The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 18 2024

Mushroom cloud seen in Russia’s Tver region after Ukrainian drone attack

Ukrainian drone attack triggers earthquake-sized blast at Russia arsenal

Heavy drone strikes in Russia [18 September 2024]

Multi Kiloton Explosion North West of Moscow

Col Douglas Macgregor: Ukraine Strikes Deep Inside Russia Hits Weapons Depot

Toropets Ammunition Depot Northeast attack – analysis

Pro-Ukrainian media is currently losing its mind over what appears to be a successful attack against a significant Russian ammunition depot in Tver region. As usual, very specific and fantastical claims are being made which are impossible to verify – such as the explosion having destroyed recently delivered Iranian ballistic missiles and/or North Korean artillery ammunition. Other claims are most likely impossible, such as the facilty having been completely wiped out, or that the attack effectively makes Battlegroup North unable to fulfill its mission.

Ammunition depots are specifically built in such a way that they can’t be wiped out in a single conventional strike. As for the claim about Battlegroup North, the entire capacity of Toropets Northeast may be sufficient for 1-2 weeks of battlegroup operations. As significant as this attack is, it is only a blip in Russian Army logistics.

There is no doubt that Toropets Ammunition Depot Northeast has been an important logistics facilty since the 1960s, as the attached CIA report from 1965 shows. The facility has more recently undergone expansion characterised by hardened and well-protected bunkers on its Southeastern end. It is one of many such high-value logistical sites.

There’s also no doubt this was indeed a successful strike which detonated ammunition at multiple points within the facility.

The bunkers are very well-built and protected, and it is unlikely any of them were destroyed in this attack. I doubt that a strike so deep inside Russia would target the old part of the facility which likely contains decades-old small arms and/or artillery ammunition. That leaves the new sheds on the Northeast side of the depot and the train sheds, where munitions may be temporarily stacked for loading onto trains. The attack was likely prompted by NATO-supplied space imagery, showing exposed munitions at one or more train sheds.

There are reports that the village of Tsikarevo directly Northeast of the depot was completely burned as a result of the attack, which indicates the larger explosions occurred on that side of the depot.

In summary, we won’t know what the damage is until we see reliably-sourced, post-strike imagery of the site. In my opinion it is likely that one or more trainsheds, along with some of the new sheds were destroyed. The greatest military impact of the strike may not be munitions lost in the explosions but the damage caused to the rail lines. Access to resources at the site will be limited until they are rebuilt. 

On the attack by Ukrainian UAVs on military depots in Toropets

During the night, Ukrainian forces carried out a massive UAV strike on various targets on the territory of Russia. Air defenses were active in the Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Smolensk regions. One of the targets was an arsenal in the town of Toropets in Tver Region.

Despite official statements about a fire due to “falling debris”, this is obviously not the case. A partial evacuation has been announced in the area, with the population being evacuated to Zapadnaya Dvina.

The explosions at the depots were so powerful that they were detected by seismic monitoring systems. The first tremors of magnitude 2.8 were recorded at 3:56 am, followed by seven weaker ones, from 2 to 2.8 on the Richter scale.

Interestingly, the targeted depot was opened in its time by the then Deputy Defense Minister of Russia, Bulgakov, who is now under investigation. According to the official’s statements (https://www.ng.ru/news/617740.html) in 2018, the implementation of the complex would build a storage system for missiles, ammunition and explosives that “meets the highest global standards”. And the arsenal “allows to shelter stocks of missiles and ammunition from external influence and ensure their safety and explosion and fire safety”, and there was even a sauna (https://t.me/mig41/36920) on the territory, according to the report.

Perhaps, if everything that happened was caused by “falling debris”, the investigation has more work to do.

We are surprised to read that today’s strike on the arsenal in the Tver Region was the result of some top-secret Western developments in the field of UAVs, artificial intelligence, satellite reconnaissance, radar stations, and other NATO-related technologies.

The reality is that the fundamental attack did not differ much from similar drone raids on refineries, airfields, and other facilities. The tactics and even the types of weapons used by the adversary were roughly the same as in the massive strikes on Russian territory over the past half-year.

And the reasons for what happened are the same – a lot has been said over the past six months about the problems of countering drone attacks. There has been progress in addressing these issues, but, as can be understood, there is still a lot of work to be done. And one hopes that this work will not be limited to following empty slogans and seeking easy solutions.

📌 It is worth adding separately that the Russian Armed Forces have already faced large losses of ammunition depots in the SMO zone – this happened after the AFU received HIMARS and Storm Shadow. However, the problem was partly solved, for example, by dispersing large storage facilities.

Perhaps someone still naively believes that the combat zone is limited to the new regions, that the AFU has no long-range weapons, and that the drones attacking the refineries in the rear regions were launched (https://t.me/rybar/60149) from the Baltic States and Kazakhstan. Surprisingly, such beliefs are still not uncommon, even after half a year of regular raids.

rybar

During the investigation of the explosion at the Russian strategic arsenal warehouse in the Tver region, a new version of what happened was formed:

According to the source, the attack on the warehouse was carried out by a long-range missile from the Ukrainian side: the “suspects” are the Storm Shadow missile and the Ukrainian “Palyanytsya”, so far they are more inclined to the second option.

The Palyanitsa drone missile is capable of flying up to 750 km at a speed of 400 to 900 kilometers per hour. It was its characteristic sound that our source from the security agencies recognized.

The chronicle of events at the moment is structured as follows:

- At 5 a.m., UAVs took off from Ukraine and the Russian Federation to probe the air defense and switch the systems to recharge. According to the insider’s estimates, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used about 200 drones.

- UAVs were used along the entire route of “Palyanytsia” – presumably, it was launched from the Chernihiv region. The distance to the warehouse is exactly about 700 km. Storm Shadow flies at distances of up to 600 km.

- The operation to “disarm” the air defense lasted about four hours. At about eight in the morning, a powerful explosion was heard – according to our data, “Palyanytsya” was carrying a high-explosive shell. The existing dimensions can accommodate a charge weighing no more than tens of kilograms, but this is quite enough to penetrate a concrete slab.

- The shock wave and fire led to the detonation of shells in the underground and above-ground structures of the test site.

The version that the strike was carried out by a Storm Shadow missile currently has no logical basis: according to an insider, the F-16s (from which, presumably, the missile could have been launched) were not seen in the skies over Ukraine and the EU countries, and the US is holding “on hold” permission for Ukraine to strike the Russian Federation with long-range weapons, especially those launched from their fighters.

INSIDER-T

“Putin has already announced ‘red lines’ many times, and he has not escalated,” NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg told in an interview with the Times several days ago.

Due to that fact, he added, allowing Ukraine to launch long-range missile strikes deep into Russia would not be a red line that would lead to escalation.

Well, is such a lovely morning here that we absolutely need to speak about “red lines” and its use by Western propaganda!

So, in mayority of the cases, it works like this:

- Create a false expectation like “Putin will take Kiev in three days” or “Putin will attack NATO if any western equipment crosses Russian border”.

- Expose this idea in all media and social networks by a numerous army of trolls, so people get used to this idea and even beleve that is an absolute true.

- As eventually this will not happen as you just invented that, use this claim to show that “Putin (or Russia) is weak”

- Profit.

The second common use of those so-called “red lines” is to invent such a blatant lie, that general population stay frozen from fear in front of their TV waiting for evil Russians to explode the entire planet, to keep the people distracted from the sh*tshow we have here in Europe let alone the US one. 

The third use of “red lines” is even less innocent then previous two.

As you can observe, both Kiev regime and its masters currently are committing a huge amount of non-logical actions, such is Kursk region invasion, which costs lots of lives of Ukrainian soldiers, or shelling civilans in Belgorod and targeting other border regions with drone attacks. 

Would it be wiser to concentrate those actions on crambling frontlines? Yes. But what happens is that NATO urgently needs a provocation in order to obtain an exuse to start a real war. If this does not work (as luckily Russian government are not a bunch of crazy idiots), it still can be used for the “weak” song.

If resume all those points, in next months we may witness some more agonic and senceless suicidal missions from our beloved piglets who are trying to win some more time before their owners will give up and finally send them to the butcher. 

Stay safe and don’t panic

Putin Aides Warn Ukraine & West Over Long-Range Weapons Gambit; ‘More Powerful Weapons Ready…’

The US has already familiarized itself with Zelensky’s plan to end the war and considers it a completely viable option, says the Permanent Representative to the UN

“We think he’s laying out a strategy and a plan that can work. We need to figure out how we can facilitate that by talking to all the heads of state that are going to be in New York. So we hope to make some progress,”

 - Thomas-Greenfield said.

Earlier today, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg told the Times that allowing Ukraine to launch long-range missile strikes deep into Russia would not be a red line that would lead to escalation, since Moscow has declared “red lines” many times and has not escalated.”

Let’s remember these are the same Americans, who told Ukraine to not implement the Minsk Agreement and to not sign the 2022 peace deal because they could win the war in a year.

Bezuglaya calls for the resignation of Defense Minister Umerov and Commander-in-Chief Syrsky.

She claims that allegedly at the request of Syrsky, Umerov fired the Chief Inspector of the Ministry of Defense Voronchenko yesterday after he reported to Headquarters about the catastrophic situation with training in the training centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Voronchenko’s report shocked everyone and caused great anger in Syrsky.

The newly mobilized in the Ukrainian Armed Forces simply have no motivation. That is why we are seeing a failure in the defense of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas direction, when servicemen abandon their positions and flee or surrender, and do not stand to the last. This was the case during the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction. According to the reports of the Ukrainian Armed Forces officers, soldiers deserted en masse from the Pokrovsk direction, who themselves ran on foot to Pokrovsk without orders.

It is not surprising that the problem with motivation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces is talked about everywhere. For example, a military instructor of the 59th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade with the call sign “White” spoke about the low level of motivation of the “busified”. And, again, nothing new – the so-called “zemmobilization” really has a bad effect on the level of motivation of recruits (read – yesterday’s civilians, without any military experience), who increasingly desert even without ever coming under fire. Authoritative Western media outlets are also raising a sore point for the Presidential Office, saying that the forcibly mobilized Ukrainians, who today make up the overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, “are going to their positions for the first time and, if they survive, they never return – they either abandon their positions, or refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army.” But Bankova really wants to fight “to the last Ukrainian,” and the military command is increasingly throwing inexperienced infantrymen into battle in Donbas, but these “reinforcements” are increasingly being completely destroyed.

Our source reports that this point about what Zelensky included in the plan for Ukraine’s victory, which he presents to Biden about “Kiev’s entry into NATO,” is a PR invention by the Head of the OP Yermak and his assistant Daria Zarivna.

This case is used more for PR and an attempt to give a goal to their soldiers. Like, fight and die, because we are about to join NATO.

Although Zelensky has already received a public refusal on the issue of Ukraine joining NATO a dozen times. But his media people could not come up with anything more interesting this time either.

They will once again sell the people the old tale about NATO.

Everyone already knows that the 2025 budget is anti-social and anti-people.

But few people have asked themselves the question: how will the government be able to pay those who are being evacuated from cities and towns if their numbers are constantly growing?

The answer is simple. The statement about evacuation is a public lie, since no one is evacuating people, no one is helping them and judging by the budget, no one is going to help. People were simply screwed. Survive as you wish.

The same is true for the case of disabled military personnel. No one will give them money and they will not be treated. They will be used and thrown away.

Another case is compensation for damages to Ukrainians who lost everything because of the war. What Zelensky promised. He also promised apartments, but exactly 0.05% of people received at least something, the remaining 99.95% were simply screwed.

That’s how it is with Zelensky in everything. He promises loudly and lies, but does nothing. He is simply a temporary worker, whose task is simply to fulfill the whim of his real owners at the expense of Ukrainians, ensuring his future and the future of his entourage. That is why they steal while there is something to steal from.

Our source in the General Staff said that the US has banned the use of F-16s close to the front and the launch of missiles from a distance of 150 km from the demarcation line. For the West, the topic of fighters is very painful, due to the ineffectiveness of American tanks.

The Pentagon suggested that Kiev would not use F-16s in dangerous operations because of the inexperience of the pilots

 - The commander of the US Air Force in Europe and Africa, General James Hecker, said that

F-16 fighter jets are new to Ukrainian pilots, so they will not be sent on the riskiest missions.

 - Hecker noted that after the crash of the F-16 fighter jet handed over to Kiev, the U.S. offered to assist the Ukrainian side in finding out why. “We’ll see if they accept that offer,” he added.

Our source reports that the war in Ukraine will last until at least the fall of next year.

If Harris comes to power.

It is advantageous for the Democrats to maintain this crisis as the engine of their credit economy and expansion of production (they are washing out all major producers from the EU, driving Europe into crisis. In simple terms, they are bankrupting their “allies”).

Plus, in this way they are slowing down the development of Europe, Russia and BRICS.

This is bad for Ukrainians. Life for them will get worse with each passing month.

Paris, Berlin and Warsaw to Increase Military Aid to Moldova

The foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland, united in the Weimar Triangle, emphasized the need to rearm the Moldovan army, according to a joint communiqué from the countries.

The countries pledged to support Moldova both bilaterally and through the European Peace Fund. The foreign ministers also praised the start of the negotiation process on Moldova’s accession to the EU and called for “continuing reforms in the areas of human rights, democracy and the rule of law.”

Lukashenko – about the growing escalation on the part of the United States:

Since mid-September, the United States has been escalating the military situation both on the part of Moscow and Kiev on the front. I want the Russians to hear it as well, we haven’t brought this information to them yet. Western intelligence services are talking about Belarus as a possible place of escalation. There seems to be a lull. Yeah, they’ve gone to Kursk. Are they leaving? They will. The Ukrainians won’t hold there. But the Americans don’t want that. They want the war to go on until the last Ukrainian, or better yet, Russian. They need a war.

Last night, the city of Toropets in the Tver region was attacked by Ukrainian Armed Forces drones, which caused a fire

The authorities announced a partial evacuation of the region.

At this moment, residents of Toropets evacuated due to the UAV attack can return to the city, the Tver governor reported.

From 12 o’clock today we opened access to Toropets. Accordingly, everyone who wants to return to their homes will be transported by bus

- he stated.

Kursk Direction: AFU Attacks in Glushkovo District and Advances of the Russian Armed Forces in Korenevo

🔻In the Glushkovo District, the enemy attacked in the area of Medvezhe, reportedly capturing a small strongpoint, which is partially confirmed by footage from objective control.

Krasnooktyabr’skoye and Volfino appear to be in the “gray zone” or have passed under enemy control. Judging by the footage of a strike on an ammunition transport, the enemy intended to deliver supplies to Krasnooktyabr’skoye from Novyy Put’.

🔻In the Korenevo District, the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces south of Obukhovka is being recorded. Judging by the footage of the dispersal of an incendiary mixture from a UAV over the plantings, the Russian troops have advanced significantly on the line Viktorovka—Obukhovka. At the same time, the liberation of Uspenovka, Nikolayevo-Dar’ino and Dar’ino has not yet been confirmed. Southeast of Korenevo, attacks by the Russian Armed Forces are also being recorded. There are also successes (https://t.me/rusich_army/17177) in the fields north of Korenevo.

🔻In the Sudzha District, no changes in the situation have been observed so far. There are still reports of the work of Russian artillery in the vicinity of Orlovka and Malaya Loknya, as well as Martynivka and Plekhovo. At the same time, there is no information about attacks or advances, except for the repulsed AFU attack near Borki, from where footage continues to appear after the clearing.

On September 17, the “North” troop group continued to carry out combat missions in the border areas of the Kursk region

On the Korenеvo section of the front, the Fearless assault groups continue to advance. One counterattack of the AFU in the vicinity of the village of Lyubimovka with up to 15 men on 2 AVs was repulsed. The losses of the enemy amounted to up to 7 Nazis.

In the north of Sujan district there is also an advance. South of Suja the enemy tried to counterattack with up to a platoon of personnel from the direction of Plekhovo, had no success, lost up to 9 men killed and withdrew to the original positions.

In the Glushkovsky district of Kursk region on the section of the state border continued fierce fighting. The enemy is bringing in reserves, engaging GUR units and Western armored vehicles. During the day, the Northerners repelled 4 attacks on the settlement of Veseloye, destroying up to 40 men, a tank, a BMP and a AV.

The total advance of the Russian troops in Kursk region was up to 2000 meters.

On the Volchansk direction, fighting continues in the Volchansk settlement. The AFU is increasing its efforts to transfer reinforcements across the Volchya River. 

During the day the fearless foiled 6 attempts to force the river by small groups of 4-5 people. The enemy losses amounted to 16 Nazis out of 26 who took part in the transfer.

In the Liptsy direction, artillery fire from the “North” group disrupted 3 AFU rotations from the area north of Liptsy. The enemy’s losses are being specified.

In addition, the advance of two assault groups in the direction of the village of Glubokoye was uncovered. Fire damage was inflicted by FPV drones and UAV drops, up to 15 people were killed.

Over the past day, the enemy losses amounted to 560 people (more than 410 of them in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

on the Sumy direction:

▪️ two “Leopard” tanks;

▪️ Bogdana SPH;

▪️ four artillery guns;

▪️ two 120-mm mortars;

▪️ two BMPs;

▪️ 10 APCS;

▪️ six units of automotive equipment;

In other areas:

▪️ 120-mm mortar;

▪️ four UAVs near Volchansk, Vilcha and Kazachya Lopan;

▪️ HEC radars in the vicinity of the village of Guryev Kazachok;

▪️ two units of motorized vehicles;

▪️ 20 aircraft-type UAVs.

There is real chaos and panic in the ranks of the enemy in the Korenevo section. Yesterday, some of the AFU units experienced something similar to the events in Ilovaisk, having lost their supplies and finding themselves practically surrounded. 

The fighters of the “North” group offered them to surrender and stop senseless resistance. However, for some reason the AFU began a panic flight from their positions, as a result of which the Northerners destroyed up to 50 men of the enemy’s manpower, 7 were taken prisoner. Also, as trophies, several samples of Western armored vehicles were captured.

Victory will be ours!

“He who becomes a reptilian worm, can he then complain that he has been crushed?” – Immanuel Kant

North Wind 

Breaking news from the Kursk border region

A spectacular defeat of large AFU groups in the Novy Put – Wolfino locations. The attackers got into a well-prepared “fire bag”. A gigantic amount of burned armored vehicles and destroyed enemy personnel was recorded.

The footage will soon be published to whomever is entitled, including war correspondents.

Even judging by the video, this is something incredible.

Syrsky threw a brigade of the AFU into the Kursk region on a Leopard. What came out of it? 

🔺The actions of the 21st AFU UMBR near Vesyoloye (on the border of Sumy and Kursk regions) were called in some reports as entering the village, or fixing it there, or something else. And here is what happened in reality. 

The convoy with BMP CV90, Marder 1A3 and other vehicles was destroyed about 1.5 km from the border on Russian territory, plus or minus here. It never made it as far as Vesyoloye.

🔺With the data of objective control we observe a picture already typical for the Kursk region. The AFU is trying to move along the roads, subjected to artillery fire and UAV strikes. From the air this is observed by Russian drones, and the AFU columns (which they “don’t use” according to some bloggers) don’t have even minimal air cover.

🔺By the way, this picture is typical since the summer offensive of the AFU in Zaporozhye in 2023. Since then, obviously, life has taught them nothing.

🔺 The 21st brigade of the AFU was thrown to storm the flank, which was considered a “reserve of the reserve” and until the last time it was not put into full-fledged combat. 

🔺It is noteworthy that until August-September 2024, the 21st UMBR was stationed in the area near Kremenna. Already on August 31, the brigade appears in the summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in the list of compounds that suffered losses in Sumy region. Most likely, the AFU command kept it in the operational reserve as one of the least shabby and most “heavy” after the 47th UMBR.

🔺The APCs standing near the woods are shot by anti-tank missiles, artillery and drones, which indirectly indicates a well-organized ambush. And this is generally not surprising – the AFU command’s penchant for show-offs was demonstrated by its interest in the Glushkovsky district, and since the end of August the AFU had already been aware of the redeployment of a compound to the Kursk-Sumsky section. 

A blow to the flank was most likely expected and prepared for.

Military Chronicle

Donetsk direction – Ukrainsk, Gornyak, Kurakhovo, very reminiscent of the future cauldron.  

18-09-2024 – Ukrainsk

Leaving positions outside the city and behind Zhelannoye-1. Zhelannoye-1, the AFU headquarters are trying to consolidate the retreating units, organizing the defense along the line. Tsukurino-Gornyak-Kurahovka-Alexandropol. The latter is also being stormed now. 

The offensive of the RF Armed Forces from the bridgehead in the area of Ukrainsk-Ostroe can “push” the AFU in this area directly into the Kurakhovka reservoir, which is an operational risk for the opponents. 

In Dzerzhinsk (aka Toretsk), the Russian Armed Forces are slowly gnawing through the enemy’s defenses. Fierce fighting in the area of the central city hospital.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for September 18, 2024

Ukrainian forces carried out a drone attack on an ammunition depot in the settlement of Toropets in Tver Region during a night raid, with cleanup operations still ongoing at the impact site.

In Kursk Region, Russian forces are expanding their control zone in Sudzha and Korenevo districts, while the AFU are not attempting to consolidate on the outskirts of Glushkovo district.

In the Kupiansk direction, Russian forces are advancing west of Pishchane, expanding their bridgehead in the northern and western directions towards the Oskil River.

In the Pokrovsk direction, fighting continues in the area of Hrodivka and in the fields north of the settlement. Russian forces control about 80% of the populated area.

In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have expanded their control zone in the area of Vodyane, with active clashes ongoing in the area of the “Yuzhdonbass” mine No. 1.

rybar

Ukrainsk Has Fallen | AFU Disaster Continues

They captured this, this, this, this, this & this~ | Ukraine War SITREP (Situation Report) / Summary

FIRST BOSS GOING DOWN!!! Kursk western flank update… – Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report

This gonna STRETCH so much more…. What are they thinking??? | Ukraine War Conclusions

Russia Officially Announced That Zelensky and Western Leaders Will Be Punished For Their CRIMES

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_18.html