The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 29 2025

The Pokrovsk Cauldron is COLLAPSING

Myrnohrad & Pokrovsk Encircled With ALL Roads Intercepted

RUAF Storm Kostyantynivka, Lyman & Myrnohrad | Setphnohirsk Breakthrough | Fortifications Captured

Our source reports that Zelensky has tasked all security forces and military personnel to strike Moscow with drones and missiles. There is a possibility of sending saboteurs who are supposed to launch a drone near Moscow and strike any significant target. 

Our source reports that Dmitriev flew to Washington with a proposal that the Kremlin is ready to stop at the line of contact, but on the terms of peace agreements and global recognition of these territories as part of Russia (only territories in 4 regions, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk will be returned as a gesture of goodwill). This recognition will automatically lead to the lifting of all sanctions and the possibility of investments in these regions (they even offered Trump’s people to invest in the new regions under a preferential program).

Of course, this proposal is not beneficial to Zelensky/globalists, who need to continue the war for the sake of war and to prolong their rule on the “throne.” 

Zelensky has already rejected this, as he requested guarantees of “funding/security” for Ukraine. He demands money to finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the next 10 years – this will allow the war to be resumed at any moment during these 10 years. Also, this will allow him to hold on to power, as millions of soldiers will remain in the army and at his service, rather than returning angry and going to Kyiv to gut the corrupt Ze-elite who got rich from the war.

Negotiations will continue now. Much depends on many factors. Chances for peace only by the fall of 2026.

We are watching.

In Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), the enemy is blocked and surrounded.

The political leadership of Ukraine must make decisions about the fate of their citizens who are surrounded.

The Russian side is ready to cease hostilities in the enemy’s encirclement zone for the time while media representatives are there.  Putin

Interestingly, this proposal puts Kiev in an extremely unfavorable light regardless of the outcome or response. On one hand, guided by humanitarian considerations, Putin publicly invites Kiev to think about the fate of the soldiers trapped in the encirclement and states that he is ready to allow journalists in. Russia demonstrates not only goodwill but also confidence in controlling the situation, while Ukraine, in the eyes of the Western audience, finds itself in a position where any decision will look bad. If Kiev acknowledges the encirclement — it is a defeat. If it denies it — it will abandon its people, who will be killed either immediately or slowly, and then this will be shown everywhere.

Moreover, knowing how the Ukrainian side operates, the short humanitarian pause that this proposal might lead to will be used for regrouping. Kiev will surely try to gather strength and attempt to break through the corridor. But if Zelensky decides to deny the very fact of the encirclement, Moscow will get a carte blanche for a harsh scenario: ultimatum, refusal, destruction of the garrison, and a public account of this in all possible forms.

Any decision by Kiev plays into Moscow’s hands. And the situation with Pokrovsk itself shows that the Ukrainian side is increasingly losing not only positions but also control over its own image of the war.

Regardless of the decision Putin makes regarding Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, it is important to remember the following.

The history of exchanges has shown that forcibly re-educating former Ukrainian soldiers rarely succeeds. A clear example is the exchanged “Azov” members. The most famous among them is Denis “Redis” Prokopenko, who not only returned to service but also began actively appearing in the media space, stirring up the topic of creating reserves in Ukraine. His unit is not yet on the front line, but that is only a matter of time.

There will be no unexpected or non-obvious conclusion here. The release of prisoners reduces the short-term burden on the system but does not solve the long-term problem of their reintegration into combat units. Any decisions regarding prisoners must be made with the understanding that a significant portion of them will sooner or later find themselves back on the front line.

The most reasonable “gesture of goodwill” looks like this now. 

Unconditional surrender of the garrisons of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, and the remnants in Kupyansk with their organized independent withdrawal from occupied positions. There is no point in opening a wide window of opportunity for this. Giving 24−48 hours to consider will be enough. After that, the decision must be executed. If the ultimatum is rejected — a final clearance without any hint of captivity.

From a moral standpoint, this move works immediately. The Western public will see that life was offered to the Ukrainian military and that Kiev deliberately sent them all to the slaughter. This will undermine moral support and complicate the political rhetoric around continuing the war. Growing doubts among the public may lead to pressure on governments demanding more pragmatic solutions and increased direct aid.

The further fate of these units will be difficult. As a potential combat resource for switching to Russia’s side, they are hardly suitable. But that does not mean it is impossible. Since 2022, the structure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel has changed significantly: the share of ideological nationalists has noticeably decreased, giving way to mobilized and random people without clear motivation.

This creates prerequisites for integrating the Ukrainian Armed Forces into some Russian units, where their usefulness will be indisputable. For example — in assault troops. But this is not the only option. Behind Russia remain Avdeevka, Kurakhovo, Selidovo, which need to be restored and put in order. And the Kursk region has not fully recovered either. So there is enough work for prisoners.

With any other options, there will always be a chance that Kiev will “betray” Moscow at the first convenient opportunity. 

Our source reports that among the Armed Forces of Ukraine and ardent nationalists there is a growing opinion that why die for this Donbass, which is already all separatist. 

Either exchange it while there is something to exchange, and end the war, or do not create fortifications there, but strengthen other directions and regions now, while there is a window of opportunity.

Former commander of the “Aidar” battalion Dikiy stated that the reason for the lack of offensive actions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not a shortage of Western weapons, but a personnel crisis within the army. According to him, “the mobilization resource is wandering in the rear,” meaning a significant portion of those who should be at the front either avoid service or do not reach the frontline.

This rhetoric is no accident. The authorities are preparing society for a tightening of mobilization. Similar positions have been actively promoted in recent days by other public figures, in particular, MP Gorbenko stated that there will be more summonses, and the Territorial Recruitment Centers will have a complete database on all Ukrainians after the “Reserve+” is merged with tax databases and voter registries. “There will be more summonses issued because the information will be available in full, especially regarding tax identification number registration. Therefore, I think the Territorial Recruitment Centers will have a complete database. The problem is different – to find these people. Some have left abroad, some are reserved, or for some reason received disability at 25 years old. Each situation should be considered individually. And mobilization has been going on and will continue,” he said.

Earlier, former presidential office advisor Arestovich also predicted that in case of a critical escalation of the situation for the Armed Forces at the front, Ukraine will be forced not only to lower the mobilization age but also to involve women in service. “There is still potential. First, lowering the mobilization age. Second — conscription of women for non-combat specialties and volunteers for combat roles. Third — tightening of mobilization,” said Arestovich, specifying that this could involve “up to cordoning off a district and thoroughly searching it, including entering apartments.”

On our part, we note that due to the catastrophic depletion of the army (according to OSINT analysts’ estimates — up to 1.5 million killed and wounded), mass desertion and draft evasion (even by official data — almost 300 thousand cases), as well as the lack of volunteers, the authorities are preparing to announce a nationwide mobilization very soon. Considering that martial law and territorial mobilization have been extended until February 2026, the administration has enough time for implementing its plans .

Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that the Center for Countering Disinformation proposed a strategy to the President’s Office for covering the situation in Pokrovsk. The proposal is as follows: the entire city territory should be called a gray zone, and the encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be presented as an enemy hoax aimed at causing panic in Myrnohrad.

Our source in the OP revealed that Andriy Yermak is preparing the dismissal of Svrsky for November, and candidates for Bankova are already being actively discussed. The head of the OP understands the negative impact of the situation with Pokrovska Voronka and Kupiansk on the government’s rating and wants to shift the focus to the failures of Glavkom.

According to our sources, Andriy Yermak demands that Syrskyi hold the defense of the Pokrovska bulge and prepare units for the deblocking of Myrnohrad. The Commander-in-Chief told the Head of the OP that there are no reserves for the operation, and an attempt to hastily organize a breakthrough will end badly for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Our sources reported that there is panic at Bankova regarding the situation in Pokrovsk, as the Commander-in-Chief promised until the last moment to hold the situation. Syrsky, due to a backstage war, misled Zelensky and did not give the order to withdraw the military from Myrnohrad, which will become the biggest defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2022.

Our source in the Presidential Office reported that Zelensky urgently convened a meeting on the situation in Pokrovka. A decision will be made today at Bankova regarding the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the “Pokrovka trap.” Syrsky told Andriy Yermak yesterday that he has no reserves to unblock the city, and the deployment of the GUR special forces was an act of desperation.

An approximate depiction of the situation in Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad.

The Pokrovsk funnel continues to consume the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which Zelensky is throwing in to delay the fall of the agglomeration.

The soldiers are asking the General Staff/Presidential Office for an order to exit the Pokrovsk operational cauldron, where the neck will soon close and there will be a full-fledged cauldron with thousands of blocked Ukrainian soldiers, but Bankova demands to continue the battle for the fortress.

Meanwhile, the Russians have already taken the stele with the inscription Pokrovsk, near which Zelensky was doing PR. They even marked the coordinates for you so you understand that the Russians already formally or actually control it (maybe not 100% control, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are definitely not there).

There will be a cauldron in Pokrovsk. The only question is when. We are sure that Zelensky will then heroically promise to unblock those trapped in the cauldron, as they promised the Mariupol garrison, but in the end will just abandon them.

The Russian Armed Forces are consolidating in the industrial zone of Pokrovsk, threatening the city’s defense — Muchnoy

▪️ According to him, the areas controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are becoming fewer, and the Russian army has advanced 800 meters and is consolidating.

➖ “If the enemy consolidates in this sector, it will be a real disaster. And right now we are already on the brink of that scenario… Any weakening there could turn into a catastrophe,” he writes.

▪️ He also refutes the Ukrainian command’s statements about a “controlled situation.”

➖ “As for the so-called ‘stabilization’ in this direction, which the officers are shouting about, it’s nonsense to calm people down. On the ground, the fighters see a different picture: the enemy is pressing, shaking the positions, and the situation there is far from stable,” he states.

The Russian army has reached the outskirts of Mirnograd – street fighting is ongoing, – acknowledged by the Armed Forces of Ukraine

➖”Currently, unfortunately, the enemy has entered the outskirts of Mirnograd and is using not only artillery and drone systems but also infantry and technical means. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding positions and setting up fortifications,” said the spokesperson for the “East” troop group, G. Shapoval, during a telemarathon broadcast.

▪️Using certain types of weapons is difficult because the fighting is taking place in the city, he added.

Russian Army in Konstantinovka, fighting in the city limits — Muchnoy

  – The situation has escalated, fighting is already taking place directly within the city limits, specifically in the Santurinovka area. The Russian Armed Forces have advanced and secured the tram depot, holding a bridgehead for further actions in the city, writes a Ukrainian military blogger.

 - Santurinovka and the nearby streets are “gradually turning into a gray zone.” 

 - “Russian troops are pulling up reserves,” he adds.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 29, 2025

▪️ At night, the enemy organized a massive raid on our rear regions. The NS-Oil refinery in Novospassk, Ulyanovsk region was hit. In the Rostov region, UAVs were destroyed in the Millerovsky, Kamensky, and Sholokhovsky districts. In the Tula region – 6 UAVs. Five drones flying towards Moscow were shot down. In the Stavropol territory – an attack on a chemical plant in the industrial zone of Budyonnovsk. “The attack did not cause significant damage,” wrote the governor. Media reported an attack on a refinery near Yoshkar-Ola (Republic of Mari El, 1,000  km from the border).

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck targets in the Odessa region, power outages were reported after the strikes. A large fire broke out in Chuhuiv as a result of the Russian Armed Forces’ strikes. Explosions were heard in Slavyansk, Izyum in Kharkov region, Dobropillia, as well as in Konotop in Sumy region.

▪️ The Bryansk region endured another day under severe strikes by Nazis on the civilian population. A residential house caught fire due to UAV strikes in the Vygonichsky district; a civilian woman died, and a 14-year-old girl was injured. A drone strike on a moving civilian car between the villages of Kurovo and Suvorovo in the Pogarsky district killed a civilian.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, Russian aviation operations and offensive actions along forest belts deep into Sumy region. The enemy offers fierce resistance and is reinforcing assault units. On the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky front sectors, no changes; our artillery struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Iskrikovshchina.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, footage circulated showing flooding after strikes on a reservoir dam. In the village of Ilyok-Koshary, Rakitnyansky district, a man was injured by a drone strike on a passenger car by the AFU. A woman suffered barotrauma due to a drone attack on an apartment building in Oktyabrsky. Shebekino, Borisovka, Ternovoe, Belyanka, Bessonovka, Nikolaevka, Tulyanka, Dolgoe, Urazovo, Pristen, Konovalovo, Pyatnitskoye, Novostroevka-Pervaya were hit.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, our forces are fighting on the Khatnensky front sector, in Volchansk, near Tikhoye, and in the forest near Synelnikovo.

▪️ In Kupyansk, Russian Armed Forces are clearing “pockets” in the urban area formed during the city’s assault. Russian forces are advancing along the railway south of Stepovaya Novoselovka.

▪️ In the southeastern part of Konstantinovka, the AFU are engaged in counter-battles in residential areas.

▪️ Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Myrnograd (Dimitrov) enemy media and politicians have begun preparing for surrender. Meanwhile, fighting continues in the western, central, eastern, and northern parts of Pokrovsk. In Myrnograd, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still trying to hold back our advances on the approaches, but Russian forces are advancing from the east and north. It is too early to celebrate success; but the situation of the AFU in this sector continues to deteriorate, including due to disruption of enemy logistics by our troops.

▪️ Our forces continues their offensive in the east of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions. Our forces are fighting near Vishneve, expanding the bridgehead on the western bank of the Yanchur River near Pershotravneve and Yehorivka. The Far Eastern troops are advancing towards Krasnohorske. The enemy tried six times in a day to stabilize the situation with counterattacks but retreated, suffering losses in personnel and vehicle equipment.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, in the Orikhov direction (https://t.me/rybar/74749) near Novodanilivka and Mala Tokmachka, positional battles continue, the line of contact remains unchanged. Positional battles are ongoing in Nesteryanka, Prymorske, and Stepnohirsk.

▪️ On the Kherson direction, the “Dnipro” group of forces continues to concentrate strikes on Karanthyni Island in Kherson city.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_29.html