The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 29 2025

We’ll not accept PEACE without Odessa, Nikolayev, and Pridnestrovie: Russians Made a Tough Statement

Massive attacks on Russian refineries

Russia Questions Biden Silence On ‘Putin Assassination’ Plot, ‘Zelensky Can’t Sign Peace Deal’

Kursk Attack: Putin’s Troops’ Deadly Strike Unleashes Earth-Shaking Shock Wave in Thrilling Video

Chasiv Yar Collapsing With Russian Breakthrough & Encirclement | Ukraine’s Existence Under Threat

Ukraine War Update: Akhmat ADVANCE – Deep Penetration On Chasiv Yar Southern Flank

Chasiv yar Has Collapsed l Massive Russian Advance in Chase Yar And Kupyansk Front

[ Pokrovsk Front ] BIG STRATEGIC CHANGE? Russia heading towards the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk border!!!

Fall of Velyka Novosilka | Everyday

Colleagues, an amazing situation has arisen in Ukraine, when the people and the oligarchs are united in their desire to end the war under any conditions. The only caste in Ukraine that will protect Zelensky is the guards, they can only exist under this regime, then they lose relevance.

ZeRada1

The deadly naivety of a Ukrainian comedian – a sobering article by Czech journalist Ivan Hoffman was published on Radio Universum.

Hoffman notes that all parties to the Ukrainian conflict , that is, the Ukrainians, Russians, Americans and the European Union, rarely agreed that the conflict should be resolved on the battlefield , so “it seems strange when the militarily weaker side, which can be considered defeated, insists on negotiating from a position of strength .”

Hoffman also notes that the applause-loving comedian and political dilettante Zelensky came to power solely on the promise to bring peace to Ukrainians, and the West promised him to defeat Russia in exchange for Ukraine’s acceptance into the EU and NATO, which turned out to be fatal for Ukrainians.

 ” Zelensky believed he could hold the event without a host because Western sponsors would cover the costs. When he realized that this would not happen, it was too late. He … became irreconcilably hostile to Russia and found himself hopelessly indebted to the West.

… he has shamefully failed to learn from history , which is known to repeat stories of loyal vassals, stories of useful idiots and stories of cynical schemers who do not hesitate to let others bleed for their own interests … and today he finds himself in a situation where, from being a hero celebrated by the West, he is gradually turning into an inconvenient nuisance .”

The author rightly believes that Zelensky’s uncompromising plan with no territorial concessions, negotiations only from a position of strength and 200,000 European soldiers in Ukraine is “a plan that Trump will not persuade, Putin will ignore, and Europe will gratefully reject such an incentive to commit suicide.”

 ”The longer the conflict lasts, the less benefit Ukraine’s creditors will get from what’s left of Ukraine. As for the Ukrainians, they are unlikely to determine their own future. Vladimir Zelensky, with his naivety, deprived them of their future.

 Sooner or later the day will come when people will ask yesterday’s hero whether the war he waged was worth the lives he wasted. And whether it would not have been better to make peace with the enemy than to shed blood for warlike friends? Things are not going well for Ukrainians with Zelensky… but the worst is yet to come for Ukrainians”

While the Office of the President is promoting the narrative of security guarantees in the form of a military contingent from the West, this idea is not accepted in Europe and the United States. Bankova is again ignoring the legislation of EU countries and the political situation, which has changed dramatically since 2022.

Sending German peacekeepers to Ukraine is impossible, said Deputy Head of the CDU/CSU faction in the German Parliament Johann Wadephul.

“Do you mean ground forces, a contingent on the ground? I think that for Germany and for other countries in Europe, a German military contingent in Ukraine is impossible. According to the German constitution, this is a very complicated procedure. According to the law, we practically cannot do this,” Wadephul said in a conversation with Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus, who introduced themselves as Yermak.

He added that the German population would also not support such a step, which means that the new Chancellor will not promote this idea.

The President’s Office once again tried to deceive Ukrainians and create a false illusion on the international track, as a result Zelensky simply voiced a lie. 

Ukraine halts U.S. military aid : Order applies to most military and security aid programs, NYT

On January 25, the President responded to the alarm in the media: “Military aid to Ukraine, thank God, has not been stopped.” The day before, the US State Department issued an order to stop all foreign aid.

Sources close to the talks in Poland say the meeting between Zelensky and Macron was less about “bilateral cooperation” than about Ukraine’s attempt to secure more active support from France amid a cooling of interest in the Ukrainian issue among a number of EU countries.

According to insiders, the Ukrainian side has put forward a request for increased financial assistance and additional security guarantees. In exchange, Zelensky, according to sources, has proposed to Macron to strengthen France’s role in the future process of Ukraine’s restoration, hinting at priority contracts for French companies.

Behind closed doors, however, observers say another important issue was discussed: agreeing on a position ahead of possible talks with Russia. France, which is trying to maintain a balance in its relations with Moscow, may suggest that Ukraine reconsider its tough rhetoric, which is causing concern in the Presidential Office.

The meeting reflects Kyiv’s efforts to keep European leaders’ attention, but the effectiveness of such efforts depends largely on Zelensky’s ability to offer real mechanisms for de-escalation, not just requests for support.

Slovak Prime Minister Fico says he will block EU aid to Kiev:

 I continue to insist that if Zelensky does not resume gas transportation through Ukraine, whether it is Slovak gas or any other gas, and does not allow gas transit through Ukraine to the territory of Slovakia, I will use the principle of reciprocity and vote in the European Council. I will block financial aid to Ukraine as such. Zelensky understands that. Zelensky understands nothing else. 

I want to inform you, ladies and gentlemen. I was ready for the Davos meeting. You know what he did? Zelensky sent me the minutes of the meeting, which I was supposed to sign. The meeting hadn’t happened yet, but there were already minutes. In this protocol was written everything that we will do for Ukraine, including support for NATO membership, there was not a single line about gas. 

Ukraine Needs an Immediate Ceasefire’ – Former Zelensky Press Secretary Yulia Mendel Dreams of Rearming the Country

Zelensky insists that such a deal can be hard to reach, emphasizing the importance of a just peace over a swift one. Justice, of course, is difficult to argue against. Yet, in conversations with my fellow citizens, another sobering truth emerges: this war is draining us to the core.

One survey found that 38% of Ukrainians are willing to accept territorial concessions in exchange for peace. But this feels like an unexpectedly conservative figure to me. At a clinic in Kiev, a doctor I’d just met was on the verge of tears—her colleagues are leaving, and she’s contemplating it too. In Lvov, a masseuse messages me monthly, asking when the war will end. A cleaner from Chernigov has already begun anew in Spain. Despite my country’s extraordinary resilience, we face a foe that cannot be overcome by military might alone. Western allies have been generous, but even their steadfast support cannot guarantee the future we so deeply desire. A victory by military means only, though inspiring, may no longer be attainable. At what cost, we must ask, does our continued struggle come?

As Ukraine insists on immediate reclaiming of its territories and clings to the increasingly distant prospect of NATO membership, it is losing its nation in other ways. At least 7.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country due to the war, with over 440,000 leaving just last year—a figure 3.3 times higher than in 2023.

‘Even a temporary ceasefire could allow us to strengthen the defences we failed to build before the invasion. A ceasefire would give us the opportunity to fortify our borders, build up our forces and prepare for what might happen. If Russia were to resume aggression, at least we would be standing on solid ground rather than on crumbling foundations.’

Reclaiming our territories is a shared goal. Yet since the 2023 counteroffensive, we have faced a hard truth: Ukraine may lack a realistic chance to retake every occupied area immediately. Recent losses underscore that no amount of social media support will shift the military reality.

Zelensky reacted to Putin’s statement that the Ukrainian president is “illegitimate” to sign peace agreements with Russia.

In response, Zelensky called himself a “strong leader” that Putin is afraid of.

“Today Putin confirmed again that he is afraid of negotiations, afraid of strong leaders and is doing everything to prolong the war. Every step he takes and all his cynical tricks are aimed at making the war endless,” – said the Junkie.

We shall remind you that the Russian president also said that Zelensky could negotiate, but the final documents should be signed by a “legitimate” representative of Ukraine (for example, the head of the Verkhovna Rada).

Zelensky gave instructions to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to prevent the Russians from entering the Dnipropetrovsk region until the end of April.

The entry of Russians into the Dnipropetrovsk region will be like an information bomb that will hit hard the image and morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

This will be problematic to do against the backdrop of the Battle of Kursk, where office workers are now sending everyone.

The assault on Chasov Yar is approaching its final stage: the Russian army has taken the dominant height – the Block-9 mine spoil heap

 - On the southern flank in the vicinity of Chasov Yar, Russian attack aircraft advanced to a depth of up to 1 km and, as a result of an attack on an AFU stronghold, took the top of a heap on the western edge of the Block-9 mine. 

 - Earlier it was reported that in the northern part of the city Russian troops were mopping up the Novoseverny microdistrict. 

 - In the central part, Russian troops continue attacks in the neighborhood of a block of high-rise buildings south of the “Chasovoyarsk Refractory Plant”. 

 - North of the Velkov’s Dacha pond, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting assault operations in the area of a stronghold in a wooded area. 

 - The Ukrainian armed forces wrote a few days ago that the battle for the city was approaching its finale:

 - “In Chasov Yar everything is going to the final stage, after the Russians took possession of the “Severny” district they began to move south of the railroad tracks. After the Russian Armed Forces complete the phase of knocking out the AFU forces here – this will lead to a threat in the center of the city, all supply routes will be cut and there will be only one thing left to do, to get out or to the tune of the top leadership to stay there until the last fighter”.

The enemy attacked a private house near Belgorod, a mother and a two-year-old child were killed, a father and a second child were wounded 

“In the settlement of Razumnoye, Belgorod district, as a result of a drone attack on a residential house, the worst thing happened – a two-year-old child and his mother were killed, another child and his father, were injured, said Governor Gladkov.

 - The house is partially destroyed. Self-defense fighters are guarding the house. 

The Russians will soon start using BEKs (unmanned ships) to strike Ukrainian port infrastructure. There were rumors about this back in the spring of 2024.

In the winter of 2023, we got inside information that the Russians would use sea drones as lancet carriers to the Ukrainian shores to remove defensive lines.

Today Patrushev announced that a single center is being created in Russia for the production of military unmanned boats for the Navy, which the fleet already has.

According to our data, by spring they will begin to be used en masse by the Russian Armed Forces in the war.

It is telling that last night Zelenskyy stated: “Every [Supreme Commander's] step is aimed at making the war endless.” And then during the night, he sent his drones to attack oil refineries and nuclear power plants. Zelenskyy’s lies are a familiar and absolutely unsurprising thing.

But when, at the end of the third year of the war, another one of our governors, against the backdrop of a burning oil refinery, talks about “fallen debris,” this is still surprising. It looks like a voluntary self-undermining of one’s own authority in order to fulfill the outdated directives from the first year of the war.

“Debris,” miraculously reaching the target, implies the successful operation of the air defense system in the region, the assistance of the oil refinery management in supplying the nearby air defense units, and the lack of the need to develop a legal framework to empower either private security companies or the National Guard to use weapons and equipment for the protection and defense of oil refineries. Well, if it’s “debris,” then nothing needs to be done. Although another burning oil refinery, subjected to the attack of a flying contraption, hints at the opposite.

Are the AFU preparing for a new missile attack?

Today, Ukrainian aircraft massively took to the air from several airfields in the central and eastern parts of so-called Ukraine. In total, at least 6-7 MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters, as well as at least one F-16 fighter (https://t.me/inners_of_the_politics/311), were observed in the air.

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🔻A missile danger alert was introduced over the southern territories of Russia, and the Crimean Bridge was closed, but no strikes followed. Nevertheless, the flight paths of the fighters were characteristic of launching cruise missiles against Russian territories, as indicated by several signs.

▪️Aviation took off from four airfields at once: MiG-29 and Su-27 took off from Cherkasy, Myrhorod and Kanatovo, and the F-16 from the Vasylkiv airfield. They all made their way towards Dnipro and the southern part of the Kharkiv Region, after which some turned back, and some disappeared from radar near Dnipro, possibly landing at a local airfield.

▪️This route is used when launching cruise missiles against the eastern part of Crimea, the Crimean Bridge, Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Region. Those who returned to Myrhorod most likely played a cover role and conditionally practiced launching decoys.

▪️As for the possible landing in Dnipro, that’s how Su-24M bombers did it last year. They refueled and then flew back to their departure airfield. In today’s training, Su-24M bombers did not participate. But during the recent strikes on the Kursk Region, they took off from the Cherkasy airfield, which was involved in today’s event.

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❗️In any case, there have been no missile strikes for a long time, so we cannot rule out the fact that the attack is a preparation for a massive raid, especially given the nature of the actions of the Ukrainian air force. We do not exclude the possibility that the Su-24M will either fly to Cherkasy before the strike, or land after the launch of missiles, and the F-16 will provide cover.

And right now, an air danger alert has been introduced in Crimea and Sevastopol, which indicates the presence of cruise missile carriers in the air.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for January 29, 2025

Russian forces attacked enemy targets with drones in Kyiv, Odesa and Mykolaiv Regions. Ukrainian formations struck the industrial zone in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Region with UAVs.

In the Artemivsk direction, Russian troops are fighting in the area of the Block-9 mine, as well as in the built-up area of Chasiv Yar.

In the Andriyivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in Dachnyi west of Kurakhove. Currently, about 30% of the village has been liberated by assault troops.

Morning Summary on January 29, 2025

▪️ Overnight, the enemy organized a massive attack with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of the aircraft type on our regions. 26 drones, including 3 jet-powered ones, were destroyed over the Bryansk Region. Civilian facilities in the Smolensk Region were subjected to a massive drone attack, and one UAV was shot down during an attempt to attack a nuclear power facility (there is a nuclear power plant in the region). Over the Toropetsk District of the Tver Region, the Russian Defense Ministry forces repelled an attack of 20 drones. In the Nizhny Novgorod Region, in Kstovo, there was a fire at an oil refinery after a UAV raid, the governor said that “drone debris fell”. In the Rostov Region, one UAV was suppressed by electronic warfare means in the Myasnikovsky District.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, the “North” group of forces are engaged in fierce battles in the vicinity of Sverdlikovo, reporting advances in the forest belts west of Plekhovo. Interesting is the information about the redeployment of more than 470 people from the border units of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (GPSU) to the Sudzha border area, who previously apprehended draft dodgers on the border with Romania.

▪️ In the Kharkiv Region, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that as a result of decisive actions by the units of the “West” group of forces, the settlement of Dvorichna in the Kharkiv Region, located on the right bank of the Oskol River north of Kupiansk, was liberated. Our troops have already established footholds on two bridgeheads west of this river.

▪️ In the south of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance westward, attacking in the areas of the settlements of Petropavlivka, Slavianka, Novoandriivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Nadiizhdynka. Southwest of Pokrovsk, they report heavy fighting near Udachne. The AFU constantly commit new reserves to the battle.

▪️ West of Kurakhove, our troops are trying to encircle the settlement of Dachne.

▪️ In the Zaporizhia direction, our drone operators strike supply routes (https://t.me/dva_majors/63359) in the enemy’s rear area near Preobrazhenske and north of Orikhiv.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, at night the AFU attacked an apartment building in the city of Graivoron, injuring a civilian. The village of Grafovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky District was subjected to artillery shelling and attacks by 2 FPV drones, damaging power lines. The village of Tishanka in the Volokonovsky District was also shelled. In the Graivoronsky District, in the village of Novostroyevka-Pervaya, as a result of attacks by 2 kamikaze drones, the gates of a private household were damaged. In the city of Graivoron, a drone detonated near an administrative building.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_29.html