Daniel Faalele Rewrites the Laws of Physics

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 6 Games

Great win over Washington.

Has anyone noticed a weird tone to the media conversation about this game?  Heading up to the game, much of the conversation was about how good Washington and Jayden Daniels have been, and how they’ll probably beat the Ravens.  Several analysts picked Washington.  After the game, the conversation was that losing by a respectable score “validates” how promising Washington is.

See the difference?  Before the game, Washington is a formidable opponent and the Ravens are creaky and vulnerable.  After the game, Washington is a scrappy young upstart who performed nobly just keeping the score close against the Baltimore juggernaut.  “Aw, you did great, slugger!”  Somehow the conversation was rigged so that any result short of the Ravens blowing them out validated the media take on Washington.

Commanders losing by 7 in Baltimore is actually a pretty good result as far as suggesting that they are “for real.”

— Aaron Schatz (@ASchatzNFL) October 13, 2024

Weird.  The thing that gets me is, this game wasn’t really that close.  I saw a win probability graph on Xitter after the game, and it never wobbled.  The graph went toward the Ravens early, and never crossed over to pro-Washington at any point.  It dipped on the Commanders Q2 touchdown, but then steadily tilted more & more toward the Ravens until the final whistle.

The model never doubted the Ravens #WASvsBAL pic.twitter.com/UW9HyvejFh

— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) October 13, 2024

Much is made of the final total being a one-score margin.  But the Ravens had a 10-pt lead to start the 4th quarter.  Washington closed it to seven, then the Ravens stretched it back out to 10 on a methodical, clock-killing 6-minute drive.  Washington closed it back to seven a little before the two-minute warning.  Jordan Stout of the Ravens punted just one time all game, at the end of the 1st quarter.  Following that, for the rest of the game, on their drives the Ravens went:

• Touchdown
• Touchdown
• Field Goal
• Touchdown
• Kneel to end game

What I’m saying is, this game was not as close as the final score. The Ravens took a touchdown lead into the half, and remained in control the whole rest of the game. That makes all the “Gee, Washington did so great!” chatter a little annoying.

It’s possible I’m being over-sensitive about this. A basic reality of NFL media is, they hype up the games.  Every matchup is an epic clash of titans where anything can happen.  That’s always how the conversation goes.  I probably shouldn’t make a federal case out of this one example of that.

For Real?

My whining aside, I am enormously impressed with the job Washington has done to put a solid team on the field this season.  Their new GM is Adam Peters, who comes to them from San Francisco.  He’d been with the Niners through the whole Kyle Shanahan era, first as VP of Player Personnel then as Asst GM.  Before that he was with Denver, finishing as Asst Director of College Scouting at the end of those Peyton Manning years, which of course included two Super Bowl appearances and a Lombardi Trophy.  Two very, very solid regimes.

Washington obviously got lucky with Jayden Daniels.  He had talent, but you couldn’t have known he would display this kind of poise & accuracy.  Picking a QB at the top of the draft is a boom-or-bust situation.  It’s the ultimate high-leverage play for an NFL organization.  Either it works and you’re contending for the next decade, or it doesn’t and you’re mired in losing for years. What a lot of teams don’t seem to realize is that actually picking the QB is only part of the battle.  You also have to set up a good situation for him to succeed.  A “mid” QB prospect can have great success in a good situation:

PFF’s highest-graded quarterback in the NFL after week 6:

Brock Purdy – 88.2 pic.twitter.com/gfQKIj4nbM

— Coach Yac (@Coach_Yac) October 15, 2024

And an outstanding prospect can have poor results in a tough situation:

Hope for struggling rookie QBs: The man who holds the record for most Ints thrown as a rookie — Peyton Manning (28). pic.twitter.com/2iBWHYEPc5

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 18, 2014

Bad organizations pick their savior quarterback and then sit back and wait for him to fix everything.  Good organizations draft a promising quarterback and then get to work trying to stack the deck in his favor.  Adam Peters did a ton of work to maximize the positives in the situation for Daniels.  Here’s the Washington offensive starters from Sunday’s game (I’m listing 12 players because their WR3 and WR4 played about equal snaps Sunday):

Sure, it helps enormously to already have a “number one receiver.” We Ravens fans have been looking for that for 25 years.  But the whole rest of this unit is new construction.  On the OL:

• They “found” one starting-caliber Guard by kicking their non-star OT inside.
• They spent significant capital to add three new starters: market-value money in free agency and a day-2 draft pick.

None of these guys will be named All-Pro this season: it’s not a “dominant” unit.  But it’s solid & functional, with a focus on pass-blocking.

At the eligible positions, they added a bunch of smart players who catch every damn thing.  And they didn’t use up any of their future cap space!  One draft pick; three players on 1-yr contracts; one player on a 2-yr contract.  The whole group of new pass-catchers averages less than $2M a year.

They were able to get these guys cheap because none of them are “focal point” players.  They’re all “complementary” players.  But they are very skilled complementary players.  Nothing makes a young QB look smarter than receivers who run where they’re supposed to and catch the ball – except maybe good pass-protection giving him time and not exposing him to too much pressure.

It’s extremely smart & capable work by their front office.

So – are the Redskins Washington for real?  Well: no, and yes.

They are not “for real” in terms of being able to compete for the NFC’s spot in the Super Bowl this season.  Absolutely not.  Teams like the Packers & Vikings & Niners & Detroit are a distinct level above where Washington Team Football is right now.  They’re a feel-good story, but they’re not a Super Bowl contender.

But they certainly are “for real” in terms of being an up-&-coming team.  They’ll finish with a winning record this year; hell, they might win that division!  For next year they have $121M in cap space and nine draft picks (including four in the top 100). They’ve already shown smarts & savvy in team construction.  This is an organization on the rise.  Washington fans should be very optimistic.

I kinda hate it, personally.  I enjoy it when that team sucks.  I’m not at all eager to share area bragging rights with a good NFL team in Washington.  But that’s just me.  Trying to transcend my parochial outlook, it is a good thing when an NFL organization displays intelligence in their operations.

Anatomy of a Wide Receiver Screen

Last season, and early this season, Todd Monken invested a number of snaps in bubble screens to Zay Flowers.  And Flowers got swarmed pretty much every time: these plays usually went for a loss.

On Sunday, Lamar’s 1st pass of the game was a little screen to Flowers, that he broke open for 44 yards.  What was different about this play?  Let’s look at some tape:

Zay Flowers with an early 46-yard gain!

: #WASvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/taeWQ7ZzwF

— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024

The Ravens are in 12 personnel: Derrick Henry in the backfield, Rashod Bateman split left all alone; Flowers and the two Tight Ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in trips right.  Flowers goes in motion across the formation:

Already this represents a change from the previous WR screens with Flowers.  In the prior plays, Flowers had been static, split wide to where he was going to take the pass.  Here, the motion suggests to the defense that Flowers is getting a running start to go downfield. Notice that no defender is going with him.  Washington is in zone.

On the snap, Lamar Jackson executes a perfunctory play-fake with Henry, who crosses his face.  Meanwhile Flowers pretends to curve his path downfield, then takes a jab step and opens back up to Lamar to take the pass:

On the catch, look at the jailbreaking Offensive Linemen (yellow circle):

Hard to see is Left Guard Patrick Mekari (orange arrow).  He has pulled right to cut off backside pursuit (and maybe help give Lamar a second of time to get the pass away).  The other four linemen are stampeding like a herd of elephants to get in front of Flowers.

In this next pic, we can see the O-linemen sorting themselves.  Center Tyler Linderbaum (yellow arrow) has hustled to get in front of Washington’s right Defensive End, and he turns around and to block him face up.  Right Tackle Roger Rosengarten (orange arrow) is giving a shoulder check to Washington’s left Defensive Tackle.  In the foreground, Bateman is engaging two defensive backs to block them.  Left Tackle Ronnie Stanley is eyeing that cluster, planning to help (i.e. blow it up like a cue ball on the break). Big Daniel Faalale is heading downfield.

In this next pic, we see that Stanley has engaged with Bateman’s group.  Flowers has a nice alley, bounded on the inside by Linderbaum & Rosengarten (who has bounced off his shoulder-check) and on the outside by the combo block of Bateman & Stanley.

Through the scrum!  ZOOOOOM!  Flowers is in the open field.  And now, words cannot prepare for what big Daniel Faalale (yellow circle) is about to do.

Fifteen yards downfield, and Flowers has an entourage.  Likely is out in front, engaging with the lead defender.  Andrews is parallel inside, next to the shield in this picture.  And Faalale is BREAKING THE LAWS OF TIME AND SPACE.  Flowers is 5-foot-9, 175 pounds, and he ran a 4.4 at the Combine.  Faalale goes 6-8 380.  How the hell is he down here?

Next pic: twenty-five yards downfield, Likely is doing a helluva job maintaining his block, and Faalale is re-writing the laws of physics. Technically he’s not actually “blocking” anybody.  But his orbital volume has forced defenders to go around him and take weird angles to Flowers.  Washington defender #25 (yellow arrow) is at perigee and has clearly been grappling with decisions about how to engage for several yards now.

Next pic: Flowers is 35 yards down the field, and only now is Faalale (orange arrow) finally out of the play.  Barely. The space-warp has closed, and Washington defenders can now close safely on Flowers. They’re about to push him out of bounds.

So, what was different?  Beyond Faalale moving like no 380-lb man should?

• Motion to put Flowers in space.
• Blocking from the entire unit.

This wasn’t a typical tunnel or bubble screen with only the wideouts blocking.  This played more like a Running Back screen, with Lamar drawing the defenders while the O-line hustles downfield. Eventually the whole unit got in on the blocking. This looked like the kind of screen the Chiefs call; an Andy Reid special.  And notice how CRISP everyone was!  All eleven have a role in this play, and they get after it with quickness & authority.  Beautiful execution.

This play opened the floodgates.  Even though the Ravens turned the ball over two plays later, Flowers was “activated” and would go on to a career day.

Toss This Play

Former Ravens Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman had a deep, deep bag of tricks for the running game.  Power, Counter, Wham plays and trap plays, zone, stuff I don’t even know the name for: his running-game playbook had every damn thing in it.  But, oddly, there was one type of play that Roman never called with the Ravens.  This play was all over the Georgia tape when Monken was there, and it was completely absent from the Ravens tape:

The simple toss play.

Here’s a video breakdown of Monken’s Georgia teams running Crack Toss, from the YouTube channel of the great Edgar Allen:

Why didn’t Roman call toss plays?  He was obsessed with the moment of hesitation the linebackers give you when they’re not sure if the Quarterback is handing-off the ball or keeping it.  On every carry by the Running Back, Roman’s Ravens had the RB “cross” the QB, or mesh with him.  Roman wanted the linebackers to have to look at that and think.  The toss play doesn’t have that.  On the toss, the RB never gets any closer than about four yards from the QB.  There’s never any question about who has or is keeping the ball.  Roman didn’t want to surrender that, on any running play.

Monken is willing to mix that up; he’s way more willing to move away from reliance on Lamar runs.  In exchange for losing the “mesh,” what the toss gives you is the ability to get the RB outside the scrum at the Line of Scrimmage.  It also lets you take advantage of mobile offensive linemen.  Check out Roger Rosengarten on this toss from last week’s game vs the Bengals – these stills are taken from Jonas Shaffer’s compilation of toss plays, linked at the end of this section.

Just before snap, Flowers is motioning away from the play.  Rosengarten is inline at Right Tackle (tagged with the yellow line).

At the snap, Rosengarten pulls right, following Patrick Ricard, with Linderbaum in convoy.  You can see Henry receiving the toss, as the blockers run to get in front of him.

In this next pic, Rosengarten has turned the corner and is heading downfield.  Henry is in full stride, and he has a wall of blockers sealing him off from the defense inside.

Five yards downfield, Rosengarten comes face-to-face with Bengals ILB #55 and gets ready to introduce himself.  Henry is crossing the 30, partially obscured by big Faalale and whichever defender he’s eclipsing.

BOOM!  In this next pic, Rosengarten has made contact with the linebacker. Henry, tagged with the green line, is pressing the gap behind his two blockers.

In this next still, Rosengarten is finishing his block. Henry is obscured by Rosengarten and his man: Henry’s down, off a shoestring tackle by #54.  It’s an 8-yard gain. Could’ve been even bigger.

Plays like this are one reason you draft a mobile guy like Rosengarten to play Right Tackle, rather than a stronger but slower guy.  On the other side of the formation, Stanley is playing at or near his old Pro Bowl level.  The Toss play left is equally as devastating, or even more – the Ravens used Left Crack Toss to close out each of the last two wins:

Toss left to Derrick Henry has been the Ravens’ finishing move the past two weeks. pic.twitter.com/6iaa0DwIPj

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 14, 2024

That’s a lot of screen shots in this week’s column devoted to two plays.  But the WR screen and the Toss illustrate something about the success of this year’s offense.  It’s not just Lamar who’s playing out of his mind.  It’s not just King Henry doing his normal thing.  These plays require an Offensive Line that gets out and runs.  It’s not just Wide Receivers: part of what makes an offense that can attack in space is Offensive Linemen that can get out into space.  You gotta be able to move. The OL has been sharp and on-point on these plays.  They’re executing at a very high level.

Here’s the YouTube compilation of Ravens toss plays to Derrick Henry, from the Baltimore Banner’s Jonas Shaffer.  The play we broke down above starts at about the 2:30 mark.

Lamar Usage Note

Just this:

Y’all don’t understand how amazing it feels to watch Lamar Jackson NOT have to be our leading rusher. Derrick Henry was brought in to do a job, and he’s been very effective at it. INVEST IN PROVEN TALENT!!!

— GOWIE (@DaKidGowie) October 13, 2024

Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

data from PFR

Career day for Flowers: 9 catches for 132.  He did ALL of his damage in just the first half!  Dude had one hundred-yard game in his first 20, and now has had two back-to-back.  Those performances have bumped him back up onto a pace for a thousand yards, but more on that next section.

You could hardly do better than the Ravens top-3 did on Sunday: 94% completions, 15.8 yards-per-target, passer rating of 138 when targeted.

Season Stats & Leaderboard

Here are your full-season stats to date:

data from PFR

The meat of the Ravens receiving attack is the five players with double-digit catches who I bolded above: Andrews, Bateman, Flowers, Likely, Hill.  On passes to this “Core 5,” Lamar is:

99 of 138 (72%) for 1,238 yards (9 yards-per) with 8 TD and 2 INT, for a rating of 112.5

That would lead the league.  We can’t do an accurate Success Rate and YTS without sacks.  But if we assume that ALL of Lamar’s sacks came on plays intended for these five (which is not a ridiculous assumption), then Lamar would have 8.3 Net Yards per Attempt on these plays, and 55% Success Rate, both of which would lead the league.  That would give a YTS of 4.56.

That’s cherry picking, of course.  Any offense would seem more efficient if you included only the throws to their best receivers.  Joe Burrow’s efficiency stats to just Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins are probably pretty good.   Pat Mahomes’ stats to just Travis Kelce & Rashee Rice are no doubt pretty good. Still, it’s fun cherry picking.  And this isn’t just one or two players; it’s all five of their primary receivers.  It’s the exact group they put on the field on third downs.  The Ravens “engine” of their five primary receivers is running very smooth.

I still worry about the WR3 spot.  Nelson Agholor has not been productive this season. At some point you’re going to need 3- and 4-WR sets to put enough speed on the field to threaten defenses and mount a comeback.  Free Tez Walker!

Something I didn’t notice about Justice Hill, until the broadcasting team pointed it out on Sunday: heading into the game Hill was #3 in receiving yards among Running Backs.  He’s fallen to 5th after this game; still very good.

After two great games, Flowers has suddenly jumped up to 11th in the league in receiving yards.  He’s back on pace for a thousand yards (through 16).  Bateman is on-pace for 700; Likely & Andrews for 550 and 500.  It’s a receiving-by-committee offense.

Bateman is 12th in the league in yards-per-target; Andrews is 16th.  Likely is 19th in the league in Success Rate; Andrews is 29th.

Lamar is 7th in the league in passing yards.  He’s 3rd in yards-per-attempt, 3rd in passer rating, 3rd in Success Rate, and 3rd in EPA per pass play.  He’s 6th in QBR.  He’s 1st in Net-yards-per-attempt, which is yards-per adjusted for sacks.  That’s actually a very important & telling stat: sack avoidance + high yards-per-attempt.   He’s 3rd in SuccessRate.  Being 1st and 3rd in NY/A and SuccessRate should make for a high YTS, right?  Let’s check the leaderboard:

YES!  Sweet, sweet #1.  By the way, check out Baker Mayfield’s Success Rate, bolded.  He’s leading the league.  We’ll reference that at the end.

Lamar is on pace for 4,075 yards passing (through 16 games) with 26 TDs and 5 INTs.  He’s also on pace for 1,075 yards rushing.  That’s 5,150 total yards. If he hit that, it would rank among the top 15 seasons all-time in QB yardage (pass + rush).  I usually project through just 16 games for a variety of reasons, including being stubbornly stuck in the past, and disliking prime numbers – but also because Lamar has twice sat out game 17 with the Ravens having clinched, and that’s a scenario I like.  But suppose Lamar did have to play in all 17 games?  Then his yardage total would project to 5,475 yards.  That would be the #3 season all- time in total yards for a Quarterback, just behind Patrick Mahomes in 2022 and Drew Brees in 2011.  Historic.

Your Ravens are still the #1 offense in total yards per play.  Here are the eight teams with 6+ yards-per-play:

data from PFR

They’re also #1 in DVOA (I think yards-per-play is one of the components of DVOA).  They have a pretty substantial lead in (Offensive) DVOA over #2 Washington:

data from FTN

The Ravens are #1 in Red Zone Touchdown percentage!  What a great stat to be #1 in.  They’re also #1 in 3rd-down conversions; 3rd in points-per-drive; and 5th in Scoring Percentage.

I don’t usually want this column to be just table after table of data.  But I’m savoring it, man!  #1 in Yards-per-play!  #1 in Red Zone!  #1 in 3rd-down!  #1 in DVOA!  #1 in YTS!  That’s so friggin cool.  We don’t usually get to experience that, so this stat nerd is celebrating.  Be thankful I don’t just add another table of everything the Ravens are #1 in.

Next Up

The Ravens tour hurricane ground zero in Tampa!  And the Buccs seem to be good.  They just dropped 50 on the Saints.  They hung 37 on Washington in the season opener; beat the Lions in Detroit in week 2; and scored 33 on the Eagles in another win.  They’re not consistent – they lost to Denver and Atlanta – but they are dangerous.

Baker Mayfield leads the league in passing Success Rate (54%).  This might be another shootout…

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