Hot/Cold Map: Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Welcome to the first installation of what will become a weekly article that scouts the opponent the Ravens will play.  Each article will start with a graphic that I call a “Hot/Cold Map.”  It shows the twelve players the Ravens will most likely see from the opponent on offense and defense, along with a general idea of where those players will line up.  Each player will be graded based on their recent games along a red/blue gradient: red means they’re on a heater, and blue means they’re in a slump.  The idea is to illustrate where the team can attack the opponent on the field and where to avoid.

In this case there is no data to draw from as this is the first week of the regular season – so I will summarize the Bills players from their 2024 season, whether in Buffalo or elsewhere.

Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense

Last season, the Bills used 11 personnel 55.51% of their snaps, which was only 23^rd in the NFL and five percent lower than the NFL average.  When they did go with the traditional 11 personnel they were very effective in both the pass and run game.  When going with 2TE, they were an impressive 0.36 expected points addded (EPA) per pass attempt.  They used an extra offensive lineman more than any other team, on over 13% of their snaps.  They’re big and nasty and use a power gap blocking scheme.  With largely the same players and same coordinator, we should expect more of the same tendencies.

Josh Allen is fresh off a literal MVP performance, whether we like it or not.  He threw for 7.7 yards per attempt and a touchdown percentage of 5.8%.  Most of his important passing stats were around 7^th in the NFL.  Add to that his 12 rushing touchdowns at a 5.2 YPC clip, and he was… one of… the biggest dual-threat quarterbacks in the league.  Allen is going to put a lot of pressure on the defense in every phase of the game, but the Ravens defense knows this.  He’s no longer sneaking up on anybody.

The running game is complemented well by James Cook, who was top ten at his position in 2024.  He falls in line with their identity.  The Ravens are not going to easily be able to play from dime in this game.  They’ll need a big game from their front seven.

If there is a weakness in the Bills offense, it’s at WR, where the only completely healthy starter they have is Joshua Palmer.  Khalil Shakir should play, but their contested catch specialist Keon Coleman may not.  The WR room is crafty but not very fast outside of Curtis Samuel, who is more of a gadget player than traditional receiver.  Contain Shakir, and the Bills will likely have to turn to their pair of TE, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.  The matchup here favors the Ravens secondary, especially if Kyle Hamilton is allowed to roam.  Hamilton, however, may be needed to shade Josh Allen.

It is rare for a team to return all five starters from an OL that started nearly every game the previous season.  The Bills can say this, and that kind of consistency cannot be understated.  LT Dion Dawkins and C Connor McGovern each made the Pro Bowl, and RT Spencer Brown arguably had a better season than both.  That said, both tackles were among the league leaders in penalties.  The Ravens EDGE players should keep this in mind especially on passing plays, and let the referees know when they are being held.

Bills Defense vs Ravens Offense

The Bills primary defense last season was a 4-2 nickel.  As with the offense, their coordinator Bobby Babich is returning, so not much change is expected.  There is more turnover on this side of the team both via free agency and the draft.

The Bills defensive line is built to rush the passer both inside and outside, starting with the penetrating duo of NT Daquon Jones and 3-Tech Ed Oliver.  Neither tackle is good against the run, and both of their reserves are rookies playing their first game.  Weak side DE Greg Rousseau is an excellent player but had trouble tackling last season.  The team signed Joey Bosa to improve the strong side DE postition, but he played his worst season on a per snap basis last year.  The Ravens can take advantage of all of this – but will have to rely on Charlie Kolar and probably Lucas Scott in a 22 offense to force the Bills to adjust.

The starting LB duo of Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano should be targeted by a TE group.  Bernard struggles in coverage and Milano is now 30 years old with an injury history.  If they’re required to step up to help the run defense, Lamar and company can gash the team behind them.  The X factor in this game is therefore DeAndre Hopkins, whose usage should increase most from the absence of Isaiah Likely.

The secondary will be down two key players in first-round CB Maxwell Hairston (on IR) and former Raven CB Tre’Davious White (who isn’t practicing).  This really hurts them, because Taron Johnson is one of the best slot corners in the league, and may have to move outside for this game.  Cole Bishop, one of their two high safeties, must step up for them this season, and that starts with the Ravens game.  Christian Benford can take one weapon out of the passing game, but the Ravens have more than that.

Conclusion

I don’t personally see how the Bills can stop the Ravens offense, even at home, unless the Ravens get in their own way with penalties and turnovers (which you’ll see I worry about in my prediction for this game).  It’s simply a bad matchup.  If the Ravens offense plays well then, the Ravens defense will only have to slow Josh Allen and the Bills run/play action game down and they will win the game.

BOLD PREDICTIONS: A Divisional Round Rematch

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/09/05/hot-and-cold/hot-cold-bills/