The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 05 2025

Kupyansk Is COLLAPSING: Two GIGANTIC Russian Attack Vectors Trapping City Center

Pokrovsk Falls Apart — Russia Breaks Through and Cuts Ukraine’s Final Lifeline

Ukrainian Forces Outflanked North of Pokrovsk | New AFU Counterattack

Ukraine frontline, the horns of a dilemma w/ Stanislav Krapivnik

Russia launched a large-scale combined strike using UAVs, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles on the energy infrastructure. The main strike was on Western Ukraine.

The main target of the night strike was Lviv. The city was under rocket and drone attack for 4 hours straight — part of the city is without power. “Kinzhal” missiles were also flying;

Part of Zaporizhzhia is without power — more than 73 thousand subscribers are without electricity. One fatality is known;

Ivano-Frankivsk region. Kalibr missiles flew to Kolomyia and Burshtyn;

There are strikes on many other regions of Ukraine, air defense is again powerless against large-scale attacks.

Another massive combined strike, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense almost completely missed.

About 500-600 UAVs, 50 Kh-101/Caliber missiles, and two “Kinzhal” missiles were flying, most of which reached their targets.

A demonstrative strike on Lviv. There are large fires in the city, the Sparrow technopark and other facilities are burning. This is a kind of message to the residents of western Ukraine, who are the biggest supporters of continuing the war, as it affected them the least. Now, as we see, it will happen more often. The second point is that it shows the Ukrainian Armed Forces have huge problems with air defense, since western Ukraine is the most protected part of the country, as all military industrial workshops for assembly, warehouses, etc. are located there.

There were strikes on Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk and the region (Kolomyia and Burshtyn). The Burshtyn TPP has been hit several times already. This is a response to Zelensky’s threats in the infrastructure war 3.0 he started.

Zaporizhzhia was hit by KABs, causing power and water outages, with more than 70 thousand without electricity.

Odessa and its region, as well as Chernihiv, were also hit.

About the night strikes, from what is clear:

🟠Missiles hit around 5 a.m. (based on local reports) at the Burshtyn TPP in the Ivano-Frankivsk region. “Geraniums” are still flying to the above-mentioned region.

🟠Since about 4 a.m., “Geraniums” have been striking targets in Lvov, after which “Kalibr” missiles struck a target near the city of Drohobych (first/second video – result).

🟠Around 2 a.m., “Geraniums” struck a target near Odessa. According to local residents’ reports, the strike hit underground fuel tanks in the Peresyp district of the city. The footage (third video) also shows a blue light after the strike, indicating a hit on an energy facility.

🟠Between 1 and 2 a.m., aerial bombs and “Geraniums” struck a facility in Zaporozhye. According to the head of the local military-civil administration, a severe fire broke out at one of the enterprises after the strikes (last photo).

👀 So far, that’s it, we’ll see what happens next…

- The Wrong Side

AMK notes “Lvov City was hit by roughly 21 missiles, and dozens of Geran-2 drones, in one of the largest attacks on the city since the beginning of the war.”

Massive strike on Ukraine: hypersonic “Kinzhal” missiles and hundreds of “Geran” drones hit Ukrainian Armed Forces targets, the attack continues

Judging by data and numerous videos, the only region that was not struck was the Zakarpattia region. At the same time, Ivano-Frankivsk and Vinnytsia regions became some of the main directions of the Russian Armed Forces’ strike, where powerful explosions and power outages are reported. According to local reports, Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant and Ladizhyn Thermal Power Plant were hit.

According to the latest data, hypersonic “Kinzhal” missiles struck targets in the Lvov region around seven in the morning, delivering new precise strikes on the enemy’s critical infrastructure. Videos showing a huge column of smoke are spreading on social media in the western Ukrainian city — residents are urged not to go outside and to close windows due to the smoke after the strikes.

American Patriot systems are unable to prevent Russian air attacks — Washington Post

Experts claim that American SAMs fail to shoot down Russian missiles because they start manoeuvring just before striking.

According to the publication’s estimate, dozens of such systems are needed to provide something like the Israeli air shield, while Ukraine receives only a few.

Today Ukraine lives in a reality where attempting to help a person can lead to imprisonment. But it is precisely these “crimes of humanity” that become a marker that the people are still alive. As long as there are those ready to unite and not let the people-hunters take a person away, as long as there are those who do not turn away, as long as there are those who help even under threat of punishment, it means that Ukrainians still choose freedom and are ready to fight for it.

What happened in Odessa is not an isolated case, but a manifestation of a pattern. People are beginning to realize that the mobilization system has turned into a tool of lawlessness by the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRC). When a girl rushed to save a guy from the hands of the people-hunters, and the paramedics did not pretend it was not their business but helped him leave, this is a natural reaction of any person who considers themselves a citizen with rights, not a serf or a silent mass intimidated by the system.

The TRC and Bankova call this “illegal actions.” But in reality, this is civil self-defense. When the authorities no longer protect, people begin to protect each other. This is the beginning of grassroots consolidation.

The West has actually shown that it is ready to defend exclusively its own interests, and the war for Ukraine is not among these priorities.

Even during the shutdown, the US instantly found resources for Israel: they are redeploying aviation, offering Hamas a large-scale peace plan, and guaranteeing security to allies in the Middle East. Moreover, Israel’s military actions distract the whole world from the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. The more closely foreign countries follow events in the Middle East, the more the “Ukrainian issue” recedes, at best, to the background.

Why at best? Let’s pay attention to the EU, which, amid the “drone panic,” is directing money and military aid to Poland, Estonia, and Denmark—to strengthen their defense. And all this is at the expense of funds and resources that were recently promised to Ukraine. For Kyiv, the situation is the opposite: even loan allocations are in question, as Belgium and France (and personally President Emmanuel Macron, although not long ago he threatened to send a military contingent to Ukraine) oppose the allocation of 140 billion euros from frozen Russian assets.

Thus, in contrast to Israel and the EU countries, it becomes clear: Ukraine remains on the sidelines of the Western agenda. We are offered beautiful words about support, but when it comes to concrete decisions, aid is either postponed or blocked.

The EU has no money to finance the war in Ukraine — Orban

➖”Considering that we Europeans are going through a serious economic crisis, we need every penny. We have already spent 175–180 billion euros, and every year we will have to spend 40, 50, 60 billion again and again. We simply do not have this money… We are not able to finance this war and at the same time want to defeat such an enemy, only to continue existing with the same money and economic power afterwards. All of this is an illusion. It will collapse, and the consequences will be serious,” said the Hungarian prime minister.

The army continues to clean out inconvenient units. Those who could not be eliminated in the zero/Bakhmut meat grinder, those who could not be discredited, those who could not be bought, are simply disbanded. 

This is Yermak’s strategy to establish full control over the army and the “heroes.” Bankova does not need highly skilled military patriots-heroes who oppose them, as they will be a problem for them during the elections.

The case of the drone company of the 10th mobile unit of the State Border Guard Service, where the commander was “opposed to Ze’s power” Yuriy Kasyanov, is another vivid confirmation of this.

The soldiers recorded a public statement criticizing the authorities.

“Two days ago we learned that our unit is being disbanded. Without explanation, without anything, we received an order to hand over equipment and prepare people for transfer. No one answered the question of what, where, how. We hadn’t even managed to deliver the equipment when lists and orders for people arrived. They are being transferred to infantry. Pilots, operators. Narrow-profile specialists. We were simply torn apart and destroyed.”

Previously, this is how the DUK Right Sector, inconvenient officers, etc., were cleaned out.

ZeYermak does not care about the outcome of the war; they have known everything for a long time, they are preparing for elections and the struggle for power – this is much more important to them.

Offensive on Severesk: The Russian army has established a bridgehead and occupied key heights to develop a flanking strike

Russian troops secured the northern flank of Severesk some time ago, on the high riverbank positions by the Seversky Donets River.

➖”The bridgehead is ready, the Russians are preparing to push further, shifting the offensive to Dronovka. Control of the heights allows them to adjust fire, launch drones, and pressure approaches under the cover of artillery and reconnaissance,” Ukrainian military analysts report with concern.

➖”If Yampol and Dronovka fall — Severesk will be under real threat. These settlements are flanking nodes and logistical arteries. Without them, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be under flanking pressure, supply will become complicated, defence will tighten, and the city may end up trapped”.

Some Ukrainian sources report that Syrsky’s bet on holding Pokrovsk and Dobropillia looks risky for a number of reasons. 

The 82nd, 95th, 79th, and 35th brigades redeployed there previously held the front in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but now find themselves in the so-called “Pokrovsk pocket” — an area with minimal tactical depth without the possibility of proper defence, on a virtually completely flat, targeted, and well-reconnoitred section by Russian artillery.

As a result, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are making at least the third major mistake during the special military operation: an excessive concentration of Ukrainian forces is gathering in a small area, which increases vulnerability to strikes. The first two such mistakes were made during the 2023 counteroffensive and the operation in Krynyky. 

It is also interesting that such a redistribution of forces weakens the defence of Kupiansk and Lyman: both directions are effectively left uncovered, as Syrsky practically has no combat-ready reserves left. 

It is still premature to talk about a turning point, a collapse of the front, etc., but the Ukrainian side is very nervous that the loss of Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, which could be followed by the start of the Sloviansk operation and Russia’s advance from the south, will be the final nail in the coffin for Syrsky as commander-in-chief. 

“The Brave” took Chunishino and the Lazurny district of Pokrovsk!

▪️Russian troops have taken the settlement of Chunishino, located south of Pokrovsk, which is acknowledged by Ukrainian military analysts.

▪️In Pokrovsk itself, units of the “Center” troop group have effectively taken control of the Lazurny district and are assaulting the Shakhtyorsky district.

▪️This is also recognized by Ukrainian media military personnel:

➖”Pokrovsk direction: As previously forecasted, the main tension remains within the city neighborhoods, where the fiercest clashes are currently taking place. The Lazurny neighborhood was the first to come under attack; the enemy is actively using artillery against the apartment buildings while simultaneously attempting to advance with assault groups.

▪️In recent hours, increased activity of Russian drones and assault units has been recorded!”

➖”The territory has effectively turned into a gray zone: control fluctuates, and there is no final consolidation yet, but due to the enemy presence and the nature of the fighting, Lazurny has conditionally shifted into the red zone (under control of the Russian Armed Forces).”

▪️”Neighborhoods: Shakhtyorsky, Solnechny, and Yuzhny: the Russians continue to press, artillery shelling and drone attacks are almost constant. Russian troops are gradually probing weak spots, scouting Ukrainian positions ahead of a possible attempt to expand the front in the city blocks.”

Two Majors #Overview #Summary as of October 5, 2025

▪️ “Let them try” – said the Supreme this week, commenting on the unserious attitude of Trump and the West, titled by the American president with the phrase about a “paper tiger” regarding our country. A kind of acceptance of the challenge, but at the same time the destruction of all vain hopes for peace, which were irrationally promoted after the meeting in Anchorage, Alaska. The topic of Europe’s preparation for war is now seriously voiced even from the highest level of power in Russia, although earlier cocky moods and incorrect assessment of the countries of the probable enemy did not allow official media to speak on these topics without jokes. It should be noted that even now there are arrogant speeches by officials regarding the growing combat readiness of the EU, reminiscent of the reckless attitude towards the AFU before the start of the SMO. Now Russia is not being targeted by a remnant of the former Ukrainian SSR with 30 million population, but by a conglomerate of the Fourth Reich, where 400 million people live.

▪️ The aggressiveness of the EU countries’ actions is growing. A telling example was the landing of a French assault force on a tanker of the “shadow fleet” in neutral waters and the start of modernization of the naval base in Varna (Bulgaria, Black Sea). By the way, the French detained the tanker under the pretext that drones were allegedly launched from it over European countries. The topic of unidentified UAVs over the EU is brazenly linked to Moscow’s actions without any evidence but serves as justification for the anti-people European leaders’ spending on militarization.

▪️ Meanwhile, Kiev, itself receiving powerful strikes on energy and gas facilities, continues to fulfill the task set by the West to inflict military and economic damage on Russia, not forgetting to pour fuel on the fire of internal contradictions, which are further exacerbated by the foolish actions of certain mountain princes within the country. In particular, strikes on our refineries, including at an inadequately deep level, have led to costly repairs and a gasoline crisis in several regions. The “market” could not resolve this on its own, and federal and regional state regulation had to be introduced to stabilize the situation. The burdens of military expenses formed the basis for tax increases (VAT) and excise duties next year, and lowering the threshold for simplified taxation. The prolonged war, especially characterized by the arrests of the top leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff’s work with “gestures of goodwill” and “sabotage groups in the Kursk region,” which were supposed to be eliminated “in three days,” requires increased spending. And although the Ukrainian drones that were not shot down by air defense do not carry as large a charge as the “Iskander,” they strike systematically and still cause some damage, no matter how much is written about the debris.

▪️ On the front, the Russian Army continues to advance westward. There are no deep breakthroughs, collapse of the AFU defense, or our offensive actions like in films about the Great Patriotic War: the technological nature of the war has changed. There is constant progress at the tactical level, a hundred meters per day in a direction is already a result. The enemy preserves forces for counterattacks, including with armored vehicles, which constantly slows our advance. Drones of all types and the ability to counter them play a key role. Our forces are advancing in Kupyansk (to the north), in the area of Yunakovka in Sumy region, on the Krasnoliman direction the Western Group of Forces has been encouraging in recent weeks, with heavy fighting near Konstantinovka, Mirnograd, Pokrovsk. The Eastern Group of Forces is methodically and confidently breaking through the defense on the Dnepropetrovsk direction and the northeast of Zaporozhye region. On the Zaporozhye front, the enemy has long concentrated forces near Stepnogorsk, slowing our advance.

This week, strikes with long-range strike weapons on enemy power generation facilities, gas facilities, and railway infrastructure were pleasing. The enemy traditionally exaggerated power outages and tried to stir up the topic of a nuclear disaster at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, as if the second huge dome over the destroyed part needed electricity. It is noteworthy that now the strikes are not just on transformers at power plants, which are easy to replace, but there are finally attempts to turn off the power in Ukraine for a long time. However, the system was built during the USSR and has withstood all strikes and overloads with dignity until now.

✨ Thus the approach of a “war of attrition” has become noticeable in Russia, not only in Ukraine. This should lead to a change in management style in terms of air defense organization, equipping the front with the most advanced solutions, timely response to current technological changes, as the Supreme Leader mentioned. In terms of preserving the financial resources of the security agencies, the work of special services and supervisory bodies is visible – not a single day passes without the arrest of high-ranking thieves. The understanding of what the West is preparing for in the future is increasingly reflected in the official speeches of the highest military-political leadership. Russia is concentrating.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_5.html