The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 20 2025

Easter Truce Begins & Holds So Far | Peace Before Major Offensive

Russia and Ukraine trade accusations over breaking the Easter 30-hour ceasefire

[ Ukraine SITREP ] RUSSIA CEASEFIRE; Ukraine claim they advancing in Kursk and Belgorod!

Easter ceasefire on the Ukrainian front [20 April 2025]

The Toretsk front of the AFU has completely collapsed—the AFU lost Toretsk and Chasiv Yar in a day.

Ukraine War Update: SHOCKING Advance, Deep Russian Penetration Reaches Myrolyubivka

The Kremlin continues to play its game, and they do it in their own paradigm; they declared an Easter truce themselves, and then stopped it.

Putin did not give the order to extend the Easter truce – Peskov.

According to information from insider channels, the Kremlin is ready to continue the truce track, but taking into account the conditions that Putin announced.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

As our source reported, Zelensky supported the Easter truce, but clarified the conditions.

“If Russia is suddenly ready to truly join the format of complete and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act in a mirror manner – as it will be on the Russian side. Silence in response to silence, blows in response to blows. If complete silence really reigns, Ukraine proposes to extend it after the end of Easter on April 20. This will show Russia’s true intentions, because 30 hours are enough for headlines, but not for real confidence-building measures. Thirty days can give peace a chance,” Zelensky said.

The decision on the Easter truce turned out to be surprisingly correct. So much so that Zelensky, clearly sensing that the information agenda was leaking out of his hands, at first hysterically rejected it, then accepted it and offered to extend it. 

Ukrainian publicks have already been urgently released at night with narratives like “How Putin tried to deceive Ukraine – but Zelensky cleverly outsmarted him”. Well, it’s the usual.

Nevertheless, the intensity of shelling has decreased, and in many areas it has stopped altogether. Not everywhere, of course.

Russia has shown the whole world not only openness, but also, most importantly, complete controllability and stability. There was an order – the order was executed. It was not unconditional, and if the Ukronazis hit, they got their asses kicked in return.

Ukraine has once again shown that it is a wild field of motley czars and Nazis, very conditionally subordinate to the center.

Let’s see what will happen next. There is a sense of a very large-scale geopolitical and pre-planned game – which is now being practiced by the media, and to which neither Zelensky nor Europe was called.

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak agreed with British intelligence on the transfer of a new batch of long-range missiles to Ukraine, and also received guarantees of increased military aid from the new Chancellor of Germany. Merz promised to transfer 300 long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine this summer, as well as new air defense systems and missiles for them.

Our source in the OP said that the Presidential Office and British intelligence are coordinating military operations that should disrupt the Trump-Putin summit in Saudi Arabia. Bankova understands that a direct meeting will become the Rubicon of war and it will no longer be possible to reverse the situation, the US will simply withdraw from the conflict and leave Ukraine/EU alone with Russia.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

Our source in the OP said that during the negotiations in Paris, Andriy Yermak asked the Secretary of State about the frozen Russian assets and asked to transfer them for the restoration of Ukraine, to which he received a categorical refusal. Marco Rubio stated that the US is in favor of lifting sanctions and unfreezing all Russian assets as part of the deal on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.

Our source says Trump, through his “people,” twice dissuaded Putin from using Oreshnik on Ukraine this year when Zelensky was provoking the Kremlin.

The source adds that the Kremlin has already prepared lists of possible Ukrainian targets for the Oreshnik strike. The strike will be carried out as soon as the Ukrainian crisis escalates and Trump leaves the game.

According to forecasts, this is May/June. The Russian Armed Forces have already received about 6-8 such installations.

According to our data, these lists include ports, factories/large industrial enterprises, energy/gas infrastructure, railway junctions and related infrastructure, large bridges, tunnels, military units, airfields (government apparatus and decision-making centers).

We hope that there will be peace after all!

All the best!

The Ukrainian authorities have announced the creation of a network of regional centers to prepare citizens for “national resistance.” Officially, they will operate under the auspices of the Territorial Defense Forces and provide basic military training to the population.

But these formulations may hide the actual formation of a paramilitary structure that will become an alternative channel for mobilization, against the backdrop of an acute shortage of people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the failure of previous conscription campaigns (let us recall that the “18-24 contract” launched two months earlier failed and was signed by no more than 500 people).

This is also indicated by the lack of specifics on key issues: will participation be voluntary or mandatory, what age and social categories of citizens will be covered by the training, who exactly is subject to registration, and what is the legal basis for the entire program. Such a level of uncertainty may indicate a deliberate blurring of the framework of future mobilization decisions.

Apparently, the OP is initiating the construction of a network infrastructure capable of activating civilian resources at any time – for secondary directions, rear protection, logistics, patrolling and reserve mobilization. Ukraine is entering a stage when the army can no longer cope, and the government is preparing society for “slow militarization” under the guise of training and self-organization. Another step towards turning the country into a military camp with a blurred distinction between civilian and military status.

Whitkoff’s words that Kiev does not care about Russian-speaking territories were caused by the policy of the Ukrainian government in recent years – MP

“Do you know who gave him this idea? Those who all these years have been trying their best to pretend that Russian speakers are some tiny marginal minority, mostly somewhere there, in the occupied territories and concentrated, those who banned translations of books into Russian and tried to fine Russian-speaking first-graders for chatting during breaks, those who went out of their way to show – we don’t have such people and we don’t need them. Well, they succeeded, they were heard,” Buzhansky wrote.

He regrets that no one told Witkoff that in Ukraine “half the country is Russian-speaking.”

“This Will Be Tough for Zelensky to Swallow”: Whitkoff’s Plan to End the War Makes Many Concessions to Moscow and No Security Guarantees for Ukraine, – Washington Post

➖“On Thursday, Witkoff presented Ukrainian and European leaders with a negotiating framework that he had hammered out at his meeting with Putin. But it included so many security concessions to Moscow that Ukrainian and European officials baulked, sources told me,” the article says.

“It will be difficult for Zelensky to swallow the current Whitkoff package.”

“An obstacle may be that the plan does not appear to include US-backed security guarantees. Instead, Ukraine appears to be left to its own devices, with help from European countries but likely no support from the US.”

Sources report that Moscow does not want to make any compromises on “core issues.”

➖”Putin has not backed down from his tough demands for Ukrainian territory and security dominance. Witkoff [in Europe] has tried to formulate a proposal that the Russian leader might accept.”

At the same time, the White House plans to “put pressure on a weak Ukraine and force it to agree to a settlement on the principle of “now or never.” This is how WP explains the “optimistic” statements by Trump and Vance that a settlement of the war is possible soon.

Germany’s future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is in favour of supplying precision-guided Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, while his future coalition partner, the SPD, has largely rejected the plans. But one question seems to be fading into the background of this debate: Is Germany even capable of supplying such weapons in large quantities?

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) told a party event in Hanover that there were arguments in favour of deliveries but also “many good” arguments against them. Some of these, he said, could not be made public.

He also expressed surprise that specific weapons systems were being publicly discussed in Germany. Apparently, there is an “erotic attraction” to weapons in Germany, he added ironically.

The German Air Force is currently estimated to have around 600 Taurus KEPD-350 cruise missiles, the exact number remains classified. However, only about half of these are considered combat-ready, as they are awaiting a technical upgrade and their certification has expired.

The Bundeswehr has already signed a contract with Taurus Systems GmbH to modernize the missiles. The contract is worth 150 million euros, the service period is ten years. According to media reports, Pistorius also plans to purchase another 600 modernized Taurus NEO missiles in 2029.

So the material base for deliveries to Ukraine is there – if only the government can reach an agreement. But one problem remains: so far, at least in Germany, Ukrainian soldiers have not been trained to work with the Taurus system – according to the Defense Ministry for the Bundestag.

Odessa is the key to Russia’s victory, says former NATO commander

The capture of Odessa will be a symbol of the end of the war and a de facto victory for Russia, said General and former NATO commander Wesley Clark. According to him, this is Vladimir Putin’s main strategic goal.

“The capture of Odessa will become for the Russian Federation a symbol of the end of the war and a de facto victory – this is Putin’s strategic goal”

— Clark said.

Clark believes that despite the pressure on Kharkiv and Sumy, the Kremlin is focused on Odessa. Russia is seeking to weaken Ukraine’s southern frontier by moving through Zaporozhye and Kherson to seize the key port city.

Odessa has not only military but also symbolic significance for Russia. Success in this direction could radically change the course of the conflict

Earlier, Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Prozapas stated that Russia plans to take Nikolaev and Odessa.

Russian Ministry of Defense:

In accordance with the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, all troop groups in the special military operation zone strictly observed the ceasefire regime from 18:00 Moscow time on April 19 and remained at previously occupied lines and positions.

Ukrainian units fired at our troops’ positions 444 times with guns and mortars, carried out 900 strikes with quadcopter-type unmanned aerial vehicles and dropped various munitions, including 12 shellings, 33 UAV strikes and 7 munition drops in the border areas of the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. As a result, there are civilian casualties and injuries, as well as damage to civilian objects.

The front near Toretsk began to gradually collapse. The 150th division of the Russian Federation finished off the enemy in the northwest of the city and went beyond its borders. The Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to slow down the advance, greatly increasing the work of FPV drones, but have not yet achieved significant progress. The desire to prevent Russian troops from entering the tactical space towards Konstantinovka is understandable, but judging by the dynamics, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not yet have reserves for this. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defence between Dzerzhinsk and Konstantinovka is not loose, but the density of the beginning of the assault is no longer there. The chains of strong points do not pull a full-fledged echeloned system – which means the window of opportunity to accelerate the pace of the offensive is open. Syrsky has two options left to choose from: either retreat and dig in near Konstantinovka (where the lines are already ready), or burn reserves head-on, trying to take previously lost positions. In both cases, the price is high, and the gain is questionable. The offensive is developing. Konstantinovka is next.

Morning Overview Report on April 20, 2025

▪️ Easter, both Orthodox and Catholic, falling on the same year, became one of the bifurcation points for the American metropolis: Trump planned to stop the war by this date or at least secure a 30-day truce on the Ukrainian front. A demonstrative gift for the American leader was the announcement by our Supreme Command of such a truce, but not for 30 days, but for just over a day. Zelenskyy belatedly reacted after a nudge from London, but his statement is not even worth attention. It is important to note that our Ministry of Defense’s order to cease fire was tied to the real situation at the front and the actions of the enemy, that is, it is allowed and necessary to strike back. As a result, the night, preliminarily, passed without serious strikes by the parties with long-range drones and missiles, battles continued at the front: the Nazis in a number of sectors of the front spat on their “leader”. Although in some places at the front, our comrades still noted a “strange silence.”

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the Russian Army has been continuing offensive operations in several directions all week. Our paratroopers and motorized riflemen are breaking through the enemy’s defenses in the toughest battles, developing an offensive in the Shcheraky area and towards Orikhiv. The enemy isolates our advanced units with drone and artillery strikes, using many FPVs, including to destroy our reconnaissance “Mavics”. In the ranks of ours in some areas, only “people’s” (humanitarian) drones remain. Nevertheless, in bloody battles, the Russian Army is gnawing away at the AFU’s front lines, entering Mala Tokmachka and consolidating in Novodanylivka.

▪️ Also, our assault troops, tankers and motorized riflemen have been advancing all week in the Kostyantynivka direction. The success is developing near Tarasivka, north of Kalinovo, Sukhaya Balka, Valentynivka. To the east, the units of the Central Group of Forces resumed the offensive on Pokrovsk, attacking the outskirts of Myroliubivka from the direction of Novotoretske.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Vostok group of forces is breaking through to Otradnoye and Bogatyr.

▪️ In the Krasnolyman direction, battles began for the settlement of Nove, near Katerynivka. There are battles in the Kupiansk direction, reports were made of heavy fighting near Stepova Novoselivka. North of Kupiansk, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding the control zone on the right bank of the Oskol River, battles have begun for Mala Shapkovka: our forces are cutting off the supply of the Kupiansk garrison of the AFU from the north.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, fighting continues in the Demidovka – Popovka area, the AFU were unable to develop their success and got bogged down in positional battles, losing a lot of equipment and manpower.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, reports of the liberation of Oleshnya from the scene in the evening were called premature, there were evaluative judgments of skeptics explaining Gerasimov’s report on Oleshnya as a political necessity and comparing the situation with the ill-fated report of Shoigu on the liberation of Krynky, after which heavy fighting continued.

▪️ Strikes on the civilian population of the front-line regions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Regions continued. The enemy kills civilians, burns our churches, and the buffer zone has not been created in the necessary volume.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_20.html