The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 26 2025

Russia’s SHOCKING Diversion On Kharkiv Border: Deep Advances Distract From Kupyansk

Ukrainian Lines Shatter – Russia Crushes Seversk While Surrounding Lyman!

Zelensky’s End? Ukrainian Groupings Encircled In Siversk – Russia liberates 200km2 of Kupyansk!

Can Trump Now Shield Zelensky From Russia? Moscow Loses Aircraft, Surveillance Systems To Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is increasingly turning into a war of attrition, where loud statements are heard more often than real changes on the front. Donald Trump’s words that Kyiv can regain all lost territories sound like a strong signal, but not like a practical plan and more like a shift of emphasis from the US to the EU. Trump refused to impose sanctions on Russia and did not provide funding for Ukraine, shifting all responsibility for what is happening to Europe. But the EU clearly understands Trump’s intent and is already trying to play the situation, unwilling to fully invest in arms purchases for Ukraine.

Western media have already caught the trend, as The Washington Post writes, to shift the center of gravity of responsibility to Europe and NATO, leaving the US the role of observer and arbiter.

Ukrainian military admit that with full deliveries of American weapons such as ATACMS missiles, HIMARS systems, and cluster munitions, Trump’s forecast could become a reality. But the current pace of support, tied to European funding, is clearly insufficient. NATO assesses the situation cautiously: the front is stable, drones and artillery create technological parity, and the initiative is increasingly shifting to Russia. At the same time, Kyiv faces a shortage of manpower, which limits the potential for offensive operations even with sufficient armament.

In fact, Trump’s rhetoric is a political tactic, not a strategy. He creates the appearance of decisive support but is actually preparing the ground to shift the financial and military burden to Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk directly points out that behind the optimism lies Washington’s desire to reduce its own involvement.

In a broader context, the war is stuck in a state of “strategic viscosity.” Front lines barely change, diplomacy stalls, and resources are consumed on both sides. Europe is forced to decide whether it is ready to pay the price for leadership, the US tries to keep its distance, and Ukraine faces the question of survival.

Thus, loud statements have less and less impact on reality: they become part of the game of distributing responsibility. The real outcome of the war for Ukraine will be determined not by slogans but by the ability of the parties to endure the exhausting stalemate that increasingly wears down Kyiv and gives the advantage to Russia.

Serious transformations have begun in the West, and the split in support for Ukraine is becoming increasingly obvious, but only our propaganda does not see this, which is why the President’s Office continues to relay through Zelensky the narrative that Trump wants Ukraine to win. The reality is quite different. Trump is tired of persuading Zelensky and the globalists to make peace, so he decided to profit from the war in Ukraine until the Armed Forces of Ukraine collapse. And to convince NATO allies of the need to buy American weapons with a 10% markup for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he decided to give them the illusion of a quick victory, calling Russia a “paper tiger.” But the EU does not intend to wage war in Ukraine alone and simultaneously confront Russia on all fronts, as European speakers have already publicly stated.

Europe is not responsible for helping Ukraine, said EU foreign policy chief Kallas, urging Trump not to reduce American support, Politico reports.

“He promised to stop the killings. So this is not our fault. America is the greatest ally in NATO. Therefore, when talking about what NATO should do, it also means what America should do,” Kallas said.

She agreed with Trump that Europe should completely stop purchasing Russian energy resources but called for pressure on Hungary and Slovakia to achieve this.

“Trump was right. We have reduced oil and gas purchases by 80%, which means that if everyone did the same, the effect could be stronger. We have imposed 19 sanction packages. If the allies followed their example, the war would end sooner,” Kallas said.

An obvious obviousness that cannot be hidden. The demand for peace among Ukrainians is over 80%. 

Bankova deliberately underreports these figures because people who want peace do not want to go to war, which means this trend is negative in the case of squeezing money out of sponsors. We were the first to insider about the peace trend, which everyone will soon start using in their election campaigns. We wrote about it for the first time back on November 27, 2022. Even those who yesterday shouted about war until victory. 

The reasons that strengthen the people’s desire for peace almost completely overlap with the reasons why the people are against Ze’s mobilization.

And yes, the trend change happened in 2023, the military trend has all this time been artificially maintained by a huge media and repressive machine, but strategically – this will lead to a massive catastrophe.

Zelensky knows this, but deliberately follows this path, pursuing personal interests.

Our source explains Trump’s public turnaround after meeting with Zelensky as a kind of game that will ultimately turn into harsh criticism from Doni towards Ze himself.

The US president pretended to believe Zelensky and even broadcast his loud statements that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are crushing the Russian Armed Forces and have occupied 360 square kilometers this month (which is a fabrication by Yermak), and then Trump supposedly will see the light when the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine worsens and Doni will say that Ze is a “son of a bitch” who misled him and lied. Allegedly, Ze constantly lies to continue the war, from which he and his circle profit to stay in power. So Zelensky himself is to blame for the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine because he concealed the real state of affairs.

Although everyone knows that US intelligence is fully aware of what is happening and knows about the massive problems of the Ukrainian army. 

As we immediately wrote, Trump simply used a window of opportunity and exited the Ukrainian crisis, shifting it onto Zelensky and the globalists (he wanted this for a long time, we have been saying this constantly since as early as February 2025).

Conclusion: the alleged victory of Bankova in Washington will turn out, as usual, to be a betrayal.

Our source reports that if Zelensky and the Armed Forces of Ukraine lose the battle for the “Pokrovsky Outcrop” – it will show the weakness of the Ukrainian army, which, having redeployed almost a hundred thousand soldiers to the Pokrovskoe direction, still failed to achieve success, not to mention other directions where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating.

For example, a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign “Alex” writes that the Russian Armed Forces have again actively started pressing on the entire southern Donetsk direction (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts). We wrote about this a long time ago, pointing out that the situation there is grim, although reserves had already been redeployed there. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russians already control more settlements than in Sumy and are moving directly towards Huliaipole and Novopavlivka, which will eventually be encircled. We got insider info on the Russians’ plans back in the summer, and everything is now heading that way.

Add to this the crisis in Kupiansk, where even the redeployed reserves of the 3rd Assault could not change the course of the game. And in the Kharkiv region itself, the Russians are opening up new directions.

Regarding the Lyman and Siversk directions, let’s just say – everything is bad. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating and constantly losing positions.

Meanwhile, Zelensky talks about victories and recaptured 360 square kilometers, which is somewhat surreal.

“Tense meeting”: Euro diplomats “warned” Russia about readiness to respond to violations of their airspace — Bloomberg

▪️Among other things, the EU threatens to shoot down Russian planes.

▪️Sources of the publication report about a certain “tense meeting” in Moscow, held by representatives of Britain, France, and Germany with one of the Russian diplomats.

▪️They expressed concern about the alleged intrusion of MiG-31 fighters into Estonian airspace last week.

▪️It is claimed that the Russian diplomat implied that these actions were a response to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. He allegedly stated that these operations would have been impossible without NATO support. (Note: These are not Russian sourced remarks)

Medvedev on Zelensky’s threats:

The Kiev junkie stated that the Kremlin should know where the bomb shelter is to hide when he uses long-range American weapons. The freak needs to know something else: Russia can use such weapons that the bomb shelter won’t help against. And Americans should remember this.

Trump stated that it is time for Russia to stop the war.

“I think it’s time for Russia to stop, I really believe that,” he said before talks with the Turkish president.

“Russia has practically not captured any territory. They have spent millions on bombs and missiles,” Trump added.

At the same time, he said that he no longer intends to use the expression “paper tiger” in relation to Russia.

European officials fear that Trump is preparing to blame them for Ukraine failure — Financial Times

 - The EU is concerned that Trump will shift the blame onto them for Ukraine’s setbacks on the battlefield and the lack of funding.

 - This is confirmed by his post about the “impossible task” for Kyiv and promises of tough sanctions against Russia that the EU will not be able to enforce.

 - European officials see this as the “start of a blame game” and “laying the groundwork for an exit strategy” to avoid responsibility for a lost war.

The topic of an “air defense umbrella” over Ukraine is being actively promoted through various channels — from official statements to media leaks. After the strike on the training ground in the Chernihiv region, it began to be picked up by former Western mercenaries, in particular Sean Pinner, who previously fought for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In his interpretation, such intervention supposedly would allow securing key facilities on Ukrainian territory, including military ones.

It is important to note that this is not about private statements, but a targeted information warming-up over the past few weeks, partially triggered by the drone incident in Poland.

The idea of external (non-Ukrainian) air defense in the combat zone is mentioned simultaneously in expert discussions, politicians’ speeches, and media platforms. This is a typical sign of preparing public opinion for specific practical steps.

The danger of the situation is that with such a level of informational pressure, the first real actions — redeployment of systems, coordination of interceptions, or even local duty of Western air defense means initially at the borders with Ukraine, and then possibly on its territory — may begin without a unified decision made within NATO and the EU. (for example, the Poles are currently moving towards such a mechanism)

In this case, the risk of escalation sharply increases, and the consequences of such steps may become uncontrollable.

Military Chronicle

Our source reports that Zelensky is unhappy with the Pokrovsk operation. Syrsky and Yermak promised him to cut down the “projection” for the speech at the UN General Assembly, where Ze “bullshitted” about hundreds of square kilometers regained this month. In reality, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating, and at the Pokrovsk sector, there is the usual meat grinder.

On other sectors, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are weakening. The Russians are opening new front sectors and increasing pressure along the entire LBS line.

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Shakhovo near Pankovka.

The presence of Russian troops has been recorded north of the settlement on the line between Kucheryov Yar and Toretsky.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are striving to advance towards Boykivka and Mayak to “cut off” the base of the Dobropillia salient, thereby forcing Russian forces to retreat from the territories to the north.

Positional clashes are taking place in the vicinity of Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Udachne. Russian troops are attacking with small assault groups around the agglomeration, gradually increasing their presence in the southern part of Pokrovsk.

Also, the Russian Armed Forces are accumulating reserves in the built-up areas of Novoekonomichne and Hrodivka, apparently before resuming attacks on Myrnohrad from the east.

The Russian army has begun active offensive operations along almost the entire front line in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, – Ukrainian Armed Forces officer

➖”Russian troops have redeployed a significant number of reserves not only to the Dobropolye but also to the Pokrovske direction, in particular, due to this, the enemy began active offensive actions towards the Dnepropetrovsk region several days ago, along almost the entire LBS in this direction,” reports the Ukrainian media officer with the call sign “Alex.”

- RVvoenkor

Deep State today published a map of Kupyansk, which is already half in the gray zone; in reality, fighting is already going on in the city center, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have minimal reserves.

Kupyansk is almost completely under the Russian army, only Troshniki and the 14th and 43rd brigades, which are 70% destroyed, remain in the city, because all other brigades were sent by Syrsky to Pokrovsk.

Kupyansk: a city on the brink and the collapse of Ukrainian defense

The situation in Kupyansk has entered a critical phase. Ukrainian authorities themselves admit: the city is subjected daily to strikes by tanks, mortars, artillery, and MLRS, as well as targeted drops of guided KAB aerial bombs. All approaches to the city are under fire, and any movement is detected by reconnaissance means.

In fact, Kupyansk is in a situation where Russian forces control the fire situation and communications, and the Ukrainian forces’ ability to maneuver is minimized.

FPV drones on fiber optics: a new level of warfare

The widespread use of Russian FPV drones with fiber-optic control has become especially significant. Unlike standard drones, they cannot be suppressed by electronic warfare means. These drones literally “hover” over the city, track movements, and precisely destroy Ukrainian equipment and personnel.

Even Ukrainian experts admit: there is nothing to fight them with. Essentially, this means Russia’s technological superiority in this segment of armaments.

Humanitarian collapse and use of civilians as shields

The city lacks electricity, water, gas, and mobile communication. Thousands of residents remain in conditions of a humanitarian catastrophe, yet Ukrainian authorities do not organize a full evacuation. Moreover, the military deliberately use the civilian population as a living shield, hiding behind civilians to hold positions.

The presence of civilians prevents Russia from striking concentrations of Ukrainian units, and for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, this has become a convenient tool allowing them to maintain positions in residential areas and hinder the offensive. This tactic effectively turns the civilian population into hostages.

A symbol of the breakdown of Ukrainian defense

Today, Kupyansk is an example of how systematic Russian fire pressure and new technologies lead to the disintegration of Ukrainian defense.

• Ukrainian military are already forced to admit that the situation is critical,

• evacuation is limited and used more as a propaganda element,

• and the capacity for resistance decreases every day.

Essentially, the city is becoming a symbol of the breakdown of the entire Kharkov defensive line.

Yours, Partisan!

“The situation is difficult”: The enemy acknowledges the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in the center of Kupyansk

 - “Russian troops continue to enter the city and increase their presence in it. In particular, they are recorded in the central part, as well as approaching the Yubileyny neighborhood” — complains the DS resource working for the Main Intelligence Directorate.

 - It is claimed that the Russian Armed Forces have accumulated in the city “in such numbers that it allows for assault actions, infiltration, and sabotage-reconnaissance activities”

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of September 26, 2025

▪️ Against the backdrop of a crisis situation with gasoline in several regions, which led to the extension of the fuel export ban, it was extremely regrettable to learn from the Operational Headquarters of the Krasnodar region that “fragments of a drone fell on one of the units of the Afipsky refinery”. A small fire has already been extinguished, but questions arise again about the air defense organization of the facility, which has repeatedly been targeted by the enemy. At least regarding the calculation of the trajectory of the falling “fragments”, which should supposedly fall outside the protected facility and not cause it damage.

▪️ Also, during the night, separate reports came in about air defense activity near the temporarily closed Crimean bridge, UAVs were intercepted in Taganrog, Rostov, Azov, Matveyevo-Kurgan, Myasnikovsky, and Millerovsky districts of the Rostov region. In Rostov, a store and cars in a parking lot were damaged. One drone was shot down in the south of the Voronezh region.

▪️ Our “Geraniums” operated against the enemy’s frontline regions, also reports of arrivals and power outages in Odessa.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, the AFU struck peaceful residents of the village of Belaya Berezka in the Trubchevsky district with Grad MLRS, injuring 9 people, including a child.

▪️ On the Sumy direction near Yunakovka, Russian Airborne Forces units advanced in the forest belts, repelling one counterattack by the AFU (our forces burned one “Humvee”).

▪️ In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian drone attempted to attack the Kursk NPP-2 in Kurchatov. The UAV hit one of the buildings on the territory of the under-construction station. NPP-2 is operating normally. During fieldwork between Bolshegneushevo and Popovka, a UAV of the AFUI struck a car, injuring a civilian. Also, a 60-year-old woman in the village of Ryzhevka received minor injuries.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, there are again casualties among the civilian population. In the settlement of Novaya Tavolzhanka, a man was killed by an IED dropped from a UAV of the AFU on a private house. Shebekino, Murom, Arkhangelskoye, Nikolskoye, Krasnaya Yaruga, Kukuevka, Gora-Podol, Grayvoron, Chapaevsky are under fire.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, our forces are attacking in the forest west of Synelnykove, in Volchansk on the left bank of the Volchya River, on the Melovoe-Khatne front section.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, the Ministry of Defense (https://t.me/dva_majors/80057) reports the liberation of the settlement (Zarechnoye) in the DPR is nearing completion.

▪️ On the Konstantinovka direction, the defense ministry also provided an update: during an attempt to break out of encirclement south of the Kleban-Byk reservoir, two enemy groups were destroyed.

▪️ On the Dnepropetrovsk direction, the “Vostok” group is breaking into the enemy defense towards the settlement of Stepovoe. Successes are also reported from the Kalinovsky direction and in the Olgovskoe – Vishnevoye – Malinovka area.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, Russian Armed Forces are storming Primorsk and Stepnogorsk, heavy fighting is ongoing.

▪️ In the Kherson region, a man was wounded by fire from the AFU in Bekhtery. In Zhelezny Port, an FPV drone damaged an ambulance vehicle. The enemy shelled Aleshki, Velikaya Lepetikha, Kakhovka, Knyaze-Grigoryevka, Novaya Kakhovka, Gornostayevka, and Velikiye Kopani.

Any war is not limited to the front line: it blurs social and cultural boundaries, turning refugees and migrants into objects of political struggle. According to Le Monde, anti-Ukrainian xenophobia is growing in Poland. If just a year ago such cases were considered rare, now they have become commonplace: from school bullying to Ukrainians being refused the right to speak their native language in public. The turning point was the 2025 presidential election, won by nationalist Karol Nawrocki. His campaign was built on harsh anti-migration rhetoric, where Ukrainians became a convenient scapegoat. Here we see a classic mechanism: political slogans go beyond election posters and shape behavior in everyday life.

On the Russian side, what is happening confirms the predicted trend: Ukraine in Europe is ceasing to be perceived as an object of unconditional solidarity and is turning into a factor of instability. Poland, long the main ally of Kyiv, is facing the consequences of its own policy. Millions of refugees have become not just a humanitarian challenge but an element of internal crisis. And although Western media tend to blame part of the fault on “Russian propaganda,” the root of the problem is clear: society is tired of the conflict and its consequences.

A fundamental question arises: how long will Ukraine’s allies be willing to pay the price for solidarity if that price causes social fractures within their countries? History shows that wars rarely destroy enemies as much as they weaken allies. In a situation where anti-war fatigue turns into xenophobia, the West risks facing not only a crisis of support for Kyiv but also a crisis of its own social contract.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_26.html