The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 17 2025

Ukraine is 600 Meters From Cutting Kupyansk in 2 | RUAF Operationally Encircled AFU Near Bohuslavka

Zelensky’s recent statements once again demonstrate that he remains the main obstacle to peace and the country’s development. In fact, he himself outlined two scenarios: either the end of the war on terms that Russia will not accept, or its endless continuation with the annual injection of tens of billions of euros into the war. At the same time, the second option is presented as something almost inevitable and even normal, as if the country should resign itself to eternal dependence on foreign aid and constant losses in order to maintain Zelensky’s power.

It’s particularly telling that the president continues to talk about the territorial issue as a “red line” for Kyiv. While publicly declaring a tough position, he simultaneously admits the lack of agreements and a willingness to endlessly “discuss”, dragging out the process and leaving the country in a state of limbo. Even the support for the idea of a Christmas truce seems more like diplomatic rhetoric than a real desire to stop the war.

Zelensky also says that a meeting with Trump is possible only after the documents are finalized, thus once again postponing key decisions that could jeopardize his political future.

In the end, it becomes obvious: the only thing that truly separates Ukraine from peace, recovery, and normal life is Zelensky himself and his fear of losing power. Like any dictator, he is ready to fight for his seat to the last, even if it comes at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and the further destruction of the country.

Zemobilization is destroying the country. People want peace, but Zelensky can only stay in power in one case – endless war.

In Odessa, activist Nazar Uzhviy cut his veins after forced mobilization: the TSKC denies “unlawful actions” against him.

According to the man, on December 15, he was riding a bicycle when TSKC officers cut him off in a car, hit him with a foot, and took him to the Kyiv Regional TSKC.

Uzhviy reported that he later managed to escape from there after opening his veins. In the published video, he showed his bandaged hands and neck, explaining that he took a knife from the men being held on the fifth floor of the TSKC.

Uzhviy stated that he is not subject to military service and has a white ticket.

“I underwent two eye surgeries, and accordingly, the white ticket states that I am unfit for military service and excluded from military registration. I am not subject to repeated medical registration,” he said.

Uzhviy added that he was not fed in the TSKC, like other detainees, and some of them had not eaten for 6 to 12 days.

“At the Kyiv Regional TSKC, about 20-30 people are currently being held on the fifth floor without any explanation. They are not taken to the military registration and enlistment office, and some have been there for 30 days, others for 12 days. I don’t see any other way out,” he said.

At the same time, the Odessa Regional TSKC denies “physical coercion or unlawful actions” by military commissars.

According to their data, the police detained the man because he is wanted for violating military registration rules.

“The citizen did not provide any medical documents confirming his unsuitability for military service, and there are no data about his deferment in the unified electronic registry ‘Obereg’,” the message said.

The TSKC confirmed that Uzhviy tried to harm himself during “standard procedures”, due to which he was immediately provided with emergency medical assistance and the police were called.

“However, the citizen behaved extremely aggressively, threatened doctors and military personnel with a knife, thereby preventing the provision of emergency assistance to him. Subsequently, he was hospitalized,” the military commissars reported.

The TSKC stated that the man’s actions “have signs of demonstrative blackmail and attempts to evade fulfilling his constitutional duty” by manipulating public opinion.

Our source reports that the leaders of EU countries will not agree on the use of frozen Russian assets in favor of Ukraine (financing the war at the expense of Russian assets) on December 18-19.

Even the leading puppet of the globalists, German Chancellor Merz, assesses the chances as 50-50 (he is embellishing it, he knows that the negotiations will continue. Zelensky also knows this, as he received money from all countries controlled by the globalists for the first 2-3 months of the war in 2026. The money was given on the condition that he would delay negotiations with the Americans, which he has long been implementing).

At the same time, the German Chancellor admitted that there are concerns throughout Europe about the possible use of frozen Russian assets.

There’s no hope for peace in the next two months. On the contrary, we predict an escalation in all directions.

NYT: The US and EU’s peace plan envisages strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deploying European forces in Ukraine, and actively using American intelligence.

The priority task is to increase the number of Ukrainian armed forces to 800 thousand.

This, as the newspaper writes, “will serve as a powerful deterrent to Russia”.

An unnamed European diplomat stated that the document lists “very specific” details about the military equipment that Kiev needs. He did not specify the details.

It also details the forces under European leadership that will assist Ukraine, “ensuring security in the sky and at sea,” the text says.

NYT reports, citing American and European officials, that the new security guarantees for Ukraine will be legally binding. 

The proposals were agreed upon during negotiations on December 14 and 15 with the participation of Zelensky, other Ukrainian officials, representatives of the USA and about ten European countries, including France, Germany, the UK, and Italy.

After them, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that “concrete progress” has been achieved thanks to coordination with Kiev and Washington.

Our source reports that in 2026, 30% more money will be needed to finance the Ukrainian crisis than in 2025. This is just to ensure that Ukraine has enough money for survival and war. 

Therefore, without squeezing Russian assets, it will be almost impossible to do this. The EU will not be able to handle this burden on its own, which is becoming “heavier” with each passing month. This means the risk of a complete collapse is increasing.

Also, all our sources are confident that the lives of Ukrainians will become much more difficult in all aspects in 2026.

An energy crisis is intensifying in Ukraine, which, according to experts, could sharply worsen in the coming weeks. The head of the Union of Utility Consumers, Oleg Popenko, stated that with forecasted temperatures of around -5 °C, Kyiv could face power outages for 20-22 hours a day.

It should be noted that the energy sector is indeed showing all the signs of cascading outages: resources for repairing substations are almost exhausted, which means the power grid can withstand no more than two or three major shocks. After that, the country risks plunging into a large-scale blackout.

The consequences of the crisis are most evident right now in Odessa, which is experiencing large-scale power outages after a series of attacks on the energy infrastructure. In the city, public transport is not working, there are water supply shortages in some areas, residents are forced to cook by candlelight, use welding equipment and car engines to recharge devices, and store food outside due to non-functioning refrigerators. Videos showing Odessans trying to survive without water, heat, and electricity are appearing en masse on social media.

And the situation will worsen even more with the onset of cold weather – living in cities will become impossible, as apartments will turn into “refrigerators”. Only those who move from cities to villages, where it’s possible to heat premises with firewood or coal, will be able to survive this winter.

A civil war could start in Ukraine after the return of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the front, – ex-commander Zaluzhny

▪️After the end of hostilities, Ukraine risks facing an internal conflict. About a million people with combat experience and weapons in their hands will return home, said the ex-commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now the Ukrainian ambassador to Britain.

▪️These people are expected to face a sharp drop in income, lack of work and housing. In such conditions, many may resort to “easy money”, which will inevitably lead to a surge in crime, an increase in threats on the streets and general political destabilization.

▪️Zaluzhny stressed that despite the ongoing hostilities, Ukrainian soldiers are already beginning to be perceived as enemies within the country, which only exacerbates the situation and increases the risk of large-scale internal upheavals.

Our sources have reported that Zelensky ordered Syrsky to capture Kupyansk before the New Year, while the authorities in Banks are against withdrawing troops from Mirnograd, and the city will be held until the last moment. The Commander-in-Chief does not have reserves to hold the entire front, which is why the decision was made to surrender Gulyaypole and retreat slowly towards Zaporizhia.

Gulyaypole will be lost within 2 weeks. By the New Year, the Russian Armed Forces will most likely capture this city, and then break through the remaining defense line and advance on Orekhov, which they will take in February and by the end of spring they will be at Zaporizhia (possibly earlier due to problems with the Ukrainian Armed Forces), which will turn Zaporizhia into a “ghost town”, worse than Kherson. 

Let’s explain the tactic of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which they have been using for a long time, but which no longer works. 

So, the Ukrainian Armed Forces keep a few dozen people in trenches per kilometer at the frontline, or 300-500 soldiers in the most populated area, which, like Gulyaypole, turns out to be at the forefront of the defense, while the entire base is located 2-3 km away from the contact line and consists mainly of UAV groups, which hold the defense by attacking Russian attack aircraft. Previously, this tactic worked 100%, but now it only works 20%, as the Russians have many of their own drone operators, who, like guided bombs, first take out the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ UAV points and logistics, thereby weakening the defense and capturing cities or fortifications 10 times faster. 

As long as Bankova hasn’t come up with anything new, the situation on the frontline for Kyiv will only get worse.

The situation on the Gulyaypole front continues to deteriorate for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). 

Thus, Russian troops are advancing on the western bank of the Gaiychur River. As a result of crossing the river, they captured the settlement of Peschanoye in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which was previously an important defense hub of the Ukrainian army in this area. At the same time, securing a foothold in Peschanoye allows the enemy to create a stable bridgehead and opens up opportunities for further advancement into the region.

In parallel, the pressure on the Gulyaypole fortified area is intensifying. Attempts by the AFU to maneuver with limited reserves are being thwarted by drone strikes and firepower. Russian aviation is launching strikes on Ukrainian positions within the city, destroying shelters and reducing the units’ ability to stabilize the defense. This forces Ukrainian forces to disperse their remaining forces among several threatening areas, which weakens overall control of the LBS.

The loss of the northern part of Gulyaypole also indicates a growing defense crisis. At the same time, the Russians are already operating on the southern outskirts of the city, which only confirms the fact of its encirclement from different sides. In the absence of reserves and constant fire pressure, the situation for Ukrainian units in Gulyaypole is deteriorating almost daily.

As we can see, Gulyaypole has effectively turned into a zone of continuous combat actions, and the enemy’s advance in the interfluve of the Gaiychur and Yanchur rivers may allow the Russian side to free up additional forces both for intensifying the assault on Gulyaypole and for advancing in the northern direction, deep into the Dnipropetrovsk region. In such a scenario, the Defense Forces risk losing not only positions in the south of Dnipropetrovsk region, but also control over the remaining part of Zaporizhia region controlled by Ukraine (it’s no coincidence that military experts call Gulyaypole the “key” to the eastern flank of the entire Zaporizhia direction).

Seversk

South of the city, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation advanced in the area of Vasukovka village, starting battles for the villages of Bondarnoe and Khromovka. More than 5 sq. km have been liberated.

And here, for some reason, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have the manic determination to retake anything as they did in Kupyansk. They simply abandon positions and flee. Zelensky and Syrsky will not come here.

Donbass has “suddenly” become unimportant for the Deal. The value of Kharkov region, especially the eastern and northeastern parts, has come to the forefront.

Condotierro 

Kupyansk

Local battles are still ongoing around the city and on its outskirts. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continue attempts to break through and establish control in the city. In the area of Kondrashovka, Moskovka, Ryadkovka, and Yubileyny settlements — it is partially a gray zone. Without mutual control.

The enemy has brought reserves to the Kupyansk Uzlovoy area and Kovsharovka over the past day. Mostly mercenaries — Latinos and criminals released under amnesty.

The AFU’s “counteroffensive” on the western flank of the city is not large-scale; their task is to recapture parts of the city, penetrate the center, and hold it for several days. Pure PR.

Moreover, the enemy’s losses during this “operation” are disproportionately large. The goal does not justify the costs.

Condotierro 

Kupiansk Schrödinger

What is happening in the city?

Hysteria around who controls Kupiansk continues to gain momentum. Trying to parry numerous fake reports (https://t.me/rybar/75946) from the Ukrainian side, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a routine “propaganda” statement from the press center of the West military group. According to him, “the city is under full control of the Russian Armed Forces”, and “several small enemy groups are blocked in the southern districts of the city”.

➡️Later, another unofficial West military group channel posted (https://t.me/operationall_space/8355) a video allegedly showing 6th Army soldiers “patrolling” the city streets. At the same time, the coordinates mentioned in the post cannot be unambiguously geolocated, and the weather hardly matches that of recent weeks: alternating rain and snow.

➡️Against this background, the AFU continue to publish footage of varying “freshness”, including Brazilian mercenary units on the western outskirts of Kupiansk. At the moment, the lack of current videos from the scene is the only stumbling block preventing the West military group’s information warriors from complete defeat in the internet space.

❗️In general, problems with media coverage of this sector have been observed for a long time. Back in early November, we wrote about strange TASS reports (https://t.me/rybar/75034) about “control of Kupiansk” in the next 3 days from “local commanders”. In current realities, such statements look like a poorly staged anti-crisis measure and only harm the situation. The consequences (https://t.me/rybar/75918) of such false reports have yet to be fully assessed.

➡️Last night, news agencies Vesti, RIA Novosti, “Zvezda”, and TASS almost simultaneously published messages that “information from Ukrainian media (https://t.me/rian_ru/329192) about the AFU allegedly taking control of Kondrashivka, Radkivka, and Moskovka is unreliable”. We note that the presence of the AFU in these settlements has not been confirmed at the moment. They are either in the “gray zone” or under Russian control. This raises some questions about the “cause for concern”.

📌 Such unsupported messages against the backdrop of a truly difficult situation in the city look extremely contradictory and hardly play into the hands of Russian troops repelling daily AFU attacks in the city.

The command of the units operating here should definitely adopt the extremely useful practice of publishing flags from liberated settlements and only then officially report on controlling a particular settlement online.

This approach helped resolve issues in the Lyman (https://t.me/rybar/75372) and Siversk (https://t.me/rybar/75404) directions, and also worked perfectly in the East Zaporizhia sector. One can only hope that the commanders fighting for Kupiansk will draw the necessary conclusions before it becomes too late.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of December 17, 2025

▪️ The enemy attacked with drones at night in Krasnodar Krai, targeting, among other things, an oil refinery. In the Slavyansk district, 2 people were injured, and at least 5 private homes were damaged. Fragments of drones were found in the private sector of Slavyansk-on-Kuban and the Pribrezhnoye settlement. Roofs were damaged, windows were broken. Damage to the power supply network was reported in the district center. In the Krasnoarmeysky district, fragments of drones were found at nine addresses. Drone fragments fell in the Starchikovskaya, Protichka, and Krizhanovsky settlements, and there was damage to private homes. Drones were shot down over six districts of the Rostov region, and property of a private enterprise was damaged in the Nikolayevskaya settlement of the Konstantinovsky district. Reports of air defense operations in the Saratov region were reported.

▪️ In the Belgorod- Dnestrovsky region, the enemy attacked a substation immediately after, and the power outage in the region was extended for another day. Explosions were heard in Kiev (TEC-6 area) and in Kramatorsk, and the “Geraniums” were operating on targets in the Chernigov, Sumy, and Dnepropetrovsk regions.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the GR “North” is engaged in fierce battles with the support of aviation, artillery, and TOCs. Our forces continue to advance on several sections of the front and have reached Andreevka.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, a UAV of the AFU attacked a car on the Ustinka-Yasnye Zori road, and a couple was seriously injured. In the Gora-Podol village, a couple was also injured in a drone attack on a car.

▪️ In the Kharkov direction, the GR “North” is expanding the zone of control in the area of the liberated Volchansk. They report on advances near Staritsa, near Liman, in Vilcha, and in Volchansky Hutors. Continuing battles in the Melovoe-Khatnye area and on the Litsovsky section of the front are reported.

▪️ Southeast of Red Liman – battles in the direction of the Ozernoe settlement.

▪️ On the North direction, the Russian Army continues to push back the AFU, levelling the front and freeing up forces. The enemy admits the closure of several “pockets” in the area of the city taken by our forces.

▪️ On the Slavyansk direction, the enemy notes the intensification of the Russian Army’s operations and has advanced northwest of Sacco and Vanzetti and near the Pazeno settlement.

▪️ On the Konstantinovsky direction, the Russian Army levelled the front east of the city.

▪️ North of the liberated Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), reports of battles in the area of Novoe Shakhovo (Rosa Luxemburg) are reported. On the Druzhkovsky direction, reports of battles in the area of Oktyabrskoe (Shakhovo) are reported. Constant counterattacks by the enemy indicate the desire of the enemy’s command to tie up our forces in battles, despite the loss of the AFU of Krasnoarmeysk.

▪️ Continuing battles for Gulyaypole. The enemy complains that the GR “East” is stretching its reserves by engaging them in battles in the areas near Varvarovka and Dobropillia. Heavy weapons and drones (https://t.me/dva_majors/85112) are working in Gulyaypole. The situation for the AFU is characterized by the channels of the enemy as “very difficult”. 

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, a new element of the situation is reports of our advance towards Lukyanovsk (northeast of Stepnogorsk, where battles continue). The AFU attempted an attack on the Zaporozhye NPP, and a communication line between the open switchgear of the nuclear and thermal power plants was damaged, the radiation background is normal. As a result of the AFU attack, the normal power supply to the city of Vasilyevka was disrupted. A car parking in the city of Vasilyevka was also attacked. A woman was killed by a drone strike in Pologi.

▪️ In the Kherson region in Kakhovka, a 78-year-old woman was injured in a shelling of an administrative building. Numerous settlements are under AFU attacks.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_17.html