OTL: Slicing Into Schedules for AFC North & AFC Playoff Contenders

With the first four weeks of the season in the books, it’s time to look ahead and dissect the upcoming schedules for the AFC North team and AFC Playoff Contenders.  For this edition, I included all AFC North teams and all teams that are .500 or better. Here is the breakdown for Weeks 5-9.

RAVENS (1-3) 

Week 5:  Sunday, October 5 at 1:00 Eastern:  home vs. Houston Texans

Week 6:  Sunday, October 12 at 1:00 Eastern:  home vs. Los Angeles Rams

Week 7:  BYE WEEK

Week 8:  Sunday, October 26 at 1:00 Eastern:  home vs. Chicago Bears

Week 9:  Thursday, October 30 at 8:15 Eastern:  at Miami Dolphins

Horrible start to the season for the Ravens; not only falling to 1-3, but also being hit hard with injuries.  In Week 5, the Ravens get a home matchup with the Houston Texans.  While not official yet, it looks like Lamar Jackson will be sidelined and Cooper Rush will get his first regular season start as a Raven.  It’s a tough task to win with a backup QB in this league, but I think the Ravens can get back to the run game and squeak out a much needed W.  In Week 6, the Los Angeles Rams come to town.  This will be a tough game even if Jackson is healthy enough to play.  The Rams also get the benefit of extra rest after a Week 5 Thursday night game.  I think this is a loss for the Ravens (I would love to b wrong).  Week 7 brings a much needed bye for an extremely banged up Ravens team.  Let’s hope several players, including Jackson, are fully healthy after the bye and ready for a stretch run.  Week 8 brings the Chicago Bears to Baltimore.  Assuming they are not decimated by injuries, this is a game the Ravens should win.  Week 9 is a short week and a trip to the Miami Dolphins for a Thursday night game.  Thursday night road games are always tough, but I think the Ravens pull this one out against a bad Dolphins team that is now without Tyreek Hill.

If all of this comes true, that would put the Ravens at 4-4 and keep their hopes alive for a playoff run.

BENGALS (2-2)

Week 5:  home vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday 4:25 pm Eastern)

Week 6:  at Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm Eastern)

Week 7:  home vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday night)

Week 8:  home vs. New York Jets (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 9:  home vs. Chicago Bears (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

The Bengals have looked helpless without Joe Burrow in Weeks 3 and 4.  October starts off rough for Jake Browning and the Bengals.  Home vs. the Detroit Lions in Week 5, then on the road at the Packers Week 6.  I just can’t see the Bengals being competitive in these games and think that is two more losses.  Week 7 is an important division game at home with the Steelers.  Division games are normally competitive, but the Steelers are clearly a much better and healthier team.  I think this is another loss for the Bengals.  Weeks 8 and 9 bring winnable games at home vs. Jets and Bears.  I am going to guess the Bengals win one of these two.  That would put them at 3-6 and pretty much out of contention.

STEELERS (3-1)

Week 5:  BYE WEEK

Week 6:  home vs. Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 7:  at Cincinnati Bengals (Thursday night)

Week 8:  home vs. Green Bay Packers (Sunday night)

Week 9:  home vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Old man Aaron Rodgers unfortunately has been getting the job done so far for the Pittsburgh Steelers, leading them to an impressive 3-1 start.  The Steelers have the early bye after their international game in Dublin, Ireland.  They are then home vs. the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns defense is legit, but Pittsburgh will do just enough to pull out an ugly win.  Then, they head to Cincinnati to beat up on a backup QB.  Week 8 Sunday night against the Packers should be a great game.  I think the Packers edge them out in a competitive game.  Week 9 they get Daniel Jones and the Colts.  I still don’t have confidence in the Jones resurgence and think the Steelers defense forces him into enough mistakes to get the W.  That means I expect the Steelers will be 6-2 after this stretch, and in the drivers seat for the AFC North.

BROWNS (1-3)

Week 5:  vs. Vikings (London game:  9:30 am Eastern)

Week 6: at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 7: home vs. Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 8:  at New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 9:  BYE

Welp.  My predictions for September on the Cleveland Browns were correct.  They faced a tough schedule, but I had a feeling they’d steal a win from somebody, and they ended up doing just that against the Green Bay Packers Week 3!  This Cleveland defense is legit, so they can surprise anybody any given week.  In Week 5, the Vikings will be playing their second straight international game, while the Browns will give rookie Dillon Gabriel his first NFL start.   I think both of those things give the Vikings a major advantage, and I expect the Vikings to win.  Week 6 should be an ugly low-scoring AFC North slugfest, but I expect Steelers to do just enough to hold off the Browns.  In Week 7, the Miami Dolphins come to Cleveland.  I think Cleveland wins a low-scoring game here.  Then in Week 8, the Browns head to Foxborough to play the New England Patriots.  I’m not as high on the Patriots as a lot of people, but I think they squeak out a win vs. a rookie QB.  The Browns then have a bye in Week 9.  I am expecting the Browns to be 2-6 at this point.

BILLS (4-0)

Week 5:  home vs. New England Patriots (Sunday night)

Week 6:  at Atlanta Falcons (Monday night)

Week 7:  BYE WEEK

Week 8:  at Carolina Panthers (Sunday 1:00)

Week 9:  home vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:25)

Wow.  The Bills schedule is cupcake city until Week 9.  I think the Bills will easily handle the New England Patriots Week 5, the Atlanta Falcons Week 6, and the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 after their Week 7 bye.  I fully expect the Bills to be 7-0 heading into their clash with KC in week 9.  Bills/Chiefs is always a great game.  KC needs this game more thanks to being in a competitive division and having a much tougher schedule.  I think KC pulls out a close one and Bills end this stretch 7-1 in full control of the AFC and on their way to cruising to the top seed.

CHARGERS (3-1)

Week 5:  home vs. Washington Commanders (Sunday 4:25 Eastern)

Week 6:  at Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 7:  home vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 4:05 Eastern)

Week 8:  home vs. Minnesota Vikings (Thursday night)

Week 9:  at Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Very disappointing loss in Week 4 to drop their first game, lessening their cushion on the Kansas City Chiefs in the division.  Chargers vs. Commanders Week 5 should be a thriller, but I like the Commanders to pull that one out now that QB Jayden Daniels is expected to play.  The Chargers should roll over the Dolphins Week 6.  Week 7 brings the resurgent Indianapolis Colts and Daniel Jones to town.  Jones has been a great story so far, but as I mentioned, I can’t see that level of play continuing.  I like Chargers to edge out the Colts.  Week 8 brings the Minnesota Vikings to town.  The Vikings have a ton of talent but the question is what they get out of their QB, whether it’s J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz.  This one is tough to predict, but I think the Chargers pull it out and move to 7-2, keeping pressure on the Kansas Chiefs to hang in the division race. (at least that’s my hope).

COLTS (3-1)

Week 5:  home vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Week 6:  home vs. Arizona Cardinals

Week 7:  at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 8:  home vs. Tennessee Titans

Week 9:  at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Colts are playing better than I think anybody expected, dropping only one game to a very good Los Angeles Rams team in Week 4.  I’ll be honest; the Colts have shocked me.  I thought they would be horrible with Daniel Jones at QB.  I know Jones will struggle at some point, but credit to him and the Colts for a great start to the season.  I like the Colts to keep it rolling vs. Raiders and Cardinals Weeks 5 and 6.  The Raiders haven’t looked good and Cardinals are inconsistent, plus they lost RB James Conner.  Week 7, I think they take the loss on the road to a good Los Angeles Chargers team.  In Week 8, I think they beat the Tennessee Titans easily.  In Week 9, they travel to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  As much as I’d love the Colts to pull this one out, I just don’t see it.  I think the Steelers get pressure on Jones and force mistakes.  I think the Colts will end this stretch 6-3 and still in first place in the weak AFC South.

CHIEFS (2-2)

Week 5:  at Jacksonville Jaguars (Monday night)

Week 6:  home vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday night)

Week 7:  home vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 8:  home vs. Washington Commanders (Monday night)

Week 9:  at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 4:25 Eastern)

While I enjoyed watching the Chiefs fall to 0-2, I knew they would keep finding ways to win games, mostly because of their defense and Patrick Mahomes doing JUST enough.  The Chiefs showed they can be explosive against a lackluster Ravens defense in Week 4 to move to 2-2. In Week 5, they travel to the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Jaguars are playing better than many expected, but I think this is a win for the Chiefs.  Week 6 is a thriller between Lions and Chiefs, with the Chiefs on a short week after playing Monday night.  Week 7, I think the Chiefs easily beat the Las Vegas Raiders.  Week 8 is a very competitive match vs. the Washington Commanders.  Week 9 is probably the toughest road game on the Chiefs schedule at the Buffalo Bills.  The Chiefs again will be playing on a short week after playing Monday night.  Bills/Chiefs is always a thriller and hard to predict.  I am guessing the Chiefs lose only one in this stretch, most likely to the Lions, Commanders or Bills.  This would put the Chiefs at 6-3 and still alive in an extremely competitive division.

BRONCOS (2-2)

Week 5:  at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 6:  home vs. New York Jets (London game:  9:30 am Eastern)

Week 7:  home vs. New York Giants (Sunday 4:05 Eastern)

Week 8:  home vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25 Eastern)

Week 9:  at Houston Texans (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

The Denver Broncos are a hard team to predict so far.  They have beat two bad teams (Tennessee Titans in Week 1 and the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4).  They have lost to the two good teams they have played (Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3). The Broncos have a tough task in Week 5.  They go on the road to Philadelphia on a short week after playing Monday night in Week 4.  Their defense is capable of keeping them in the game, but I like the Eagles in that one.  Week 6 is a London game vs. the Jets.  International games are always hard to predict, but hard to see them dropping one to the Jets.  Week 7 they are back home vs. New York Giants.  While they may be not be as sharp early after they want after traveling back from London, it’s also hard to see them dropping one to the Giants.  Week 8 is another home game, this time vs. the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys have been up and down, but I think the Broncos pull this one out.  Week 9, they travel to the Houston Texans.  The Broncos have a good defense and the Texans can’t protect C.J. Stroud.  I think the Broncos are 4-1 in this stretch, leaving them at 6-3 and still alive in a very competitive division.

JAGUARS (2-2)

Week 5:  home vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Monday night)

Week 6:  home vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 7:  vs. Los Angeles Rams (London game:  9:30 am Eastern)

Week 8:   BYE WEEK

Week 9:  at Las Vegas Raiders

The Jacksonville Jaguars are playing better than I expected.  I was surprised to see them pick up the victory in Week 4 on the road against the San Francisco 49ers.  Week 5 is a tall task facing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Jaguars would love to make a statement in a rare primetime Monday night game for them, but the Chiefs are just too good.  Then, they get a good Seattle Seahawks team at home on a short week.  I think that’s a competitive game, but the Seahawks prevail.  Next is a good Los Angeles Rams team in London.  International games are hard to predict, but I think the Rams are the better team, so I am predicting three straight losses to bring this team back to reality. Week 8 is a bye week before traveling to Las Vegas in Week 9, where they pick up a win.  If my predictions come true and they go 1-3 in this stretch, that puts them at 3-5 leaving them hanging on to slim hopes to stay competitive in the division that I now expect the Colts to win.

PATRIOTS (2-2)

Week 5:  at Buffalo Bills (Sunday night)

Week 6:   at New Orleans Saints (Sunday 4:25 Eastern)

Week 7:  at Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 8:  home vs. Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1:00)

Week 9:  home vs. Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00)

I debated whether to include the New England Patriots because I don’t consider them legitimate contenders, but they are .500 and have a very soft schedule, so they could possibly sneak into the playoffs as a wild card.  Week 5, the Patriots go to the Buffalo Bills.  The Patriots tend to play the Bills tough, but the Bills are too talented to drop this game.   Week 6, the Patriots travel to the New Orleans Saints.  The Saints look BAD, so I think Patriots win that one.  I also think the Patriots win Week 7 at Tennessee, although I think the Titans put up more of a fight.  Week 8 they host the Browns.  With the Browns taking their lumps with a rookie QB, I think the Patriots win this one. Week 9, the Patriots are home against the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons are a true Jekyll and Hyde team so you never know what to expect from them one week to the next.  Mike Vrabel knows how to coach defense and I think he will give young QB Michael Penix Jr. fits, so I like the Patriots to pull out the win.  If these predictions come true, that would put the New England Patriots at 6-3 and very much in contention to try to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team.

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