The Baltimore Bizarro Ravens

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 7 Games

Around the end of the third quarter of the Tampa game, I texted in the family chat:

Y’know what’s crazy? We’re up 34-10, and I kind of think Tampa has played better than Baltimore

It reminded me of many, many games from the pre-Harbs/pre-Flacco Billick era, where the Ravens were bigger/stronger/faster than their opponent, more physical, played better defense – and lost because the other team “got lucky” with a quick-strike score or a blown coverage.  In the 1st quarter, and at times in the 4th, the Bucs defense just overwhelmed the Ravens O-line.  The Ravens looked like a juggernaut when they played teams without a big defensive front with a stud centerpiece: Dallas, Buffalo, Cincy, Washington.  Then they go to Tampa, with Vita Vea at the nose, and suddenly their O-line looks it did in the Kansas City & Raiders games.  Scary.

This time the Ravens were on the right side of it, which certainly feels better than those old games felt.  But it didn’t exactly inspire me with confidence.  On the Manning Cast, after the bizarro bad snap early in the 3rd, Eli said “Baltimore can look so good, but then they have some of these plays….”  That’s exactly it.  They can look so, so good.  And then they have some plays on offense where someone on the O-line completely blows it.

This is the dichotomy of the 2024 Ravens.  They’re the most un-Ravens team this century.  They score like a pinball machine, but their physicality can be questioned on the O-line, their attention to detail on defense has been (to put it politely) lacking, and they’ve given up two conversions on on-side kicks this year (no other team has given up any).

It’s kind of hard to grasp just how good the Ravens have been on offense.  They’re the #1 offense in yards-per-play (combined pass & run).  Their 7.2 yards-per-play is almost a full yard over the Lions & Niners at 6.4.  In fact it’s higher than the current NFL record, the Greatest Show On Turf Rams of 1999, which averaged 6.98 yards-per-play (hat-tip to Kyle Goon of the Baltimore Banner).  DVOA has the Ravens as the 4th-best offense ever through seven games, on par with the Imperfect Patriots of 2007 and other juggernauts.  The Ravens are either #1 or #2 in every significant offensive efficiency stat I pay attention to:

• Yards per play: #1
• Points per drive: #2
• Scoring pct.: #2
• 3rd-down conversion pct.: #2
• Red Zone TD pct.: #1
• Offensive DVOA: #1
• Passing YTS: #1

ESPN’s “Football Power Index” also has them as the #1 offense, 6.1 points better than an “average offense.”  Amazing.  We Ravens fans saw something like this in 2019; but that was different.  That was a unique scheme.  This is a “conventional” NFL offense – it makes 2019 look like a gadget offense of trick plays – that just happens to be so damn good as to lead the league.

But they can be blown up on the O-line.  Nothing derails a top-flight offense more completely than a great defensive front.  Remember what happened to the Imperfect Patriots in the Super Bowl against Michael Strahan & Justin Tuck?  Remember what happened when the Broncos of Peyton Manning’s 55 TD passes ran into the Legion of Doom Seahawks in the Super Bowl?  Bill Belichick was on the Manning Cast and HE said the problem with the Ravens offense was pass protection.  Then over and over again he said “See?  Pass-pro.”  It was a little depressing.

(He also said their problem on defense was pass rush.  At one point: “See?  No pass rush.”  Also depressing.)

Are you confident the Ravens would’ve won that game if Mike Evans hadn’t gotten hurt?  I’m not. One way to look at the game is that a talented upstart was firing on all cylinders and took the lead; then their best player got hurt and they deflated.  They regrouped and made a game of it late, but the damage had been done.  That’s a persuasive narrative; and it’s not one that paints the Ravens as a Super Bowl favorite.

There is, of course, an “other hand.”  As in, “on the other hand.”

The Ravens were on the road against a top-10 team (by DVOA).  Tampa fell a bit with this game, but they’re still the #8 offense.  That’s the “survive and advance” portion of the schedule, not the “style points” portion.  Ed Reed was also on the Manning Cast  – yeah I watched the whole game that way; had absolutely no tolerance for Joe Buck & Troy Aikman – and Ed said “You gotta win road games, you know, and you gotta win ’em any way you can.”  Rolling off 31 unanswered points, that’s a pretty good “way.”  Then you have to hold on against the #8 offense at their place, and the Ravens did.  Plenty of great teams win on the backs of their offense, while the defense just slows down the opponent enough. That hasn’t been the Ravens recipe – like, not once this century – but it’s valid.  It’s been valid when other teams have done it.  Technically there should be no reason the Ravens can’t do it.

But man, that first quarter made me nervous.  Defense and O-line: whew!

Know Justice, Know Peace

Just look at this blitz pick-up:

Justice Hill laughs at your blitzes pic.twitter.com/YXNjyLsDTg

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 23, 2024

Justice Hill has positively been a hero this season.  I’m not sure he hasn’t been the best player in the Ravens passing game (non-Lamar edition).  Unbelievable.

This Week’s Most Insightful Analysis

Derrick Henry is The Nanny.  Yes.

“The nanny is the one that affords you to have one-on-one time with your significant other. And that’s what Derrick Henry is doing for these wide receivers… You ain’t gotta worry about no kid pooping while you’re trying to go out on your date…” – Marcus Spears pic.twitter.com/0ggp9e5fl0

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) October 21, 2024

Go, Nanny, go!

DERRICK HENRY BREAKS OFF AN 81-YARD RUN.

: #BALvsTB on ESPN/ABC
: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/xXVR93t3uI

— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2024

Let’s make this happen, people.  Best Running Back nickname in the history of civilization.  “The Nanny.”

With great stats comes great responsibility

This week Lamar Jackson became just the sixth QB in NFL history to post five or more games with 5+ Touchdowns and zero Interceptions.  The other QBs are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger.  Those other QBs all started way more than 200 games – Brady started more than 300 – while Lamar has started just 84 (reg-season) career games.  That’s the way the stat was presented.

That’s deceptive, right?  Yeah, Aaron Rodgers has started 231 career (reg-season) games; but he got his fifth 5 TD/0 INT game way before this week’s slate of games. Big Ben started 247 games; but he didn’t get his fifth 5/0 in his last start.  He was a noodle-armed game manager the last couple years of his career.  Peyton Manning started 265, but he got his fifth 5/0 about 2½ years before his last start.  (In fact he got it against the Ravens, in a super annoying game.)

The right number to use for comparison is the number it took to get the milestone.

This is technically accurate but misleading. It shows CAREER starts: but those other QBs accomplished their high TD / no INT total before their last game.
The right way is to list how many starts it took each player to achieve their total.
(Data from @pfref)
(Lamar still insane.) pic.twitter.com/G9ekC1RzSY

— jimzipcode.bsky.social (@zip_jim) October 23, 2024

I guess this is just an asterisk; a pedant’s footnote.  Cue nasal nerd voice: “Well, actually.”  But it bugged me.  Lamar is awesome; using stats irresponsibly can detract from that message, rather than convey it.

Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

(Data from PFR)

Last week a career day for Zay Flowers; this week a career day for Rashod Bateman.  This was (only) his third career hundred-yard game; his previous career high was 108 yds, set vs. Miami in 2022 (the game in Baltimore where the Dolphins came back in the 4th quarter to win).

Look how far down that table you have to go to find an incomplete pass!  Passing to his top six receivers, Lamar was 14-for-14.  This game was Lamar’s 8th career appearance on Monday Night Football.  Basically half a season.  He’s 6-2 in those games.  His cumulative stat line in those games is ridiculous.  Ready?

149 of 217 (68.7%) for 1772 yards (8.2 yds-per-attempt) with 20 TDs and 0 INTs, for a passer rating of 124.0, and 79 rushes for 629 yards (8 yds-per-carry).

Some of Lamar’s most memorable career games have come on MNF.  His first appearance was that 2019 game against the Rams, where he threw 5 TD passes then sat on the bench laughing the whole 4th quarter.  His 440-yard game against Indy in 2021 was a Monday night game.  Anyway: double that for a projected season total.  Imagine a season of 69% completions with 8 yds-per with 40 TDs and no INTs and 1200+ yards rushing.  That’s insa – oh wait, that’s pretty much what Lamar did in 2019. For Lamar it’s always 2019 on Monday nights.

After being shut out the first five games, Mark Andrews has caught TDs in back-to-back games. Here’s his last three:

(Data from PFR)

I suppose we’ll never know if anything was “wrong” the first four weeks of the season.  Remember he was in a car accident in August.  The Ravens insisted he was fine; never put him on the injury report; never gave him any kind of injury designation.  I suspect that was a “little white lie” and Andrews was not 100%.  Teams aren’t supposed to do that, but he didn’t look right.  Whatever: he’s baaaaack.

Season Stats & Leaderboard

Here are your full-season stats to date:

(Data from PFR)

Flowers is 18th in the league in receiving yards; Bateman is right behind him at 21st.  They’re both on pace for 900-yard seasons (through 16 games).  Andrews & Isaiah Likely & Hill are all on pace for around 500.

Bateman is 4th in the league in yards-per-target.  He’s 5th in YTS.  Andrews is 18th in yds-per-target, 11th in Success Rate.

JHill is 3rd in receiving yards among Running Backs.  His YTS is 6th among RBs with 10+ targets.

Tez Walker sighting!  Walker has been freed from the ranks of inactives!  He played 11 snaps on special teams.  Made a tackle on punt coverage (last punt of the game, about 1:40 left to play).  This might not sound like much, but it’s a significant milestone.  On John Harbaugh’s Ravens, the #5 WR better be able to play special teams, or he doesn’t have a roster spot.  Making plays on special teams is Walker’s path to being active on game days; and that is what can lead to eventual targets.  Otherwise he’s waiting around for injury; Walker isn’t leapfrogging  anyone. WRs 1 & 2 are locked-in and having great seasons; Nelson Agholor & Tylan Wallace are combining for 8.7 yards-per-target.  If you want to see Tez Walker, as I really really do, then root for him to make more tackles on special teams.

Jackson leads the league in Passer Rating.  That’s right.  Lamar’s lead over the #2 guy is substantial; here’s everyone with Passer Rating of 100+ right now:

I’m not saying the reason I went nine deep on that table is just to show how Joe Flacco’s doing, and I’m not saying it isn’t.  You understand.

Lamar is also 1st in Net Yards Per Attempt.  He’s 2nd (tied) in TDs, 5th in yards, 6th in QBR

Lamar Jackson among QBs through Week 7

– No. 1 in total yards
– No. 1 in passer rating
– No. 1 in net yards per attempt
– No. 1 in adjusted yards per attempt
– No. 2 in passing TDs
– No. 2 in yards per attempt
– No. 2 in yards per completion
– No. 2 in passing success rate pic.twitter.com/EwdalLSePk

— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) October 22, 2024

Also, Lamar can be a pretty damn good blocker:

Lamar deadass might love Derrick Henry. Y’all see the shit he just did for him? pic.twitter.com/mG2KdI9rCo

— Lamar & Order: RPO (@moneymarlo44) October 22, 2024

Is this dude all-in on winning, or what??

Your Ravens are the new #1 overall team in Total DVOA. By component they’re #1 in offense and up to #13 in defense – and #19 in special teams, which is low for the Ravens of the Harbaugh/Justin Tucker era.  Such a surprising package of strengths & weaknesses, the 2024 Ravens have been so far.  The DVOA top 5 is rounded out by the Lions, Vikings, Chiefs & Bills.

DVOA’s playoff odds has the Ravens at 98.2% to make the playoffs, which is 2nd in the AFC behind the Chiefs.  And they have them as the team most likely to win the Super Bowl, at better than one-in-five of their simulations.

Next Up

The Ravens travel to Cleveland to face the incredibly woeful Brownies.  The Brownies have been one of the very worst passing offenses of the past 40 years, by DVOA. Deshaun Watson’s horrifying injury put him out of Cleveland’s misery, so the Ravens will see Jameis Winston.  They’ll likely be smidge better than they have been – they could hardly be anything else.

Let’s talk about rest advantage.  Rest advantage is when your team has had more days off leading up to the game than your opponent has.

In Week 1 the Ravens played on Thursday Night Football.  No one has a rest advantage in the season opener; but in Week 2, the Ravens opponent had played on Sunday, so the Ravens were +3 in rest advantage.  In Week 4, the Ravens played the Bills on Sunday.  The Ravens had played the previous Sunday; but the Bills had played on Monday Night Football the week before, so the Bills were -1 in rest advantage.  Or rather, the Ravens were +1.

This past week, the Ravens & Bucs played on Monday Night Football, and neither had a rest advantage.  But next week, both of their opponents will have a +1 rest advantage.  That’s the smallest rest advantage; teams have been playing Monday Night Football for ~50 years.  It’s a long, long-standing part of the game.

The Ravens schedule this year is extremely rest-friendly.  They have only two games all season at a rest disadvantage, and both of those are just the 1-day, MNF-to-Sunday schedule.  Here’s their whole season with rest advantage:

Their net of +16 is actually the best full-season rest-advantage that any team has had since the advent of Thursday Night Football.  It’s a hidden story of the 2024 Ravens.  They have five games with a rest advantage.  Unfortunately, they’ve already squandered one of them (Raiders), and they have two more are against teams that suck (Giants & Browns).

I don’t think their rest-advantage games are going to be much of a factor on their year, except that it’ll nice to have a little extra for that game at Pittsburgh in Week 11.  Also I don’t think Thursday Night Football is truly a neutral situation.  I’d give a +.5 to the host and a -.5 to the road team on a Thursday night game after Sunday; so that’s a little extra for the rematch with the Bengals.  No: but I think the paucity of rest-disadvantage games for the Ravens this season is going to be helpful.

Do you remember the game against the Cardinals last year?  The Ravens had been at Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, in London for the Titans, home against Detroit, then flew to Arizona for the Cards.  I thought they were dragging ass that week. Harbs had the sniffles in his press conferences, Todd Monken’s voice was even more gravelly than usual, and the players had trouble with a not-very-good Cardinals team.  There is nothing remotely like that in this season’s schedule: no brutal travel itinerary hidden by a neutral rest schedule, no great rest disadvantage hidden in a light travel schedule. It’s an easy a very manageable schedule in terms of travel and rest.

Anyway: this week is the first game of the Ravens season at a rest disadvantage.  Something to be aware of.

The post The Baltimore Bizarro Ravens appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/10/23/street-talk/the-baltimore-bizarro-ravens/