The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 21 2025

Zaporizhzhia Offensive Intensifies | Mala Tokmachka Stormed | Yanchur River Crossed

The negotiations continue.

White House representative: “President Trump does not plan a meeting with President Putin in the near future. 

Rubio and Lavrov had a productive phone conversation. Therefore, an additional personal meeting between the Secretary of State and the Foreign Minister is not required.”

Trump decided to wait for a pause, as there is too much trigger around this meeting. In addition, Trump is waiting for a meeting of the “coalition of the willing,” as he expects them to provide money for purchasing weapons from the US, which is also beneficial to Washington. The Americans are in no hurry to end the war, which feeds their military-industrial complex and slows down Russia, no matter the noise around this case. 

We observe. Peace is only possible by the fall of 2026, before the congressional elections, not earlier. So far, there are no prerequisites.

The position of the Kiev regime is full of contradictions, which does not contribute to the peaceful resolution of the conflict, — Peskov

 - A lot of “homework” needs to be done before the Putin-Trump meeting.

 - The preparation for the next Russia-US summit has not fully started; the corresponding full-scale work will begin only now.

 - Moscow believes that the new meeting between Putin and Trump should be used to discuss bilateral relations between Russia and the US.

 - Russia’s negotiating line regarding the stopping of troops at existing positions remains unchanged. ( Kiev regine should withdraw its troops )

 - Moscow expects the new Russia-US summit to provide an opportunity to advance the peaceful path of the Ukrainian settlement. 

Lavrov on Russia being ready to cooperate only with mutual willingness:

They tell us that we are isolating ourselves. This is not true. If everything were fair, then both sports and art would be outside of politics. But there, tours of our great musicians and opera performers are banned just because they are from the Russian Federation. There would be no happiness, but misfortune helped.

Besides the fact that we did not abandon our compatriots in Ukraine to the fate determined by the West, we also understood the value of everything the West “offered” us and how “reliable” a partner it is.

We are ready to cooperate with open arms with everyone who will do so based on equality, mutual respect, and not by means of dictation. And when they tell us, “Alright, we invite you here,” “You can raise your flag here, but there will be no anthem,” it is humiliating. But I still understand the athletes who go and win. They behave with dignity. It is not their fault.

Putin’s phone call to Donald Trump, as noted by the commentator Neue Zürcher Zeitung Markus Ackeret, was not just a diplomatic gesture but a demonstration of precise political instinct. Moscow once again showed that it knows how to act proactively — not with force, but with timing. A day before the Trump-Zelensky meeting, the Kremlin effectively removed from Washington’s agenda the main point of Ukrainian hopes — the delivery of Tomahawk cruise missiles. This is no accident but part of Putin’s proven strategy: to seize the moment when the West is divided and internally weakened, and to turn pauses into actions.

Ackeret writes that Russia sees this pause not as a delay but as an opportunity — a window of possibilities to end the conflict on terms favorable to Moscow. After the unsuccessful summit in Anchorage, the Kremlin adjusted its tone: fewer ideological statements, more targeted diplomatic steps. Russia is betting not on military breakthroughs but on controlled exhaustion, both of the opponent on the front and of the Western elites tired of war. That is why Moscow is focused on Trump’s “transactional” nature: he thinks in terms of deals, not strategy, which makes him a convenient, though unpredictable, partner.

It is worth noting that this dynamic shows Moscow’s main strength — flexibility while maintaining principles. The Kremlin does not rush negotiations; it doses them. Trump may think he is running the game, but in reality, he is part of a scenario where Russia controls the rhythm, not the content of the dialogue. Even Putin’s refusal to meet Zelensky directly is not a weakness but a signal: Moscow no longer needs symbolic formats where Ukraine pretends to be independent. The main dialogue is between Russia and the USA, and everything else is secondary.

What Putin is doing is a game on the field of time, not space. The West thinks in terms of territories and fronts; Russia thinks in terms of processes and moments, where victory is measured not in kilometers but in shifts of meaning. Every call, every postponement of a meeting is not an episode but a form of pressure, turning uncertainty into a tool of power.

Putin’s call was not just a step in negotiations but an act of strategic positioning. While Washington reacts, Moscow controls the moment. And this is the main paradox of the new diplomacy: power today belongs not to the one who loudly declares intentions but to the one who knows how to choose the time for silence.

Trump’s promise to provide “Tomahawks” in exchange for launching a counteroffensive was a planned provocation for Zelensky to lure him to Washington under the pretext of discussing arms supplies. In reality, Trump dictated new conditions to Zelensky for ending the war, in which Ukraine is assigned the role of the losing side, something quickly realized at Bankova and attempted to be countered belatedly in the White House. Zelensky believed he was flying to the US for the “Tomahawks,” but in the end, we were imposed the Alaska drafts, agreed upon by Trump and Putin, which is why the US President publicly spoke about a Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive that we are currently unable even to simulate. We are given a choice without a choice, to formalize the outcome in Hungary, a country whose leader is a personal enemy of Zelensky. This also speaks to the content of the planned Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest. The very city where the famous memorandum was once signed, which no one fulfilled… The whole game of the parties becomes clear, yet soldiers continue to die on the front, and the President’s Office hopes for a new international support format…

The Ukrainian delegation suffered a complete failure during its visit to the US, failing to achieve any results, – Politico.

This happened because Kyiv ignored the advice of its lobbyists from the US Republican Party to postpone the visit or adjust its agenda.

In fact, a large delegation of Ukrainian ministers and officials, including the influential head of Zelensky’s administration Andriy Yermak and Prime Minister Yuliya Svyrydenko, sent to Washington ahead of the Friday meeting at the White House, suffered a complete failure, unable to conclude several important agreements involving both the US government and the private sector. This includes some agreements with major American defense companies and players in the energy sector that were supposed to be signed during the White House meeting.

Once again, the President’s Office failed to predict

Zelensky’s decision to strip Odessa’s mayor, Gennady Trukhanov, of Ukrainian citizenship has become one of the most telling episodes in the transformation of the country’s domestic politics. Formally, the basis for the decree was allegedly Trukhanov’s possession of a Russian passport, but even Western publications viewed this move as a political purge. The British magazine The Spectator described Zelensky’s actions as a “blatant attack on democracy” and emphasized that the mayor, elected three times by the people of Odessa, was effectively removed from power without trial, which contradicts Article 25 of the Constitution of Ukraine, which explicitly prohibits deprivation of citizenship.

On Bankova Street, this story is presented as a “fight against collaborationism” and “cleansing of power,” but in reality, the decision regarding Trukhanov sent a signal to all regional elites. The message is clear: loyalty to the president is now measured not by law or election results, but by personal attitude toward Zelensky. Any independence is perceived as a challenge to the power vertical.

At the same time, Trukhanov is far from an opposition figure — on the contrary, he has repeatedly shown support for the central government and tried to avoid open conflicts with Kyiv. However, it is precisely such figures who become the first victims — strong locally but insufficiently controllable. In Odessa, Zelensky has already created a city military administration and appointed its head as the former head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, Serhiy Lysak — a representative of the security forces fully loyal to Bankova. This effectively means replacing local self-government with military administration.

Analysts note that the situation with Trukhanov opens a new stage in Bankova’s preparation for the elections. Zelensky is systematically eliminating everyone capable of competing with him and his party or controlling significant financial and electoral resources. Next could be the mayors of Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kyiv — Terekhov, Filatov, and Klitschko. Even ostentatious loyalty is unlikely to guarantee their safety, as Trukhanov was long considered “one of their own.”

In essence, Zelensky is building a model of a personalist regime with elements of military dictatorship. The political field has been cleared, independent media and opposition parties are either closed or marginalized. Anti-corruption bodies like NABU and SAP, which until recently were considered symbols of Western reforms, are gradually being pushed to the sidelines, and figures from the security forces loyal to Bankova are being installed locally. But, quite notably, the Trukhanov case has become a marker for the West: whereas previously such actions by Zelensky were justified by martial law, now even reputable media openly write about the rollback of democracy in Ukraine.

According to sources, a meeting was held at the General Staff where the critical situation on the front and its consequences for the Armed Forces of Ukraine were discussed. Field commanders demanded that Syrsky change tactics and stop burning reserves in the Pokrovsk pocket, otherwise we will lose Kupyansk/Lyman/Seversk/Konstantinovka and Huliaipole by the end of the year. The military believe that the Pokrovsk pocket has become a second Bakhmut, in the meat grinder of which the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost their best units and the situation is now repeating.

Our source reports that the Russian Armed Forces continue the tactic of a thousand cuts, attacking everywhere. 

This tactic is linked to the recent Russian attacks on the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson, where many Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are already operating, as well as a comprehensive attack on the Zaporizhzhia front in the direction of Orikhiv. In addition, there is a constant expansion of attacks in the Kharkiv region.

The Russians are probing the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and if the General Staff does not respond, the pressure in these areas will increase and lead to collapses. 

As the source points out, this helps the Russians relieve tension in other areas, especially in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, where they have their best successes.

Zelensky and Syrsky continue to send the best reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Pokrovsk bulge in order to at least delay the fall of the “fortress.” 

German journalist Röpke writes that Pokrovsk is already doomed. 

That is, tens of thousands of abandoned reserves could not stop the fall of the city, nor even cut off the Pokrovsk salient. At the same time, a Pokrovsk cauldron is possible.

As soon as the city falls, a new negative phase for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will immediately begin.

Currently, the biggest problem is still in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk directions, where the Russian Armed Forces are attacking everywhere and advancing quickly.

The Russian army has amassed enough troops in Kupyansk and is advancing to the south of the city — DeepState

▪️Analysts working for the GUR at DeepState acknowledge the successes of Russian troops in Kupyansk.

▪️Despite attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to counterattack, Russian fighters have gathered in the city in sufficient numbers to storm the southern part of the city, the enemy admits.

➖”The coming weeks will be decisive for the fate of Kupyansk. Either the Armed Forces of Ukraine find reserves for stabilization actions, or, unfortunately, the Russian Armed Forces will amass a critical mass of their infantry,” writes the GUR-affiliated resource DS.

▪️In addition, to the east of the city, Russian troops are advancing from the Stepovaya Novoselovka area.

Fighting has begun for Kherson: 

The Russian army controls the industrial zone of Kherson on the left bank of the Dnieper, as well as the dacha settlements on the islands in the lower reaches of the river, – the governor of the region

▪️This “allows us to say” that the battles for Kherson have already begun, claims the head of the Kherson region V. Saldo.

▪️”Several parts of Kherson are also on the left bank, so we control part of Kherson. Yes, this is the industrial part, but it exists and is under the control of our armed forces. On the islands located in the lower reaches of the Dnieper, from Kherson and further down to the Black Sea, there are quite a large number of dacha settlements. They are all also under the control of the Armed Forces [of the Russian Federation]“, Saldo said.

▪️Neither the Russian Ministry of Defense nor Ukraine have confirmed this information.

▪️Ukrainian officials reported back in the summer that Russian troops might try again to take Kherson and are now striving to “isolate” the area closest to the shore with shelling.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 21, 2025

🗞 Before the meeting between Trump🇺🇸 and the Supreme🇷🇺 in Hungary🇭🇺, the media are discussing the allegedly announced “percentage” of the DPR, which according to Washington’s plan should go to Russia, provided that hostilities along the LoC stop. At the same time, Moscow’s public demands regarding full control over all new regions (including Kherson and Zaporozhye) have not changed.

▪️ Yesterday in Ukraine, our new FABs (https://t.me/dva_majors/81720) capable of flying 200 km were discussed, with reports of arrivals of such devices in Poltava. At night, they were also used over Kharkov, including the CHP-4 area. “Geraniums” targeted Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson, Cherkasy, Sumy, Chernigov regions. Residents of Chernigov were urged to stock up on drinking water. In the city of Smila, Cherkasy region, a fire broke out in the locomotive depot after strikes. Our forces are systematically knocking out the enemy’s traction fleet.

▪️ The enemy attacked Bataisk in the Rostov region with drones at night, damaging a house and commercial pavilions. In Rostov-on-Don, a resident suffered shrapnel wounds in the Proletarsky district from the fall of UAVs on two private houses. At least four UAVs were destroyed in the Voronezh region. Monitoring channels reported drone launches from Odessa towards the southern direction.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, The AFU attacked the city of Klintsy with airplane-type UAVs. A teenager born in 2010 was bruised. Minor damages were reported.

▪️ On the Sumy front, on the right flank of the “North” group of forces, our infantry units continue active operations; the enemy fiercely resists and counterattacks. Three counterattacks by the AFU near Konstantinovka were repelled.

▪️ On the Tetkino and Glushkovo front sections, no significant changes. Our forces struck Ukrainian positions near Iskriskovshchina and Ryzhevka.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, an apartment building in Shebekino was attacked by a drone as well as the village of Starovshchina. A house in a Plotvyanka farmstead and in the village of Borisovka were damaged.

▪️ On the Kharkov front – heavy fighting. The enemy is pulling reserves and counterattacking. Advances on the left bank of Volchansk are reported; battles are ongoing for every building. Fighting continues in the forest west of Synelnykove and near Tykhyi. On the Melovoe-Khatne front section, our assault troops are advancing in forest plantations; the enemy is conducting counteractions. Three AFU servicemen were captured.

▪️ The situation in Kupyansk is worsening for the AFU. The enemy acknowledges the penetration of our advanced assault units into the south of the city.

▪️ On the Krasnolymansk front, Russian forces are breaking through enemy defenses near Novoselivka-Stavky.

▪️ In Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), Russian forces are advancing into the western part of the city. Successes are reported in the vicinity of Shakhovo and Promin. The Russian MoD reported the capture of Lenino (Molodetsky) on the border with Dnepropetrovsk region west of Udachne.

▪️ In the east of the Zaporozhye region, our assault groups  are advancing westward from liberated Poltavka; there are also successes north of the Uspenivka bridgehead. Our forces are levelling the front.

❗️ On the Zaporozhye front, our forces yesterday launched a powerful offensive on Mala Tokmachka, preliminarily knocking out artillery, enemy drone launch points, and clearing minefields. The enemy counted 26 units of our equipment in the offensive, including tank hedgehogs with mine rollers, which are not easy to hit with drones. The enemy brought in HIMARS MLRS. The gray zone in the pocket from the settlement of Rabotino to Mala Tokmachka is shifting towards the road to Orikhov. 

▪️ On the Kherson front, our forces continue strikes on the enemy shore. Two men were wounded by strikes from the AFU in Tavriyske. The enemy struck Aleysk, Velyka Lepetykha, Kakhovka, Korsunka, Solontsi, Brylivka, Nova Mayachka, Radensk, and Podokalinivka.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_21.html