New Study: Ice Core Data Shows Modern Warming Is Statistically Unremarkable

Ice core sample [image credit: Discovering Antarctica]

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This article cites a post at NoTricksZone (here), which in turn cites the work of Professor Les Hatton: (Is a 1.1°C Rise in a Century Unusual? A Study of Interglacials in the Epica-Vostok Dataset). The study concludes: ‘The current interglacial is nothing special. It is currently still more than 3°C cooler than the peak of the last one about 130,000 years ago (which was by assumption entirely free of anthropogenic effect) and the degree of variability in this data is much the same now as then. Given then that a rise of 1.1°C is quite commonplace in this current interglacial and that none of the earlier occurrences could have been affected by anthropogenic activity, this raises the question of why we are trying to attribute the current rise to anthropogenic effects as if it was unusual.’ — ‘We’ meaning the IPCC and its supporters of climate alarm, who propose that a strong greenhouse effect in the atmosphere suddenly took off in the 19th century when the industrial age got going, overtaking everything else in importance to the state of the global climate.
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There is nothing unprecedented or even significant about modern warming magnitudes or rates, says Climate Dispatch.

A new statistical probability analysis (Hatton, 2026) using Vostok temperature data indicates the reported 1.1°C global warming over the last century (since the 1920s) is “not even unusual” within the context of the last 20,000 years, as “16% of the centuries since the end of the last Ice Age show a rise at least as big [1.1°C] as the current century.”

As current warming rates are “quite commonplace,” this calls into question the push to attribute temperature changes to human activity.

Antarctic ice cores are routinely used to represent not only global-scale CO2 records, but also global temperature records over the last 800,000 years.

Interestingly, if we compare modern Antarctica to paleo Antarctica, we learn “no continent-scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.”

Continued here.
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Image: Ice core sample [credit: Discovering Antarctica]