game at Cowboys.
  • Texans have 3 NFC losses (Rams, Buccaneers, and Seahawks) with Cardinals remaining.
  • Ravens have 2 NFC losses (Lions, Rams) with Packers remaining.
  • Bengals have 4 NFC losses (Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears) with Cardinals remaining.
• Best record in common games, minimum of four.
  • I will break this one down at a later date if it appears it might come into play
• Strength of victory in all games.
  • I will break this one down at a later date if it appears it might come into play

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