BATTLE PLANS: Ravens Must Bring Discipline, Aggression vs. Allen

Offense

Bread and Butter

Before the Divisional Round, I wrote about the different run concepts the Ravens used to gash the Bills in Week 4:

“The Ravens have gashed 4-3 defenses this year with wham and trap concepts, plus a healthy dose of QB-designed runs, all of which put penetrating defensive linemen in a bind.”

In that second matchup, the Bills also started keeping more defenders in the box against Derrick Henry. He faced a light box 37.5% of the time in Week 4 but only 12.5% of the time in the playoffs. It didn’t stop him from having a good game (5.3 yards per carry), but his longest rush was only 17 yards. That doesn’t mean the Ravens should go away from their bread-and-butter rushing attack on Sunday, but it will require some adjustments due to injuries. Neither Patrick Ricard nor Isaiah Likely are going to play, taking out two key cogs in the heavy personnel attack.

Ricard, of course, is a key blocker on many of the concepts the Ravens used last year. Baltimore can activate Lucas Scott from their practice squad to fill that role, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be as effective as his veteran teammate. It will also make it more difficult to force the Bills defense out of nickel and dime personnel that can then open up the passing game for the Ravens’ tight ends to feast against opposing linebackers. Likely’s absence is a major loss on both fronts. Not only is he a quarterback-friendly target, but he has also grown tremendously as a blocker. Again, a practice squad option like Zaire Mitchell-Paden can fill some of the latter role, but he’s not the same threat through the air.

Anyone who follows the Ravens probably knows where this is going: Charlie Kolar. The fourth-year tight end has also become a strong blocker and has flashed some potential as a pass-catcher. He’s spent more time proving himself as a blocker, making it easy to forget that he was primarily a receiving tight end at Iowa State. At training camp, he used his 6-foot-6 frame and reliable hands to bring in multiple contested catches in the end zone. He’s also a sneaky athlete who can threaten up the seam while also knowing where to sit down against zone coverage.

Kolar was only targeted 11 times last year, but reeled in nine of them for 136 yards, a touchdown, and a 146.6 passer rating when targeted, per PFF.  That’s a small sample size with Kolar typically drawing less attention from the defense – as he himself has admitted – so Sunday will test his ability to step up in a bigger role.

Another way to force the issue with heavy personnel is to go ‘jumbo’ with a sixth offensive lineman. That would probably be Joseph Noteboom, considering that Josh Jones filled that role last year, but Ben Cleveland has also been utilized this way in the past. They can’t match Ricard’s versatility as a blocker, but they can fill some of his role as an inline blocker.

Against a sixth lineman, the Bills may not get out of their nickel personnel, but they will load up the box. The Ravens can still gash stacked boxes on the ground with the mathematical advantage that Jackson can create with his legs, but those looks can also set up max-protect deep shots off of play action. With more defenders drawn into the box and enough pass protection to keep Jackson clean, the Ravens’ receivers – particularly Rashod Bateman, will have opportunities to make plays downfield.

Shift Gears, Change Speeds

Despite the absences of Ricard and Likely, the Ravens’ bread-and-butter heavy attack should still be effective against the Bills. But the offseason addition of DeAndre Hopkins also presents an opportunity to deploy him alongside Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers to spread out the defense. The Ravens were deadly when running out of 11 personnel last year, and now they can add Keaton Mitchell into the fold to exploit open space on the edge of the defense.

If the Bills insist on stacking the box against 11 personnel, the Ravens should be ready to switch gears and attack their secondary. Jackson struggled against man coverage, single-high safety looks, and blitzes in the Divisional Round while dominating against zone and split-safeties. Buffalo will likely take note of that and use the former strategies on Sunday night.

Against man coverage and single-high looks, the Ravens should target the weak link in the secondary. Recently-ex-Raven Tre’Davious White is unlikely to play and will be replaced by Ja’Marcus Ingram, a relatively unproven corner who the Ravens should go after. Using trips on one side can isolate Ingram in a 1-on-1 matchup on the backside. Rashod Bateman has frequently filled that role, but the Ravens’ depth at receiver will allow them to throw different players at Ingram who can win in a variety of ways.

The Ravens have a few options against the blitz. Part of the solution will be Jackson’s pre-snap diagnosis and adjustments. He can use the classic quick-hitters and timing routes as hot reads against the blitz, but he should mix in some max-protect to give his outside receivers more time to win downfield.

The Ravens should also introduce some up-tempo offense into their game plan, especially with their ability to change between run and pass with the same personnel. If they catch the Bills in heavy personnel after converting a short third down on the ground, they can hurry up into a spread formation with both tight ends split into the slot. That offers clear mismatches for Kolar and Mark Andrews while also unloading the box for an opportunity to run. On the flip side, if the Ravens convert a longer third down through the air with 11 personnel, they can condense their formation and attack the Bills while they’re on their heels.

Defense

Containing Allen

The Ravens defense handled the Bills offense well in both matchups last year, and neither side has changed much. Baltimore’s main goal, once again, will be containing Josh Allen. Here’s what I wrote about that last time:

“Allen, however, can be a different beast. Corralling him requires a coordinated rush plan, starting with consistent pocket-pushing by interior rushers. Closing down the space in front of Allen makes it harder for him to pull in edge defenders by feinting upfield before escaping to the outside. Those edge defenders need to stay disciplined, too, working to close the pocket in on Allen without letting him get outside of them. The entire pass rush needs to keep their eyes on the quarterback to keep him from slipping by.”

The Ravens’ four-man rush executed this strategy well in both games last year, getting pressure on Allen without letting him slip away for big scrambles. He did, however, manage to pull off an improbable connection with Khalil Shakir on an extended play in Week 4.

Allen was more effective on designed runs, especially down in the red zone. The Ravens simply can’t let him stampede his way into the end zone once the Bills are inside the 10-yard line. While Kyle Hamilton will likely line up as a deep safety on most plays, he can rove down around the line of scrimmage in the red zone. He’ll need to hunt Allen down if he tries to power his way into the end zone.

Containing Allen through the air will also start with Hamilton. His move back to free safety shut down the deep ball in the playoffs and he’ll need to have a similar impact on Sunday. The Ravens should still try to deploy him around the line of scrimmage, but on obvious passing downs, his athleticism and instincts can make him an eraser on the back end of the defense.

At this point, though, Hamilton is the kind of player that opposing offenses game plan for (or just outright avoid). The Bills may be more willing to test Malaki Starks in what will be a ‘rubber meets the road’ matchup for the Ravens’ first-round pick. By all accounts, he’s ready to step into a starting role and execute his coverage assignments. But the real challenge will be his adjustments to extended plays. Starks will have to be careful not to overcommit in coverage when Allen breaks the pocket and instead use his length and athleticism to plaster receivers downfield. Crucially, he can’t let receivers get behind him when Allen starts running around behind the line of scrimmage.

Pick The Moments To Attack

The Ravens’ four-man rush contained Allen in the Divisional Round, but they didn’t pressure him as much as they did in Week 4. That’s partially due to Allen’s significantly decreased time to throw as part of a plan to attack with quick hitters. The Ravens did well collapsing on screens in both matchups, but they used too much off-coverage in the playoffs. With split-safeties behind them, the Ravens’ cornerbacks need to come up and play the Bills’ receivers right off the line of scrimmage. It doesn’t always have to be a true physical press – Jaire Alexander is excellent at disrupting the offense’s timing by varying his pre-snap approach – but he and Wiggins need to be on their matchups right away.

As long as Allen isn’t getting the ball out right away, the Ravens should be able to get pressure on him with four rushers. They now have Mike Green to add to Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy off the edge (plus the underrated Tavius Robinson) and Travis Jones seems poised for a breakout year. His size will draw double-teams, freeing up other rushers for 1-on-1 matchups elsewhere. The Ravens should especially try to isolate Bills right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, a massive but slow-footed blocker who struggles with faster pass rushers. That’s definitely an opportunity for Nnamdi Madubuike, but Zach Orr could also use some inverted rush formations with Kyle Van Noy or Odafe Oweh lined up over Torrence.

Is a four-man rush with tight man coverage on the outside an unoriginal, rather vanilla defensive scheme? Sure, but according to Next Gen Stats, Allen had the sixth-lowest completion percentage against man coverage with 4 pass rushers or fewer. The Ravens defense has a talent advantage and should force the Bills not named Josh Allen to make the plays to beat them.

As a result, blitzing won’t be a big part of the game plan. The Ravens should be especially cautious about bringing Cover 0 blitzes against Allen, but they could use some 3-3-5 ‘penny’ looks to get five pass rushers on the field. That offers opportunities to blitz with five as well as execute simulated pressures with the edge rushers dropping back into throwing lanes to force Allen to hold onto the ball. Trenton Simpson could also be used as a QB spy/delayed blitzer whose job is to mirror Allen near the line of scrimmage and chase him down once there’s an open lane.

Though the Ravens have frequently spoken about forcing more turnovers, it takes discipline and patience just as much as aggressiveness and disruptiveness to accomplish that. It’s less about taking a lot of risks and more about getting your opponent to take them for you. By mixing a traditional four-man rush/man coverage play call with zone blitzes and simulated pressures, the Ravens can try to bait Allen into making a mistake.

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