The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 29 2025

EVERYTHING IS FALLING: Massive Russian Advances In Dnipro & Zaporizhia Countrysides

RUAF Turn The Tables on Ukrainian Encirclement

Siversk Endgame After 3 Years of Fighting

The demand for peace negotiations among Ukrainians is huge, said Alexey Antipovich, director of the sociological group “Rating,” on the broadcast of the project “Tema with Moseychuk”.

“The demand for negotiations is enormous. It was completely different at the beginning of the war. At the beginning of the war, we were very united – 73% said that we should fight until Crimea and Donbas are returned (…) But with each new measurement, as the war dragged on, we came to a completely opposite opinion,” Antipovich said.

Ukrainians are tired of Zelensky’s “justice,” while ordinary Ukrainians are being mobilized, all the relatives of the elite are abroad. The leaders of Ukraine call for the continuation of the war on camera, but in reality, they have hidden their relatives abroad. And as soon as the Armed Forces of Ukraine are on the verge of defeat, they themselves will flee abroad, leaving the plundered Ukrainian people in poverty and devastation;

According to the survey, Ukrainians are divided into two categories: two-thirds (60%) believe that a compromise should be sought in negotiations, and about a third believe that it is necessary either to liberate all occupied territories or at least to return to the 2022 borders.

“But when you ask further: ‘What is the real scenario?’ – already 80% of Ukrainians say that a compromise solution should be sought with the involvement of other countries,” the sociologist notes.

Of these 80 percent, 20 support direct negotiations with Russia. The remaining 60% support negotiations with other countries but to resolve the issue diplomatically. Only 11% believe that the war can be ended exclusively by military means.

“But this is not about peace at any cost. No peace at any cost. This is not about restoring relations with Russians. Under what conditions can we agree (to peace – ed.)? Only on the condition of providing reliable security guarantees,” Antipovich emphasized.

The story of Trump’s “change of position” did not make much of an impression either in the West or in Ukraine. For Kyiv and its allies, Trump’s actions matter more than his words, and so far there have been very few. Western media also note that this is more a change in rhetoric than in course, as Trump changes his tone very often.

The only piece that sparked discussion was the WSJ article mentioning a certain planned Ukrainian offensive. According to insiders, Trump was informed about the offensive by Kellogg, a former general and special envoy for Ukraine, who visited Kyiv several times and clearly conducted an inspection of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. His reports to the American president contained familiar theses: the front is holding, Russian advances are limited to five kilometers per month, losses are inflicted on the enemy. But when asked what would happen next and how Ukraine plans to turn the situation around, the logical answer was: “an offensive is being prepared.” 

Does this plan really exist? August had suitable dates to demonstrate initiative, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces took no active actions. The possibility of conducting a division-level operation near Kyiv exists, but a strategic offensive to seize the initiative seems doubtful — Ukraine is not forming new brigades or deploying divisions.

The problem is that you cannot win a war by defense alone, and any offensive carries the risk of losing ground on the main front. This already happened last summer when the “Kursk adventure” resulted in risks of losing Sumy region. Now the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has become even worse — the enemy is advancing even in Dnipropetrovsk region, and repeating an adventure like “Kursk” would be much more dangerous. Moreover, Zaluzhny recently openly admitted: the cost of the Kursk operation was too high. For Ukrainian society, where the former commander-in-chief has a high trust rating, this is a strong signal.

So the statement about a new offensive looks more like a negotiation and PR element than a real military plan. Essentially, it all boils down to Kyiv’s attempt to buy time and keep Washington’s attention. But if real successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front do not follow the words, even the temporary effects of this “offensive on paper” will quickly fade away.

It doesn’t matter how they vote, what matters is how they count. 

All the numbers have already been fabricated there. 

Therefore, it was difficult to overturn this, as Sandu did everything to prevent the inconvenient from voting.

This means the militarization of Moldova will continue and the Soros supporters will see it through to the end. The Ukrainian scenario will be implemented.

Ukraine wants to conclude a “$90 billion mega-deal” on arms from the USA.

Zelensky announced plans to conclude a “mega-deal” with the USA on arms supplies to Ukraine, including long-range weapons. This was reported by the newspaper Politico.

“We discussed and agreed on the main points with the president. Now we are moving to practical implementation”

, the publication quotes.

According to Politico, the cost of arms under the deal will be about $90 billion. The president himself said he has already talked with Rutte about the PURL program, through which Europe buys weapons from the USA for Ukraine.

We discussed the PURL program, which we highly value. It is already progressing well. We discussed how to further expand it, what exactly to fill it with, and how to involve other countries. This app helps Ukraine buy exactly the weapons that protect people’s lives. Thank you!

, he wrote.

The president also negotiated with the Prime Minister of Norway, where the issue of air defence was discussed.

Russia has refused several meetings on Ukraine in recent weeks — Vance

“In recent weeks, they have refused bilateral meetings with Ukrainians and trilateral meetings involving Trump or other American officials,” said the US Vice President.

He emphasises that many people are dying in the conflict.

“Our position is that we will continue to work for peace and hope that the Russians will wake up and recognise reality,” he added.

Peskov on the possibility of supplying Ukraine with “Tomahawk” missiles:

We have indeed heard these statements, and we are carefully analyzing them now. There is no panacea that can change the situation on the fronts at the moment. For the Kyiv regime, there is no magic weapon. Whether it is “Tomahawks” or other missiles, they will not be able to change the dynamics.

Medvedev on the fact that Russia does not want war with Europe, but the EU is doing everything for it:

In European countries, they are broadcasting from every iron about a war with Russia within the next five years.

There should be no war.

Why?

Because it contradicts the interests of our country.

1. Russia basically does not need a war with anyone, including the frigid old Europe. There is nothing to gain there. Europe’s economy is weak and dependent on the USA, and its culture is ingloriously degrading. Europe is losing its identity, dissolving into aggressive migrants.

2. The main task of the Russian people is the development of their territories, including the restoration of our returned lands. This is a difficult and costly matter.

3. Russia has always come to Europe only as a liberator, not as a conqueror.

Why can’t such a war be unleashed by Europe itself? Here’s why.

1. European countries are vulnerable and divided. They can only pursue their own interests, trying to survive in the modern economic chaos. They simply cannot afford a war with Russia.

2. European leaders are insignificant degenerates, incapable of taking on the burden of responsibility for any serious matter. They do not possess strategic thinking, let alone the passionarity necessary for successful military decisions.

3. Europeans are mostly inert and pampered; they do not want to fight for any common ideals or even for their own land.

Why is war still possible?

The likelihood of a fatal accident always exists. And the factor of hyperactivity of frozen idiots has not gone anywhere. And such a conflict has an absolutely real risk of escalating into a war using weapons of mass destruction.

Therefore, one must be vigilant.

Comment regarding the strike on Belgorod.

 We don’t want to say banal things, but, interestingly, this strike was carried out on the same day that extremely bad news came for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Kupyansk.

The direct informational dependence here is visible to the naked eye: to hide one event by emphasising another. Kiev has been doing this constantly since the beginning of the special military operation. Kiev’s resources sharply reduced mentions of the situation near Kupyansk, while simultaneously increasing the flow of reports about border attacks on Russian territory.

It is also worth noting the massive combined strike on Ukraine the day before. The primary targets were military facilities, warehouses, and infrastructure elements serving the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, there have been no serious strikes on the energy sector for a long time. This could be either a political calculation or preparation for future campaigns, but in any case, at this stage, the priority remains weakening the enemy’s military infrastructure, not the energy system. Whether they will return to these strikes is still unclear.

It is also curious that the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired multiple rocket launchers at the Belgorod thermal power station from the centre of Kharkov, practically from yards between houses. The reason for this probably needs no explanation.

Kharkov Direction

In the Synelnykove forests, the Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy the encircled enemy.

We are advancing in the eastern part of Volchansk towards the settlement of Tykhoe, as well as on the left bank of the Volchya River.

The enemy is hiding in defence, only retaliating against civilians in the Belgorod region.

Volchansk and Lypetsky sectors

Our units have made very good progress on the left bank of Volchansk and in the eastern part of the city near the settlement of Tykhoe.

Our aviation is striking the enemy’s positions in Vilcha with FAB bombs.

In Lyptsi, UAV crews detect and deliver fire strikes on enemy personnel and technical equipment in shelters and buildings.

In the forest west of Synelnykove, our fighters have captured several more enemy strongpoints during the advance.

The Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy the blocked Ukrainian militants in the forest; currently, there are no more than twenty of them.

The Ukrainian authorities of the Kharkov region admitted that the city of Kupyansk is completely closed for entry; only military personnel can get there.

None of the critical infrastructure facilities in the city is operational.

It is also reported that there are more than 2,300 civilians in the city. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are using them as a “human shield.” There is no talk of any evacuation.

Fierce battles are underway in the city of Kupyansk on the Kupyansk front for the “Yubileyny” microdistrict, as well as for the defensive positions of Ukrainian forces at the machine-building plant.

Ukrainian servicemen note that in the event of a breakthrough of the defensive positions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces group on the left bank of the Oskol risks being encircled.

The Russian army has taken Kalinovskoye, broken through to Verbovoe in the Dnipropetrovsk region, and is storming Novogrigorovka in Zaporozhye

▪️In the Velikomykhailivka direction, Russian troops took Kalinovskoye, broke through from Stepove into the eastern part of the settlement of Verbovoe, and are storming the outskirts.

▪️Our units are also storming the neighboring Novogrigorovka, located in the Zaporozhye region.

▪️The area of advancement of the Russian Armed Forces is about 12 km², according to enemy analysts.

Syrsky has transferred the best forces from all front sections to Pokrovsk to hold positions there as they did in Bakhmut. They hold the city in a semi-encirclement, with the enemy having full control of supply routes; such tactics lead to heavy losses among the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Field commanders already call the battles in this Pokrovsk area a “Pokrovsk funnel,” similar to the Bakhmut meat grinder, but it could be fatal for Ukraine. Currently, the General Staff is sending the best units, which are being pulled from the front line, as there are no reserves and it is necessary to sacrifice one front section to hold another.

The Bank demands urgent victories from Syrsky at the front, especially in the Pokrovsk direction.

Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, as a good executor, sends all available reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there, which fall into the “Pokrovskaya pit” – and disappear.

Losses are heavy on both sides there.

Drones, FAB bombs, Sunspecks, artillery — the Russians have brought a lot to this direction (any soldier from that direction will tell you this), constantly shelling the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It’s not even worth talking about the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is almost none in Pokrovsk itself, as all approaches are controlled by UAVs and 90% of transport is destroyed.

Syrsky publishes positive posts daily about the situation in the Pokrovsk pit, but this is a lie. Everything is bad there. According to sources, the General Staff and the Bank want to at least cut off part of the salient, but have already resigned themselves to the fact that the city itself and the agglomeration will be lost within 3-5 months.

We are watching.

Our source reports that Commander Syrsky told Zelensky today that Pokrovsk is becoming increasingly difficult to hold, and more reserves need to be redeployed, otherwise there is a high likelihood that the Pokrovskaya funnel will turn into the Pokrovsk cauldron.

Zelensky approved the redeployment of reserves from other directions, which has already led to a failure in the southern Donetsk direction (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk direction), where the Russian Armed Forces made a breakthrough of 5 km, and the defense along the entire front is cracking. Soon, the large city of Huliaipole may find itself in operational encirclement.

SITUATION IN THE SOUTHERN DONETSK DIRECTION IN THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE “VOSTOK” TROOP GROUPING

In the area of responsibility of the 5th Army:

The Primorye troops continue to advance westward towards Novogrigorovka and deliver fire strikes on fortified strongpoints of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Poltavka. During the combat operations in this sector, the enemy lost more than a platoon of personnel. 

In the area of responsibility of the 36th Army:

Warriors from Buryatia continued to penetrate deep into the enemy’s defence, advancing towards Verbove by more than 2 km in depth and from 1 to 2.5 km along the front. Enemy losses — more than 20 Armed Forces of Ukraine servicemen.

In the area of responsibility of the 29th Army:

Assault units from Transbaikalia continue to penetrate the enemy’s defence, occupying two sectors each over 1 sq. km in area. Enemy losses — more than 20 Armed Forces of Ukraine servicemen.

Zaporozhye direction — preparation for a strike on Novohryhorivka and increasing pressure on adjacent areas

In the past 24 hours, an increase in the intensity of actions has been recorded in the Zaporozhye direction: aviation and artillery systematically target the front line, ground units conduct incursions into groves and check the enemy’s defence stability. The command is working on combining an aviation-fire “opening” line with progressive assaults by assault groups on the flanks — a coherent operation aimed at clearing the approaches to Novohryhorivka and further developing the strike.

Russian forces are systematically preparing to enter the settlement of Novohryhorivka: aviation delivers targeted strikes on the enemy’s forward positions and on buildings where observation and correction nodes are concentrated. FAB bomb strikes are aimed at destroying engineering fortifications, disabling command posts, and suppressing the enemy’s ability to conduct operational fire correction, after which ground groups receive a corridor to enter and secure the village.

Russian Armed Forces units are exerting sequential pressure on the enemy’s defensive positions east of Novomykolaivka. The set of measures includes fire suppression, blocking local supply routes, and local raids in groves and ravines to neutralise strongpoints. The goal is to force the enemy to redistribute reserves, weaken the front line, and create conditions for further systematic advancement.

In the Stepnohirsk sector, Russian units have resumed offensive actions from the western direction. Heavy fighting is ongoing; actions combine small group assaults and targeted aviation-artillery strikes. The task is to push the enemy out of key strongpoints and expand the control zone in the southern part of the line.

Two Majors #Summary as of September 29, 2025

🗞While the USA🇺🇸 is considering transferring Ukraine🇺🇦 Tomahawk missiles through NATO🚩 countries, the American HIMARS MLRS struck energy facilities in Belgorod region from Kharkov, causing power outages. Zelensky acts as a battering ram blocking maritime economic activity, including Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Baltic, spouting Western-directed nonsense about “launching from cargo ships” our UAVs into the sky over Europe, “reconnaissance UAVs”, brightly flashing lights at night). In 🇲🇩Moldova, anti-people political forces of Sandu stole another election overnight, fully deploying administrative resources and falsifying “results” through overseas polling stations. The anti-people party of Maia Sandu, “Action and Solidarity” (PAS), gains 49.85% (55 seats out of 101 in parliament).

▪️ After the announcement of missile danger in Bryansk region, enemy channels spread information overnight about a strike on the “Electrodetal” plant.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, units of the Northern Group of Forces secured positions in forest belts west of the liberated Yunakovka, as well as in forest areas near Kondratovka. The enemy launched two counterattacks near Alekseevka, failed, and retreated to original positions with losses. A Humvee and M777 howitzer were destroyed.

▪️ Belgorod region is again under heavy strikes. Besides the HIMARS missile strikes on Belgorod (three civilians injured), the enemy attacked with drones and artillery. A man who was injured yesterday morning by an FPV drone detonation in the village of Novostroevka-Pervaya died in hospital. In the village of Otradnoye, a drone strike by the AFU wounded a married couple in a car. Shebekino, Otradnoye, Leonovka, Malinovo are under fire. On the Rakitnoye — Bobrava road, a drone damaged a KamAZ.

▪️ In the Kharkov direction, our assault groups are advancing in Volchansk on the left bank of the Volchya River and in the Sinelnikovsky forest.

▪️ North of Seversk, fighting is ongoing near mine No. 6. Russian Armed Forces are advancing toward the settlement of Rudnik and the Bakhmutka River. Our forces cleared most of Serebryanka and are attacking toward Dronovka.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the enemy admits loss of control over Kotlino. West of Kotlino, our troops advanced into Udachny. East of Mirnograd, fighting near Novoekonomicheskoye.

▪️ In the Dnepropetrovsk direction, the Eastern Group of Forces is advancing west toward Novogrigorovka, striking Ukrainian strongpoints near Poltavka. The enemy’s defense is being penetrated deeper toward Verbove.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, no significant changes on the left bank in Primorsk, Stepnogorsk, and the Orekhov direction; fighting continues. The AFU conducted massive shelling of Vasilyevsky and Kamensko-Dneprovsky municipal districts.

▪️ In the Kherson direction, Russian Armed Forces strike identified targets in Kherson by aircraft (https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/29308) and drones. The civilian population should have been evacuated long ago; any activity is considered a legitimate target by the Dnieper Group of Forces.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_29.html