Four Downs: A Race to 20-Something?

The Baltimore Ravens are coming out of the haze produced by their disappointing performance against the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens are playing a Broncos team that is surprisingly 5-3 with a rookie quarterback and a stingy defense. When the NFL schedule came out, most Ravens fans penciled this game in as a win.

Here are the four things we need to think about if they want to make the average fan correct.

First Down: Avoid Negative Plays

The Broncos give up an average of just 15 points per game. They have seven players with multiple sacks with Nik Bonitto leading the way with six. Zach Allen has become a force at the defensive end position. The Boston College product has four sacks and 10 tackles for loss, has a habit of winning with his first step off the snap, and is a hard man to for running backs to get around. The Broncos have a secondary that is dangerous and Patrick Surtain II has three interceptions. Denver has forced five fumbles and they’ve recovered five also. This is a defense with playmakers that is elevating an offense that is on the rookie quarterback roller coaster.

The main objective for the Ravens is to stay out of bad situations. Broncos opponents convert on third downs just over 36 percent of the time. Defensively, Denver is one of the best teams at winning on first and second down. Their entire goal is to make third down an uncomfortable passing down. Third downs will be the secret key to this game. Keep an eye on the average distance the Ravens need to earn to pick up a first down on these plays. If it’s less than five yards, the Ravens are probably going to win. If it’s more like eight or nine yards the Broncos will probably come out on top.

Lamar Jackson’s greatest strength against great defenses is the number of negative plays he can avoid. This is one of those games where Jackson’s abilities as a scrambler and a runner could make all the difference. If I’m betting on a winner in the trenches, I’d have to place my chips with the Denver defensive front over the Ravens’ offensive line.

As Jim pointed out earlier today, the Ravens Achilles heel may be stout defensive front lines.

Jackson’s ability to break a conventional defense and to punish them even when they do everything right because they just can’t catch him needs to be the difference in the game. This is a game where Jackson can put the offense on his back. It may be one of his toughest weeks as a passer but look for him to make a huge difference on the ground and by creating extra chances in the passing game with his legs.

Second Down: The King Must Force The Issue

I feel like every week we hear a line about how Derrick Henry heats up as the game gets going and it gets harder to tackle him in the fourth quarter. The Ravens need to remember this note the commentators always have at the top of their index cards and never go away from what he brings in the run game. The Broncos only give up 106.4 rushing yards per game, which is on the stingier side of things in the NFL. Handing the ball to Henry is a good way to get positive yards that can set up those critically important third down situations.

If Henry isn’t breaking loose in the fourth quarter it doesn’t matter – he must remain an active element of the Baltimore offense. In a league all about offense, the Ravens are playing as old school of a football team as they can face. A perfect antidote to this is running the rock and breaking the will of the defense. Think of this game like a contest in the early 2000’s or a battle of Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots. The most physical team that wants it the most is going to win the game. Frankly, after the Browns game the Ravens have something to prove in this department.

The worst thing that Todd Monken can do in this game is to get away from the running game. This unleashes the Broncos to tee off on Jackson and put all their energy into ruining his day. The Ravens don’t have to give Henry 30 carries, they just can’t let Denver forget that Henry is coming for them.

Third Down: Get Right Game For The Defense, or Rock Bottom?

Bo Nix is a dangerous quarterback in the sense that he kind of plays backyard football and uses his athleticism to make things happen. Don’t get it twisted though: he’s a rookie that is having plenty of rookie moments. He started the season with a two-interception outing against the Seattle Seahawks and a passer rating of 47.5. He’s had four games this year with a passer rating under 80. The Broncos strategy is obviously to have him complete high percentage passes and lean on his running ability whenever he faces a moment of doubt. He can make the throws, as evidenced by his 284 yards and three touchdowns against the Panthers. It’s a reminder to the Ravens that if they mess up he can make them pay. Still, on paper, this should be one of the best matchups for a Ravens defense that needs to get right.

Only seven teams in the NFL earn fewer yards per game than the Broncos. The lifeblood of the Broncos’ offense is the run game. Javonte Williams is their leading rusher with 345 yards, yet Nix is right behind him with 52 attempts and 259 yards. The Broncos are even backfield-centric with the passing attack. Williams has only two fewer receptions than Courtland Sutton (their only real weapon at wide receiver). Williams averages 6.4 yards as nothing more than a desperately needed safety valve for Nix, who loses perspective on what goes on downfield the second he is pressured and his legs take over.

The Ravens know exactly what is coming. They have to have a game plan to stop the run first and force Nix into tough spots. They need to have blitzes that either contain Nix in a pressured pocket or that flush him out away from his safety valves and hot routes. The Ravens know exactly what’s coming because the Broncos are a limited offense that looks similar week to week.

If the Ravens leave this game with a L, the defense will probably be the biggest culprit. If Nix gets anywhere near 300 yards in the air it will be an absolute indictment on the secondary and the lack of pass rush. If the Broncos run for 140-200 yards, it will be the Ravens failing to stop the one thing they knew was coming their way.

Put simply, if the defense struggles against the Broncos…there isn’t an excuse that will work for them.

Fourth Down: A Race to What?

The advertisers have no trouble with this game. It’s billed as the unstoppable Ravens offense against the immovable object that is the Denver Broncos defense. Either one side will completely have their way or the outcome will meet in the middle. The question is how many points do the Ravens need to win this game?

I think this is a race to 24 points.

The Broncos average 21.6 points per game while the Ravens average 30.3. The theory that the outcome will meet in the middle of the two team’s strengths supports the idea that this is a race to ~24 points. Denver doesn’t want to get into a shootout and the Ravens don’t want to get dirty in a suspenseful fourth quarter brawl. The Broncos entire game plan is to slow down the Ravens, knowing that Jackson is an MVP level player that’s going to make his plays. They know they need to keep the football away from Jackson as long as they can.

One interesting factor is that both teams have an interest in limiting the other team’s chances. The Broncos offensive attack may not seem overly intimidating, but the Ravens don’t have confidence on the defensive side of things. Both teams should in theory lean on their ground game and attempt to possess the football for drives that eat up big chunks of time. This could be a game where the Ravens only have five or six possessions so 24-28 points might be all they can muster, even in an efficient day of work. This strikes me as a 24-17 kind of game one way or another. Turnovers could elevate the point total one way or another. That is the X-Factor for both of these teams. On paper, this seems like a race to the mid-20s.

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