Russia Targets Major Surge In Natural Gas Exports By 2050

Authored by Charles Kennedy via ilPrice.com,

• Russia plans to double its natural gas exports by 2030 and triple them by 2050.

• The strategy focuses on expanding exports to “friendly countries” and developing Arctic energy resources.

• Russia faces economic risks due to global market volatility and Western sanctions.

Russia expects its natural gas exports, including via pipeline and LNG, to jump twofold by 2030 and threefold to 2050 under its new long-term energy strategy approved by the government on Monday.

Russia sees its pipeline and LNG overseas deliveries surge from 146 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 to 293 bcm in 2030, and further up to 438 bcm by 2050.

Crude oil and condensate production is targeted to increase from 531 million metric tons per year, or 10.66 million barrels per day (bpd), in 2023 to 540 million tons, or 10.8 million bpd, by 2050.

However, oil exports are expected to remain flat throughout 2050, at around 235 million tons per year, or about 4.7 million bpd.

The new strategy, whose update was ordered by Vladimir Putin, includes measures to accelerate the development of oil and gas processing, expand the regional gas infrastructure development program, and ensure sufficient petroleum product supply on the domestic market at affordable prices.

Under the strategy, Russia will also continue to redirect oil and gas exports “to new markets in friendly countries,” to which Moscow has been exporting since the invasion of Ukraine and the Western embargoes and sanctions imposed in 2022.

Russia also aims to boost oil transshipment capacity in its Arctic and Far Eastern ports and actively utilize the Northern Sea Route’s potential—these are key to delivering oil and LNG from its Arctic projects to markets in Asia.

While updating its long-term energy strategy, Russia faces lower oil and gas revenues in the short term.

For Russia, the oil market meltdown in recent days could pose risks to the economy, Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said last week.

“If the escalation of the tariff wars continues, this usually leads to a decline in global trade and the global economy and, possibly, demand for our energy resources. Therefore, there are risks here,” Nabiullina was quoted as saying by Russia’s TASS news agency.