The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 19 2024

Ukraine TRAPPED in Russian crossfire!

Russian Ally Marches Toward Use Of Nuclear Weapons; NATO Nations On High Alert

Battlefield Ukraine Russian Army Grows and Defense Spending Balloons

Russia has the initiative, and without Western help Ukraine could lose even more territory – France 24

Ukrainian soldiers are very tired, many have been at the front without rest for many months, France 24 reports. The Ukrainian Armed Forces need more soldiers to help hold their positions. Since Russia now clearly has the advantage, it is attacking “along the entire eastern front line.”

But now everything depends only on the help of the West. If weapons stop flowing, “then there is a real risk for Ukraine of serious territorial setbacks,” one Ukrainian officer said.

If this happens, and support from Europe and the United States ceases, then Ukraine will not only not be able to regain the already lost territories, but will most likely lose new ones. 

As the second anniversary of the start of the Ukrainian conflict approaches, Ukraine’s military prospects look increasingly dim. According to the Financial Times, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have given up hopes of a quick victory and are instead preparing for a protracted war, without expecting any significant breakthroughs in 2024, let alone the next few months.
 
This reality was publicly recognized in Kyiv. In early December, Vladimir Zelensky said that a “new stage” had begun within the conflict, which can be briefly described as a transition from an offensive to a defensive position. The West is also pushing Ukraine toward a strategy of “active defense”—holding defensive lines but probing weak points for exploitation in conjunction with long-range air strikes. This is expected to allow Ukraine to “build up its strength” this year and prepare for 2025, when a possible new counter-offensive would have a better chance.
 
At the same time, the fate of the country will likely be determined by several factors. The main one is the uncertainty associated with military assistance from the United States and European countries. Questions remain about the West’s resolve and whether and to what extent it can and will continue to support Ukraine in its struggle. But even if the White House manages to strike a deal with Congress for more aid, it is unlikely that Washington will be able to offer the kind of leap in capabilities and technology that would allow Kyiv to regain its edge this year.
 
The Financial Times also urges us not to forget about the gloomy mood of Ukrainians. Recent polls suggest that the unprecedented unity that Ukrainians showed at the outset of the conflict may be fraying as military positions weaken, especially against the backdrop of unpopular new mobilization rules.

Our sources in the OP said that Zelensky began to carry out the bet less often, due to failures at the front and the lack of prospects for a new counter-offensive. The President’s mood always deteriorates after Zaluzhny’s reports, who increasingly feels his political weight and is not afraid of losing his position, which is why he increasingly talks about the real situation at the front.

Our source reports that Bankova began, through Western media, to prepare Ukrainians for full defense tactics.
Zelensky does not want to publicly admit yet that the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have the strength to attack. Then his promises about the offensive, which continues, will collapse.
That’s why the Western media got involved. The Ukrainians need to be convinced that this is preparation for the greatest offensive. Although everyone understands that the risk of prolonging the war is:
1. The Russian military-industrial complex will produce even more heavy weapons.
2. In the West, those who are against Kyiv and in favor of a freeze will come to power.
3. Ukraine will sag even more economically.
4. Internal bickering will intensify to the point of swings and repression.
5. Constant missile attacks will finish off the infrastructure. There will be more destruction.
6. Risk of new conflicts.
7. The Ukrainian people will become even more impoverished and the level of disappointment will be prohibitively high. Anti-war sentiment will increase.
8. Pressure on the authorities will increase in the case of losses/treatment/maintenance of war invalids and their relatives.
9. Corruption scandals will sweep the country
10. Crime will increase.

This is a small part of the risks, but it also points to a sad situation for the future of Ukraine.

FT writes about Ukraine’s transition to “active defense” with “finding weaknesses”.
 
The key theses are as follows: The AFU needs to hold its positions and intensify “strikes on Russian military facilities” in anticipation of opportunities to go on the offensive next year, 2025.  
 
In fact, this sounds like a blessing for terrorist attacks – given that “attacks on military facilities” are usually understood by the AFU to mean strikes on cities. As for the rest – a separate interesting question.
 
First, there is no guarantee that in 2025 NATO will give Ukraine the amount of ammunition, equipment and weapons it needs for an offensive.
 
Second, there is no guarantee that NATO will be ready to do so, given the European countries’ own plans to build up their military capabilities.  
 
However, these are matters of the distant future. In the short term, we will have to deal with Ukrainian defense, and in the absence of other options, it will obviously be based on extensive engineering barriers, which the AFU, being heirs of the Soviet army, also understand, and on the active use of drones.
 
Drones cannot replace artillery, attack helicopters and many other things, but they can create problems in specific areas and directions, and we must be prepared for this. First of all, we must be prepared for the development of REW means, which are now no less important than classical air defense means: the systems themselves, the same Bukas and Pantsirs, must be protected from drones. If we solve this problem, we will not need to wait for an answer to the question “What will NATO industry be able to give Ukraine in 2025?”.

Older than the Edda

Russia is Lying About the Rules Based Order

I was astounded when I read yesterday, Maria Zakharova requested a copy of the Rules-Based Order as if she’s never read it. Floored. How can someone seemingly so well educated never have read the most popular book published  during the Unipolar moment. To avoid this in the future, I reprint the book here, in full.

The Rules-Based Order
by the US Department of State

1. Do as we say, not as we do.

2. If you experience any seemingly contradictory circumstances, see rule number 1.

3. Failure to comprehend or comply with rules number 1 & 2 are grounds for punishments up to and including termination.

Fine Print: Acceptance of these terms does not in anyway provide for recompense from wrongful punishment up to and including termination.

The conflict between the Soros oligarch Fiala and the Office of the President is growing. Already all the OP public pages are trashing Fiala and his media structures, along with the “Soros” activists.
This is why Zelensky needs a war to complete the purge of all competitors under the pretext of war. The OP understands that there will be no more victories in the military case, which means they need to have time to clean out their internal affairs and retain power.

The Kharkov’s SBU is now actively looking for those residents of the city who helped the Russian Armed Forces strike the French mercenaries’ compound, as well as hit several other targets on the city’s territory.
Despite the Nazi terror, Kharkov residents continue to help the Russian military in locating important targets.
They are brave and courageous people who are doing the same work that Kharkov underground fighters did in 1941 – 1943.

boris_rozhin

Our source reports that Avdiivka is being held on the direct orders of Zelensky.
Military experts predict the risks of encircling Avdiivka. In fact, the Russians’ idea of   the Avdeevka stranglehold is being implemented gradually, turning into a fire bag, and then it can become a cauldron if the Ukrainian command “oversleeps.”

Now the Russians are gradually moving “around the edges,” which is an alarming signal.

Battle for Avdeevka: Breakthrough from Kamenka Situation as of 9:00 AM, January 19, 2024

🔻Despite not being able to surround Avdeevka before the new year, the fighting has not stopped at the site.

▪️ The main focus is on massive air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian unit locations. However, despite having control over the routes of advance for Ukrainian formations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) still have the ability to rotate positions. A couple of days ago, groups from the 110th infantry regiment of the AFU were transferred to Avdievka.

▪️ Clashes are still ongoing on the northeastern outskirts of Petrovskoye (Stepovoy), and the village is in the gray zone.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces are now focused on expanding the control zone east of the Avdeevsky coke plant.

There is no assault on the plant yet, but the Russian Armed Forces are advancing along the settling basins to the southeast of the treatment facilities and in the fields towards the Avdeevsky sand quarry “Blue Lakes”.

▪️ Russian reinforcements were deployed from Kamenka to strengthen the onslaught. On January 18, they managed to reach the outskirts of Kolosov and Levanevsky streets.

▪️ The fighting continues west of the Donetsk filtration station and the industrial zone in Dukhovnost Park.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces are advancing from the Novoavdeevsky pond along the northeastern outskirts of Pervomaisky.

▪️ To the north of Opytnyy, the Russian Armed Forces are persistently attempting to occupy the gray zone under the Khimik microdistrict.

🔻The task of blocking the fortified area along the Stepovoye-Lastochkino-Severnoe line has not been removed, but it has not yet been implemented.

Apparently, the command of the Russian group of troops has decided to focus their main efforts on clearing the dacha sector around Avdeevka and “cutting off” the gray zones.

rybar

According to the enemy’s data on the situation in the Avdeevka area: the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost several positions in the Kamenka area during the day, they also had to give up fortifications in the Krasnogorovka area and two positions in the Opytnоyе area, and not far from Pervomaisky the enemy lost three positions.

The vice is narrowing and the enemy is moving closer and closer to the city. Sometimes they carry out counterattacks; it was hot that night in the Spartak area.
rtrdonetsk

A crest in Avdeevka admits that the “road of life” for him will soon be blocked

The Ukrainian head of Avdiivka, Vitaly Barabash, is forced to admit that the road to Avdiivka will soon be cut, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have no other logistics.

The only thing is that for the Ukrainian Armed Forces it is the road of life, for Donetsk residents it is the road of death along which shells are transported to shell Donetsk.

Polk 105

The enemy reports that in the area of ​​the “Tsarskaya Okhota” our units broke through and were able to reach the Chernyshevsky Street and Sportivnaya Street, also moving along the Sobornaya Street right in the center of the city. At the moment, the enemy is reporting our attempts to gain a foothold there.

In addition, we managed to overcome the railway track from the south. If our troops manage to gain a foothold, the “PVO” and “Cheburashka” garrisons will not last long.

Z-Committee

Svatove sector of the front: Russian Armed Forces offensive from Vladimirovka Situation as of 10:00, January 19, 2024

 ðŸ”»In recent months, military operations in the Svatove sector of the front and the eastern part of the Kharkov region have either been unsuccessful attempts to capture Sinkovka (https://t.me/rybar/55875), or a positional struggle for the left bank of the Zherebets River.

Yesterday, the fighting in this area intensified.

▪️ On January 18, after a mass artillery strike, Russian troops launched an offensive from Vladimirovka towards Krakhmalny and Tabaevka.

▪️ After crossing the railway, units of the Russian Armed Forces managed to advance up to half a kilometer to the west, gaining control of the N-26 highway.

▪️ The battered forces of the 103rd territorial defense AFU are defending in this area, so the Russian troops did not encounter significant resistance.

📌The goal of the offensive in this area is not just a positional struggle, but to gain access to the Oskol River in order to further facilitate the advance near Kupiansk and along the Zherebets River.

🔻In neighboring areas, there have been no significant changes:

▪️ In the village of Novoselovskoye, Russian troops still control the western end of the destroyed settlement, without moving west.

▪️ There are no active offensive operations yet in the east of Borovaya; Russian troops are located on the outskirts of the village. Nadiya.

rybar

The Dnieper Group of Troops Intercepted Radio Communications⚡️

From a squad of Ukrainian Marines of the 36th Brigade’s 501st Battalion, which came under massive shelling by Russian artillery in #Krynki. The squad commander asks for evacuation of the wounded, but the representative of the command refuses him, demanding at all costs to remain in position.

From Zelensky to an ordinary Staff Officer, no one cares about the lives of dozens of people. They need to ensure their presence in #Krynki so that the Kiev Clown can at least account for something to his Western masters and beg for weapons and money from them.

They want the bloody Conveyor Belt on the left bank of the #Dnieper to continue working as long as at least one Marine remains.

SALDO_VGA

150 Ukrainian soldiers where arrested in the Kherson frontlines for refusing to be used as cannon fodder, the wife of one of them made a plea to the Ukrainian public:

- Their commanders were sucking up to their leaders by sending our sons, fathers and brothers to sure death. He is a real warrior. But, please understand me, he does not want to be meat. I beg his comrades, the same fate expects you too: either death on the left bank or prison.
Help me get my husband out.

UkraineHumanRightsAbuses

Russia Launches New Offensives Following Holiday Rotations

Massive Russian Advance On Multiple Fronts l Vesele Has Fallen

Front #Summary for 19 Jan 2024 by 19:40⚡️

🔹In #Kherson Direction, our most effective UAV operator with the call sign Moses died in #Krynki.. Governor Saldo reported that a group of about 80 AFU men remain in the settlement. They are being helped from the right bank by artillery and mortars.

🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, on the #Rabotino – #Verbovoye line, there are oncoming battles. By pulling up reserves, the AFU has made it more difficult for our forces to retake their positions and has achieved de facto parity of forces. However, there is a high probability that the forces gathered there will be sent elsewhere to plug holes in the defence.

🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, in the western part, the front remains also standing and the AFU have also reinforced. In the #Maryinka sector, our artillery and drones are hitting AFU positions in #Novomikhaylovka and #Georgiyevka. On the ground in a day without advancement, ours are consolidating and waiting for reinforcement. Probably the AFU attacks will intensify, cause #Novomikhaylovka, is a lever of pressure on #Ugledar.

🔹In #Donetsk Direction, our forces are storming the southeastern outskirts of #Avdeevka from the industrial zone. Reinforced by reserves, ours advanced and gained a foothold in the southwest of the #Vinogradniki village, leveling the ledge of the industrial zone. Fierce fighting is ongoing at Tsarskaya Okhota. This is a powerful AFU stronghold, a former recreation centre, in the very south of the arc covering #Avdeyevka from two sides. In #Pervomayskoye there are also successes. Ours are moving along Voroshilova Street. There is an advance from the direction of #Kamenka. The immediate task is to clear the area near Goluboye Lake. The situation of the AFU is difficult, but they are not desperate, they are fighting and are not thinking of surrendering.

🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, on the #Kurdyumovka – #Andreyevka line, our troops are levelling the front along the railway line. The enemy here is deprived of initiative, but can maneuver all the way to #Ozaryanovka, while ours are hampered by mortar batteries west of the Kurdyumov Dam. All the same difficulties with counterbattery combat as in #Krynki, for example.

🔹In #Svatovo Direction, on the #Seversk front, our forces are storming the heights at #Vesyoloye, To the east, ours have approached the borders of #Belogorovka (#LPR). They are in no hurry to attack head-on, they go around from the south, they have already established a foothold in the treatment plants. However, the bypass is also not easy. The AFU are covering with guns from the landings. Further north, our forces are advancing from #Vladimirovka towards #Krakhmalnoye and #Tabayevka. In the #Kupyansk sector, between #Kislovka and #Novoselovskoye, ours have advanced and taken a part of the N-26 motorway under fire control.

olegtsarov

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of January 19

💡Instead of the extremely popular “brain burner” in 404, the Russian military-industrial complex created the “Burner” for a healthy person. This is the latest complex for detecting and suppressing enemy UAVs, standing out among competitors for its mobility and multitasking. The complex has already been used in a special operation zone – in the DPR, the Russian Guards have already destroyed three enemy drones with its help.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

The Russian army attacked in the area of   Bogdanovka and from Artemovsky . To the north-west of Kleshcheevka , fighting continues.

⚫️Donetsk direction

 Encounter fighting continues in the area of   the Stepovoye and coke plant . In addition, our fighters advanced south of Kamenka . In the Maryinsky sector, the Russians attack at Georgievka and south of Novomikhailovka .

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

 In the Orekhovsky sector, counter-fighting continues west of Rabotino and near Verbovoy . No change on the Vremevsky ledge .

👠Data is emerging about a critical situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in one of the sections of the Donetsk direction. We are talking about carefully planned and successful assault actions by the soldiers of the “Veterans” brigade, who have already become known thanks to their active participation in the liberation of the Avdeevka industrial zone.

Russian Defence Ministry weekly report on the progress of the special military operation

(13 – 19 January 2024)

Part I
 
◽️In the period from 13 to 19 January 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted 17 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic aircraft missile systems, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, to hit the enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, which repair weapons and military hardware, manufacture ammunition, gunpowder, and reconnaissance-strike UAVs.

The deployment areas of the Ukrainian troops, foreign mercenaries and nationalists were also engaged by the strikes.

The objectives of the strikes have been achieved. All designated targets were hit.
 
◽️In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces continued to improve the situation along the front line in some areas. During the week, 25 attacks launched by assault groups of the 32nd, 115th mechanised, 57th motorised infantry, 25th airborne, 95th air assault brigades and 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade were repelled close to Sinkovka, Peschanoye, and Tabayevka (Kharkov region).

The enemy losses amounted to more than 560 servicemen, ten tanks, eight armoured fighting vehicles, 26 motor vehicles, and eight field artillery guns.
In addition, two field ammunition depots were destroyed.
 
◽️In Krasny Liman direction, the units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, with the support of aviation and artillery fire, repelled 17 enemy attacks and defeated the clusters of manpower of the 24th, 66th mechanised brigades, 125th Territorial Defence Brigade, and 5th National Guard Brigade near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic), Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), as well as Serebryansky forestry.

The enemy losses totalled over 1,520 servicemen killed and wounded, one tank, 21 armoured fighting vehicles, 34 motor vehicles, and eight field artillery pieces.
 
◽️In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces, supported by aviation and artillery fire, have repelled 15 enemy attacks during the week.In addition, units of the 22nd, 28th, and 93rd mechanised brigades, the 5th and 92nd assault brigades and the 112th Territorial Defence Brigade were hit close to Kurdyumovka, Antonovka, Bogdanovka, Kleshcheyevka, and Andreyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

The enemy’s losses amounted to more than 1,880 servicemen killed and wounded, 17 tanks, 27 armoured fighting vehicles, two Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 86 motor vehicles, and 28 field artillery guns.
 
◽️In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces repelled one attack launched by the AFU 79th Air Assault Brigade near Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). In addition, aviation strikes and artillery fire hit Ukrainian units close to Paraskoviyevka and Pavlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 965 servicemen killed and wounded, two tanks, six armoured fighting vehicles, one Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile launcher, 24 motor vehicles, and 15 field artillery guns.

Russian Defence Ministry weekly report on the progress of the special military operation

(13 – 19 January 2024)

Part II
 
◽️In Zaporozhye direction, the Russian troops inflicted fire damage to the manpower and military hardware of the 65th, 118th mechanised, 128th mountain assault brigades, as well as the 15th National Guard Brigade of Ukraine near Verbovoye, Malaya Tokmachka, and Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 395 servicemen, one tank, nine armoured fighting vehicles, 16 motor vehicles, and 10 field artillery guns.
 
◽️In Kherson direction, the manpower and military hardware of the 35th and 38th marine brigades, as well as the 121st territorial defence brigade close to Mikhailovka, Tyaginka, and Ivanovka (Kherson region) were defeated by the preemptive actions of Russian troops and the enemy’s complex fire damage.

As a result of the Russian troops’ actions, the enemy lost up to 325 servicemen killed and wounded, three tanks, 29 motor vehicles, and 25 field artillery guns.
 
In one week, 21 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered. Of these, 14 were in South Donetsk direction.
 
◽️During the week, Russia’s aircraft and air defence systems shot down: six Tochka-U tactical missiles, one JDAM guided air bomb, 11 Olkha MLRS projectiles, 62 HIMARS and Uragan MLRS projectiles, as well as 274 unmanned aerial vehicles.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html