Insider breaks down Notre Dame’s surging playoff hopes

After starting 0-2, Notre Dame’s playoff chances, one year removed from a title game berth, were on the ropes. Now, they’re alive and well after five straight wins. They’re still very much on thin ice as the AP Poll’s number 12 team, which would put them on the fringe of the CFP ranking. They still cannot afford another loss as an independent team, but they’re surging back into the conversation. One analyst broke it all down after last week’s big ranked win.

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The AP Poll usually differs from the CFP rank. Whenever the College Football Playoff committee starts releasing their weekly rankings, there will be discrepancies. Notre Dame, given the two crushing losses to top teams early on, might be a team with high variance. As of now, though, they’re ranked 12th and thus just on the fringe. However, that doesn’t put them in, according to ESPN’s Heather Dinich.

“With the win against USC, the Irish climbed to No. 12 in this week’s CFP projection — quite a turnaround from the 0-2 start. But they would still be out if the playoff were today because the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is again projected to be South Florida, is outside of the committee’s top 12,”Dinich wrote.

Basically, because of the conference setup, South Florida would get in automatically as the champion. This is despite them not being in the top 12. That wrinkle would lead to the 12th-ranked team, the Irish, being left out, so there’s still work to do.

“Notre Dame is in must-win mode for the rest of the season, but still has the best chance of any team in the country (69.2%) to win out. If undefeated Navy can keep winning, the Irish might have another ranked opponent on their schedule to add to the USC win,” Dinich concluded. The Irish are in good shape now, especially considering how things went to start the year. But even now, they’re not in.

The Irish could have another ranked opponent soon, but maybe not. Either way, they must win out and hope they can squeeze in higher than other non-champion at-large hopefuls who might end up left out for South Florida if the rankings stay the same. Otherwise, it’ll be a major disappointment. After making it so far last year, missing out would be dreadful.

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