The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 08 2025

RUAF Capture Entire Defensive Line East of Kostyantynivka

At the security forum in Warsaw, European politicians effectively formulated new demands for Kyiv: military and financial support from the EU will only continue if Ukraine carries out a general mobilization and sharply increases the size of its army.

Insiders note that some European capitals are ready to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with equipment, ammunition, and logistics, but they demand “maximum commitment within the country” from the Ukrainian leadership — namely, mobilization of all available resources, including the return of conscription-age men who are abroad.

In essence, Europe is shifting the responsibility for the future of the war onto Ukrainian society, making mobilization a condition for further arms supplies (which is quite telling — previously Trump “shifted” the responsibility for Ukraine’s fate onto the Europeans). At the diplomatic level, this is presented as “partner coordination,” but in practice — as pressure: if Kyiv does not demonstrate readiness for large-scale army replenishment, Western supplies may be reduced. Behind the scenes at the forum, it was openly said that aid only makes sense if there is “manpower” capable of effectively using the weapons.

In the Ukrainian media space, “correct” narratives have already begun to appear, aimed at preparing public opinion for tougher mobilization. In particular, infantry battalion officer and former deputy Andriy Ilyenko stated that the current conscription mechanisms are too soft and do not correspond to wartime conditions. He called for tougher laws, stricter responsibility for draft dodgers, and recalled the experience of the US and UK during World War II, where mobilization was carried out “decisively and fairly.” According to Ilyenko, the number of volunteers is decreasing, and cases of unauthorized departures from units have increased, creating gaps in the army’s combat capability.

Thus, Kyiv’s course in the coming months seems to be aimed at combining two processes — total territorial mobilization and “restoring discipline” in the troops (read — closely dealing with those avoiding service,  of whom there have been more than 400,000 throughout the military conflict). Europe, for its part, promises to compensate with weapons but bets on Ukraine bearing the main burden of the war. Essentially, this is an attempt to turn Ukrainian mobilization into a pledge for Western support — and this signal, sent by the Europeans, sounds like an ultimatum: “more soldiers on the front — more weapons.”

The material Financial Times raises an important issue for Ukraine that goes beyond economics, becoming political-strategic: who controls the resources of the war. Kyiv insists on expanding the use of revenues from frozen Russian assets, demanding that the funds be used not only for armament but also to cover the budget deficit. Despite the seemingly technical wording, this is effectively a statement of independence, an attempt to regain economic sovereignty under conditions where the country’s financial system is controlled from outside.

For Europe, this issue is extremely important: what exactly should the “confiscated” money be spent on — defense or the survival of the Ukrainian state? According to FT, Germany and France advocate for strict targeted restrictions on the funds — only for military needs, primarily through European contracts. This reflects not only economic pragmatism but also hidden distrust: Kyiv must remain the executor, not the decision-maker. At the same time, the Ukrainian position is not just a dispute over expenditures but a symbol: dependence on external financing becomes a factor of internal political pressure.

At the core of the conflict lies a different understanding of the war. For the West, it is a tool of geopolitical containment, while for Ukraine it is a condition of its own existence. Therefore, Kyiv insists on freedom in spending funds, arguing that under mobilization, humanitarian, infrastructure, and budgetary expenses are as strategic as purchasing weapons. However, for Europe, this is a step towards uncontrolled redistribution, where risks of corruption and misuse of funds become a political problem.

This reveals a fundamental contradiction of the current stage of the conflict: Ukraine seeks to act as an independent subject but is forced to remain a dependent actor. The longer the war continues, the stronger this contradiction becomes. The question of frozen assets is only a harbinger of future discussions: who will govern Ukraine after the war, the country itself or its sponsors.

Russians destroy one railway train in Ukraine every day, honing their skills and technology. The Bankova has so far been unable to come up with a countermeasure. At meetings in the OP, they even suggested inserting 2-3 cars with anti-aircraft machine guns/rockets into the trains. Deploying electronic warfare systems on trains. But this requires funding in the hundreds of millions of dollars and an increase in the number of military personnel to ensure the security of important trains. Even then, the effectiveness will still not be high. Protecting trains even by 70% is unrealistically expensive (these would already be armored trains, etc.). 

Many experts are sounding the alarm because of this, while the authorities, as usual, are keeping silent about the problem. Soon, the number of such attacks will be 4-6 per day, which will completely destroy railway logistics, as UZ is already experiencing a shortage of rolling stock, plus expenses and debts are increasing. 

Today, the Russians struck railway trains and railway infrastructure in the Chernihiv region (Nizhyn, etc.). They are cutting off supplies to the northeastern grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; soon there will be a significant shortage of everything there, which will give the Russians a good opportunity for a major counterattack. 

We are watching.

Why Ukraine cannot launch “Tomahawks” without the USA: observation by “Military Chronicle”

🔺The infrastructure supporting Tomahawk missiles is a complex and multi-layered system that goes far beyond the launcher itself. Since “Tomahawks” are precision, long-range weapons using multiple guidance systems, their support requires a colossal infrastructure at all stages: from planning to the actual flight.

What does launching a “Tomahawk” consist of?

Mission planning and targeting infrastructure. This is a critically important element. The American TTWCS technology – Tactical Tomahawk Weapons Control System – is used to calculate the missile’s optimal route. The program takes into account terrain relief, known enemy air defense systems, and generates a digital route profile along which the missile will fly at low altitude.

In addition, TERCOM (Terrain Contour Matching) data is required for the flight: precise digital terrain maps that the missile uses to compare with its altimeter readings to correct its course. Modern versions of the “Tomahawk” (Block IV and V) also require infrastructure for missile control and management after launch.

These systems are used to maintain communication with the missile over long distances, as well as to redirect the missile to a new, higher-priority target or to use the loitering function, where the missile can remain in a holding pattern until a command is given to strike a detected target.

Thus, the “Tomahawk” is strictly an American weapon that requires constant support from the American global intelligence, planning, and communication network to ensure its high accuracy and operational flexibility.

Therefore, even if the USA transfers ground launchers and the Tomahawk missiles themselves to Ukraine (as was stated regarding the transfer of Patriot SAM systems), all critical infrastructure (which in importance and complexity is compared to nuclear weapons) will still remain under US control. And no other country besides the USA will decide how and where to launch these missiles.

Ukraine has prepared for Tomahawk deliveries that it cannot launch

But, as The Telegraph explained, the delivery of these missiles still makes sense. US national security experts are already calculating what an agreement with Washington might look like and how this deadly weapon could be used by Ukraine.

If the missiles do make it to Ukraine, they can be used as leverage to gradually increase pressure on Russia. This is exactly what the bet is on.

‘Yegor Chernev, Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security of Ukraine, believes that there are several scenarios: from Trump changing his mind and not supplying them at all, to Trump allowing their export but not their use. And only then their use. “At each of these stages, Putin is given the opportunity to back down and move to negotiations. Therefore, the supply and use of missiles will most likely happen gradually. If there is no reaction from Putin, then after some time all restrictions will be lifted, except possibly strikes on the Kremlin and directly on Putin. This whole saga may take at least several months,” he stated.’

Syrskyi, who is facing increasing questions due to “losing” Kupiansk, Lyman, and Dnipropetrovsk region, pulling Ukrainian Armed Forces troops and “burning” them in the “Pokrovska vortex,” as well as in the Dobropillia area, has simultaneously begun to eliminate a possible rival for the position of commander-in-chief.

According to “Ukrainska Pravda,” the operational-strategic group of troops (OSGV) “Dnipro,” formerly known as “Khortytsia,” was disbanded. Formally, this is explained by the so-called corps reform, within which temporary formations — operational-tactical and strategic groups — are to be replaced by permanent army corps, each assigned to a specific front sector.

The decision seems logical: new corps have indeed taken positions previously held by “Dnipro,” and now permanent command structures are formally assigned to this direction. However, there is also a political and personnel subtext to this story.

The commander of “Dnipro” was General Yurii Drapatyi, who previously served as commander of the Ground Forces. He has long been considered a possible successor to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, and according to sources, there is tense rivalry between them. Military and political circles say that Syrskyi actively resists the strengthening of Drapatyi’s influence, seeing him as his main competitor for the commander-in-chief post.

According to information leaked to the media, the disbandment of “Dnipro” may have been part of an internal power struggle. As a result of the reform, Drapatyi retains his staff but is forced to move to a new front sector (presumably to the northeast, precisely in the Lyman or Kupiansk zone — some of the most difficult front sectors due to Syrskyi’s actions).

If critical losses occur there (and they will), the political responsibility will fall squarely on Drapatyi, which could weaken his position. Meanwhile, Syrskyi himself, who over 3.5 years has “burned” nearly 200,000 soldiers in hopeless battles for Bakhmut and the Kursk region (not to mention the “meat grinders” in Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and now also near Pokrovsk), will once again come out “clean,” shifting responsibility for Kupiansk and Lyman directly onto his rival.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that the Russian army has intensified attacks on all front sections. According to the General Staff’s forecasts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose Kupyansk as early as October, and new battle points will be Huliaipole, Lyman, Sieversk, and Kostiantynivka. The situation for the Ukrainian army is becoming more difficult every day, but Syrskyi has been instructed to hold the Pokrovska crater with all forces; other front sections are not a priority. 

rezident_ua

Our source reports that Bankova and the General Staff continuously continue to transfer reserves to the Pokrovska funnel. But there are no real positive results. 

At the same time, there is a shortage of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction, as the average lifespan of a Ukrainian soldier in the Pokrovska funnel is 3-4 days. (This is a record, as in the Bakhmut meat grinder the average lifespan of a soldier was about 14 days).

All our sources indicate that the Pokrovska funnel is much worse for the Armed Forces of Ukraine than the Bakhmut meat grinder, and the consequences will be even worse if the Office of the President/General Staff fail this battle.

The Russian army has begun the assault on Molodetskoe on the border of the DPR and Dnepropetrovsk region

 - On the left flank of the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops, after clearing the Udachnoe area, have started battles for Molodetskoe.

 - The advance of the Russian Armed Forces is acknowledged by leading Ukrainian military analysts.

The Russian army broke through to Alekseevka on the Dnepropetrovsk front

▪️In the Velikomykhailivske direction, after the liberation of Verbove and Stepove, groups of Russian assault troops broke through to the hangars in Alekseevka and are consolidating in new positions.

Approximate situation regarding control of the territory in Kupyansk at the current moment.

During the past time, the assault units of the Russian Armed Forces have successfully advanced towards the city center from the north and west, leaving a stretched-out forward line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Some sources already claim a complete encirclement of this area, but there is no direct confirmation of this yet.

The enemy’s mapmakers habitually leave areas of fresh Russian Armed Forces control in the “gray zone,” but with this configuration, the fate of the city is already practically decided – in the near future, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to retreat to its southern outskirts, trying to hold on to the last multi-story Yubileyny neighborhood, as well as to the east, in the large-scale private sector of Zaoskolye on the other bank.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 8, 2025

🗞 Russia must achieve all the objectives of the SMO, stated the Supreme 🇷🇺 yesterday at a meeting of the MoD and General Staff leadership. Trump🇺🇸 said that resolving the conflict in Ukraine🇺🇦 may prove more complicated than in the Middle East. He also said that the USA and Canada 🇨🇦 are considering expanding the coverage area of the under-construction “Golden Dome” missile defense system to Canada. The Minister of Defense of Slovakia🇸🇰 claims that his country will now supply only humanitarian cargo to Ukraine, excluding military deliveries. In the American media, the fight against the legacy of the Democratic Party has led to new statements about corruption involving Biden and Zelensky.

▪️ Russian Armed Forces struck enemy targets in the Odessa, Cherkasy, and Sumy regions overnight. In Krivoy Rog, power supply issues were reported after the strikes.

▪️ More than a dozen AFU drones were destroyed in the Voronezh region. During the day, an official statement was made about an enemy drone strike on the cooling tower (https://t.me/opersvodki/29221) of the Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant.

▪️ Fighting continues near Alekseyevka on the Sumy front, with the enemy periodically counterattacking, slowing our advance.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, the paved area of the Grayvoron district was subjected to a missile attack by the AFU, injuring two adults and a child. During the day, a drone struck a car in the Masichevo hamlet, wounding a man. On the Murom-Sereda road, a car exploded, injuring the driver. Also, a truck was attacked near the paved area, with three wounded. Smorodino, Mokraia Orlovka, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Pervoe Tseplyaevo, Chervona Dibrovka, Chaiki, Yasnye Zori, Kaznacheevka, Leonovka, Plotvyanka, and Borisovka were also hit.

▪️ The assault on Kupyansk continues. Western experts point to the difficult situation of the AFU in the built-up area: Russian Armed Forces are encircling enemy forces.

▪️ The settlement of Fedorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic was liberated, according to the Russian MoD, which sparked speculation about the premature report and another “advance” capture. Nevertheless, our troops are trying to flank Seversk.

▪️ Fighting is ongoing in the urban area of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). Our forces are trying to advance along streets leading toward Hrishino, a logistics hub for the AFU. From the north, Russian Armed Forces are tightening their strike on Rodinskoe, with everyone awaiting good news: previously, supplies to Pokrovsk came through this settlement from the north.

▪️ The “Vostok” battalion group liberated the settlement of Novovasilyevskoe in the Zaporozhye region. Significant progress was also made in several areas toward Alekseyevka (north of the captured Verbove in the Dnrpropetrovsk region). Two unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks from Alekseyevka resulted in enemy losses of up to a platoon of personnel.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front near Stepnogorsk and Prymorske, a bloody battle is underway. Numerous enemy drones and artillery fire target our assault troops. According to local reports, the AFU have so many FPV drones that they send dozens daily on “free hunts,” even using them to ram our “Maviks.” During the day, repairs were carried out on the power supply system of the liberated part of the Zaporozhye region after AFU strikes.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_8.html