Drops, Sure – But the Ravens O Has a “BIG DL” Problem

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 8 Games

When you take the lead with 2:30 to play, kick off to the opponent, and then lose the game, it’s tempting to blame the defense.  “Defensive collapse!”  Lots of smart observers hold this view.  Here’s DVOA’s Aaron Schatz:

The Ravens are adding Diontae Johnson to one of the top offenses DVOA has ever measured through half a season.

The Ravens offense was still great against the Browns even though the pass defense was awful. pic.twitter.com/nodlFxsT8k

— Aaron Schatz (@ASchatzNFL) October 29, 2024

The great parts of the performance included racking up 6.2 yards-per-play for the game, which is about a full yard lower than the Ravens average, but would still be the #5 offense in the NFL if it were the full-year stat.  They scored 24 points on the road against a decent defense; 24 points-per-game would rank 13th in the league this year.  The Ravens could easily have tacked on another six or even nine: they turned down field goal attempts on their first and last drive, and missed one in between.  The second-highest scoring team in the league scores 30.4 points per game (that’s the Ravens!); the highest-scoring team gets 33.4 (Detroit).

So statistically the game profiles as a good performance by the offense.  Many of the think-pieces around the league are on the theme of, “What’s wrong with the defense??”

Fair enough.

But this is a column about offense.  The Ravens were down almost the entire 4th quarter.  They entered the quarter down three, then gave up a FG with about 10 mins left to go down six.  They didn’t do enough BEFORE that last go-head drive to put themselves in good position to win.  One fundamental tenet this column holds is that every defensive “collapse” is a game where the offense could have done more to make the lead secure.  This game is no exception.

The Ravens had ten drives before the last possession that started with 59 seconds on the clock.  They scored touchdowns on three of them.  That gives us seven drives to look at.  What were the letdowns? (I’m labeling the drives with letters, because the box score on PFR numbers the drives.  The Ravens scored a touchdown on Drive #5, so we’ll skip that one and the 5th drive we look at will actually be the Ravens’ 6th drive of the game; letter E.)

A: Drive #1

The Ravens took the opening kickoff and drove down to the Cleveland 16.  On 1st-&-10 Derrick Henry gained a yard.  After offsetting penalties on the next snap, Ronnie Stanley was then called for holding, which brought up 2nd-&-19.  Lamar tossed to Isaiah Likely to pick up 14.  Then on 3rd-&-5 Lamar was flushed out and lofted a floater that Mark Andrews made a sliding catch on, picking up 4.  That brought up 4th-&-1 at the 7.  Harbs elected to go for it.

The Ravens in the Lamar Era have generally been aggressive on 4th down (except for last season!)  It makes sense.  Lamar poses a big challenge to defenses.  Derrick Henry compounds it.  But here’s the problem:

Lamar is a challenge for defenses when he has the ball, esp with an option to pass.  Derrick Henry is a multiplier for Lamar when they are together in the backfield.  Splitting Lamar off to the right like this Nerfs both of those weapons.  You can see the Browns Defensive Back (yellow tag) trotting over to cover Lamar, but he sure ain’t hustling.  He looks like he doesn’t fully believe it (as he shouldn’t).  Henry doesn’t help: he calls for the snap before the defender gets out there.

The Browns have ten in the box without that defender, versus nine Ravens blockers.  As a run play, this is not set up for success.

But this formation could be a touchdown!  Henry has thrown four “pop passes” in his career.  One of them was to Ryan Tannehill against the Ravens in the 2019 playoff game – sorry, that reference should’ve come with a trigger warning.  Anyway: Henry could take the snap, run forward one step, and then loft it to Lamar in the end zone.  Easy Peasey.

As run, this play call is somewhere between “unimaginative” and “coaching malpractice.”  There’s no reason Henry couldn’t line up with a choice.  Count the box, and if the numbers are bad (or Lamar is as uncovered as here) then throw it.

When we critique 4th-down tries, we consider two things: the decision to go, and the play call.  I did not love the decision. The 4th-down bot disagrees with me:

—> BAL (0) @ CLE (0) BAL has 4th & 1 at the CLE 7, Q1 08:48

Recommendation (STRONG): Go for it (+3 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) Direct snap to D.Henry. D.Henry right guard to CLV 10 for -3 yards (J.Owusu-Koramoah; M.H pic.twitter.com/hisBpJQ0qu

— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 27, 2024

I didn’t love the decision; but I hate the play call.  I mean, I love the call if Henry had thrown it.  But as a run, I hate it.   The Ravens interior OL has not been a strength at any point this season.  The Browns have a good front.  The physical matchup is not advantageous; the numbers are bad; and Henry evidently doesn’t have an option.  Bad, bad, bad.

This was the first game this season where the Ravens did not score on their opening drive.  It wound up costing them the game.  They final margin was five points.  A pass to Lamar would have been seven.  The field goal would be three, which means the Ravens would’ve been down only two on that final drive, so they could’ve taken the FG for the win when they got down to the Cleveland 24 with 22 seconds on the clock.  Bad, bad, bad.

B: Drive #2

Ravens receive the kickoff late in the 1st after Cleveland gets a field goal on their opening drive.  Lamar picks up a dozen on a scramble, then Derrick Henry busts a big one down to the Cleveland 20.  The Ravens get stoned on a first-down run by Justice Hill to bring up 2nd-&-10.  Lamar drops back, and:

Roger Rosengarten oversets a bit to deal with Za’Darius Smith’s speed.  Smith (red arrow) long-arms him to get separation, and Rosengarten winds up giving up the inside. This gives Smith Lamar on a silver platter; but Lamar being Lamar, he dances away.  Unfortunately, Stanley was trying to direct his man around the pocket, so Lamar’s move puts him straight into Ogbonnia Okoronkwo’s arms.  This was Stanley’s first sack-given-up this season, after about 220 pass-blocking snaps.  There oughtta be a way to charge it to Rosengarten.

It brings up 3rd-&-21.  Zay Flowers makes a quintuple move, stumbles a bit coming out of his break on one of the moves (I think the 3rd) and is just a step-&-a-half short of where he needs to be to catch the wide-open touchdown:

Justin Tucker kicks the FG to tie.  I primarily blame Rosengarten for the situation.  Don’t know who to blame for the incomplete.  This pic makes it look like an overthrow, but Flowers does stumble on the route.  The ball crosses the goal line at about shoulder-height for Flowers, so it’s not like the throw could be much better.  I haven’t seen the All-22 to see where Flowers was when Lamar released the ball.

C: Drive #3

Baltimore forced a punt on the next possession, and got the ball back on their own 13 with 10:26 left in the 2nd.  Short pass to Charlie Kolar over the middle broken up; Lamar up the middle for one; that brings up 3rd-&-9.  Lamar floats one a little behind Nelson Agholor:

I think this is a bad throw from Lamar.  It should be a little out in front; and we can see from the still that there is space.  Instead the defender has a chance to make a play, and the throw is nearly picked-off.

3-&-out, punt.

D: Drive #4

The Browns put together a 10-play, 9-minute drive for a field goal.  The Ravens get the ball back with about 3:40 left in the half.  On first down:

Flowers gets hit and doesn’t maintain control all the way through the ground.  It’s a good hit to dislodge, but this ball is all the way into Flowers’ hands.  Fine throw from Lamar.  It needs to be a catch.  On 2nd-&-10 Lamar scrambles for a big gain, but a ref saw holding by Tyler Linderbaum here:

Linderbaum is in front of Lamar, about dead center in this pic. He was squared up with his man, but now his man is trying to get off the block and tackle Lamar.  The game announcers said this call was “a little ticky-tacky.”  I’d say it’s somewhere between “ticky-tack” and “complete bullshit.”  We can’t quite see what Linderbaum is doing with his right hand.  (Linderbaum’s left paw is visible behind the defender, clearly off of him.)  Maybe he’s got a fistful of jersey? But the instant of time when Linderbaum loses the frame as the defender tries to disengage is very short.  There’s no obvious “pull” slowing up the defender.  (I’d even believe that Linderbaum tried to grab some jersey to slow the defender, but failed.)  It’s a phantom call.

The penalty makes it 2nd-&-19.  Lamar picks up 5 on a short pass to Andrews over the middle.  On the ensuing 3rd-&-14:

This is a nice play by the DB.  The pic suggests that he may have his left arm on Flowers, but in motion you can see that he doesn’t. Just a good play.

Another 3-&-out, punt.  The Flowers non-catch and the phantom hold killed the drive.

E: Drive #6

The Ravens scored their first TD of the game off a turnover late in the 1st half, on an 11-yd pass to Agholor.  The Browns took the 2nd-half kickoff and drove for a touchdown.  This is the first Ravens drive of the 2nd half.  Andrews drew a pass interference to move the ball past midfield.

On 1st-&10 from the 49 Lamar gains 7 on a run to the right.  Then Henry gets stonewalled and loses 2.  That brings up 3rd-&-5:

The Hands of Agholor giveth (the TD at the end of the half), and the Hands of Agholor taketh away (this drop).  It’s the package deal you get when you sign him in free agency.  In-&-out!  Ravens punt.

F: Drive #8

After scoring a TD midway through the 3rd, the Ravens gave up an answering TD and got the ball back, down 3, with 2 mins remaining in the quarter.  They drive to the Cleveland 34 on a couple penalties against the Browns and a few solid Henry runs.  On 1st-&-10 from the 34 Henry picks up another 7.  A false start on Ronnie Stanley sets them back to 2nd-&-8.  Then we get this:

This pass goes down as intended for Rashod Bateman in the box score, but of course it never gets anywhere near him.

One of the jobs of an O-lineman on obvious passing downs is to control the pass rusher, frame or arms, so that he can’t do exactly that.  That’s big Daniel Faalale that Shelby Harris is jumping over.  If you feel like this is ringing a bell, congratulations on a great memory.  The Browns won their previous matchup with the Ravens, that one in Baltimore, and one of the huge plays was Cleveland’s Ogbonnia Okoronkwo elevating to deflect a Lamar pass.  Here’s last year’s 4th-quarter deflection:

That one last year turned into a pick-6 for Greg Newsome.  On this year’s 4th-quarter deflection, Myles Garrett had a chance at it, but he couldn’t track it in the sun and it fell harmlessly.  That, my friends, is the literary technique of foreshadowing.  Anyway, the incomplete pass brought up 3rd-&-8, and:

On a big screen in high-def you can see that the ball is between Bateman’s arms, but not really under control.  He wound up slinging the ball away from himself in a smooth motion: the ball enters from his right and is slung out to his left past the big number 30 and out of bounds, almost like he meant to do it.  What I think happened is, he knows he’s short of the first-down, so as the ball approaches he’s planning to make a move.  Ball arrives, he squares up to the defender (you can see from his helmet where he’s looking) and – oops, forgot something!

Tucker missed the ensuing FG attempt.  These 5 or 6 yards that Bateman doesn’t get here were important.

G: Drive #9

The Ravens D forced a 3-&-out on the next possession, and the Browns punted, pinning the Ravens DEEP in their own territory: on the 6 yard line!  The Ravens pick up a first down out to the 19.  Then Lamar gains another 5 off left end.  That brings up 2nd-&-5, and the Ravens go back to the well of running Lamar:

WOW, the Browns played that perfectly!  It’s zone read.  Za’Darius Smith is in Justice Hill’s face so the “give” is not the correct option.  Linebacker Mohamoud Diabate has replaced perfectly, filling the gap where Lamar is supposed to go on the “keep” read.  Lamar tries to make a guy miss, but he wins up losing 9 on the play.  Just fantastic defense for the play call.  That brings up 3rd-&-14, and:

Bateman has a gift for enraging the fanbase with the most embarrassing-looking drops.  This play is not worse than Agholor’s drop.  It’s not more impactful than Flowers’ failure to control the ball through the ground from the first half.  But it just looks friggin’ terrible.  It looks worse than either play.  It’s not just a drop, but it’s also funny (or ghastly).  His earlier “sling the ball away” drop also looked silly.  Last year Bateman also had a high-leverage drop, this time in the end zone in Pittsburgh.  Ravens receivers had a zillion other drops in that game, all of them costly, but that’s the play people remember, because it looked so hideous.

Bateman told reporters after the game that he was tracking the ball the whole way, which you can tell, but then at the last moment it merged with the sun – which you can also tell, because he just loses all coordination at the last instant.  He stumbles, his hands come open passively.  We can tell from how the shadows lie that Bateman is looking straight into the sun.  He continued, “I can’t do nothing about that.”  That’s probably true.  It happens.  Major League Baseball players, who KNOW the ball’s exact launch point and exactly when it’s taking off, still occasionally lose a ball in the sun.  Even with their fancy flip-down sunglasses.

But holy geez, what a bad look.  And the explanation isn’t going to endear him to any fans.

Here, just cuz I know some people will want to enjoy the hate, is an even worse-looking angle on that play:

Doink!  I guess we should take a moment to appreciate the throw from Lamar.  He literally put it right in his receiver’s face from 50 yards away.

Anyway: that forced the punt.  The Ravens were down 3 at that point, with a little over 9 mins to play.  They would go on to score another touchdown; but the Browns put up another 9 points (a FG and a TD with a missed 2-pt try), and that was the game.

Summary

The media coverage after the game emphasized Ravens drops – on defense too (dropped interceptions).  But when we look at these seven drives we see systemic issues across the board:

• Tactical coaching: the 4th-down try on the opening drive; also, the decision to punt in the 3rd quarter, mentioned next section.
• OL play: Rosengarten giving up the inside leading to a sack, Stanley false start, Faalale letting his man jump for the deflection.
• Holding call on Linderbaum, that could be grouped with OL play, but was probably bullshit.
• At least one bad throw from Lamar (to Agholor, undercut and nearly picked) and maybe two (deep shot to Flowers).
• A couple excellent plays by the defense: pass defense on Agholor and zone read with Hill.
• And yeah, drops: Flowers, Agholor, Bateman 2x.

To me, putting this loss down to “drops” obscures the issue.  When the Ravens play a team with good big guys on the defensive front, their OL gets exposed and they put themselves into holes behind the chains.  It happened against the Chiefs (Chris Long, George Karlaftis); it happened against the Raiders (Maxximum Crosby and Christian Wilson); and it happened against the Browns (Garrett, Shelby H).  The Ravens lost all those games.  I don’t think that’s coincidence.

The Ravens wins have come against teams without that type of quality size on the defensive front.  The Bengals used to have D.J. Reader, who routinely gave the Ravens fits, but Reader took his talents to Detroit in free agency over the offseason.  Vita Vea of the Bucs is the only player who jumps out as a possible exception; and Vea was on the injury report the week the Ravens played them (Questionable/hamstring).

This is an old lesson.  How do you beat a team with a great offense?  You beat the shit out of them physically, starting on the defensive line.  The 2001 Patriots did that to beat the Greatest Show on Turf Rams in the Super Bowl.  The same organization did a similar thing repeatedly in the AFC playoffs against Indy (though moreso in the secondary) to the point that the NFL eventually made a rules change.  The 2007 Giants did it to the Imperfect Patriots.  Way back in 1996, the Packers added Reggie friggin White over the offseason, to a line that already had Santana Dodson, and beat up their opponents on the way to the title.  Their head coach, Mike Holmgren, was apologetic about it in a press conference after they beat the Forty-Niners.  He used to be the Niners Offensive Coordinator; he said that he told his team the only way to disrupt the San Francisco offense – Steve Young!  Jerry Rice!  Terrell Owens!  Brent Jones!  J.J. Stokes! – was to beat them up.

You might say that physical play on the defensive front doesn’t cause receiver drops downfield.  I’m going to counter with “maybe.”  If the Quarterback has to hurry his throw, or move off his spot, that changes the pass timing.  If Defensive Backs trust that you’re not going to get a lot of time to throw, then they can press tighter than they would if they knew they might have to cover downfield. There are ripple effects all over the offense when the defensive front messes things up.  You can see that in this game.  Three of the drive-ending incomplete passes (two drops and the overthrow) came on 3rd-&-21 and 3rd-&-14 (twice).  Those weren’t “just drops,” those were tough situations created by negative plays earlier in the series.

The Ravens offense is doing great stuff this season.  But the “physicality” test is one they’ve faced a few times, and haven’t really passed yet.

Or:

Maybe everything I’ve written above is just typical fan-hysteria over-reaction to a division loss.  The Ravens did have a pretty good statistical day on offense.  The yards-per-play was good, as mentioned above.  Their 2.4 points-per-drive (before the final minute) would rank #6 on the season (tied with the Chiefs).  If they had taken the Field Goal at the end of the game, that’s 5 scoring drives out of 11, which is 45.5%: that would be good for #7 in the league.  The one Quarterback in football who is most able to compensate for O-line slippage is Lamar Jackson.  Well: him & Patrick Mahomes.  Lamar skating away from pressure and finding a receiver deep is one of the most dependable plays in football.

Maybe nothing about this game is predictive for the rest of the season.  The game had some of the elements of a “trap” game.  Not by the typical definition, where you’re looking past this opponent to a big matchup the following week, but in terms of “overlookable” surprises.  As Mike Tanier wrote about the game:

Sometimes it comes down to your backup quarterback being far better than your starter, your opponent getting stuffed near the goal line, a missed field goal, a dropped game-winning interception and a 2-of-10 third-down conversion rate allowed.  …  I took the Browns +7.5 all the way to the bank. Teams often play better in their backup’s first start. This particular backup, replacing that particular starter, was an absolute layup.

Maybe we just needed Admiral Ackbar to issue his warning:

Speaking of Punting

The Ravens punted four times Sunday; and Jordan Stout was great on them. (In fact, he was our Big Crab Cake:)

A Stout Performance

He had a short porch for one.  The Ravens punted from the Browns 44 midway thru the 3rd (by the way, the 4th-down-bot disagreed with that decision):

—> BAL (10) @ CLE (13) BAL has 4th & 5 at the CLE 44, Q3 08:19

Recommendation (STRONG): Go for it (+4.2 WP)
Actual play: J.Stout punts 31 yards to CLV 13, Center-N.Moore, downed by BLT-S.Kane. pic.twitter.com/SMrC25706H

— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 27, 2024

Anyway, they punted, in what I would call a “pin” situation.  There are “pins” and there are “booms.”  Pin opportunities are when you are punting near midfield and have a chance to pin the opponent behind their 20.  Booms are when you are deep in your own territory and need to launch it to flip the field.  On that pin opportunity, Stout placed it on the Browns 14-yard line.  The game announcer said the punt went way high; the coverage team had plenty of time to run under it.  A good punt.

Stout’s other punts were boom situations where he got to “kick away,” as the Ravens were on their own 14 or 15 each time.  On those punts, Stout went:

• 60 yards
• 55 yards
• 64 yards

That’s about a 60-yard average (59⅔).  Damn good.  The Browns got decent returns off of them, so maybe the punts were too “line drivey.”  But Stout still got a net of 47 yards per.  Pretty good work.

Where No Raven Offense has Gone Before

Your current Ravens have done something on offense that no previous Ravens team has ever done.

Before this year, the longest streak of games the team has ever had with a receiver over a hundred yards, has been three games.  They’ve done that six different times over the team’s history, starting in the inaugural season when Derrick Alexander, Michael Jackson and Floyd Turner combined to do that over games 8, 9 & 10.  Here is the complete list:

Right now the Ravens are sitting on an active streak of FOUR games with a hundred-yard receiver:

Never done before!

By the Ravens, that is.  I can’t stress enough how minor this is.  It’s probably not even a blip on the all-time list.  If we look at a team with a storied offensive history, like say the Niners, I’m sure we’ll see many longer streaks.  But it’s an indicator that this Ravens team is moving in a different world from where other Ravens squads have lived.

The team record for most hundred-yard receiving performances in a season is nine, which they’ve done twice: 1996 (Michael Jackson 4x, Derrick Alexander 3x, Floyd Turner 2x) and 2021 (Mark Andrews 5x, Marquise Brown 3x, Rashod Bateman).  They’re on a pace to break that record this year: Five already (Isaiah Likely posted a hundo in the season opener) and we’re just at the halfway point.

My Number One

On Tuesday Eric DeCosta traded for Panthers Wide Receiver Diontae Johnson.  Johnson led the Panthers in receiving yards, so a certain segment of Ravens fandom anointed him an upgrade from Bateman.  Not so fast.

On the table above, for the rows “PFF Raw Sep Grade” and “Catchpoint & YAC Grade” I don’t have the actual numbers.  I just eyeballed the chart @throwthedamball published.  (The chart is shown in the next section.  YTS of course is YdsPerTarg • Success%, my quick-&-dirty way to view those two stats together.)

I don’t usually show Catch Rate, because by itself it’s not useful.  Receivers who are used differently, for example downfield guys vs. slot players, will have vastly different catch rates, but it won’t tell us what they are contributing.  I made an exception here, because the relationship between AvgDepthOfTarget and Catch Rate is notable.  Bate’s AvgDepthOfTarget has been 50% further downfield than Johnson’s this year, but Bate’s Catch Rate is still 11 pts higher.

Many Ravens fans don’t want to accept it, but Bateman is having a very good season.  Bate doesn’t help himself in terms of fan perception.  As noted, his drops have been high-visibility, they’ve come in divisional losses; and he tries to shrug them off by acting cool.  That’s a necessary quality in a pro, who has to move on to the next play.  Hell: Cornerbacks couldn’t even take the field if they weren’t cocky guys with short memories.  But it doesn’t play to fans who are screaming at the TV and tearing their hair out. They want to see you pound the turf in frustration and throw your helmet, or they’re going to think you don’t care.  Fans will turn on you.

Anyway – Johnson probably won’t bump Bateman out of the starting lineup.  Still, I like the move.  I’ve expressed concern before in this column about the WR3 position.  The Ravens needed a more dependable contributor there; and Johnson comes super-cheap. In general it’s very, very hard to improve a top unit; and as noted this Ravens offense has been one of the best ever through the first half of the season by DVOA.  Any improvement to that side of the ball could only be incremental.  It would’ve been nice to add a couple All-Pro Offensive Linemen, but this move is still a plus.

By the way, I emphasized stats above because this is a stats column.  But there’s a significant chance Johnson’s performance is much better than his stats.  Bateman has been catching passes from the magic man 2-time MVP while Johnson has been working with Bryce Young (and Andy Dalton, who is very professional).  Last year Johnson had Kenny Pickett to deal with.  Johnson could be an undervalued stock.  He made the Pro Bowl in 2020, posting 1100 yards in Big Ben’s last season.  But Johnson is also 3½ years older than Bateman, is in his sixth season, and his career-best yards-per-target would be 3rd in Bateman’s 4-year career.  Fans hoping for someone to bump Bateman out of the starting lineup are probably misguided.

In terms of the Ravens trade-deadline action: this move feels like preparation.  A little bit of dotting the I’s on offense (cheaply) before a substantial move on D.  At least I hope so.  Mortgage the future for Budda Baker and Maxxxxx Crosby!  Who says no???  (Hmm, maybe there’s a reason I write offense columns.)

Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

(Data from PFR)

Four explosive receptions for Flowers!  That’s a hell of a game.

Brutal day for Bateman, his worst of the season.  One of those targets was batted at the line by Browns DT Shelby Harris, so it shouldn’t really “count.”  But as mentioned, two of them were flat-out drops.

Andrews and Likely caught everything thrown to them.  Agholor managed a QS despite the two incompletes highlighted in the long breakdown of the failed drives.

Season Stats & Leaderboard

Here are your full-season stats to date:

(Data from PFR)

Above I referenced the WR chart Judah Fortgang publishes weekly.  He takes PFF’s “PFF Raw Sep Grade” and “Catchpoint & YAC Grade” and plots them on a scatter plot.  Here is this week’s edition of that:

How fun is it to see both the Ravens starting WRs in the “good quadrant”?!?  If there’s any surprise here, it’s that Bate’s “Catchpoint & YAC Grade” is higher than Flowers’.  I suspect Flowers’ grade is depressed by all those early-season bubble screens where he got swarmed.

By the way, I don’t see Agholor on this chart.  I think he should be there; the minimum for inclusion is 100 routes and Agholor has 260 snaps on the season.  I seriously doubt 62% of those snaps were running plays. Maybe he’s there; that’s a densely cluttered graphic, and my vision has taken a hit since the pandemic started and squinting at screens became my main only pastime.  Let me know in the comments if you spot him.

Flowers is up to 12th in the league in receiving yards; Bateman is 20th.  That’s right, the Ravens have two WRs in the league’s top-20 in yards!  This is not your standard Ravens squad.  Flowers is on a pace for about 1050 yards (through 16 games); Bate for about 850.  Andrews & Likely & Hill are all on pace for around 500, give or take 50.  Hill is 6th among RBs in receiving yards.

Bateman is 5th in the league in yards-per-target.  Yes, even after this two-drop day cost him a full yard on the stat.  That’s a great number.  Andrews is 12th in the league in Success Rate; Likely is 23rd.

After breaking the seal last week on his rookie season, Tez Walker did not play Sunday.  He was active, but didn’t see the field. Above, we talked extensively about whose snaps Diontae Johnson might cut into.  But wherever Johnson fits among Bateman & Agholor, his acquisition probably ends the active-on-gameday part of Tez Walker’s season. Walker was a developmental pick to begin with; that development will be limited to practices and the meeting room.  See ya next year, rook!

Lamar still leads the league in Passer Rating, though now he’s in a virtual tie with Jared Goff.  No Passer Rating table this week: Joe Flacco has fallen off the qualifiers list due to lack of attempts.  Indy just named him the starter though, so he might return to the list.  Lamar is 2nd in Yards-per-attempt, 1st in NetYardsPerAttempt (which accounts for sacks), 2nd in Touchdowns, 5th in (lowest) INT%, 5th in yards.  Pretty quarterbacky, all in all.

As mentioned above, the Ravens have the league’s best offense by DVOA, and one of the best ever through 8 games.  They’re still #1 in yards-per-play, and also in Red Zone TD%, which probably is a bit of a surprise after this past game.  They’re #3 in 3rd-down conversions.

The Ravens have fallen to the #2 overall team in DVOA, behind the Lions, who are much more balanced (top-5 in all three phases).  Their DVOA’s playoff odds dipped a bit with the loss, but are still at 95.1%.  That’s a smidge behind the Chiefs, Bills and Texans, but obviously still excellent.  DVOA considers them the 3rd most likely to win the Super Bowl.

Next Up

Sunday: @Broncos vs @Ravens

The irresistible force meets the immovable object pic.twitter.com/wxnQk12iHR

— NFL on CBS (@NFLonCBS) October 29, 2024

DVOA has the Broncos not as the best defense (that’s the Vikings) but at #5 still plenty tough.  At least the game is in Baltimore.

________________________________________________________________________________________

There’s also another major contest happening next week.  We may not have the result of the election by the day I normally write this column (Wednesday).  We’ll all be spending Wednesday frantically refreshing our news feeds for updates.  If we do have a result, half of us will find it disastrous and think the destruction of the republic is imminent. There’s even a possibility of civil unrest: I know that at least one major utility is setting aside resources in case of disruption.

This column may take the week off for election stuff.  Or may appear in truncated form: just a stats update without my usual wordy blather.  (Hell: that might be an improvement!)

I would like to suggest that next week we try to bear in mind that our fellow citizens whose preferred side loses the election, will have some deep concerns about the future of the country.  Those concerns might be well-founded or they might be nonsense stoked by politicians’ lies; but the concern will be there.  We should take that concern, and those citizens, seriously.  It’s a step toward reknitting the country after a(nother) contentious election cycle.

Best wishes to all for a safe and civic-minded week.

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