Why has the Atlantic hurricane season gone ‘remarkably’ quiet? – asks BBC News (or no news)

We’ve been told hurricanes should become more frequent and/or more intense in a warming world, but they’re struggling to even make it to the launchpad this season. The pundits basing their forecasts on such notions are left almost empty-handed, so far at least, much to the BBC’s disappointment. Their only chance to recover some cred is for a late-season burst of storm activity to end the current ‘lull’ as they call it, but no obvious sign of that to date.
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Statistically 10 September marks the peak in the Atlantic hurricane season and in an ‘average’ season we would have expected to have had eight named storms, three of which would have become hurricanes and one a major hurricane, says BBC News.

So far in 2025, there have been six named storms, one of which became major hurricane Erin in mid-August.

With no activity expected in the next seven days, this will have been only the second year since 1950 where there will be no named storm from the end of August to mid-September.

This quieter period may come as a surprise considering the pre-season forecasts all suggested an ‘above average’ season.

Dr Philip Klotzbach, senior meteorologist at Colorado State University (CSU), said: “This pronounced quiet period is quite remarkable at this time of year given that it coincides with the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.”
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We’ve had lulls in hurricane activity before. Indeed, there are similarities to only last year.

In June and July 2024, Hurricane Beryl devastated parts of the Caribbean and broke records as the earliest storm ever to reach Category 5 – an intensity usually seen during peak season.

It then became unusually quiet with no activity between 21 August and 9 September, the most prolonged lull in hurricane numbers for around 50 years. [Talkshop comment – unusual, but here we are again?]

Activity dramatically increased in late September with multiple major hurricanes until the end of the season in November.
. . .
Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain above average for the time of year, and in excess of 27C – a key temperature for the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes in the main development areas.

So the ingredients to produce and help sustain tropical storms and hurricanes will slowly come back together.

And forecasters are still expecting the 2025 season to be ‘above average’ with 16 named storms, eight of which will be hurricanes with three of those major, according to CSU.

Full article here.