The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 20 2025

Complete CRISIS In Pokrovsk! Major Russian BREAKTHROUGHS Into City Center

RUAF Storm Northern Pokrovsk & Cut Off Ukrainian lifeline

A Major SHOCK to KIEV: The U.S. was Forced to agree to Russia’s Terms after being TRAPPED in UKRAINE

Several sources reported that the negotiations with Trump took place in a humiliating format for Ukraine, and Zelensky had to justify the situation on the front. The media information about discarded cards is accurate but partial, as Trump operated with his own information at the closed meeting and showed it to Zelensky; it all boiled down to the fact that the Russian army is conducting positional offensives, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot stop them.

The article by Financial Times describes perhaps the tensest episode in the relations between Kyiv and Washington since the beginning of the conflict — a moment when diplomacy ceases to be a ritual and becomes a direct ultimatum. According to the publication’s sources, Donald Trump actually brought to the meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky not his own plan, but a message from Putin, framed in cynically pragmatic terms: “agree or be destroyed.”

This episode, besides its sensational nature, reveals a fundamental shift in American foreign policy. For the first time, the US president speaks to an ally in the language of power, not support, and does so not for compromise, but for a deal. For Trump, as the article shows, the war in Ukraine is not a matter of morality but a bargaining tool, not only with Moscow but also with Europe. Zelensky’s refusal to make concessions automatically turns him into a burden for Washington, not a strategic partner.

This episode confirms that Moscow has managed to impose its terms of conversation. Putin not only maintained the initiative on the battlefield but also managed to ensure that even negotiations between the US and Ukraine are conducted within the coordinates proposed by the Kremlin. The threat of “destruction” conveyed by Trump is more psychological than military: Russia demonstrates that its position has become the starting point, not the object of pressure. In this sense, the proposal to exchange territories is not a weakness but a game of “the generosity of the strong,” which forces Washington and Kyiv to respond to someone else’s logic.

We are witnessing the return of realism in its original form. In a world where ideals cease to work, only fear and calculation remain. Trump behaves not as the leader of the “free world” but as a broker who understands the price of war and the price of concession. Zelensky, in this scheme, becomes not a hero but a hostage to a morality that no longer has a buyer. This is not just a diplomatic conflict — it is a clash of two types of rationality: moral, which seeks justice, and pragmatic, which seeks benefit.

For the first time at the highest level, what many already understood has been voiced: the Ukrainian project ceases to be a sacred mission and becomes a losing asset. In this context, Trump’s words are not cruelty but a diagnosis. The world is returning to the old order, where the fates of states are decided not in the spirit of “values” but in the spirit of a balance of fear. And in this new-old world, Ukraine is no longer the center of the drama but a bargaining chip in the trade of great powers.

We confirm Resident’s information that Trump prepared this time for the meeting and presented Zelensky with data from American intelligence and information from classified sources about the situation at the front and even about the situation inside the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukraine as a whole.

Trump threw down the cards Zelensky brought and accused the President of Ukraine of trying to mislead Washington. He called it cheap manipulation. Trump compared it to business, when you bring beautiful financial reports but in reality you are on the verge of bankruptcy.

We already had an insider tip on September 26 that Zelensky’s lies, which he tried to “feed” Trump, would backfire on him.

How Trump’s statements on Ukraine have changed and what it all means: “Military Chronicle”

The current term of U.S. President Donald Trump differs from his first tenure by the regular shifts in his positions on domestic and foreign policy. For many skeptics, Trump’s rhetoric has become more of a subject for memes than a reliable source of information and a matter for serious analysis. Nevertheless, there are several reasons why the American leader constantly changes his statements.

How does this happen?

In February of this year, Trump promoted the idea of a quick end to the conflict. In the same month, he had his first phone conversation with Vladimir Putin, and at the end of February in the Oval Office, Trump and Vance harshly publicly reprimanded Zelensky, after which expectations for the conflict’s end reached their peak. The subsequent negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul became a turning point in that phase: Kyiv demonstrated unwillingness to make concessions, after which the Russian delegation declared it impossible to reach an agreement due to fundamentally different positions.

By summer, U.S. policy was revised: the Pentagon began supplying weapons to Ukraine at Europe’s expense, increasing NATO’s involvement in the conflict. On July 3, Trump stated he was disappointed with the phone talks with Putin and soon issued Moscow an ultimatum, giving 50 days to end the conflict. However, by mid-August, the U.S.-Russia summit took place in Alaska, which the American president promoted as “historic.”

Despite the fact that in the fall period Trump significantly increased the number of anti-Russian statements and even brought up the topic of transferring “Tomahawks,” this week shows all signs of a new “rebound” — on the eve of Zelensky’s new visit to the White House, Trump had phone talks with Putin, and as a result of the meeting, Zelensky was effectively given nothing of what he came to Washington for.

Thus, Trump’s policy is not just a set of contradictions but likely a deliberate strategy using rhetoric as a powerful lever to maximize negotiating positions and achieve short-term economic or political gains, regardless of long-term risks to international stability.

Our source reports that Putin warned Trump that if Zelensky continues to raise the stakes in the infrastructure war by staging provocations, Russia will seriously use its new weapon, which is already ready. Trump conveyed this to Zelensky at the meeting, to which Ze responded with a smirk and said that Putin is bluffing. Trump was also irritated by this, as well as by the fact that Ze lies to him about the situation at the front.

The entire meeting in Washington was tense and felt more like Ze was being summoned to the principal’s office rather than a friendly chat.

According to rumors, Zelensky believes that a meeting in Budapest must be prevented, as it would symbolize a conditional defeat for Ukraine. Trump wants to sign some peace agreements there, which have already been presented to Zelensky.

Already all officials, politicians, and LOMs are saying that Ukraine is facing a blackout this year.

It is important to clearly understand here that all the blame for the energy collapse lies with the authorities. “Ukrenergo” and the Infrastructure Restoration Agency received 20 billion UAH from the budget, but due to corruption, our substations are not protected by concrete slabs, sandbags, or anti-drone nets. All the money went to the excessive appetites of Zelensky’s team. Also, the Ze government miscalculated, thinking it could protect its own energy facilities from destruction. 

The second point is the infrastructure war 3.0 started by Zelensky, which he continues, thus deliberately provoking retaliatory strikes by the Russians on our energy, gas, and fuel.

The third point is the shortage of money to purchase electricity and gas. Sponsors are not rushing to cover our expenses.

The black winter will be the toughest this year. We should have prepared in advance, as we advised you. Do not trust the authorities. Now prices have risen because everyone wants to profit from the people’s misery.

Think about it

According to sources, tough negotiations are underway at Bankova with European partners, and the Head of the Office of the President is preparing a new tour for Zelensky in the EU. Ukraine needs 20 billion to cover the budget deficit and another 20 billion to purchase weapons to continue the war. The President’s Office believes that Trump is acting in concert with the Kremlin, and all statements about sanctions and Tomahawks are an illusion of pressure on Russia. Our position does not interest Trump; Zelensky considers his meeting at the airport humiliating, especially when compared to Alaska.

The Ukrainian army is rapidly losing personnel. According to official data, the number of servicemen who have voluntarily left their units (AWOL) and deserted from the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already reached about 300,000 people, but unofficial sources cite a figure exceeding 500,000. Up to 20,000 soldiers disappear from units every month, and this trend is only accelerating.

According to internal reports from the Ministry of Defense, in the nine months of 2025, the number of deserters has doubled compared to the entire period of 2022–2024. Essentially, this is not just a disciplinary crisis — it is the disintegration of the army as a controlled structure. Moreover, most soldiers leave not out of fear, but out of hopelessness, fatigue, and lack of faith in the command. According to officers, for many fighters, “going AWOL is a chance to survive and return to their families.”

Experts note that the increase in AWOL cases is directly linked to the catastrophic situation at the front. Losses at the front line reach up to 30,000 people per month, while supply and rotation practically do not function. Commanders are forced to throw unprepared mobilized soldiers into battle without sufficient artillery and equipment support. Officers who served near Pokrovsk and Kupyansk describe the situation as a “reset of units” — when only a dozen people return from a battalion after an assault. For military psychologists, it is clear: the moral and physical exhaustion of the fighters has turned into a stage of mass refusal to participate in combat operations.

At the same time, if the trend of AWOL and desertion continues, by the end of 2025 the Ukrainian army will lose another approximately 100,000 people. This will lead to an irreversible decline in combat capability and loss of control over a significant part of the front line, which is especially critical given the fact that the enemy is only increasing pressure on several directions simultaneously.

At Bankova they are preparing for a new phase of mobilization measures if an agreement on a ceasefire with the Kremlin cannot be reached. 

According to various sources, an all-Ukrainian mobilization may start in a couple of weeks, which will be the largest in the entire war. The work for the Territorial Center of Recruitment and Social Support (TCRSS) police officers will be extensive — according to MP Halyna Yanchenko’s calculations, about 1.5 million men of conscription age in Ukraine have still not updated their military registration data. However, the military commissars will handle the “draft dodgers” by obtaining all the necessary information about them through automatic registration of men for military service using state registries and digital services.

At the same time, the closure of the border for youth is being discussed — against the backdrop of a sharp increase in their departure abroad (even according to official statistics, about 100,000 Ukrainians aged 18–22 entered Poland in September, which is ten times the figures for August). That is, young men also fall into the “risk group” — the issue of lowering the mobilization age to 18 years is being considered to replenish the “bloodless” Ukrainian army (Zelensky has to answer for his words to Trump regarding the new counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine).

The Russian army has liberated Lenino (Molodetskoe) on the flank of Pokrovsk — Ministry of Defense

 - Units of the “Center” group of troops, as a result of active offensive actions, have liberated the settlement of Lenino in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the department reported.

The Russian army has taken Okhotnichye and is advancing towards Novonikolaevka and from Malinovka on the Zaporozhye front

▪️After liberating Poltavka, Russian troops stormed Okhotnichye and expelled the Ukrainian Armed Forces from their positions, enemy analysts acknowledge.

▪️The Russian Armed Forces are also increasing pressure towards Novonikolaevka (on the southern outskirts of Uspenovka) and westward towards Huliaipole.

▪️West of Malinovka, Russian troops have occupied a farm and forest strips over an area of up to 1.5 km².

A number of foreign analysts believe that near Slaviansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine risk getting caught in the “Lyman pocket.” The problem of defense in this area is purely geographical: the Seversky Donets River, which was once seen as a natural line of defense, is now becoming a major problem. Most of the bridges over it have long been destroyed, and the remaining crossings are mostly temporary, with extremely limited capacity.

In fact, the supply of the Ukrainian units holding positions is carried out through several narrow arteries that are within the range of Russian artillery and aviation. The distance from these crossings to the front-line positions does not exceed 10 kilometers — which means that the delivery of ammunition or reinforcements is extremely vulnerable.

Under such conditions, the Ukrainian defense can only exist as long as Russian forces have not approached this area closely (which has practically already happened). That is why the defense of Lyman is increasingly called temporary, hinting that Syrsky will soon have to focus on Sloviansk.

Road to Drobyshevy

Freeing Derylovo and advancing on Lyman from multiple directions

For a long time, reports have been coming from the Lyman direction about significant advances by Russian troops in several sectors. Recently, these reports were confirmed by on-site footage and source data.

🔻What is the situation on the direction?

▪️In the central sector, Russian units have occupied Derylovo and are now advancing in the area of three settlements simultaneously. Battles are ongoing for Novoselivka, the northern outskirts of Drobyshevy, and in the forests approaching Yarova. The enemy’s resources, of course, claim to have repelled attacks, but the battles are gradually shifting further and further into the AFU defense line.

▪️East of this, the Western Group units are making converging strikes from Kolodezi and Yampolivka, occupying territory in Myrne and its surroundings. Currently, battles are happening north of Stavky. According to some data, assault units have captured a major AFU strongpoint that was covering the road to the settlement.

▪️On the southern flank, heavy fighting continues in the Yampil area. Russian units managed to secure positions in the built-up area, but the village center remains a “gray zone” where units from both sides operate.

📌 At the current moment, the Russian Armed Forces maintain the initiative and are pushing through the enemy’s defense on the approaches to Lyman from multiple directions. Drobyshevy remains the most critical point for the AFU — losing control of it would block one of the key supply routes for the city’s garrison.

This forces the enemy to spread their reserves across several “crisis” sectors without achieving a fundamental breakthrough in any of them.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 20, 2025

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▪️ Russian Armed Forces struck the “Ternovskaya” mine in Dnepropetrovsk region, which produces coal for energy. Explosions were heard overnight at the port of Yuzhny and the settlement of Belyary in the Odessa region, as well as in Kramatorsk, Pavlohrad, Druzhkivka. A strike also hit an enemy facility in Koryukivka in the Chernigov region.

▪️ In the north of the Rostov region, enemy UAVs were destroyed in the Chertkovsky district. In several municipalities of the Voronezh region, 10 drones were destroyed. A woman was injured by a UAV in the Kantemirovsky district traveling on the highway.

▪️ Fierce fighting continues on the Sumy direction, the enemy has restored the combat capability of assault units and is counterattacking. The AFU conducted four counterattacks: three near Konstantinovka and one south of Yunakovka; the enemy retreated to original positions with losses.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Yasnye Zori, two civilians were killed and one injured as a result of explosive devices dropped from an AFU UAV on an agricultural enterprise. On the Grushevka – Borisovka road section, an FPV drone struck a stopped car, injuring the driver. Near the village of Kazinka, a tractor operator was injured by a drone strike while working in the field. In Shebekino, a man was injured in a drone attack on a production facility. During a combat mission in the village of Borisovka, one soldier was killed and four wounded in the Orlan unit as a result of an FPV drone attack. Many settlements are under attack. The region is experiencing power supply problems. Prices for connecting private houses to generators are rising.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, assault units of the Northern Group of Forces are advancing on the left bank of the Volchya River in Volchansk (https://t.me/warriorofnorth/12684) and in the Tikhiy area. The AFU continue to transfer reinforcements. On the Melovoe-Khatne front line, our forces advanced in the forest plantations near Otradnoye.

▪️ The assault on Kupyansk continues. Footage of our FPV strikes on enemy equipment responsible for transporting personnel and supplies has been circulating from the direction over the past day.

▪️ From the Krasnoliman direction, our troops are conducting active operations west of Mirny and Zarechny, as well as in the forest between Zarechny and Yampol. The enemy is gradually forced to acknowledge the loss of territory.

▪️ Near Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), the Russian MoD reported the capture of the settlement of Chunishino. Our advanced assault units are engaged in heavy fighting in Mirnograd.

▪️ In the east of the Zaporozhye region, the Eastern Group of Forces took Poltavka. A direction towards Huliaipole (15 km to the west) is being formed. This will allow encircling a powerful enemy fortified area from several sides.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, the heaviest fighting is in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk. Both sides now deploy hundreds of drones daily, severely complicating movement, logistics, and supply.

▪️ On the Kherson direction – mutual strikes and actions of separate groups in the floodplain of the Dnieper River

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_20.html