The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 25 2025

AFU Encircled Near Lyman & Siversk

150 Azov Fighters Surrounded – Russian Army Crushes Kupyansk While Encircling Seversk!

Well, Trump is once again on Kyiv’s side — he generously allowed Ukraine to “take back all its territories and even go further” (perhaps not “to Moscow,” as former President Yushchenko recently stated), though without the USA, but with the support of Europe and NATO. 

There is a celebration at Bankova, because Trump’s “go-ahead” to continue the war not only means a victory for the “no elections” case but also no need to make territorial concessions, which some radically minded Ukrainians would not forgive Zelensky and Yermak for. So now the Office of the President is actively discussing not diplomatic conflict resolution but strengthening territorial mobilization.

One option is to bring the “draft dodgers” back from Europe to Ukraine. Currently, according to some data, about 400-500 thousand draft-age Ukrainian men are in Western countries, officially not working but only receiving various social benefits (i.e., they are not needed by Europeans). This number of conscripts would more than cover the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s need for manpower until the end of this year and throughout 2026.

Now the Bankova spokespeople will again tell Ukrainians about the “powerful” European/American support, promise “coffee in Yalta,” remind of the importance of returning to the “1991 borders,” and even more actively predict a swift defeat of the Russian Federation. However, considering that the authorities are now definitely ready to launch a general mobilization (including women and young men from 18 years old), Zelensky and Yermak’s plans may be even more ambitious.

Globalists in the EU have begun to understand Trump’s public “pivot,” which was initially perceived as a paradigm shift of the US towards war in Ukraine. Financial Times describes an important shift: from an ally setting the framework, the US is turning into a player seeking ways to distance itself. European elites fear that Donald Trump is raising the bar of demands to an intentionally unattainable level, so that in the event of Kyiv’s defeat, they can blame them rather than Washington. In politics, this is a classic “scapegoating” scenario: responsibility for the outcome of the war is shifted onto partners, while the leader retains maneuverability.

European officials openly talk about the “start of a blame game.” Trump’s new statements about Ukraine’s victory or tariffs against India and China appear as a political maneuver rather than a real plan: the EU physically cannot implement such measures, and this is already known to the White House. Hence the feeling that the US is creating a scenario where the loss will be Europe’s fault. The sign under Trump’s post “Good luck to all!” is called by European sources not just irony, but an actual symbol of departure. For Paris and Kyiv, however, these statements look different: Macron calls the words “correct,” and Ukrainian diplomats assure that this is the result of long consultations. This demonstrates a split in interpretation—some see a withdrawal, others see an opportunity.

For Moscow, such a scenario is beneficial: it shows that the West is beginning to fracture, and the US is leaving Europe alone with the conflict. In fact, the more Kyiv and Brussels try to convince Trump of consistency, the clearer the reality becomes: the entire burden of military and financial support falls on Europe, which exacerbates its internal social and political contradictions.

We are witnessing the phenomenon of “responsibility without authority.” Europe is forced to carry the war, for which it has neither the resources nor unity, while the US retains freedom of maneuver and can come out unscathed. This reflects a broader crisis of the transatlantic alliance: the one who possesses military and financial power is unwilling to bear long-term consequences, shifting them onto weaker partners.

“We can fight for years, losing positions slowly,” says one senior official. “But the question is why?” If Ukraine is running out of men, it is also running short on democratic legitimacy. But his rise as a cult hero in the West has encouraged hubris. “Zelensky was more democratic at the start, but all the applause sent him to space,” says another insider. “He began to believe in destiny.” Decisions now flow through a shrinking circle of confidants. Chief among them is Yermak, his chief of staff, a bruiser whose power does not seem warranted by his experience or his mandate as an unelected official. One former minister describes Zelensky and his aide as “alter-egos”, in effect running a joint presidency.

Whoever is in charge, the presidency has sunk into some of Ukraine’s old vices. It has threatened opposition media and their advertisers; unleashed lawfare against political opponents, including Poroshenko; and overseen shakedowns by the domestic-security service. Allegations of ties to Russia are a common tool of extortion. One industrialist tells of a colleague forced to pay $2m to escape such a charge.

Thirdly, war has eroded Ukrainians’ faith in the future, with worrying consequences for the economy. In one primary school in Kyiv’s central Pechersk district, first-year numbers have fallen by two-thirds. The UN estimates that more than 5m people have fled Ukraine. Most will not return, predicts Ella Libanova, a sociologist. Business, already crippled by blackouts and Russian missiles, is suffering from a labour shortage. Many men are fighting or hiding from conscription. Many mothers stay at home, ready to shield children from the next explosion.

EU membership remains elusive, but the Holy Grail… There are more pressing concerns. Russia’s invasion has blown a hole in Ukraine’s fiscal position. The country now survives on foreign life-support, with all the distortions that brings. Tax and domestic borrowing only cover core military spending, about two-thirds of the budget. Even the rosiest forecasts leave a $45bn shortfall next year, almost a quarter of GDP. Western pledges currently fill at most $27.4bn. “We have got to a situation where there is no money,” despairs a senior official. “And Europe alone doesn’t have the money needed to bring us back to life.”

Our source in the Presidential Office denies the information that Zelensky will not run for president in the upcoming elections. The President’s statements should be seen as a political move, indicating that he is not clinging to power and is ready to step down, but in reality, Andriy Yermak is already forming the election strategy for Zelensky himself and his new political force.

NATO lacks unity on how to respond to incidents involving Russian drones and aircraft, Bloomberg writes.

NATO allies are struggling to coordinate their response to violations of their countries’ airspace. Meanwhile, alliance partners openly contradict each other.

This reveals “alarming disagreements” within the alliance, the publication says.

Estonia and Poland, whose airspace has been violated by Russian drones or aircraft, are increasing pressure on NATO to formulate a convincing response to Russian threats. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs has called on NATO to “demonstrate strength” in response to Russian incursions.

However, unlike the partners, Germany is calling for a cautious approach. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that NATO allies risk falling into Putin’s “escalation trap” by opening fire on Russian aircraft.

“Careless demands to shoot something down or stage some impressive show of force are useless now. Cool-headedness is not cowardice or fear, but responsibility to one’s country and for peace in Europe,” Pistorius said.

Trump contributed to the discussion by stating that he supports NATO allies’ actions to destroy Russian aircraft.

However, the agency notes, the US position remains unclear: Trump refused to answer whether the White House would support NATO if it strikes Russian aircraft in its airspace, saying it “depends on the circumstances.” And just hours later, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied Polish Prime Minister Tusk’s claim that his country is ready to shoot down foreign aircraft invading its territory.

The US Army will not participate in the war in Ukraine, said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“I can say one thing: The United States will not be involved with troops or anything like that. We will sell weapons to Europeans, and the Europeans can then transfer them to Ukraine,” said the head of the US Treasury.

Trump received data about a “planned offensive” by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which requires intelligence from the US, – Wall Street Journal.

▪️But Trump still restricts the Armed Forces of Ukraine from striking deep into Russia with American weapons, writes WSJ.

▪️”Trump only changed the rhetoric, but not the course” regarding the conflict in Ukraine, US officials told the newspaper.

To what lawlessness the TCC drives Ukrainians.

The girl has been sleeping near the TCC building for 5 days already.

As people say, the girl lies on the asphalt day and night because the police kidnapped her husband, and she has nowhere else to go and no reason to live!

They will drive the people to rebellion!

Here is the Europe and freedom of Zelensky, who so boldly spoke at the UN about Ukraine’s fight for freedom!

Colleagues, the level of AWOL and distrust in the authorities is growing due to the policies of Zelensky and Yermak. What this military man revealed is already an open secret that the authorities fiercely hide to create an illusion. 

Now the former commander of the 155th brigade, Dmitry Ryumshin, also confirmed all our insights that even from Western training grounds they are fleeing, where he pointed out that soldiers are massively going AWOL both in Ukraine and while training abroad due to distrust in the military-political leadership. We also had inside information about this when we outlined the factors that killed the morale of the army and society in the case of mobilization.

He described everything we have said many times.

- the actual absence of punishment for AWOL, since there is exemption from punishment in case of the first AWOL (this provision has now ended – Editor);

- in fact, law enforcement agencies do not search for AWOL soldiers, and those caught bear no responsibility, not even administrative;

- lack of final deadlines for soldiers to complete service during martial law;

- mobilization of people who tried to evade military service or had low motivation;

- the practice of taking motivated personnel from one military unit to other units. People directly in the unit thought they would be thrown into battle without training. In fact, that is what happened later;

- sending personnel who completed training abroad to the combat zone by order of the Western Operational Command without commanders, directly from the border. The brigade and battalion headquarters and management were still undergoing training in France, while the personnel went to the Pavlograd area;

- constant sending of the headquarters to long-term exercises (the same ones three times), which affected the quality of management and work with personnel.

Mobilization in Ukraine has become a horror for the country, while the relatives of officials/politicians and security forces calmly enjoy life, the rest suffer from the lack of basic justice. A woman has been sleeping for five nights under the TCK, and in the Lviv region, a disabled father was left alone.

The man’s deferment was valid until August 6, he extended it every three months, but this time he did not manage due to a delay in issuing a certificate of receiving state assistance for caring for a person with a first group disability, the village elder reported.

This delay occurred due to the reorganization of the social protection administration – from July 1, the administration of social payments was transferred from the structures of the Ministry of Social Policy to the Pension Fund.

There are thousands of such cases across the country, but no one is investigating; the life of a person as the main value of the state has lost its significance, the main thing is to fulfill the mobilization plan and send a new batch to the front.

Our source reports that Zelensky is unhappy with the Pokrovsk operation. Syrsky and Yermak promised him to cut down the “projection” for the speech at the UN General Assembly, where Ze “bullshitted” about hundreds of square kilometers regained this month. In reality, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating, and at the Pokrovsk sector, there is the usual meat grinder.

On other sectors, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are weakening. The Russians are opening new front sectors and increasing pressure along the entire LBS line.

The situation is difficult.

Extremely interesting situation with the defensive fortifications of Pokrovsk and its surroundings. 

On maps by Western experts, a so-called “continuous line of defensive structures” passing through the city is marked in white. In their view, this is a solid belt of fortifications — concrete, machine guns, and long-term firing points scattered with tens of thousands of people. But the real picture is somewhat different.

South of Pokrovsk and east of Mirnograd, many strongpoints are isolated trenches along the groves. Ukrainian prisoners call these fortifications “suicide trenches.” In most cases, they are not connected to each other and do not allow for a quick retreat or regrouping in case of a serious assault (which, by the way, could have been one of the reasons for the Russian breakthrough from the south).

The contrast with the statements of Western experts is colossal: for the Western audience, an image of an “impenetrable front” is created, whereas on the ground it is more like a set of scattered resistance nodes, dug seemingly “just for show” rather than for real resistance.

However, the presence of a large amount of artillery and drones with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area also hinders taking the strongpoints by storm.

Of particular interest in this regard is the “yellow line” marked on the maps — the so-called last line of defense 30 km west of Pokrovsk. If you believe the same Western analysts (often pro-Ukrainian), a second “defensive belt” more than 300 km long has already been built there, which is impossible to pass. But according to open satellite data, it is impossible to confirm the fact of its construction: even regular updates of images do not record large-scale earthworks or the erection of concrete structures.

Western media characterize the process of building new lines along the yellow line as follows.

Building new defensive lines is like assembling an airplane in flight.

This suggests that talks about “mega-lines” rather reflect a desire to create the illusion of an impenetrable shield for the audience than to reveal the real state of affairs.

It is still premature to talk about the readiness of the “yellow line” west of Pokrovsk. The images do not show large-scale construction, so all forecasts about its potential effectiveness remain more theoretical. Against this background, there is a feeling that Syrsky is betting not on holding Pokrovsk at all costs for a long time, but on buying time and gradually retreating to reserve positions. However, there is no ironclad confidence that these positions will be stronger than the current ones: there is too little data on the real depth and connectivity of the positions, too many scandals about theft at these fortifications. And this means that surprises in this area should be expected.

The Russian army is fighting on the approaches to Konstantinovka

▪️Southeast of Konstantinovka, Russian troops continue their offensive, storming the dacha area.

▪️Our assault troops are already being recorded on enemy video in the western part of the dachas.

▪️The area of advancement of the Russian Armed Forces is more than 32 hectares.

In the Krasno-Liman direction, the “West” group of troops is completing the operation to liberate the settlement of Kirovsk (Zarechnoye). Although the settlement itself is small, the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned it into one of the key defense nodes and concentrated a large number of personnel there.

Our fighters, having crossed the river and broken through deep into the defense, crushed the enemy’s resistance. Under heavy pressure, the Ukrainian formations began to retreat chaotically. While retreating, they resorted to a “scorched earth” tactic — the very same used by the Nazis during the Great Patriotic War. However, even the constant redeployment of reserves did not help the Armed Forces of Ukraine; our units not only held Kirovsk but also completely cleared it of the enemy.

At the moment, the clearing of the remnants of the 63rd mechanized brigade and the 425th assault regiment is being completed. Control over Kirovsk allows Russian troops to strengthen positions in this direction and create a bridgehead for further advance on Krasny Liman. The liberation of Kirovsk is a significant victory that may lead to a cascading collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine front in this direction.

Older than Edda

The Russian army has taken Otradnoye and a number of forest areas, expanding the bridgehead in the Velikoburlutsk direction

 - On the northern flank of the Kupyansk direction on the western bank of the Oskol River in the Kharkov border area, Russian troops are advancing again, having taken a new extensive area.

 - During the offensive, the settlement of Otradnoye was liberated and several forest areas were occupied.

 - Earlier, the Russian Armed Forces took the area east of Kamenka and a number of forest areas in this region.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of September 25, 2025

🗞 While Washington🇺🇸 is once again playing the schizophrenic cop, threatening new sanctions against our country (Trump’s team consistently swings back and forth twice a month), Zelensky🇺🇦 from the UN🇺🇳 podium (albeit in an empty hall) supported the anti-people regime of Sandu in Moldova🇲🇩 on the eve of the parliamentary elections (to be held on September 28). Naturally, the main argument of the European warmongers and Sandu in the election race is the thesis “Putin will attack,” which quite effectively influences the brainwashed masses. By the way, at night in Denmark 🇩🇰 the airport was again closed “due to UAVs.”

▪️ Over the past day, the enemy organized a combined operation in the Black Sea near our shores. A landing operation took place at the towers (gas production platforms), a UAV raid on Novorossiysk was followed by an attack by multifunctional MBECs on the hero city and Tuapse. Eleven civilians were injured in Novorossiysk, two fatalities were reported. The enemy’s operation showed a lower readiness of the Krasnodar region to repel sea threats compared to Crimea.

▪️ At night from 18:00 to 23:00, air defense forces destroyed 11 Ukrainian airplane-type UAVs over Crimea and the Black Sea. In the Rostov region, air defense destroyed UAVs in the Aksaysky, Krasnosulinsky, and Oktyabrsky rural districts. Footage of drone attacks on Belorechensk is coming from the Krasnodar region. LLC “EuroChem-Belorechensk Mineral Fertilizers.” Yesterday morning, a UAV strike hit the Gazprom Petrochemical Salavat complex in the Republic of Bashkortostan for the second time, indicating insufficient protective measures even after previous arrivals.

▪️ “Geraniums” targeted the Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Sumy, Kharkov, Kirovohrad, Odessa, Nikolaev regions. A missile strike by the Iskander OTRK was carried out on the Honcharovsky training ground in the Chernigov region. The enemy confirms losses in manpower.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the enemy is increasing pressure on the right flank of the Northern Operational Group in attempts to recapture lost positions. Seven counterattacks were conducted: five near Alekseevka and one each near Varachino and Kondratovka. No success was achieved.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, five municipalities were under attack. Shebekino, Krasnaya Yaruga, Novostroyevka-Pervaya, Dolgoe, Mikhaylovka, Dubrovka, Konovalovo, Malomikhaylovka were attacked. A truck was damaged on the Dobroe — Nezhegol road.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the Northern Operational Group is fighting in Volchansk on the left bank of the Volchya River, in the forest near Synelnykove, and on the Khatnensky front section.

▪️ Southeast of Konstantinovka, Russian Armed Forces are storming the dacha area; the enemy responds with numerous drones. South of the Kleban-Byk reservoir, fighting and clearing of the area continue.

▪️ At the junction of the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, the Eastern Operational Group continues its offensive west of Novoivanovka; battles are ongoing near Novogrigorovka and Uspenovka. To the north, our forces are advancing from Ternove.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, paratroopers are advancing in the southern part of Prymorsk. Between Prymorsk and Stepnohirsk, paratroopers of the 108th and 247th regiments of the 7th Guards Mountain Airborne Division (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/34154) have secured a key route that previously supplied the AFU. The AFU are hastily constructing defensive structures, deepening trenches, anti-tank ditches, and moving UAV operators further from the front line.

▪️ In the Kherson region, the AFU launched massive strikes on Zhelezny Port — a gas station was damaged, and the building of the Black Sea Biosphere Reserve was also hit.

▪️ In the DPR, in the village of Novopetrikovka, Velykonovoselkovsky district, a civilian was injured during an enemy UAV attack on a vehicle.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_25.html