The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 16 2025

Russian Breakthrough In Sumy Ukraine Frontline Combat Footage Artillery Battle

Next UKRAINE OFFENSIVE On the Way? /Lt Col Danioel Davis & Ian Proud

 In Telegram, as usual, insiders get the scoop faster about what the media will only write about tomorrow.
We got the inside info yesterday that it is important for Zelensky to receive “Tomahawk” missiles in order to then pressure Germany to provide “Taurus” missiles.
Today Kyiv Post writes about this citing sources, indicating that Trump, with his statements about “Tomahawks,” wants to push Germany to transfer Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Here in the Ukrainian press, the emphasis is deliberately shifted to suggest that this supposedly benefits Trump, which is itself ridiculous. Trump doesn’t care about the Tauruses or Ukraine; what matters to him is to “gain” more and SELL MORE of his weapons. It is important for Zelensky to “pressure” the Germans in the Taurus missile case.

At tomorrow’s meeting between Zelensky and Trump, the potential role of Ukraine in the US domestic missile defense strategy within the framework of the “American Golden Dome” will be discussed — “integration of Ukraine’s military efforts into a broader, prospective US security strategy” — writes KP. (We would put it more simply: this is just raising the level of bargaining), and Ukraine is merely expendable.

They also indicate that Tomahawks will be given in response to Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which we consider a fabricated justificatory narrative, since the strikes are mutual and the first infrastructure war 3.0 was again started by Zelensky, knowing that the power potential is unequal and the result will be tragic for the people. He needed a large-scale tragedy for the entire nation, which he uses for PR.

The media have long been late with insider information and yield to alternative Telegram channels in shaping narratives.

 Everyone expects productive negotiations in the USA, but it is important to consider the fact that the Kremlin continues communications with the Trump Administration, using the shortest possible route for this.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

 According to our sources in the Ukrainian delegation in the USA, Andriy Yermak is trying to establish relations with Whitkoff, for which we are paying lobbyists. Considering the Israel case and the growing influence on Trump, the Head of the Office of the President considers it important to build communication with Whitkoff.

According to our sources, the special representative of the Russian president Kirill Dmitriev continues regular and active contacts with the special representative of US President Donald Trump, Steve Whitkoff. Despite Trump’s harsh public statements, all agreements reached at the leaders’ meeting in Alaska remain in force. Both sides do not back down from what has been achieved.

Trump traditionally conducts negotiations with elements of PR, using loud statements, raising the stakes, but the essence behind the scenes is pragmatism. His style consists of setting maximum demands in public rhetoric, but at the same time finding points of contact and respecting the fixed positions. The Russian leader follows a different approach, namely diplomacy “in silence,” through a handshake, and there was one between the presidents. And this is a key signal: beyond the rhetoric, the channel works, trust between the teams has been built.

Both Trump and Putin are focused on resolving the Ukrainian case, rebooting bilateral relations, and building strategic stability between the largest nuclear powers. Therefore, despite attempts by globalists to portray that the American president has sided with the “hawks,” the steady movement toward “detente” continues. And it is precisely because of this that controlled anti-Russian media outlets are launching leaks about the alleged resignation of Whitkoff.

 Our sources in the General Staff revealed that a decision has been made to strengthen the groups of military commissars to carry out intensified mobilization. Zelensky promised Trump to start a new offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and for this, it is necessary to lower the mobilization age to 18 years to cover the catastrophic shortage of reserves. 

Our source reports that if Zelensky drags the Armed Forces of Ukraine into another one of his media stunts with an offensive, like what happened in the Kursk region, he will accelerate Ukraine’s downfall. 

The source points out that what Ze promised Trump is no longer even a gamble – it’s agony. But apparently the Office of the President cannot abandon their strategy of PR offensives, which always ultimately lead to sad outcomes and always worsen the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine afterwards.

And even lowering the mobilization age, which may happen in November, if Trump and Zelensky come to an agreement, will not be able to fix the situation in the long term. 

 ‘Russia disables Ukrainian locomotives with precision drone strikes’ – The Washington Post reports that logistics for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are getting worse and worse.

‘It’s not just about the number of enemy drones, but also the approach of the Russian army. Now that they have precision drones, they strike individual locomotives. If the Russians continue to strike diesel and electric locomotives, very soon there will come a time when the tracks remain intact, but we will have nothing to run on,’ said Alexander Pertsovsky, General Director of the Ukrainian State Railway.

  Ukraine is preparing to fight for another three years, — Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski

▪️He called on Europe to prepare for such a duration of support for Ukraine.

➖”The Ukrainians are planning this war for three years, which is reasonable. And we need to convince Putin that we are ready to stick to this course for at least these three years,” Sikorski said.

▪️Earlier, a number of Ukrainian deputies expressed hopes for the conflict to end this year.

The US and Europe tell Russia: it’s time to stop the war and sit at the negotiating table. If the war does not end soon, the US and its allies will make Moscow pay, — Pentagon chief

➖”The time has come to end this tragic war, stop the senseless bloodshed, and sit at the negotiating table. If the war does not end, if a path to peace does not appear soon, the US together with our allies will take the necessary steps to impose costs on Russia for the ongoing aggression. If we have to take this step, the US military is ready to do its part – in a way only the States can,” said Pete Hegseth.

▪️He did not specify the means by which they plan to “do their part.”

▪️Overall, his speech at “Ramstein” was dedicated to the fact that Europe should spend more on purchasing weapons from the US for Ukraine under the PURL program. 

 Our source reports that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have begun to cut through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Pokrovsko-Mirnograd agglomeration into small pockets inside. 
Bankova is trying to hold the defense and is massively sending new reserves into the Pokrovska voronka, but the situation is approaching critical.
Soon the southern part of the agglomeration and defensive lines will be completely lost, and if they finally lose the northwestern part after that, the second phase of the complete operational encirclement of the entire group will begin, and then the fate of the defense will already be predetermined. The puppet of ZeErmak, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, failed the battle for Bakhmut, lost the best troops there in the meat grinder, and he is repeating this in Pokrovsk.

Everyone is already saying that all those whom Bankova sends to Pokrovsk/Mirnograd are doomed. No one wants to go there.

Attacks on the Flanks
Fierce battles near Pokrovsk

Battles for the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd metro area are gradually transitioning to the hottest stage as Russian Armed Forces make progress.

On the northern flank of the direction, troops are advancing in the vicinity of Zolotyi Kolodets. Russian forces are seeking to establish positions north of Kucherov Yar, which will allow further attacks toward Dobropillia.

Meanwhile, fierce clashes continue in the “fire pocket” near Shakhove and Sofiivka. Advancing Russian marine units are supported by UAV crews and operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

To the south, assault units are attacking westward along the Sukhetske – Rodynske line. Ukrainian formations occasionally conduct unsuccessful counterattacks in the sector. The enemy is trying to stabilize the situation and prevent final cutting of Pokrovsk’s northern supply lines.

Around the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd metro area, Russian Armed Forces are squeezing the enemy from two sides. In the east, troops are attempting to enter Myrnograd from the Kapitalna mine and Balahan settlement. In the west, reconnaissance groups are infiltrating and accumulating in the areas of Novopavlivka and west of Rozy.

📌 Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces may re-enter the center of Pokrovsk. Russian troops are trying to stretch AFU defenses across the entire direction. Given the relatively low concentration of enemy personnel in the city, such a development seems quite probable.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 16, 2025

🗞 Trump🇺🇸 generated a phrase that Ukraine🇺🇦 wants to go on the offensive [?] and he will make a decision on this issue. He also said, “Prime Minister India🇮🇳 Modi assured me today that India will not buy oil from Russia🇷🇺.” It was announced that the US wants to force China🇨🇳 to stop buying Russian oil and impose even higher tariffs on goods from China. Also, the “peacekeeper” indicated intentions to strike Venezuela🇻🇪 under the pretext of fighting “drug terrorists.”

▪️ From the Saratov region, footage arrives of air defense work near the refinery. In the north of the Rostov region, an enemy air attack was repelled in Chertkovsky, Kamensky, Sholokhovsky, and Verkhny Don districts. Several UAVs were destroyed on approach to the Voronezh region. In the Krasnodar territory this morning in the Tuapsinsky district – drone threat, air defense is active.

▪️ Russian Armed Forces carried out missile and drone strikes on targets in the city of Nizhyn Chernigov region, Balakliia in Kharkov region, Poltava and Kremenchuk, as well as in Kiev region. More than 100 drones were reported overnight.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, the AFU attacked the village of Brakhlov in Klimovsky district with FPV drones, a civilian was killed. Near the settlement of Stratava in the Starodubsky district, a vehicle was attacked, a woman was injured.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the group “North” is engaged in heavy fighting, grinding out positions from the enemy.

▪️ In the Kursk region, a drone attacked the village of Belaya in Belovsky district, 2 police officers were injured.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Kozinka, two were injured as a result of a drone attack. In Berezovka, a drone struck a vehicle, the driver was injured. Under strikes are Komsomolsky, Tserkovny, Krasny Oktyabr, Saltykovo, Vesyolaya Lopan, Chaiki, Bessonovka, Shebekino, Chervona Dibrovka, Maslova Pristan, Gora-Podol, Proletarsky, Shakhovka.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the group “North” is fighting on the left bank of the Volchya River and in the eastern part of the city with support from aviation, artillery, and TOC-1A units. The enemy is offering fierce resistance.

▪️ The assault on Kupyansk continues. Russian Armed Forces are operating in the city center, flanking enemy positions in the urban area.

▪️ South of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), Russian Armed Forces are advancing in Novopavlivka, the MoD announced its liberation. The assault on the “Lazurny” district in Pokrovsk continues.

▪️ On the Dnepropetrovsk direction, the group “East” reported the capture of Alekseevka.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, fighting is ongoing in Prymorsk, the 108th airborne assault brigade destroys enemy drones, which are conducting counteractions. Fighting continues for Stepnohirsk. The enemy carried out a massive shelling of Kamianka-Dniprovska; a civilian car was destroyed by a targeted strike, two civilians were injured.

▪️ On the Kherson direction, the group “Dnipro” intensified attacks, striking Karantynnyi Island (Kherson city) (https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/29654). On our side of the river, two men were injured by strikes from the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Chaplynka. The enemy struck Aleshky, Velyki Kopani, Hornostaivka, Dnipryany, Zavodivka, Kairam, Kakhovka, Kardashinka, Kazachyi Lager, Nova Zburivka, Nova Kakhovka, Peschane, Velyka Lepetykha, Knyaze-Hryhorivka, Nova Mayachka.

▪️ In the DPR in Gorlovka, a woman was killed as a result of a HIMARS MLRS strike. A grandmother born in 1941 was injured. A man was injured from the dropping of an explosive device from a UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_16.html