Shap WMO03225 – An Elevated Class 1 site showing more of the Cumbrian conundrum.

54.50203 -2.68504 Met Office CIMO Assessed Class 1 (Elevation 263 metres) Temperature records from 1/2/1992

Shap weather station lies 1.5 miles west of the M6/A6 corridor midway between Kendal and Penrith. Whilst not noted for extreme winds this site has been euphemistically described as “reliably breezy” and with such an open site is unlikely to encounter any stagnant air over recording of temperature issues. In his original 2012 review Tim channon did find grounds to mark this down to Class 2 so I shall address those first.

Tim’s detailed 100 metre and 30 metre circled areas led him to calculate “6.8% hardstanding within annulus 30m – 10m, limit 5%.” I certainly do not dispute his calculations and accept he is technically correct. Looking at the general wider angle view below though, I do feel that this site should be acceptable in that aspect if not 100% perfection.

Tim also raised the issue of enclosure paving and on this I have to concur. The streetview image does show a large covered area rather in excess of what would seem to be operationally required for climate reporting purposes.

This paving stands out quite markedly in some aerial imagery and it really does come across as highly reflective and potentially compromising for fine detail recording. Shap is principally a forecasting station so perhaps the Met Office is unconcerned about this situation but it does seem excessive.

A further point Tim raised was the stone wall running along the north west boundary in an area prone to snow drifting. I doubt in this area that this wall even when added to the enclosure fencing will be a significant wind break at screen height but could very well be a winter snow drifting issue.

There are very many “Quality Control” issues noted in the archives relating to the severity of the conditions here so the Met Office is obviously aware of all these issues, though whether it accounts for them in its climate reporting is unlikely.

All aspects taken into account probably do make this really a Class 2 climate reporting site but should still mean its data is accurate enough to reflect the wider Cumbrian uplands.

An important point to note is that altitude is expressly not in any way adjusted in the archived raw data even for very high elevation stations such as Cairngorm. To clarify this relative to other represented data:

The above adjustment does not apply to climate recording…..unless……..

As demonstrated above there are different standards applied to “Long Term Averages” as opposed to “Gridded Datasets“. These endless adjustments, modifications and varying tamperings do rather come across as a “creative license” for computer modelling and massaging historic data.

What does Shap’s Met Office basic data actually tell us as represented in their homogenised Climate averages? As mentioned in my report on St Bees Head, there are 4 Met Office assessed Class 1 sites in Cumbria together with Walney Island and Warcop Range.

As I reported for St Bees Head “the Met Office is claiming 60 year mean increments of

……………………………………………………………..0.62°C for maximum and 0.61°C for minimums. “

For Shap, the comparative figures are……… 0.74°C maximums and 0.61°C minimums

For Warcop …………………………………………….0.68°C maximums and 0.52°C minimums

For Walney Island…………………………………….0.64°C maximums and 0.69°C minimums

All these 4 currently existing Class 1 sites are showing broadly the same figures for Cumbria which as I also demonstrated was markedly lower than Heathrow where “The mean maximum increment is now 1.21°C and the mean minimum is 1.1°C.”

How Class 1 operational Cumbrian sites compare with other “creative license” computer modelled other regions is an interesting exercise. Lowestoft had its ongoing fictional “Historic Data” covertly deleted when questioned over its veracity,however, its “climate averages” and those associated stations still remain.

For confirmation NONE of the above stations are currently operational – some are incredibly long gone such as Scole. Unsurprisingly, all the above non existent sites also agree with each other. The stand out figures are from Lowestoft.

The Lowestoft maximums increase is shown as 1.09°C and minimums as 1.08°C

What is the public supposed to believe?

Option 1: Four operational Class 1 sites within a similar locality whose data, though homogenised, is largely only being mixed together with other good quality sites. These show a warming trend in the region of 0.65°C

Option 2: 5 long closed sites of unknown quality with one formerly quoted as “Historic” mysteriously having its data deleted when queried. These show a warming trend of 1.1°C

Option 3: Warming trends are localised to southern urban areas only.

i suggest it is obvious which one would be more credible to the general public but, of course, the Met Office is not letting on to all the above……..yet.

Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2025/11/10/shap-wmo03225-an-elevated-class-1-site-showing-more-of-the-cumbrian-conundrum/