Hot & Cold Map: Ravens vs. Rams

In the final game before a bye week that couldn’t come soon enough, the Rams are coming to town following a drubbing by the Texans.  The Ravens are in dire straits sitting at 1-4 with a number of key injuries including QB phenom Lamar Jackson.  How in the world are they going to beat LA?  It’s obviously a tall task, but they have to try.

PFF loves the Rams.  Despite a 3-2 record, they are the top rated team in the NFL by the well-known analytical site, with an overall grade of 90.9.  The raw numbers are a little more forgiving – they have an offense ranked 14^th in points and 2^nd in yards, and a defense ranked 13^th in points and 10^th in yards.  They’re coming off a disappointing division loss to the Niners, and with the Seahawks also 3-2 the NFC West is going to be a dogfight.  There are a handful of notable injuries that we will go over that may be the Ravens’ only chance, if the holes they leave can be exploited.

Rams Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Rams play in 11 personnel 78.48% of the time, more than anyone else in the league save Tennessee.  The Ravens just played a team that plays a lot of 3WR sets in Houston and did not do well.  Unfortunately the Rams are better.  They are also 6^th in the league in EPA out of 11 personnel (31.95).  The only other personnel they use is 12 (19.94%) where they do much worse (-12.19 EPA).  Why mess with what works?  Expect to see a lot of the same.

Matthew Stafford is 37 years old and playing like he’s 27.  He is the number one QB this season in advanced passing stats among primary starters, rivaled only by Sam Darnold and Dak Prescott.  Yes you read that correctly – Stafford, Darnold and Prescott are the top of today’s NFL.  He is 2^nd in the league in passing TD (11), tied for 1^st in big time throws (14), and 7^th among qualifiers in passer rating.  He is of course helped by arguably the best WR duo in the league in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.  Nacua is playing out of his mind, leading the league in targets, catches, yards, yards per game and first downs.  It doesn’t matter which defensive backs the Ravens have healthy; if Stafford has time to throw, they will be beat.

The running game is a bit more modest, and suffered a critical gaffe when starting RB Kyren Williams fumbled last week against San Francisco.  They’re only 24^th in rushing attempts through five games, while being 4^th in passing attempts, and only two RB (Williams and backup Blake Corum) have even carried the ball.  Meanwhile, they’ve been targeted 28 times in the passing game.  The TE room has been banged up this season with both Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson missing time, so the WR corps is really carrying the team from a skill perspective.  That said, the running game can’t be ignored by the Ravens, who have failed on defense in all aspects of the game.

The Ravens did not get right against Houston’s bad offensive line, so it’s hard to say they’ll exploit anything against LA’s line, or anyone else’s until it happens.  For what it’s worth, the biggest injury news is that starting RT Rob Havenstein is doubtful to play, leaving a lackluster Warren McClendon Jr to cover for him.  None of their OL are particularly studly, and interestingly enough, their pass blocking grades have as a whole been atrocious in spite of an elite passing game.  Ordinarily I would say this is an opportunity, but is the opportunity really on the Rams side to fix their issues?

Nothing about the match up suggests this team won’t hang 30+ points on the Ravens defense.

Rams Defense vs. Ravens Offense

This is the first time this season that the Ravens are facing a defense that primarily uses an odd front.  Their modus operandi is to stuff the run, which again plays into their favor as the Ravens, you would think, will have to rely on the run game to set up the pass.  They are last in the entire league in EPA against 11 personnel (-34.52) so this sets up a conundrum.  If the Ravens spread out with Cooper Rush or Tyler Huntley at the helm, and aren’t able to get explosive plays, the coaching staff will get crushed by the media for abandoning the run again.  If they choose to pound the ball and play to their former identity, they may not go anywhere.

Poona Ford should be on pace to make the Pro Bowl if not All Pro.  He is the biggest reason for a defense that is 3^rd in rushing Y/A (3.5) and 1^st in rushing TD allowed (2).  He is flanked by a group of people more adept at pass rushing, led by EDGE studs Jared Verse and Byron Young.  He is supported in run defense by two hard-hitting Kamrens, Curl and Kinchens.  ILB Nate Landman cleans up; he is having a career season to date with improvements in coverage.

The Rams also like to employ a 3S nickel look; Quentin Lake joins the Kamrens as three of the top five defenders in snaps played.  The pass defense is another place where injuries are leaving holes.  Starting CB Akhello Witherspoon is down, leaving Emmanuel Forbes on the outside, and he is struggling opposite Cobie Durant.  That must be exploited by the Ravens WR if they are to win the game.  ILB Omar Speights is also not likely to play, leaving reserve/ST veteran Troy Reeder in his place.  Again, things point to a match up where the Ravens should be tossing the ball to their WR and TE, but the injury to Lamar and the identity crisis they find themselves in go against that.

Conclusion

Everything points to the Ravens not being competitive in this game.  They will be fighting themselves on offense, while giving up massive plays through the air.  The only thing keeping Stafford from a 400-yard day is if the Rams run the ball to grind the clock.  The only hope I can give is that the problems in the Ravens organization so far this season are not due to a lack of talent.  They’re supposedly getting several injured players back:  Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, Ronnie Stanley.  If they can actually line up correctly and make the right adjustments, this will be a completely different game.  How, then, can we expect them to do that before the bye week?  Hope for a change, but don’t expect a win.

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