OTL: A Matchup Eight Seasons in the Making

It’s taken eight seasons, four combined MVPs, and five combined all-pros, but finally, the first matchup between Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers has arrived. The two just missed each other when Rodgers last visited Baltimore back in 2021, when it was Tyler Huntley filling in for an injured Jackson in a 31-30 Green Bay win.

It’s crazy to believe that following the Ravens’ 1-5 start to the season, Baltimore finds itself in the driver’s seat for the AFC North lead. The Ravens and Steelers both enter Week 14 sitting at 6-6, with Baltimore holding the upper hand due to a better record against common opponents.

A Look at AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios

For two teams with so much hope entering the year, neither has been able to live up to the hype. Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have found trouble getting out of their own way. The Steelers have dropped three of their last four, including a 26-7 loss to the Bills a week ago, in which the Steelers defense surrendered 249 yards on the ground. The Ravens are coming off an embarrassment of their own, a 32-14 loss to the Bengals that featured a mind-numbing five turnovers surrendered to the league’s 32nd-ranked defense.

Regardless of past outcomes, one thing remains on the mind this Sunday—winning the North.

Where Has Jackson Gone?

Since Jackson’s Week 9 return against the Dolphins, the 2x MVP has been far from his usual MVP form, but the team had kept winning games. In the Ravens’ loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving night in Week 12, Lamar’s stretch of bad play finally caught up to Baltimore. It was by far one of the worst offensive performances in the Jackson era, as Baltimore finished with five turnovers and totaled just 14 points against a Bengals defense ranked 32nd in points allowed per game.

If the Ravens offense looks to find any success Sunday against the Steelers, it’s going to take a game plan similar to Buffalo’s against Pittsburgh a week ago. The Bills took a page out of Baltimore’s 2024 playbook and exposed the Steelers’ inability to stop the run, particularly on the edge. Buffalo targeted runs to the right edge 12 times, totaling 99 yards and picking up three plays of over 10 yards. It was a historic day, but not in favor of Pittsburgh, as Buffalo’s 249 rushing yards were the most allowed in a Steelers home game in the last 50 years.

It’s an identity the Ravens will need to rediscover, as they’ve not been the same since the QB’s Week 9 return. In Weeks 1-4, the Ravens offense averaged 32.7 PPG, 338 total yards, 204.5 passing yards, and 171.5 rushing yards per game. Since the Thursday night matchup against the Dolphins, those numbers have plummeted to 23 PPG, 319.4 total yards, 178 passing yards, and 141.4 rushing yards. The Ravens have also doubled their turnovers over that stretch, from four over four weeks to eight over five games. It’s a complete 180 from the offense fans saw just a season ago, in which Baltimore finished first in the league in total offense.

The piled-up injuries for Jackson have begun to become more evident, as teams have shown a willingness to truly send pressure his way, the fear of his legs seemingly a thing of the past. In the Ravens loss to the Bengals, Jackson went just 3-for-11 for 69 yards, an interception, and a sack when facing the blitz. Lamar’s -0.98 expected points added per dropback against the blitz is the second-lowest total of his career, according to Next Gen Stats.

We haven’t seen a single touchdown of any kind from Jackson since the fourth quarter of the Ravens’ Week 10 win over the Vikings (though of course two basically came off the board last week).

If there’s been a division opponent that’s truly had Lamar’s number since entering the league in 2018, it’s been the Steelers. In six career starts, Jackson holds a 2-4 record, ending a four-game losing skid with a crucial Week 16 win last season. Baltimore has swung momentum within the rivalry, picking up not only the Week 16 win last year, but also knocking Pittsburgh out of the postseason with a 28-14 Wild Card victory.

If Baltimore has any hope of keeping their 2025 postseason dreams alive this Sunday, it’s going to have to come off the back of Derrick Henry and the run game. Jackson has had to play hero for this team too much over the last few years. It’s time for the supporting cast to prove why this team was Super Bowl favorites entering the season.

Catching Pittsburgh at the Perfect Time

The second half collapses within the Steelers organization have become a yearly occurrence at this point. The formula has become predictable: Talk a lot of trash through the offseason, sign big name veterans at the end of their careers, overachieve early, then get exposed on both sides of the ball when “real” football begins.

Pittsburgh began the season with a respectable 4-1 record through six weeks. Rodgers was doing exactly what the Steelers needed from their 21-year veteran, without ultimately putting their fate directly in his hands. Rodgers never put up eye-popping numbers during the stretch, but played clean football, throwing for 1,021 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Through 12 games, however, Rodgers is averaging a career low 196.9 passing yards per game. Clear lack of talent, inept playcalling, and an inability to run the ball consistently have led to yet another Pittsburgh downfall this season.

The Steelers have averaged just 93.8 rushing yards per game, sitting 28th in the league, and have been held to under 100 rushing yards in seven of their 12 games this year. Rodgers has dealt with his own injury problems this season. He is currently dealing with a fractured wrist, and is coming off quite the beating at the hands of Buffalo, a game that saw the former MVP bloodied on the sideline. Limiting DK Metcalf and the rare explosive plays on the ground could halt any success the Steelers are hopeful for in Week 14.

It’s clear this isn’t the Rodgers of old, and getting the former MVP rattled early could result in frustrations for Pittsburgh, and potentially cancel out any shot they have at the postseason.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/12/04/out-to-lunch/lamar-jackson-aaron-rodgers/