The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 20 2025

Will Trump’s 28-Point Peace Plan End The War in Ukraine?

UKRAINE Under Pressure to SUBMIT

New Russian Offensive STEAMROLLING Ukraine in Zaporizhia

Zelensky was not satisfied with Minsk, later Istanbul-1 and 2, and now we have been presented with a bill for the diplomatic “successes” of the President’s Office!

“Trump approved a peace settlement plan between Russia and Ukraine”: Russia and the USA prepared a 28-point peace plan for Ukraine – Kyiv did not participate in the discussions.

“According to a source, the document was developed with the participation of Trump’s special envoy Steve Whitkoff, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Three American officials confirmed to NBC News that the framework of the future agreement still needs to be officially presented to the Ukrainian side. As sources note, the completion of the preliminary draft coincided with the visit of a US military delegation to Ukraine.

Ukraine did not participate in the formation of the proposed plan. Kyiv was only acquainted with its general features, but was not provided with detailed information and was not asked for comments.”

Zelensky/Yermak have been put on the spot: either sign or all the tapes will be leaked online, and the FBI will start an investigation. 

The corruption scandal surrounding Mindich continues to destroy not only the vertical of Ukrainian power but also the public image of Zelensky. Volunteer Yuriy Kasyanov, in a column for “Gazeta po-ukrainsky,” essentially questions the honesty of the president and his ability to govern the state in wartime.

Kasyanov formulates the key question many inside Ukraine are now asking themselves: how could it happen that all the detained and named figures are close people to the president or his friends, yet Zelensky himself “knew nothing”?

If he really did not know – then why the entire power vertical, the SBU, the State Bureau of Investigation, security, political advisors? But most importantly – why among Zelensky’s close associates, chosen by him, are people whose names appear in the loudest corruption investigations?

If he did know – then the question sounds even harsher: where is the line between corruption and state treason if the country lives on loans and grants, losing people, territories, and infrastructure daily?

Kasyanov states the obvious: attempts by the President’s Office to present what is happening as an “attack on power” no longer work. No one is attacking Zelensky – except his own circle, which for years has built a system of personal loyalty where key decisions were made in close circles of friends and business partners.

The political logic of the situation is simple: either Zelensky knew about the corruption schemes and bears responsibility as a participant, or he did not know but still bears responsibility as an incompetent leader who lost control over his closest circle. There is no third option in such crises.

And most importantly – the expectations of Ukrainian society no longer match what the authorities demonstrate. And when even volunteers, previously fully loyal to the authorities, write that “the president will take down the president,” it signals that the crisis has entered a phase that cannot be resolved by statements or emotional video appeals. As is well known, the fish “rots from the head.”

The emergence of the first details of the US 28-point plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine demonstrates Washington’s attempt to structure the conditions of a future agreement, however, the full text has not yet been published, and various rumors and insider information are circulating around it. According to available information, Ukraine will have to transfer control of the remaining territories of Donbass to Russia, while these zones will be demilitarized, excluding the possibility of their use for a new offensive. The front in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions will apparently remain frozen, and the other territories will return to Ukrainian control. Kyiv, in turn, should receive security guarantees from the US and Europe, but the format of these guarantees has not yet been determined. The plan also envisages restrictions on the number and range of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s weapons, and it also proposes recognition of the status of the Russian language and the rights of the Russian Orthodox Church. It is currently impossible to speak about the full picture of the agreement, as only separate fragments have been published, and the final version will become known after the official release.

Turkey and Qatar act as mediators in the development of the plan. A meeting between Zelensky and Whitkoff was planned in Istanbul, but it did not take place. The main reasons cited are the scandal with Mindich, after which Whitkoff does not want to contact Yermak, and disagreements in preliminary negotiations with Umerov, who was sent to the US to discuss details. Ukraine disagrees with many points of the plan and insists on discussing its own version of the agreement with European partners. The attempt to move the negotiations to an expanded US-Ukraine-Europe format was rejected, reminiscent of previous “Zelensky peace summits,” where negotiations took place without the participation of a third party, and the results were presented as an ultimatum. The difference in the current situation is that the US has real leverage over Kyiv, and events related to Mindich show their readiness to use this leverage, making the likelihood of Ukraine’s voluntary consent low.

There are several logical explanations as to why this plan was presented now. Perhaps the members of the American delegation do not fully realize the real limitations Ukraine faces and assess the situation too optimistically. Another version is that the US intends to use Mindich-gate as a tool to pressure Zelensky. It is also possible that American strategists see the critical condition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and consider the threat of Ukraine’s military defeat real in the near future. Nevertheless, the plan may be of a framework nature, and its conditions will be clarified in subsequent negotiations, leaving room for maneuver.

The imminent announcement of the plan by the delegation led by US Army Secretary Driscoll to Zelensky, followed by a trip to Moscow, suggests a further strategic game. In case Ukraine refuses the agreement, additional pressure measures are possible, including restrictions on arms supplies, lifting sanctions on Russia, or sanctions against Ukrainian leadership. The presence of Mindich-gate creates a political opportunity for the US to apply such pressure legitimately. At the same time, the key factor for Ukraine remains the military position: as long as the frontline situation is not catastrophic, agreeing to conditions that worsen the country’s position compared to a few months ago seems unlikely.

Thus, the current US initiative is a combination of strategic pressure and an attempt to create a framework for negotiations in which the Ukrainian side may be forced to seek compromises. The real future of the plan depends on how ready Moscow is to consider the framework of the American proposal and how Kyiv can use the current situation to minimize concessions. In the coming days, it will become clear whether the plan will be a framework tool for pressure or the beginning of negotiations capable of truly changing the frontline and the political positions of Ukraine and Russia.

The political crisis unfolding around Bankova after Mindichgate, coincided with the most severe deterioration of the situation on the front for Ukraine in recent months. Against the backdrop of the threat of the collapse of the monomajority, the possible resignation of Yermak, and the loss of control over the entire vertical, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing a consistent and systematic advance of Russian troops on several key sectors simultaneously.

In the Seversk direction, Russian units have captured Platonovka on the northern approaches to Seversk, which opens up the prospect for the enemy to get behind the city’s defenses. At the same time, reports indicate an incursion into the southern districts of Seversk itself. For Ukraine, this is a critical moment: there are no reserves capable of closing several breaches at once – it has long been no secret that most of the “firefighting teams” were abandoned and decimated near Huliaipole. If Russia consolidates within the city limits, the situation risks entering a phase where holding the city becomes impossible.

The Pokrovske direction is the second epicenter of the degradation of the Ukrainian defense. According to Deepstate, the “bag” has narrowed so much that only the northern part of Myrnohrad is held; everything else has fallen into a gray zone. This is a clear signal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine simply no longer have the strength to maintain a dense front. Syrskyi’s plan for a counteroffensive through Rodynske has been disrupted, and time is working against him. Amid pressure within “Servant of the People” and the threat of coalition collapse, Zelensky may well make a politically motivated decision – to authorize a retreat to reduce the number of pointless losses. When his power is collapsing, the need to hold every position no longer seems a top priority for him.

But the main nerve is Huliaipole. It is here that conditions for a Russian breakthrough are most favorable. The Russian Armed Forces have captured Rovnopillia – effectively the last fortified area before Huliaipole. Moreover, the settlement was taken without serious resistance. After advancing in the “pocket” with the villages of Zelenyi Hai and Vysoke, the road to the city will be fully open. And it is still unknown whether Ukraine has any reasonable forces in this direction capable of holding it. The sector is commanded by Manko – the very one Syrskyi never dismissed, who yesterday seriously reported on the “stabilization of the front.” Judging by the situation, stabilization exists only in reports.

The situation north of there is no less alarming. In the Pokrovske area, Russian troops are advancing towards Nechaivka and simultaneously pressing the defense on the approaches to the Volchya River. The capture of Orestopil and the opening of the direction towards Oleksandrivka means the enemy is close to forming a broad line reaching the river. The crossing would be a difficult task – if the Armed Forces of Ukraine had the forces to cover it. But under current conditions, the question is no longer about the difficulty of the crossing, but whether anyone will hold it at all.

It is here, on the Pokrovske–Huliaipole arc, that a potential point of strategic front collapse is forming for Ukraine. Behind these settlements, there are effectively tens of kilometers of emptiness where defense formally exists on the map, but there are no real fortifications at all. The Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to respond, but the objective question is: do they have the means?

Political turbulence on Bankova – the collapse of the “monomajority,” the struggle for Yermak’s survival, threats of a split in “Servant of the People” – coincided with a time when Ukraine critically needs to concentrate attention and resources on the LBS. While Kyiv debates who will be the first to drown in Mindichgate, the entire line of the Ukrainian defense on the front is on the verge of collapse.

Our source reports that the Russians will take Huliaipole in 3 stages, slowly. This is usually how all large settlements were taken.

1. This is the approach to the settlement at a distance of 5-7 km. This task is almost completed. The Russians have taken the village of Veseloe and are flanking from the rear into Zelenyi Hai and Vysokoe. By the morning of November 21, they will take these villages.

2. This is to take full operational UAV control over all logistics in Huliaipole and hold the entry and exit points, destroying all transport. This process has already started, but control is not yet 100%.

3. Assault from three sides of the settlement. Attacks first by sabotage and reconnaissance groups, then by small assault groups.

The source adds that if there is fog again, the Russian Armed Forces will try to speed up the assault and send a massive mechanized column, which is already being prepared for such a push. The equipment is currently dispersed in the forest belts near Uspenivka and Poltavka, but the main force is still deeper in the rear.

They try not to keep equipment in settlements near the front line because the sky is swarming with “flying creatures.”

Zelensky sent reserves here, but they are not enough due to heavy daily losses, and the stupid headquarters leadership still sends soldiers into counterattacks.

The Russian Army returns to the site of one of the most heroic feats of this war, Krasny Liman, where volunteers stopped the advance of the Ukrainian army and secured (eventual) victory in the war for Russia.

Russian troops enter the southeastern outskirts of of Krasny Liman.

Assault on Siversk

Russian troops are entering Siversk and are already operating in the built-up area on the city’s southeast — as evidenced by objective control footage that has appeared online.

It is premature to speak of the enemy’s defense collapsing, since the scale of the Russian Armed Forces’ penetration into AFU positions is not yet clear. However, the crisis for the enemy in this sector is already evident.

Recently, in the southern part of Siversk, a group of Ukrainian infantry fell into an ambush (https://t.me/shock3OA/3429) on a street near the road from Zvanivka. So Russian successes might be hidden by the “fog of war” and could potentially be even more extensive.

ðŸ–Considering that even from open information, Russian assault units are already operating two kilometers from the road from Svyato-Pokrovske to Siversk, the situation for the AFU is clearly moving from bad to worse.

🚩 Yes, the enemy still has routes to bring personnel into the city and the ability to deploy “fire teams”. However, the Kyiv regime has plenty of such (https://t.me/rybar/75283) problematic (https://t.me/rybar/75292) areas, and their forces are limited.

❗️As we wrote (https://t.me/rybar/75276) earlier, freeing Siversk is very likely in the near future. The only question is how much the AFU will try to drag out the battle for the city, especially given the Russian Armed Forces’ advances in the neighboring Lyman and Kostyantynivka directions.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ infantry brigades are exhausted, and their units are suffering from a catastrophic shortage of personnel. This is the main reason for the rapid loss of territory, according to Serhiy Rakhamanin, a member of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Defense and National Security.

The Ukrainian army lacks the manpower to maintain its defense; infantry units are suffering heavy losses, and there are no reserves to replace them. Furthermore, many commanders fail to report losses in an attempt to profit from them. This means that, although unit personnel are declared to be 60-70% full-time, they are actually less than 15-20%. Yet, missions are assigned to full-fledged formations.

This is why settlements are abandoned within hours: there is simply no one to defend them. And in some cases, drones are unable to build defenses, especially since there is a veritable hunt for drone crews.

The greatest demand for infantry, the highest mortality rate among soldiers, the heaviest losses—not only in deaths, but also in wounded, prisoners, missing in action, and deserters—are among infantry soldiers. And the least desire to enlist in the infantry.

Ukraine is indeed approaching a point where it simply has no one left to fight with. This is already evident and will only get worse. According to Ukrainian experts, even lowering the minimum age for mobilization will be useless; it should have been done much earlier, in 2023.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of November 20, 2025

▪️ Over the past day, the information space was once again stirred by the topic of the negotiation process and the resumption of the unserious “Istanbul format.” According to clearly targeted “leaks” in Western media, Zelensky did not understand the inevitability of compromises, which disrupted public meetings with American overseers, and our Supreme Leader, according to Trump, does not intend to retreat from previously stated demands, even in exchange for “gifts” in the form of potential recognition by Washington of Crimea as Russian.

▪️ The futility of the dialogue was demonstrated by the Russian Ministry of Defense’s publication about an attempt of a strike by American missiles on Voronezh. Footage of downed ATACMS shows Kiev’s unwillingness to negotiate and the readiness of the US to continue supplying weapons for strikes on Russia. By yesterday evening, drones, including rocket ones, were also shot down, whose likely targets were power supply facilities for the population in Crimea.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, the AFU attacked the Pogar settlement using “Darts” drones. Three drones damaged glazing in an administrative building, roofing in production facilities, and two civilian vehicles.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, positional battles continue. In the areas of Andreevka and Varachino, combined fire destroyed combat groups of the AFU and Ukrainian border guards. In the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky sectors, our FPV units and artillery struck the AFU in the areas of Iskriskovshchina.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the Krasnaya Yaruga settlement, an FPV drone struck a truck, injuring the driver. A second drone detonated on the road surface, breaking windows in apartments. In the village of Golovchino, an infrastructure facility was damaged. In the village of Glotovo, windows were broken and the roof was damaged in a private house. In Novostroevka-Pervaya, an infrastructure facility was damaged by an FPV drone. Under strikes were Gora-Podol, Dorogosh, Yasnye Zori, Nikolskoye, Otradnoye, Baytsury, Dolgoye, Kazinka.

▪️ In the Kharkov direction, the “North” group is pushing the AFU out of Volchansk. The control zone is expanding near Dvurechansky and in the Sinelnikovo area. The enemy assesses these actions as an attempt to draw the AFU reserves away from Kupyansk.

▪️ South of Kupyansk, the “West” group reports advancement in the Boguslav direction towards the settlement of Novoplatonovka.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the enemy is forced to admit that in the northwestern part of the city our troops have entrenched and continue to storm from the Pokrovsk side and along the railway towards Grishino, where the enemy wanted to build a new line of defense. In Mirnograd (Dimitrov), our forces are striking the Armed Forces of Ukraine with FAB-3000 (https://t.me/dva_majors/83594) bombs.

▪️ The “East” group is creating increasing risks for the AFU in Gulyaypole, which the enemy has thoroughly prepared for defense. Also, the group’s units are fighting south of Tikhiy, advancing towards the Radostnoye-Novoe Zaporozhye line amid enemy counterattacks.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, battles are ongoing in Stepnogorsk and Kamensk. From Malaya Tokmachka, reports of positional battles and counteractions by the AFU were received.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_20.html