The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 02 2025

Vladimir Putin speaks at a plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club

Russia’s Biggest Breakthrough Yet – 600 km² Captured, Zelensky in Total Shock!

Putin on attempts to defeat Russia:

You know how much effort our opponents have put in over the past years to, roughly speaking, knock Russia out of the global system, to drive us into political, cultural, informational isolation and economic autarky. In terms of the number and volume of punitive measures imposed on us, which are shamefully called sanctions, Russia is an absolute record holder in world history. Thirty, or maybe even more, various restrictions. So what, have they achieved their goal? I think those present here do not need an explanation that these efforts have completely failed.

Russia has demonstrated the world’s highest degree of resilience, the ability to withstand the strongest external pressure that could break not only a single country but an entire coalition of states. And we naturally feel a rightful pride in this regard. Pride in Russia, in our citizens, and in our armed forces.

Putin on how the West creates an enemy out of Russia:

Moreover, they recreate the familiar enemy, Russia, which was invented centuries ago. Most people in Europe cannot understand why Russia is so frightening to them that to oppose it they need to tighten their belts even more, forget about their own interests, simply give them up, and pursue a policy clearly to their own detriment. But the ruling elites of united Europe continue to fuel the hysteria.

It turns out that war with the Russians is almost at the doorstep. They repeat this nonsense, this mantra over and over again. I watch, and honestly, I tell you, I sometimes see what they say there. I think, but they can’t really believe it. They can’t believe what they say. That Russia is going to attack NATO. But it’s impossible to believe. Yet they convince their own people.

So, what kind of people are these? They are either very incompetent if they really believe it, so it’s impossible to believe this nonsense, or simply dishonest because they themselves don’t believe it but try to convince their citizens of it. Well, what other options are there? Honestly, I just want to say, calm down, sleep peacefully, and finally deal with your own problems.

Putin on some countries using the tragedy in Ukraine for their own selfish purposes:

For other countries, for them this situation, in this case in Ukraine, is a card in another, much larger game, and in their own game at that. And, as a rule, it is not even related to the specific problems of countries in general, in this case this particular country and the countries involved in the conflict. This is only a pretext and a way to solve their geopolitical tasks, expand the zone of control, and make a little money from the war.

That’s why they were pushing NATO infrastructure onto our doorstep. For years they have looked on indifferently at the tragedy of Donbass, at the genocide, essentially, and the destruction of Russian people on our own ancestral historical territories, which began in 2014 after the bloody state coup in Ukraine. The actions of the world majority contrast with such behavior demonstrated by Europe and, until recently, the United States under the previous administration.

They refuse to take anyone’s side, striving to genuinely help establish a just peace. We are grateful to all the states that in recent years have sincerely made efforts to find a way out of the situation. These are our founding BRICS partners – China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Belarus, and, by the way, North Korea, our friends in the Arab and Islamic world as a whole, primarily Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia in Europe, and many other African and Latin American countries.

And so far, unfortunately, it has not been possible to stop the hostilities, but the responsibility for this does not lie with the majority for the failure to stop them, but with the minority, primarily with Europe, which constantly escalates the conflict. In my opinion, no other goal is visible today.

Putin on the fact that it is not so easy to defeat the “Paper Tiger”:

I don’t know in what context this was said, maybe it was said ironically. He said to his interlocutor, well, this is a paper tiger, and then something might follow: Well, then go and deal with this paper tiger. But there, you see, everything happens differently.

Because what is the problem today? Weapons are supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine sufficiently, as much as needed, they supply as much as needed. And our troops advance every day, you understand, the point is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have time to consolidate, and they do not have time to prepare personnel. And losses are greater than the ability to replenish personnel on the battlefield, that’s the point. Therefore, it would be better for the Kiev leadership to think about how to negotiate. We have talked about this many times and offered to do so.

Putin: 

Many do not like the very fact of Russia’s existence. And everyone wants to somehow take part in this historic event — dealing us a strategic defeat. And profit from it. Bite off a piece here, a piece there. They want to make such a striking gesture, but here I will give a lot.

This will not happen!

Putin: 

No matter what potential an individual country or group of countries accumulates, every power still has its limits. The Russian audience knows the saying, “there is no way to break a crowbar except with another crowbar.” And it always appears. This is the essence of the events happening in the world. Always!

Putin on the West’s refusal to cooperate with Russia:

And both times we were effectively refused outright. I repeat, we were ready for joint work, for nonlinear steps in the field of security and global stability.

But our Western colleagues turned out to be unready to free themselves from the captivity of geopolitical and historical stereotypes, from a simplified schematic worldview.

I also spoke publicly when we talked with Mr. Clinton, with President Clinton. He said, “You know, interestingly, I think it’s possible.” But then in the evening he said, “I consulted with my people, it’s unrealistic.” Now it’s unrealistic, but when will it be realistic? It’s all gone.

Zelensky in Copenhagen – warns the EU about Russia’s desire to “boldly break the West”:

Recent drone incidents across Europe are a sign that Russia feels bold enough to further escalate this war. And it was never just about Ukraine. Russia has always sought to break the West, especially Europe. Today their strategy is simple: to divide Europe, ignite disputes, and prevent us from finding a common position.

I believe that, contrary to Russia’s expectations, we must act together and act from a position of strength.

If the Russians dare to launch drones against Poland or violate the airspace of northern European countries, it means that such things can happen anywhere — in Western Europe and in the south. We need a quick and effective response, we need defense forces capable of dealing with the drone threat.

The Tragedy of Empire: From Virgil to Ukraine

Virgil, writing two thousand years ago, gave us a blueprint not only for Rome’s imperial grandeur but also for its hidden sorrow. In The Aeneid, amid the smoke of Troy and the birth of Rome, he dared to pause. He gave names to the nameless, voices to the voiceless, the expendable soldiers whose blood watered the soil of destiny. Unlike Homer, who reveled in the clash of heroes, Virgil broke rank: he showed us the cannon fodder, young men dragged into wars they did not choose, who died not for love or justice but for the cold arithmetic of empire.

This double vision:  glory for Rome, sorrow for the fallen, remains the eternal paradox of empire. Augustus demanded propaganda, and Virgil delivered. But between the lines, we see hesitation, almost pity. Dido’s despair, the deaths of anonymous soldiers, the human wreckage left behind: these are Virgil’s whispered dissent. The poet knew what Augustus did not want to admit, that empire feeds on sacrifice, and its banquet is never paid for by the emperors but by those pressed into service.

Fast forward two millennia. Once again, the imperial script plays out. Washington, London, and Brussels, intoxicated by their own myths, use Ukraine as the tip of their spear. Kiev is told it is “defending democracy,” but in reality, Ukraine is made into Virgil’s cannon fodder: lives thrown into a grinder, not to preserve their nation, but to serve the West’s fading empire. The names change, the costumes are modern, but the function remains the same: to bleed for someone else’s destiny.

Just as Virgil traced the sorrow behind conquest, we see the tragedy today in endless casualty lists. A generation of Ukrainians, taught to believe in a false manifest destiny aligned with NATO, are swallowed by a war they could never win. The West does not mourn them, just as Augustus did not mourn the nameless Trojans cut down on Rome’s road to glory. Instead, they are elevated as abstractions: “heroes,” “martyrs,” “defenders.” But the reality is simpler, crueler: they are cannon fodder, drafted into empire’s script, their humanity erased in favor of propaganda.

Virgil’s genius was to see both sides. The Aeneid glorifies Rome’s mission, yet anticipates its moral collapse. So too today, we are witnessing the West’s propaganda of “values,” but behind it is rot. This empire that pretends to offer civilization delivers only chaos, debt, and proxy wars. Just as Carthage fell to Rome’s ambition, Ukraine is consumed by Washington’s hubris. And just as Dido’s death symbolized the collateral damage of conquest, Ukraine’s tragedy is not noble, merely sacrificial, not born of destiny but enforced by empire.

The metaphysics of war and the endgame of empire converge here: the West reveals itself as Augustus’ heir, demanding glory while hiding decay. Russia, in contrast, embodies Virgil’s deeper insight: that civilization must be rooted in something greater than conquest. That war cannot endlessly consume the future without tearing apart the very soil it claims to sanctify. Moscow refuses to let itself be reduced to cannon fodder in someone else’s playbook.

The Greeks and Romans taught us empires rise and fall in cycles, each blinded by its own arrogance. Virgil’s ambivalence was prophetic: every empire that ignores the humanity of its cannon fodder digs its own grave. Today, it is not Russia that writes tragedy, it is the West, discarding Ukrainian lives in a futile bid to reassert hegemony. Virgil would recognize it instantly. 

The tragedy of empire is eternal: the empire lives by demanding others die. Virgil, the reluctant prophet of cannon fodder, foresaw it. The void of conquest lies bare, its theater exposed as spectacle. And in Ukraine, the curtain falls: the West’s “manifest destiny” becomes its funeral dirge. For empires do not fall because they are defeated by enemies, they fall because they devour their own children.

– Gerry Nolan

The US to provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia — Wall Street Journal

 - “Trump recently signed authorization for intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to assist Kiev in carrying out such strikes,” the publication writes.

 - At the same time, American officials are “waiting for written instructions from the White House before passing on the necessary information.”

 - Previously, Ukraine was required to coordinate with the Pentagon every use of ATACMS missiles on Russian territory.

 - “This veto mechanism has prevented Kiev from launching ATACMS on Russian territory since late spring. At least once, Ukraine requested permission to use missiles against a target in Russia but was denied,” the newspaper writes.

 - The Trump administration is also considering providing Kiev with “Tomahawks,” “Barracudas,” and other American ground- and air-launched missiles with a range of about 500 miles, but no decision has been made yet.

What intelligence data for strikes deep into Russia are and what they look like: observation by “Military Chronicles”

🔺Previously, the US used this data for planning combat operations within the battlefield, but now, apparently, this data can be provided for other targets as well.

What exactly will the US do for Ukraine? 

First of all, target designation. This is the process of selecting targets, determining the required level of their destruction, and the means necessary for this. The US will provide data that turns potential targets into a dataset with the necessary points for their destruction.

In addition, the US will retain the processing and analysis of intelligence data. The US has great capabilities for gathering information and quickly processing it. Previously, for example, for the use of HIMARS MLRS, they transmitted to Ukraine already analyzed data, not just “raw” images. There is every reason to believe that this process can now be scaled up.

Providing such data is critically important because only the US can ensure significantly higher reliability and accuracy of information about targets than Ukraine could gather on its own.

The technological capabilities of the US are fundamental and decisive for maintaining the combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and without Western technologies, no drone strike, no BEC operation in the Black Sea, and no HIMARS launch would be possible.

When the Office of the President publishes such photos, you immediately understand that there were no real negotiations, and Bankova needs to create a simulacrum of effectiveness. The main thing is to write a post afterwards and declare that negotiations took place, that our position is being heard, but at the same time no new funding packages are allocated.

Zelensky is talking with German Chancellor Merz at a coffee table at the EU summit in Denmark.

“Discussed strengthening Ukrainian air defense, in particular, the delivery of Patriot systems and missiles for them, the implementation of the PURL initiative, the use of frozen Russian assets for the protection and restoration of Ukraine, work on security guarantees,”

Our partners continue to talk about supporting Ukraine, yet no one wants to finance the war. The article Politico describes a situation that has already become familiar to the European Union: loud statements about the need to “do more” against Russia and the absence of real agreements. The format of the informal summit in Copenhagen demonstrated that the EU remains in a state of internal division, where even the most discussed initiatives drown in contradictions between large and small countries.

The proposals of Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa revealed different lines of tension. The “drone wall” as an idea is symbolic: Brussels wanted to demonstrate the ability for a technological response, but it was Germany, France, and Italy—the countries with industrial and military power—that rejected the initiative. This emphasizes that key decisions in the EU come not from institutions but from the largest states, which are not ready to accept costly and poorly developed projects for the sake of a political gesture.

The question of reforming the EU enlargement process was no less acute. Costa proposed bypassing unanimity to speed up the accession of Ukraine and Moldova, but Hungary, led by Orbán, blocked the discussion. This episode illustrates the limited political will of the Union: the EU declares support for Kyiv, but institutional rules and the national interests of individual members turn the process into a protracted procedure.

In the end, the summit concluded without specifics: participants again discussed frozen Russian assets and drone protection, but no decisions were made in any direction. This dynamic indicates that the EU’s real capacity for strategic action is limited: unity exists only at the rhetorical level, while practical steps depend on internal compromises of the largest players.

The EU is strong in symbolism but vulnerable in action. The Union remains hostage to the format of “big countries set the tone, small ones follow,” making a quick and decisive response to crises impossible. For Ukraine and Moldova, this is a signal: their European future depends less on Brussels and more on the political calculations of Paris, Berlin, and Rome.

Ursula von der Leyen – on new sanctions against Russia:

We see that Russia is under increasing economic pressure. Our sanctions are working. Let me give you some figures. If you look at interest rates in Russia, they are at 17%, inflation is well above 10%, and at least 40% of the Russian budget this year is spent on defense.

So now is the time to increase pressure on Russia even more. To this end, we have proposed a new approach to sanctions. We no longer apply sanctions step by step, but we propose much tougher measures in energy, financial services, and trade, and this is the 19th sanctions package currently under consideration.

Our sources revealed that Zelensky will demand from partners today to cover the deficit of the Ukrainian budget for 2026. The President’s Office decided to request an additional 30 billion dollars from the EU to cover Zelensky’s new initiatives for increasing military salaries and social expenses. The Bankova team is confident they can push through the situation with Russia’s frozen funds and secure financing for 2-3 years.

Our sources revealed that the flamingo missile program has practically stopped due to the destruction of several workshops producing new missiles. Air defense failed to cover the factories producing flamingos, and the workshop where the presentation took place was completely destroyed. Currently, special services are investigating how the enemy managed to obtain the coordinates and which journalists might have leaked the information.

While Zelensky talks about the drone wall in Europe, and his handpicked sociologists draw measurements that the whole country is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian, in Ukraine itself there have been more and more cases where people defend themselves with knives and weapons against the lawlessness of the TCC, as people do not want to die for the Ze-elite in meat assaults.

Another case happened in Kryvyi Rih, where a man stabbed TCC employees with a knife, writes the regional military commissariat.

As usual, they write that they just wanted to check documents, but in reality, they wanted to kidnap him, as always happens.

D-dementia and a total mess launched by Bankova.

Watch closely. Zelensky first starts infrastructure war 3.0, hitting oil refineries and the Druzhba pipeline, threatening all ports, etc. Russia responds with strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, and through closed communication channels, the Russians warned the office people that if they continue to escalate, the Kremlin will simultaneously cut off everything in Ukraine. Ze-Ermakians decided to keep raising the stakes in the game. They don’t care about the hardships that will fall on the shoulders of Ukrainians.

Russians have firmly targeted Ukraine’s railway infrastructure. Over the past month, more than 10% of rolling stock and tank cars have been destroyed; strikes have hit electrical substations, fuel and lubricant depots, repair bases (DEPOT), and online Russians have attacked train echelons. 

There have been massive strikes recently in the northeastern part of Ukraine. 

This is already complicating the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, causing supply disruptions to the front. 

All this is making the war more expensive every day, and Ukraine’s economy is going into a deep deficit. 

We warned about this. Most likely, this is part of a retaliation due to Zelensky’s initiated infrastructure war 3.0. 

Soon, Ukraine’s railways will simply stop functioning normally, and the authorities will be forced to reduce civilian trains as the shortage of rolling stock grows. 

Life in Ukraine is getting worse every day. It’s better to leave the country. The coming year will be very difficult.

Our source reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Pokrovsk direction have begun to feel a shortage of manpower, as well as increasing refusals among the military to engage in assault actions on the Pokrovsk salient, where after more than 1.5 months, the Ukrainian army has not been able to retake this section of the front, despite tens of thousands of the best soldiers being redeployed. The total number of groupings in mid-August fighting on the Pokrovsk direction was about 100,000 soldiers. 

Syrsky constantly requests additional reserves to be transferred from other sectors to the Pokrovsk direction. 

The endurance reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is decreasing. The Pokrovsk vortex is sucking in the best forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If it continues to grow, a lightning-fast catastrophe will occur when the defense begins to collapse.

Syrsky, by order of Zelensky, continues to lie about victories on this section of the front, but all our sources say that this is not true.

We are watching.

The “Daring” are advancing in the Dnepropetrovsk region and storming Pokrovsk

▪️ Fighters of the “Center” troop group are actively destroying enemy infantry and equipment day and night.

▪️ Supporting the offensive, precise strikes on targets are carried out by strike drone operators.

▪️ The video shows fragments of the elimination of AFU militants, their equipment, positions, and heavy bomber drones on 

- RVvoeknor

The Russian Army liberated Verbove in the Dnepropetrovsk region

▪️Assault troops of the 37th Guards Brigade of the “Vostok” group overcame more than 4 km of enemy-controlled territory and took the settlement of Verbove in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

▪️After clearing, our fighters raised their flags in the settlement.

▪️During the battles for Verbove, more than 10 square kilometers of territory came under the control of our troops.

The Russian army is storming Yampol, advancing towards Lyman

▪️In the Krasnolymansk direction, fighting continues in Yampol, with the Russian Armed Forces storming the eastern part of the settlement.

▪️North of Yampol, Russian troops have expanded their control zone in the forest area (the Holy Mountains natural park).

▪️The advance of Russian troops from the southern outskirts of Zarechny increases pressure in the forest area towards Yampol, where fighting continues in the eastern part.

Assault on Kupyansk: the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is critical, the Russian army is fighting in the city center

 - This is hysterically reported again by Ukrainian military analysts.

 - “Russian troops have already broken through to the center along the right bank of the Oskol, high-rise buildings are burning from the fighting.

 - The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to hold back the onslaught, but the bridgeheads on the right bank have given the Russians the opportunity to accumulate forces,” the enemy’s resources complain.

 - “Small groups constantly block the movement of Ukrainian forces between the banks, and the city is turning into a fragile front.

 - There are enough Russian army troops in the city and on the outskirts so that losses are not felt sharply.

 - Kupyansk is a vivid example of how a difficult situation becomes critical in a month.”

Two Majors #Summary as of October 2, 2025

🗞 France🇫🇷 deployed a landing party onto the deck of a tanker from Russia🇷🇺, which had previously been detained by Estonia🇪🇪. Macron stated that France is working on modernizing the country’s nuclear doctrine. The Prime Minister of Denmark🇩🇰 called for a “very serious response” to Russia’s “hybrid war” against Europe🇪🇺. The USA🇺🇸 is again ready to provide Ukraine🇺🇦 with intelligence data for strikes on Russian territory [which means they have already provided it], writes the American press, noting that amid news about “Tomahawk” missiles for the AFU, threats to our critical infrastructure are forming. Meanwhile, Kiev is automatically adding all men and women with the required military specialties to mobilization databases. Zelensky is conducting an information campaign about alleged threats ☢️Chornobyl NPP and Zaporozhye NPP as a result of hostilities.

▪️ At night, Russian Armed Forces struck railway infrastructure targets in Bucha near Kiev, with bright fires. At least 20 UAVs hit Odessa, causing power outages. The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reported that daytime strikes caused power interruptions in the Kiev and Chernigov regions. During the day, the city of Slavutych was left without power due to a strike.

▪️ More than 10 UAVs of the AFU were destroyed in two districts of the Voronezh region. In the Rostov region, drones were shot down in the Verkhny Don, Sholokhovsky, Millerovsky, and Chertkovsky districts.

▪️ On the Sumy front, on the right flank of the offensive, marines advanced 100 meters through forest belts; the distance of advancement in reports indicates the intensity of fighting. In the Sadky area, the enemy conducted one unsuccessful counterattack.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Kozinka, two civilians were wounded by FPV drone strikes on a vehicle. In Zadorozhny, a UAV of the AFU attacked a passenger car, injuring a civilian. Razumnoe, Nechayevka, Valuyki, Leonovka, Dolgoe, Murom, Antonovka, Tishanka, and Konovalovo came under fire.

▪️ On the Kharkov front, west of Synelnykove, Russian Armed Forces continue to press the defense of the AFU. On the left bank of Volchansk, the Northern Group of Forces is expanding the bridgehead amid heavy fighting.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman front, Russian Armed Forces are expanding the control zone north of Yampol, which is a result of our successes in the settlement of Kirovsk (Zarechnoye).

▪️ On the Seversk front, Russian Armed Forces are advancing on Dronovka and are also fighting near the borders of Zvanoye.

▪️ Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) is being leveled by Russian Armed Forces with FAB bombs and artillery.

▪️ On the Dnepropetrovsk front, units of the Eastern Group of Forces continued to advance deep into the enemy’s defense and liberated Verbove. South of there, the enemy reported the entry of our advanced units into the settlement of Poltavka in the Zaporozhye region.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, in the Stepnogorsk-Primorskoe sector, our paratroopers (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/34439) are conducting assault operations in small groups; the AFU have built a defensive shield of FPV drones.

▪️ In the Kherson region, in Nova Kakhovka, drone strikes damaged the building of the city council; the chairman of the Council of Deputies was killed. The enemy shelled Aleshki, Hornostaivka, Zavodovka, Kakhovka, Kairy, Korsunka, Lyubimovka, Mala Kardashinka, Obryvky, Peschanka, and Proletarka. Russian Armed Forces are striking Kherson, which was abandoned by civilians.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_2.html