Battle Plans: Taming Wild Horses

Ravens v. Broncos Offense

Return to Under Center Play Action

The Ravens offensive line took a step back in Week 8, with Derrick Henry averaging just 3.4 yards per carry outside of his 39-yard rush in the second quarter. Henry averaged just 1.27 yards before contact, a significant drop from the team’s season-long average, which dropped to 3.12 YBC after Week 8, but still leads the NFL.

In the run game, the Ravens need to get back to the under-center game that has been their bread-and-butter this season. Their 25.1% under center rate is their highest since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, averaging 6.5 yards per play (second in the NFL), a 2.0-yard increase from their average in Jackson’s first five seasons. Henry has dominated when running the ball under center, leading the NFL with 513 rushing yards (+210 over expected).

The Broncos, however, have found success against under center runs this year, holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per carry (ninth fewest) while generating a 64.9% defensive success rate (fifth highest). Denver’s 24.1% stuff rate is the second-best in the NFL, led by Allen and Justin Strnad who both rank among the top five in that category.

Todd Monken previously used tosses and traps to great success against the Bills’ penetrating defensive line in Week 4, something he should go back to against the Broncos. Just four of Henry’s 11 attempts against the Browns came from under center, a 36.4% clip compared to 56.6% on the year.

That number should see a significant uptick, even if the Broncos find success against the run early. In that case, Monken should go back to play action, something he practically abandoned in Week 8. Jackson’s 11.6% play action rate was a season-low, something that has to change on Sunday. In fact, the Ravens are 0-3 with their three lowest-scoring performances of the year when they run play action less than 20% of the time.

Jackson has been extremely effective as a passer off of play action this year, and it also makes life a bit easier in pass protection. But even though the run game traditionally sets up play action, Monken has relied on the inverse to get linebackers dropping off the line of scrimmage into coverage, opening up more space on the ground. That’s the synergy of the Ravens offense, with the run game integrated into the passing attack. Baltimore needs to get back to that identity on Sunday.

Spread and Sound Against the Blitz

The Ravens offensive line also struggled in pass protection in Week 8, allowing a 41.9% pressure rate despite a Browns blitz rate of just 31.6%, indicating that Cleveland’s four-man rushes with stunts and twists were effective against Baltimore’s blockers.

The offensive line needs an improved performance against an aggressive Broncos defense that blitzes 40.9% of the time with a 39.6% overall pressure rate, both top three marks. Denver specializes in five-man fronts, running them at a 42.8% clip (fourth highest) with a 64.7% defensive success rate (third-highest) and a 59.0% blitz rate (fifth-highest). But the Broncos can generate consistent pressure without blitzing, with a 37.8% pressure rate that ranks second in the league. Their 70 quick pressures lead the NFL, indicating an ability to quickly win matchups and create free rushers.

In pass protection, the Ravens’ offensive line obviously needs to win their 1-on-1 matchups, but also pay attention to stunts and twists that can create free rushers, both from the defensive line and the second level. Daniel Faalele and Roger Rosengarten in particular, have struggled in recent weeks and will face a tough matchup against Zach Allen and Jonathon Cooper. Allen’s 43 pressures lead interior defensive linemen, per Pro Football Focus, and Cooper ranks 14th among edge rushers with 30 pressures. In addition to winning the battle against Allen and Cooper, Faalele and Rosengarten will need to stay alert for overload blitz packages and simulated pressures meant to confuse and overwhelm the right side of the line. The entire line has to stay coordinated on their assignments in picking up and passing off rushers.

Monken also has some schematic levers to pull against the blitz, starting with spread formations that will open up more space in the run game. The Ravens used a lot of condensed formations to counter the Browns’ stacked boxes, but that only kept defenders close to the point of attack and increased traffic in the run game.

Henry has been devastating from under center, but he leads the NFL in rushing yards over expected out of the pistol (+127) and ranks fourth in RYOE out of shotgun (+72 RYOE), averaging more than 5.0 yards per carry out of both alignments. Utilizing the read-option game from spread formations will give the Ravens a number advantage against the Broncos’ five-man blitzes that drop six defenders into coverage.

Monken can also use RPOs that keep defenders in the box while opening up space for screens on the outside. That normally involves Zay Flowers – and it still should – but some two-back formations with Justice Hill going into motion as a screen target will put extra stress on the Broncos linebackers as they must commit to stopping Henry up the middle or Hill on the outside.

Work Favorable Matchups in Man Coverage

The Broncos run man coverage on 42.0% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. The Ravens struggled against man coverage in Week 8, surrendering nine pressures and all three of Jackson’s sacks against man coverage.

Week 8 Passing vs. Coverage	Man Coverage	Zone Coverage
Lamar Jackson	17/27, 226 yards, 1 TD, 0 sacks	6/11, 63 yards, 1 TD, 3 sacks
Average Receiver Separation	2.2 yards	3.9 yards

Separation has not typically been an issue for the Ravens’ receivers this year, averaging 8.2 yards per target against man coverage (seventh highest) with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman both ranking among the NFL’s elite. New acquisition Diontae Johnson also ranks 12th in the NFL with 2.4 yards per route against man coverage this season.

The Ravens have faced Cover-1 at the 8th-highest rate this season because, as @Nate_Tice mentions here, teams are trying to account for the run game. When you get those looks, it’s paramount that you have perimeter separators. The Ravens have a couple of guys who can do that, but… https://t.co/zu8vYdkccI

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 29, 2024

Still, consistent separation will be difficult against Patrick Surtain, who has allowed just seven receptions on his 12 targets in man coverage this season with four passes defended (including an interception) for a 33.3% ball hawk rate.

Denver’s more vulnerable defenders are linebacker Cody Barton (123.5 passer rating when targeted) and safety P.J. Locke (126.3 passer rating when target), who have especially struggled in man coverage with 116 yards allowed on nine targets, per PFF. Monken can stress Barton and Locke by using inverted formations with Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews splitting out wide. Andrews has aligned out wide on 20.8% of his snaps this year, 7.9% more than his career average entering 2024. His 27.3% target rate when split out wide is 9.0% higher than his target rate from any other alignment.

If Barton and Locke follow the tight ends into single coverage on the outside, they can be beaten through the air while giving up more ground up the middle in the run game. If they stay close to the box, they’ll be overmatched against wide receivers.

Monken can also use Ricard as an inline tight end on the closed side of a formation to occupy a cornerback and ‘waste’ him in coverage on a lesser pass-catcher, opening opportunities elsewhere.

Flowers has also been one of the most effective wide receivers when in motion this year. Monken should have him moving around pre-snap and flying off the ball to give him an advantage in man-on-man matchups.

Most receiving yards on plays they are in motion at the snap, per @NextGenStats. Yards per route run in parentheses.

Tutu Atwell, 250 (4.1)
Zay Flowers, 143 (6.2)
Chris Godwin, 141 (8.8)
Cooper Kupp, 106 (2.5)
De’Von Achane, 93 (4.2)

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 30, 2024

Working better matchups against man coverage will allow Jackson to return to targeting wide-open receivers and avoiding tight windows, something he’s excelled at this season. His 32.5% target and +50.9 EPA when passing to wide-open receivers both rank second in the NFL, while his 9.7% tight window rate is second lowest. Last week, however, he nearly doubled that to 18.4% against the Browns, and the Broncos will present a similar challenge. Denver has allowed just 20.9% of opposing targets to have five or more yards of separation (sixth lowest) while forcing a tight window 17.4% of the time (seventh-highest).

Monken’s ability to scheme up separation will play a major role in Baltimore’s success through the air, especially against the blitz, where Jackson’s success rate leads the NFL.

[Related Article: Ravens Player Props v. Broncos]

Defense

Reinforce the Trenches

With Michael Pierce on injured reserve, Brent Urban ruled out for Sunday, and Travis Jones questionable with an ankle injury, the Ravens will once again ask Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington to shoulder a massive load in the trenches.

Practice squad elevations for Chris Wormley and Josh Tupou will help, but Zach Orr will need to carefully manage his defensive line snaps to maintain stamina all game. That was an issue against the Browns, as Madubuike and Washington managed just two pressures apiece and forced Orr to turn to heavy blitzing in the fourth quarter.

Orr can ease the pressure on his defensive line by using lighter pass rushing packages in obvious passing situations.

On third-and-longs when the Broncos aren’t going to run the ball, Orr can bring in three edge rushers and deploy wide pass-rushing alignments with one edge shaded to the inside alongside Madubuike. That will open up plenty of opportunities for stunts and twists that utilize the length and speed of Odafe Oweh and Tavius Robinson to create traffic and open rushing lanes. Orr can also use more effective simulated pressures with Kyle Van Noy dropping into coverage off one edge and bringing an overload on the other side.

The lack of DL depth could even lead to some three-rusher alignments in obvious passing situations, allowing Orr to bring in extra coverage defenders. He won’t have to choose between having Trenton Simpson and Ar’Darius Washington on the field, for example, he can have them both, capable of dropping into coverage or bringing pressure from the second level.

In the run game, the Broncos have struggled against light boxes while finding more efficiency against stacked boxes. The Ravens don’t have any extreme tendencies either way, ranking 17th in light box usage and 12th in stacked box usage. Against Denver, Orr should trust his light boxes even with a shorthanded defensive line to allow Simpson and Roquan Smith to continue their solid run-stopping up the middle.

Pass Rush-Coverage Cohesion

One of the main issues with the Ravens’ pass defense this season has been a lack of cohesion between the pass rush and the coverage shell. That showed up multiple times against the Browns, with Baltimore’s cornerbacks playing in off-man on blitz plays and linebackers struggling to get back in coverage after bluffing at the line of scrimmage.

Orr has maintained much of the structure and scheme of Mike Macdonald’s record-setting 2023 defense, but he’s not finding the same success.

The 2023 Ravens ran disguised coverages 41.3% of the time and simulated pressures 27.4% of the time.

The 2024 Ravens are running disguises 41.5% of the time and sim pressures 26% of the time.

So … WTF? The problem is bigger than communication.https://t.co/zNDnIEjp6w

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 30, 2024

Part of the explanation is new personnel in new roles, whether that be the additions of Eddie Jackson or Nate Wiggins or a starting role for Trenton Simpson and a switch into the slot for Marlon Humphrey. That has caused issues in communication and assignment discipline in pass coverage, making it harder to run disguised coverages without everyone on the same page.

The carryover from Macdonald’s defense also means that teams are more familiar with the Ravens’ scheme, making their disguised coverages and simulated pressures too predictable. Disguising pressure and coverage at the same time makes it too difficult for defenders to get back into their zone coverages. With several players crowded around the line of scrimmage, all receivers have to do is beat defenders to their coverage landmark, which is especially difficult for Roquan Smith when he is constantly mugged over the A gap.

Opposing quarterbacks have generated +17.0 EPA with Smith as the nearest defender in coverage this season, the second-worst mark among NFL linebackers. That’s emblematic of the Ravens’ issues defending the middle of the field, with 14.5 yards per attempt on passes 10-19 yards downfield over the middle.

The disguised coverages still worked on several occasions vs. the Browns, but Eddie Jackson dropped two potential interceptions that would have changed the course of the game. Orr should still work to crowd the picture against Broncos’ rookie QB Bo Nix, but he should take fewer risks over the middle of the field and force Nix to beat him on the outside.

Nix already avoids the intermediate middle of the field, with a league-low 33.3% target rate in that area, 6.7% lower than the next closest QB. Closing the middle of the field with more Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks will further discourage Nix from targeting the Ravens’ most vulnerable area, especially as a quick target against blitzes. Disguised coverages can still be in play, but they should be less complicated and avoid forcing defenders to cover large portions of the field out of disadvantageous alignments.

The Broncos also use motion at a league-low 34.5% clip. That’s not just 13.8% lower than the next-closest team, it’s the second-lowest motion rate of any team since 2020. The Broncos have succeeded without motion, averaging 5.7 yards per play compared to 4.3 yards per play with motion, the second-largest gap in the league.

The Broncos may be better without motion, but that will also simplify the pre-snap picture for the Ravens, helping defenders identify their assignments and remain sound in coverage. It also offers the opportunity to run more man coverage, which is easier for defensive backs to prepare for before the snap.

Create Free Rushers

The last step of Orr’s game plan is generating free rushers, something the Ravens struggled to do against Cleveland. Despite a 41.6% blitz rate, Baltimore generated pressure on Jameis Winston just 25.6% of the time, meaning that blitzes were not getting home with fewer defenders in coverage.

There is some optimism about the Ravens’ pass rush. They have converted 22.5% of their pressures into sacks this year, ranking fourth in total sacks (23) through eight weeks. However, their 29.7% pressure rate is the eighth lowest in the NFL, which has showed up in the second half multiple times as the pass rush faded away, especially on third down.

Opposing QBs are getting an average of 3.96 seconds to throw on third-and-long (7+) against the Ravens this season.

That’s the worst mark for any team in the past decade, per TruMedia, and almost a half-second slower than the runner-up (3.52 seconds).

Pass rush needs some help.

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 27, 2024

The Ravens’ stout run defense has forced opposing teams into plenty of third-and-long situations, but they’ve given quarterbacks too much time to find an open target past the sticks.

Bo Nix has been awful under pressure, but the Broncos’ offensive line has kept him clean with the lowest sack rate (3.6%) and the eight-lowest pressure rate (27.8%) this year.

Even after Week 8, Baltimore blitzes just 22.2% of the time, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. Orr can continue the aggressive play calling, but he has to design blitzes to generate free rushers that have an open shot at Nix in the backfield.

Orr finally has three of his best blitzing weapons healthy at the same time in Kyle Hamilton, Arthur Maulet, and Marlon Humphrey, all of whom can create pressure on slot blitzes off the edge. Hamilton was excellent against the Browns, recording two pressures (including a strip-sack) on just five pass rushes. Maulet’s slot blitz was one of the most effective defensive plays in the NFL last year, and Humphrey has rarely blitzed, but has been effective when doing so. Those blitzes need to be paired with press-man coverage on the outside to limit quick passes and let the pass rush get home.

Even when he doesn’t blitz in obvious passing situations, Orr needs to deploy better simulated pressure packages with different players rushing the passer and dropping into coverage throughout the game. Smith has not been effective as a blitzer this season, so keep him in coverage while using Simpson’s athleticism to harass Nix in the pocket. Orr also must be more willing to let his pass rushers drop into coverage to properly sell simulated pressures, which was one of Macdonald’s hallmarks. That unpredictability is what made the 2023 Ravens defense so dangerous: opposing quarterbacks couldn’t be certain who was rushing and who wasn’t.

Combining a more varied rush plan with more intentional stunts, picks, and twists by the defensive line will generate free rushers that can easily convert pressures into sacks and limit Nix’s scrambling. He scrambles at the seventh-highest rate of any quarterback (19.0%) but has found far more success running the ball than looking for a target downfield. The Ravens have allowed just 31.4% of scrambles to turn into runs, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, excelling at forcing passers to hold onto the balls, resulting in sacks and throwaways.

1-on-1 Matchup: Rashod Bateman vs. Riley Moss

Patrick Surtain has shadowed opposing teams’ WR1s throughout his career; this year, he’s taken on both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams (before they were on the same team).

Zay Flowers may not quite be in that rarified air, but he’s still Baltimore’s top receiver with the 12th-most yards in the NFL. In got-to-have-it situations for the Ravens offense, Surtain will be in man coverage on Flowers, leaving Bateman isolated against Riley Moss.

Flowers still has the agility to separate from Surtain, but Jackson is more likely to take the better matchup. Moss has allowed 21 receptions on 30 targets in man coverage for 212 yards but has limited opposing wideouts to just 35 yards after the catch, per PFF. Bateman, meanwhile, has been solid against man with 105 yards on eight catches and 13 targets, but just 17.6% of his targets have come against man coverage this year, according to PFF. Both players have been better in zone situations, but this matchup is likely to push them out of their comfort zone and win their man-on-man matchup.

Bateman has shown the release packaged and route-running to not just beat press-man coverage, but punish it downfield with deep shots and YAC on slants. He needs to translate his separation against zone into success vs. man to help Jackson beat the blitz and take the top off the defense.

All stats via NextGen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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