Iran’s Tactical Pivot: The Future of Proxy Terror

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran marks a turning point in Tehran’s geopolitical strategy. Faced with military setbacks and regional pressure, Iran appears to be shifting from overt proxy warfare to a more covert, asymmetric approach. This essay explores Iran’s tactical pivot, outlining emerging trends and the implications of a recalibrated proxy terrorism posture.

For decades, Iran has relied on the so-called “Axis of Resistance”—a network of proxy groups including Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, and Yemen’s Houthis. These groups enabled Iran to exert influence while avoiding direct military confrontation with Israel or the West (Financial Times, 2025; WSJ, 2025). However, recent Israeli offensives have significantly weakened these proxies: Hezbollah sidelined post-2024 conflict, Hamas depleted, Iraqi militias cautious, and the Houthis largely inactive (WSJ, 2025; The Washington Post, 2025; AP News, 2025). These declining capabilities position Iran at a strategic crossroads, spurring a shift toward more deniable, unconventional instruments of asymmetrical warfare.

With its overt proxies neutralized, Iran’s leadership—especially the IRGC and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—may resort to pre-positioned sleeper cells in the West. These cells could be tasked with sabotage, targeted assassinations, or bomb plots in Europe and North America (NY Post, 2025; CSIS, 2024). Historically, Iran has pursued such operations, though agent effectiveness varied (West Point CTC, 2022). In today’s climate of heightened vigilance, sleeper networks may become a strategic fallback for Iran to signal capability and resolve without incurring full-scale military retaliation.

Iran’s longstanding use of targeted killings as a foreign-policy tool is set to intensify. These covert operations allow Iran to advance political objectives while retaining strategic ambiguity and plausible deniability (West Point CTC, 2022). Given recent Israeli strikes undermining Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure—and key personnel like IRGC commanders—retaliatory assassinations abroad are increasingly probable (Foreign Policy, 2025). European cities with large Jewish or Israeli diasporas may be primary targets, mirroring past attempts against dissidents and regime critics.

Digital warfare is evolving into a primary vector of asymmetric conflict. Recently, the Israel-linked group Predatory Sparrow conducted cyberattacks against Iran’s financial and infrastructure systems, including Nobitex and Sepah Bank, destroying over $90 million in cryptocurrency and disrupting civilian access (Wired, 2025; The Guardian, 2025; TechCrunch, 2025). Revenge cyber campaigns by Iran or IRGC-aligned actors targeting Israeli and Western networks—critical infrastructure, communications, government systems, or financial sectors—are increasingly likely. Such acts blend terror tactics with state-backed cyber strategy, heightening the risk to civilian systems.

Although severely weakened, Iran’s regional proxies may execute hybrid-style, low-intensity attacks while avoiding direct confrontation. This could include IEDs, precision drone strikes, small-scale guerrilla actions, and maritime harassment via the Houthis in strategic zones like the Red Sea (Wikipedia, 2025; CFR, 2025). Iran may deploy such tactics to signal its presence and influence without provoking decisive military retaliation, especially if fully re-integrating these proxies proves infeasible.

With regionally-based proxies out of action, Iran may revive transnational terror capabilities to project global influence. This involves drawing on proxy networks and sleeper cells to threaten or attack Israeli, Jewish, or Western targets in regions from Europe to South America (Congress.gov, 2015). Transnational terrorism would serve dual purposes: weighing on adversary governments and signaling Iran’s retaliatory capacity, even amid regional attrition.

In parallel with terrorist tactics, Iran is ramping up intelligence operations targeting military and civilian targets. The discovery of clandestine Mossad drone bases and deep Israeli strikes in Iran underscores the shift to integrated espionage and sabotage (Wikipedia, 2025). Iran is likely to mirror this by enhancing IRGC-Quds Force intelligence across adversary networks, embedding operatives and informants. These efforts will support terror activities and provide strategic advantage in cyber and kinetic domains.

Iran’s pivot toward asymmetrical proxy tactics carries significant risks:

1. Elevated threat to Western cities: Covert terrorism and sleeper-cell activation raise the probability of attacks in democratic nations.

2. Cyber-physical integration: Terrorism may now combine cyber sabotage with physical violence to maximize impact.

3. Ambiguity and deniability: Low-intensity hybrid tactics and covert operations complicate attribution and response.

4. Escalation control: Iran’s strategic use of non-state proxies allows tit-for-tat retaliation without triggering state-level war.

5. Strained geopolitical balance: The erosion of Iran’s conventional deterrents increases room for proxy miscalculations.

Proxy warfare via maritime and infrastructure threats—particularly in the Red Sea—could disrupt global trade. The Houthis have previously attacked over 100 vessels, forcing rerouting and hitting the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint (Wikipedia, 2025). Should Iran amplify such actions as leverage, disruptions to critical sea lanes could ensue, with major economic impacts.

To counter Iran’s emerging tactics, a layered security approach should be pursued:

• Enhanced intelligence-sharing: Cooperative signals, cyber, and HUMINT exchange among Western and Middle Eastern agencies.

• Counter-sleeper monitoring: Elevated surveillance and legal frameworks in diaspora communities.

• Cyber defense hardening: Public/private collaboration to protect financial and critical infrastructure.

• Port and maritime security: Resilient defense in chokepoints through allied naval cooperation and convoy arrangements.

• Diplomatic deterrence: Coordinated sanctions, legal actions, and political messaging to raise the costs of covert aggression.

Michel Foucault once noted that power structures “work in secrecy and in complete darkness.” Today, in the wake of direct military pressures, Iran is turning toward the shadowy realms of asymmetric conflict—cyber sabotage, covert terror, and hybrid proxy warfare. This strategic pivot reflects diminished regional capacity but signals a more dangerous international posture. As proxies remain fractured and weaker, Iran will rely on the stealth of subterranean networks to project influence—altering the global threat landscape. To adapt, the international community must rise to the challenge: fostering resilience, interoperability, and vigilance against today’s less visible — yet perhaps more insidious — threat paradigm.

AP News. (2025, June 14). Why are some key Tehran allies staying out of the Israel‑Iran conflict? Associated Press. Retrieved from AP News archive.

Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2024). Escalating to war between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. CSIS Analysis.

Congressionally-mandated hearings. (2015). Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere. Congress.gov.

Council on Foreign Relations. (2025). Iran’s support for the Houthis. CFR. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org

Foreign Policy. (2025, June 13). Iran’s options for retaliating against Israel have narrowed.

TechCrunch. (2025, June 18). Hackers steal and destroy millions from Iran’s largest crypto exchange.

The Guardian. (2025, June 18). Israel‑linked group hacks Iranian cryptocurrency exchange in $90m heist.

Wired. (2025, June 18). Israel‑tied Predatory Sparrow hackers are waging cyberwar on Iran’s financial system.

West Point CTC. (2022). Trends in Iranian external assassination, surveillance, and abduction plots. Combating Terrorism Center.

Wikipedia. (2025). Red Sea crisis; Iranian support for the Houthis; June 2025 Mossad operations in Iran.