Powell’s Chicago Speech Shows He’s Guessing Again…

Submitted by “Hyper Pi”,

Yesterday at the Economic Club of Chicago, Jerome Powell doubled down on his tariff-pocalypse fetish, warning that Trump’s trade levies could spark “higher inflation and slower growth.” 

Sound familiar? 

In 2021, he called 9.1% inflation “transitory” while M2 money supply exploded 42%. 

That delusion triggered a market rout and crushed Main Street. 

Now, Powell’s playing Nostradamus again, fixating on hypothetical tariff shocks while ignoring deflationary red flags like $60/barrel oil prices. 

The Fed’s job isn’t to predict trade wars – it’s to react to data. Powell’s flunking that test, again. 

Powell’s April 16 speech hyped Trump’s 10-25% tariff proposals as a looming inflation bomb, claiming they’re “larger than anticipated” and could derail the Fed’s 2% target. 

Sure, tariffs might bump some prices, but Powell’s acting like they’re the whole story. 

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude is at $60 – multi-year lows – slashing transport and production costs. 

That’s a deflationary sledgehammer, yet Powell barely nods at it. 

The data screams caution, not panic. 

Consumer confidence cratered to January 2021 lows in March 2025. Small-business uncertainty spiked to near-record highs in February. 

First-quarter GDP growth is slowing, with consumer spending “modest” despite car sales. 

These are signs of an economy wheezing, not overheating. 

Yet Powell’s 4.3% interest rates, frozen since mid-2024, are squeezing harder than a bear market vise. 

Trump’s Truth Social rants for rate cuts might be brash, but they’re not wrong. 

Powell’s tariff obsession mirrors his 2021 blunder: betting on guesses over facts.

Back then, he ignored money supply and CPI spikes. 

Now, he’s blind to oil prices and softening demand, chasing trade-war ghosts. 

The Fed has tools—producer price indices, commodity trackers—to spot real inflation. 

If tariffs bite, hike rates then. 

Preemptively choking growth on “what-ifs” is malpractice. 

History honors Fed chairs who act, not prophesize. 

Volcker smashed 1980s inflation by reading the data, not tea leaves. 

Powell’s stuck in model-land, leaving markets jittery—S&P 500 dropped 2% post- speech—and Main Street exposed. 

Oil’s at $60, confidence is tanking, and Powell’s still dreaming of tariff-driven doom. 

Ditch the guesses and drive the damn car.