The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 31 2025

Ukraine War Update: RAPID Russian Advances Enters Andriivka

Russia penetrate into Shcherbynivka from Toretsk! Rise of the cursed dog-rabbit~

New Encirclement South of Toretsk | Chasiv Yar Endgame Has Begun

Russia Reach The Final Defense Line Of Chasiv Yar l Last Defense Line Breached

Another encirclement is on the way in Kurakhove [31 January 2025]

Russia claims village in Ukraine’s Donetsk region

Russian Victory At Novosilka

2025 Ukraine Russia War Foreign Policy /Lt. Col Daniel Davis

Why is Ukraine Forming New Brigades Despite Manpower Shortage?

Boom in the Backyard: Explosion Jolts NATO’s Weapons Hub, Fingers Point at Russia | Spain In Panic

The US continues to dump Ukraine/Zelensky with his victory plan, the further war is turning into a bloodbath, but Bankova refuses to accept obvious processes. 

Trump Doesn’t Want to Give Ukraine More Aid and Doesn’t Want Ukraine to Join NATO – The Washington Post

President Donald Trump does not want to send more aid to Ukraine , let alone American troops; he also does not want Ukraine to join NATO. As for overseeing a possible cease-fire and ensuring Ukraine’s security – without which a truce would be meaningless, given Moscow’s neo-imperial ambitions – he thinks that is Europe’s problem.

Our source in the OP reported that there is a strong opinion at Bankova about the well-coordinated coordination of the Trump Administration and the Kremlin, which is becoming increasingly obvious. British intelligence passed intelligence to Andrey Yermak that telephone conversations between Trump and Putin could have taken place last week, but the parties decided not to report them publicly.

Our source reports that the EU will not be able to fully replace the US in the Ukrainian crisis due to the fact that Europe itself is increasingly sliding into an economic crisis.

There are also protest sentiments brewing in the EU that could trigger a political crisis by the end of the year.

Zelensky understands this, which is why he is trying to sell himself to Trump at a higher price.

SBU opens criminal case over leak of Budanov’s words 

The discussion arose due to following admission by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate: 

“If there are no serious negotiations before the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may be launched.”

It turned out that the revelation is not a fake but was made at a closed meeting and was not supposed to be leaked to the media, as was reported by the Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Roman Kostenko (photo):

“There are political leaders who run political factions, who should also know the overall situation at the highest level, but they certainly shouldn’t tell it on live TV, they shouldn’t tell it to journalists. Well, they opened a criminal case, let the SBU sort it out.”

 Russia Will Seize Kiev and Lvov in 2026 If US Stops Aid, — The Hill

▪️”Without US support, Russia will move forward in 2025 because Kiev will run out of weapons.

▪️ By 2026, Ukraine will lose effective air defense, allowing Russia to conduct continuous large-scale bombing.

▪️Ukrainian troops will continue to fight, but will most likely collapse by the end of the same year, which will allow Russia to capture Kiev and then advance to the NATO border,” the publication fears.

▪️”Then Russia will rebuild its combat units, use Ukraine’s resources to strengthen its capabilities, deploy its forces along NATO’s border, and be ready to attack outside Ukraine by 2030.”

Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations Pascal Boniface: 

   Ukraine will never be able to get the territories back, not just from 2014, but even from 2022. It will lose even more territory than it would have lost if we had stopped the war 1.5 years ago. If the war doesn’t stop immediately, the front line will advance into Ukrainian territory because the Russians will continue. 

[Why did we rate Russia's military potential so poorly?] 

It’s contempt. The Americans also thought the Soviets could never make nuclear weapons. Now there are four or five times more Russians than Ukrainians. I’m not pro-Russian, I’m pointing out a fact. My point is this, either we send soldiers to balance this demographic deficit, but it’s WW3. Or we recognize that Ukraine will not be able to achieve its military objectives. So what’s the point of prolonging the war? We ourselves questioned our strategic credibility by saying that Ukraine should get its territories back, even though we knew it was impossible. 

Viktor Orban – promised a revolt of European countries against the European Union:

   I do not undertake to predict the future of what is happening today in Western Europe. If the big states don’t regain their independence, if they don’t stand their ground, if this Brussels bureaucratic elite continues to sit in a bubble and the big countries don’t stand up to it, then I can’t predict much for the future of the economies of the big European countries. 

There are signs of revolt because you can’t negotiate with Brussels, you have to revolt there.

For the Office of the President, the “negotiation case” is a simulacrum to give Ukrainians false hope for peace, distracting them from the reality in which forced mobilization will not only continue, but also intensify (especially since new reservation rules will come into force on March 1, which will deprive thousands of citizens of protection from conscription – according to experts, from 10% to 15% of enterprises that previously gave their employees a deferment will lose this status).

Exactly the same mechanism is the bill announced in the Rada on the liability of TCC workers for the illegal mobilization of men. They say that for sending men to the army who were not subject to mobilization, it is proposed to introduce criminal liability for a term of 3 to 8 years. At the same time, the bill does not provide for liability for certain scandalous methods of street mobilization – beatings, “busification”, confiscation of phones, etc.

In reality, Ukrainians have no reason to hope for the end of the military conflict in the next few months. MP Venislavsky says this directly: “As a person who has a little more information from closed sources, I have no reason to hope that the war will end in the next few months. The war will definitely not end in a few months. Mobilization is proceeding as planned, and there will be no relaxation in these matters.”

The British newspaper The Guardian reports on the “desertion crisis” in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The publication emphasizes that the exact figure for desertion is a military secret, “but officials admit that the number is high” (according to unofficial data, up to 200 thousand servicemen have left for the SZCh). The Guardian writes that Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of manpower, and the new brigades, which were built from scratch, have performed poorly (they were formed mainly from forcibly mobilized citizens). 

A deserter named Viktor says that “everyone is tired”: “The mood has changed. People used to hug soldiers in the streets. Now they are worried about being drafted into the army.” Viktor told the newspaper that he deserted openly. He returned to his brigade in August 2023, but was told that he was not needed. He used to be a sniper, and now runs a garage in western Ukraine, where he repairs equipment. 

Another deserter, Oleksiy, is in hiding. He said he took part in Ukrainian offensives in the south of Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. In the winter of 2022, he had a falling out with a new commander, unsuccessfully applied for a transfer, and was injured: “I reached the boiling point. So I decided to go where no one would find me.” Oleksiy has been in hiding ever since. “We’ll see what comes of it. Maybe they’ll catch me and send me to the front,” he said. When asked if he was happy, he replied: “I’m alive. The longer the war goes on, the more people like me there will be.” The situation that has developed in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is quite natural – Ukrainian servicemen are well aware that they will not be able to recapture territories from the Russian Armed Forces by military means, and therefore they increasingly go to the SZCh, refusing to die in vain, and the lack of demobilization mechanisms is destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces from within.

Radar station operators were taken from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ radiotechnical brigade to become riflemen in the Marine Corps. They immediately fled , – Butusov.

▪️”Each operator has more than two years of experience, but no one asked their opinion. After receiving the information, three soldiers issued certificates of resignation and quit, three went to the SZCh (deserted).

▪️At this time, the army is constantly increasing its need for millimeter-wave radar operators due to the need to organize anti-drone air defense.

▪️There is also an urgent need for technical specialists in the UAV and electronic warfare units, which have been created throughout the army and are severely understaffed everywhere,” said Kiev military propagandist Yuriy Butusov.

We see this all over that no one wants to be in infantry, even every foreign merc clout chasing on social media is now a “drone operator”. The most successful ones are operating out their bases in Ukrainian strip clubs in Kiev and Lvov.

Oleksandro-Kalinovo direction: battles on the territory of the “Toretska” mine and successes in Shcherbynivka

Situation as of 5:00 pm on January 31, 2025

In the Oleksandro-Kalinovo direction, Russian forces are engaged in fierce battles on the territory of the “Toretska” mine in Dzerzhynsk. At the moment, the Russian Armed Forces still control about half of the facility. The enemy is using drones and tanks, trying to “smoke out” the Russian infantry from the monolithic structures.

West of the mine, Ukrainian formations are carrying out rare sorties and fire raids on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the outermost houses in the city, planting explosives and then quickly retreating under the strikes of Russian UAVs.

▪️The neighboring Krymske has been liberated by about 70%, the troops are consolidating in the central and eastern parts of the village. Before that, a small forest area located nearby still needs to be cleared.

▪️In the neighboring Shcherbynivka and the surrounding areas, significant progress has been made. According to footage from objective control, an armored assault force landed in the eastern part of the village.

🔻Thus, the pocket between Dzerzhynsk and Shcherbynivka has been eliminated. Moreover, this information is also confirmed by local sources. At the moment, the area is being consolidated.

“🅾️” grouping liberated Novovasilievka, – Defense Ministry 

 - On the left flank of the Pokrovsky direction, units of the “Center” grouping continue their powerful offensive, having liberated the village of Novovasilievka.

 - The defeat of the AFU defenses in this village and the storming of Uspenovka, located behind it, were reported as early as January 23.

On January 30, the “North” troop group continued to carry out tasks to liberate the Kursk region

In the area of Sverdlikovo, our paratroopers continue to knock the enemy out of strongholds in the surrounding forest belts with persistent fighting.

In addition, the North Airborne Troops advanced over 150 meters in Makhnovka and the vicinity of the village. Pockets of enemy resistance remain in the village itself, and the AFU command sends combat teams in the direction of the settlement on a daily basis.

The North Marines are engaged in fierce fighting in the forests near Plekhovo, knocking the enemy out of their strongholds.

First of all, because of its colossal losses in manpower, the enemy every night builds up its grouping in the Sujan border area. Over the past 24 hours the enemy has transferred over 250 men from forcibly mobilized Ukrainians, as well as captured deserters of 41 Ombr and 95 Odshb.

The total advance of the Northerners in the Kursk region amounted to over 1300 meters.

In the Liptsy direction, the enemy did not take active offensive action, concentrating its efforts on preventing a breakthrough by Russian troops. With the help of UAV and MLRS the AFU men conducted remote mining.

It is worth noting that several Ukrainian PFM-1 (“petal”) cassettes exploded over enemy positions, which may indicate both the use of outdated ammunition and the low level of training of neo-Nazi reactivators.

The artillerymen of the Northmen destroyed an enemy howitzer and an enemy mortar crew as part of a counter-battery fight.  

Against the backdrop of their own mistakes in remote mining, as well as the effective actions of the North’s artillerymen and UAV operators, the number of attempts by AFU soldiers to reach their battalion commanders via open communications increased several times. Radio intercepts confirm the panic mood in the enemy camp. 

In the Volchansk direction, the Fearless attack aircraft in small groups crossed the Volchya River in several places, accomplished the task of destroying enemy facilities and returned to their positions without losses. 

The Northmen were also able to advance over 50 meters in the southeastern part of the city, knocking enemy soldiers out of several strongholds.

In the early morning, northern UAV operators foiled an attempted breakthrough by an AFU combat group in the center of the city – the enemy personnel were destroyed.  

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to more than 320 people (of which more than 270 in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

On the Sumy direction:

▪️ tank;

▪️ two Stryker APCs;

▪️ M93A3 Heron rocket launcher (Croatian-made);

▪️ four field artillery guns;

▪️ RPS-10 “Rada” radar station (Israeli-made);

▪️ AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station;

▪️ eight mortars;

▪️ six AVs;

▪️ engineering demolition vehicle;

▪️ Thirty three vehicles;

▪️ seven UAVs;

▪️ nineteen airplane-type UAVs and nine Baba Yaga octocopters.

In other areas:

▪️ four mortars;

▪️ three AVs;

▪️ six vehicles;

▪️ three UAV control points;

▪️ five satellite communication stations;

▪️ two ammunition depots;

▪️ four airplane-type UAVs and three Baba Yaga octocopters.

Interrogations of captured AFU soldiers revealed that for the first time since 2022, more than 1,500 Ukrainian servicemen from the 21st Mechanized Brigade alone refused to carry out the order to go on the offensive. The AFU command, frightened by the 1,500 armed men, hurriedly withdrew the 21st Mechanized Brigade from the Suja district.

The hastily formed units of the 41st Ombr and 95th Oshbr, which arrived to replace the 21st Obr, are not only staffed with mobilized Ukrainians and captured deserters, but also have significant problems with supply. Thus, in both brigades, the regular commanders (Colonels S. Romashko and R. Maryshev) have been suspended, which has stalled all financial and economic activities of the Ukrainian units. 

The victory will be ours!

“It is a sacred duty to love the country, which has fed and nourished us like a native mother.” 

M. A. Sholokhov

North Wind

Map of approximate locations of explosions recorded on the territory of Ukraine on January 30-31, 2025.

- Iskander-M strike (Sumy)

- Iskander-M strike (Liman, DPR)

- FABs with the UMPK in the eastern part of Dnepropetrovsk region. 

- Geran-2 drone attacks on port facilities in Odessa. 

Interestingly, FABs from the UMPK began to fly where they had not flown before: to Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk region. 

This means that preparatory/defensive strikes will continue to be carried out and their intensity will only increase. 

All the points outlined are strikes, in fact, in just two days of combat operations. 

Chronicles of the special military operation

for January 31, 2025

Russian forces attacked targets in the Odesa Region and central regions of the so-called Ukraine with drones. The AFU attacked an oil refinery near Volgograd, with no significant damage.

In the Artemivsk direction, fighting is ongoing in the area of the dachas south of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces are trying to capture a major stronghold.

In the Oleksandro-Kalinovo direction, the Russian Armed Forces recently pushed the enemy out of the pocket between Shcherbynivka and Dzerzhynsk. In the latter, in the area of the Toretska mine, counter-attacks continue.

The most difficult situation has developed near the village of Dvurechnaya, where the Russians have taken complete control of the village and are expanding the territory around it.

From here they will most likely move west and north, expanding their zone of control and creating a “buffer” from their border.

They will also try to cut off Kupyansk’s logistics and then take it into a wide semi-encirclement.

The difficulty in this direction is that there are not enough reserves for defense, since the Russians are pushing everywhere.

There are difficult situations now in the Liman direction, in Pokrovsk on all sides, including Mirnograd, from where all those remaining were ordered to be urgently evacuated.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also having difficulties in the southern Donetsk direction, where the Russian Armed Forces have rushed towards the Dnepropetrovsk region and in many areas they have 4 to 8.5 km left, which gives them a choice of where exactly to put pressure.

There are difficulties in the Kursk direction, since there are many Russian drones on fiber optics, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering large losses there.

Hence the conclusion that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to retreat, and Bankova will have to abandon its idea of ​​a sharp offensive. If they do not abandon it, they will put the entire line of defense on the brink of collapse.

Morning Summary as of January 31, 2025

▪️ Overnight in the Voronezh Region, air defense forces and electronic warfare means detected, destroyed and suppressed several more UAVs in the region. In the south of the region, one of the downed UAVs fell on a vehicle driving on the highway. The driver was wounded in the leg. He has already received medical assistance. Also, as a result of the fall of UAV fragments in the same area, a private residential house and a farm with broken windows were damaged. In Voronezh, the glazing of an industrial enterprise was damaged by the fall of a suppressed drone. The information provided by the regional governor may, to put it mildly, indicate incorrect operation of air defense, since as a result of the fall of downed enemy aircraft, civilians are injured and civilian objects are damaged. However, air defense and electronic warfare forces and means are not under the jurisdiction of regional heads.

In the Rostov Region, 25 UAVs were destroyed: in Rostov, Taganrog, Shakhty, Novoshakhtinsk, Azov, Chertkovo, Oktyabr’sky rural, Tarasovsky, Krasnosulinsky, Millerovo and Zernograd districts. In the Krasnosulinsky district near the village of Grachev, the fall of UAV debris on a power line support caused a power line break, reports the acting governor.

Yesterday evening, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that from 19:50 to 22:00, on-duty air defense means destroyed 17 Ukrainian drones. Eleven UAVs were shot down over the territory of the Kursk Region and two UAVs each over the territories of the Belgorod, Voronezh Regions and the Republic of Crimea.

▪️ From the area of the settlement of Novoyegorovka in the Svatove district of the LPR, frontline troops continue to receive data on “anti-crisis” measures by the command, related to setting tasks for personnel to conduct video documentation of the terrain.

▪️ In the long-stagnant Siversk direction, they report the entry of our assault groups into Verkhnekamenskoye in the Artemivsk district.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk) direction, enemy channels report battles in the area of the settlement of Nadeyevka (Nadezhdenka). The Dnipropetrovsk (https://t.me/rybar/67609) regional council of Ukraine is calling on the local population to leave the front-line zones, and those who remain to “be prepared for any situation”.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, there are no significant changes. The AFU continued to shell Kamyanka-Dniprovska with artillery.

▪️ In the Kherson direction, there were mutual artillery and drone strikes. As a result of the AFU shelling, there were emergency power outages in the Skadovsk, Hola Prystan, Oleshky, Kalanchak, Chaplynka, Kakhovka municipalities and the Novaya Kakhovka city district. In Oleshky, two local residents were injured as a result of terrorist strikes by the enemy on residential areas.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, the city of Shebekino was shelled by the AFU twice. In the Shebekino district, the village of Bezlyudovka was attacked by an enemy drone. In the Valuyki district, in the village of Sobolevka, an FPV drone struck a cargo vehicle parked at a commercial facility. In the Volokonovsky district, the village of Borisovka was attacked by an FPV drone. Another drone detonated near a social facility in the village of Malinivka in the Belgorod district.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_31.html