Hot & Cold Map: Ravens at Miami Dolphins

The Ravens made the first step towards redemption with a decisive win over the Chicago Bears a few days ago.  Nothing’s changed however; if they want to contend at all, they need to go on a winning streak, and this time they’re on the road, on a short week.  Next up is the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins are sitting at 2-6 and are rated the 31^st  best team – in other words the 2^nd worst team – in the NFL according to PFF.  They are in very much the same situation as the Ravens, needing to reel off a number of consecutive wins to even have hope of reaching the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, they have two teams in the division in Buffalo and New England that are better than any team the Ravens have to leapfrog in the AFC North. The Dolphins have an offense ranked 21^st in points and 28^th in yards, and a defense ranked 26^th in points and 23^rd in yards. The one thing they have going is that they played their best game of the season last weekend at Atlanta.

Dolphins Offense vs. Ravens Defense

Contrary to what you might think, the Dolphins play in 11 personnel only 48.20% of the time, which is 26^th in the NFL. They’re not good in it either (-7.30 EPA). Only some of this can be attributed to the gruesome injury to Tyreek Hill back in Week 4.  The real explanation is that they can’t pass block. They therefore use 21 personnel nearly a third of their snaps (32.66%) and follow that up with 22 personnel 8.33% of the time. It’s an offense that’s leaking and coach Mike McDaniel is desperately trying to plug holes.

Tua Tagovailoa was superb against Carolina and Atlanta and not much else. More often than not, he’s been flat out awful.  That he leads the league in interceptions (10) tells you enough, but he’s also lost six fumbles. His YPA (6.6) is down to his rookie level. It’s been a Jekyll-and-Hyde season with more Hyde in it. The key, as usual, is to make him uncomfortable. He can’t run, and his ability to ad-lib is nosediving.

Their best player right now is Jaylen Waddle, who emerged with the loss of Tyreek Hill. Waddle is torching teams in five of the six passing zones beyond ten yards. He is supplemented in the short passing game by RB De’Von Achane, who most NFL fans know is a burner in his own right. Achane can also blast through running lanes of course – but he doesn’t block in this offense.  In comes FB Alec Ingold in that role, oddly enough helped by WR2 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who doesn’t do much good except run block. The TE room is paper thin with Darren Waller on IR and Julian Hill ruled out for tonight’s game. It’s really just about stopping two players for the Ravens defense.

The OL is another in a conveyor belt of lackluster lines. If the Ravens can somehow figure out a solid pass rush, Miami is in trouble here. The Dolphins have a huge injury cluster at OL: James Daniels, Austin Jackson, Germain Ifedi, Yodny Cajuste and Obinna Eze all down for the count. Their rookie (Jonah Savaiinaea) looks like a rookie and their sophomore (Patrick Paul) doesn’t look much better. Both starting guards are putrid in pass blocking until proven otherwise. Tua is ironically still upright while half the people assigned to protect him are out.

Which Ravens defense shows up, the one earlier in the season or the one we saw against the Rams and Bears? I can only go with what’s recent, and in that case, I’ll say Waddle and Achane each get a cookie and the Dolphins do close to nothing else, scoring about 17 points.

Dolphins Defense vs. Ravens Offense

Miami likes to run a 3-4 base and take out a DT for nickel. There’s no way to sugar coat it; they’ve been bad. They’re letting offenses put up a 35.92 EPA in 11 personnel. Against larger offensive sets they’re marginally better. If this were after Week 5, you’d be seeing a lot of bright blue on that side of the map. The last three games, however, bore some improvement. Their unexpected domination of the Falcons pulled grades up towards average.

Their NT, such a key player for their style of defense, is rookie 5^th round pick Jordan Phillips. He’s held his own, but can still be had. Kenneth Grant next to him looks rather bust-y. Even perennial work horse Zach Sieler can’t cover up both of them, and there’s no rotation player to save them either. Given that runners are getting through the first level an awful lot, their interior LB are cleaning up. Jordyn Brooks leads the entire league in tackles; that’s right, both 85 combined and 53 solo are numero uno. Brooks, combined with running mate Tyrel Dodson, also have 5.5 of the team’s 15 sacks. The most interesting part of their front seven are the two EDGE rushers, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. Both are embroiled in trade rumors.  They only have a combined six sacks and 13 QB hits so far this season. I’m curious how many snaps they actually play tonight, because if they get pulled, a bad defense gets a heck of a lot worse.

The injury situation in Miami’s secondary is almost as bad as it is with their offensive line. FS Ashtyn Davis is doubtful to play.  CB Storm Duck – one of the best NFL names I’ve ever heard – just landed on IR next to Artie Burns, Kader Kohou, Jason Maitre, and Jason Marshall Jr., who may or may not be activated from DFR. Again the team must rely on a rookie from Maryland; this time Dante Trader Jr. Rasul Douglas is an admirable veteran at corner, but the Ravens receivers are simply more talented than the secondary they’re playing.

If Lamar plays as expected (I know, last week’s article had to be edited last second but this time it’s for real!) they’re hanging 30 easy on these guys. Right? Right? Well, they should.

Conclusion

Even with all the troubles and the drama surrounding the Ravens, you look at the roster up and down and it’s better than the Dolphins.  In a regular game, on a neutral field, with no extenuating circumstances… this is a blowout in the making.  But we’re not in a regular game (Thursday Night), or a neutral field (on the road), and we certainly have extenuating circumstances (pick your poison). Lamar Jackson did not play the Bears game for this purpose: to avoid the short week and play the Dolphins game. They win this, like they should, and get the mini-bye; the moutainous comeback continues.

They don’t, and the season is cooked and Eric DeCosta must sell at the deadline.

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