Hot & Cold Map: Ravens vs. Texans

The Ravens appear to be in free fall after losing all three of their first quadrant games against top competition.  They have a 1-3 record and injuries are mounting.  They have a home game this week, but one against a Texans team that appeared to “get right” against the Titans last week.  This is pretty close to a must-win game for Baltimore, and they are the underdogs.

The Texans are one spot ahead of the Ravens in PFF team rankings, in position 20.  Despite their recent divisional win, they’re looking up at the Colts and Jaguars, having already lost to Jacksonville.  They have been asymmetrical, with their offense ranked 29^th in points and 25^th in yards and their defense ranked 1^st in points and 5^th in yards.  This will be a test of strength on strength and weakness on weakness.

Texans Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Texans play in 11 personnel 74.89% of the time, almost 3/4 of their snaps, which is fourth most in the NFL.  They haven’t done well there with an EPA of (-3.02), but it’s better than in 2RB sets (-4.58) and 2TE sets (-6.01).  The injury to FB Jakob Johnson has basically pulled the use of a fullback out of their playbook.

The narrative that C.J. Stroud is stinking is a bit of an overreaction.  He had a solid performance last week against Tennessee.  That said, he needs to find the end zone a bit more, averaging one TD a game and a rate of 3.4%.  He is performing best when throwing deep and out, with 3 TD to 1 INT and over 15 yards per attempt.  Considering the injuries the Ravens have to their outside corners, not to mention all the confusion they’ve had in the secondary, it could be a big game for WR1 Nico Collins.  Who is healthy and able to cover him?  If this were a defense that understood themselves, I would say they should be able to limit the short-to-medium passing game, but any inclination the defense can stop something is in question.

One bit of interesting news is that Woody Marks is now listed as RB1.  The rookie is smaller and faster than Nick Chubb as this point in his career, and better suited for running with three or four WR on the field.  Again I would normally say this would be a test to see how physical he can be, but there is nothing about this Ravens defense that can be assumed.

If there’s an offensive line the Ravens can possibly get right against, it’s this one.  RG Ed Ingram is playing  extremely well in run blocking, but the rest has been a mediocre performance at best.  Stroud has already been sacked ten times and their 4.1 YPA rushing is 20^th in the league.  Even though they looked better last week, it was agianst one of the worst teams in the NFL.  If the Ravens can’t find a way to limit this team under 30 points, I don’t know when the next such game will be.

Texans Defense vs. Ravens Offense

For the fourth straight game the Ravens are facing a formidable defense, and statistically this is the fiercest yet.  Houston has yet to give up more than 20 points, and they just blanked Tennessee, holding the Titans to 175 total yards.  As with many teams the Texans run a base 4-2 nickel, but they don’t take their big uglies off the field, rather they have a rotation.  They are killer against 11 personnel with an EPA of (-14.17).

If you saw the graphic you’ll have noticed the defensive line is bright red from left to right.  The strength of this team is unquestionably the pass rush.  Not only are Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter at the top of their game, so are tackles Sheldon Rankins and Tim Settle.  DC Matt Burke keeps them fresh by rotating in players like Mario Edwards Jr, Derek Barnett, Tommy Togiai and Folorunso Fatukasi (who is out this week).  The idea is to get home while rushing four, and they’re succeeding.  With the Ravens OL close to being in shambles, the worst thing they can do is have Cooper Rush drop back deep.  There will be no time.  The passes must be quick and crisp and they must be complemented by a robust running game.

If there is one good bit of injury news for the Ravens it’s that Houston’s top CB Derek Stingley Jr is banged up – but he will play.  They also kicked S C.J. Gardner Johnson off the team, and their other starting S Calen Bullock is having a miserable season.  This secondary can be had if the team can get past the insane pass rush of the Texans.  The LB aren’t special either, and Christian Harris isn’t even seeing the field that much.  Once again, I don’t know if the Ravens can take advantage of this, because I don’t know if they know how to adjust to what the other team is doing.

Conclusion

The Houston Texans are a deeply flawed football team, with one of the worst offensive lines in the league and yet I don’t know if the Ravens have the capacity to take advantage of that, especically with the litany of injuries they are now dealing with.  Unfortunately my head tells me the Texans are going to choke the Ravens offense until they tap out.  All they have to do is have their offense not beat themselves.  Sounds familiar doesn’t it?  That’s why there is always hope.  We don’t know until the whistle starts who is prepared and who isn’t.

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