Ravens v. Broncos Player Props

In a game riddled by errors and mishaps, the Ravens dropped their third game of the season. I mean that quite literally, as drops from players on both sides of the ball led to Jameis Winston and the Browns upsetting the Ravens, who were flying high headed into that division matchup as winners of 5 straight. The Ravens look to turn the page as they’re back home this week, welcoming the 5-3 Denver Broncos into town. This could be a good opportunity for the defense to get back on track as rookie quarterbacks have historically struggled vs Baltimore, going 7-27 in the John Harbaugh era.

The Ravens offense on the other hand just needs to keep doing what they’re doing. The drops without a doubt were a huge factor in the loss, but I’m not buying that as an issue that will last moving forward. One significant drop on a deep ball by Rashod Bateman costed us another 4-1 week in our player props, but we will certainly take staying above the median and walking away in plus money for the 8th straight week, bringing us to 30-10 on the season.

The Ravens offense will face perhaps their toughest test yet in a Broncos defense that is tops in the NFL averaging only 4.4 yards per play, making the Ravens offense vs the Broncos Defense one of the marquee matchups in the NFL this week.

Here are the bets I’ll be riding in an important Week 9 AFC matchup in Baltimore. Let’s stay hot!

[Staff Bold Predictions for Week 9]

Derrick Henry O 89.5 Rushing Yards (-110 ESPN Bet)

Expect a heavy dose of King Henry this week. Henry, who has historically been able to handle 20+ carries a game, has had back-to-back games with under 20 carries. To his standards, these are fresh legs heading into a matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks 4th in passing yards allowed per game. His lack of usage last week was the result of a poor game script as the Ravens were down most of the game. I don’t foresee that happening this week, and if the Ravens can get out front early and control the tempo, they will feed The King down the stretch to close it out. 89.5 is a number I’m very comfortable with here, as Henry has averaged 138 rushing yards per game at home this season.

Derrick Henry Longest Rush O 17.5 Yards (-125 ESPN Bet)

This one goes hand-in-hand with the above selection. If Derrick Henry gets rolling, there’s not a defense in this league that can stop him. His 138 rushing yards per game at home this year is absurd, but the numbers get more impressive the further you look into them. Per NFL Pro, Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards over expected from both under center (+210) and pistol (+127) this season. Defenses can stack the box as much as they want, but all he needs is one hole or one broken tackle and he’s off to the second level where he can really do damage. Rushing yards over expected is a clear sign of explosive runs, which we’ve seen a lot of from The King this year. I’m expecting a few more this week, especially in the latter half of the game when the defense begins to wear down.

Lamar Jackson O 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115 ESPN Bet)

At this point, I think you can identify the trend here, and how I envision this game playing out. The Ravens need to get back to their winning formula and run the ball at will until the defense proves they can stop it. This matchup in particular is one Lamar can exploit with his legs. Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos have blitzed on 43% of drop backs this season, the highest rate in the NFL. Lamar Jackson on the flip side has the highest success rate against the blitz. As we’ve mentioned, the Broncos defense has been elite, and I would expect them to stick with their formula which is creating chaos in the backfield and relying on their playmakers in the secondary to lock down the back end. The downside of blitzing Lamar is his superhuman elusiveness and escapability when the pocket breaks down. If the Broncos stick to their blitz heavy scheme, there will be lanes for Lamar if he evades the rush (which he probably will). Those off script chunk plays combined with the handful of designed runs will equate to Lamar reaching this mark come Sunday.

Mark Andrews O 3.5 Receptions (+ 135 ESPN Bet)

Mark Andrews is a guy we’ve been banking on here for the past few weeks, and he has yet to fail us. His connection with Lamar is fully back where it was before his injury last year. Andrews has eclipsed this mark in 3 of his last 4 games as he enters a matchup against a Broncos defense that has surrendered 42 receptions to opposing tight ends, ranking 27th in the league. I expect Andrews to pick up where he left off the last couple weeks and continue to be a reliable option for Lamar in the passing game. Plus odds here feels like a great value play for the veteran tight end.

Bo Nix U 224.5 Passing Yards (-135 ESPN Bet)

The Ravens secondary as we all know has struggled this season, ranking dead last in the league in passing defense. This week feels like a get right game for them. Marlon Humphrey looks to be back after practicing this week which is huge for this defense as he has looked like the Marlon of old up to this point. He and Brandon Stephens have shown to be one of the better cornerback tandems in the league. Nate Wiggins also looks to return after an illness sidelined the impressive rookie last week in Cleveland. Having the home crowd behind them will benefit this defense as well, especially vs. a rookie quarterback. This defense is pissed off, and you can sense a shift in attitude throughout this week of practice that I expect will translate to the field on Sunday. The Broncos don’t have any elite playmakers on the outside, so if the Ravens front seven can generate enough pressure and create havoc in the backfield, I don’t foresee Nix reaching this mark on Sunday.

The post Ravens v. Broncos Player Props appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/11/02/sports-betting/broncos-ravens-player-props/