Races to Watch

The current New Jersey Governor—the Democrat Phil Murphy—is termed out. The Democrat nominee is Mikie Sherrill. Republicans have selected Jack Ciattarelli. Whose been down in most polls but Trafalgar has Ciattarelli within one—Sherril at 45% to 44% for Ciattarelli (Insider).

GOP gains among Hispanics in the presidential cycle may serve to benefit Ciattarelli—who is running for the governor’s seat for the third time. Veteran political analyst Michael Barone: In those two-thirds or more Hispanic, Trump made major gains in 2024, reducing their average Democratic margins from 40% in 2020 to 12%. NBC analyst Steve Kornacki pointed out that if Ciattarelli in 2021 had won Trump 2024 percentages in majority nonwhite municipalities, he would have lost by only 0.3% (Examiner).

Early voting in New Jersey begins on Saturday, October 25 (DOE).

Attorney General, Virginia: Miyares v. Jones

Few would have anticipated that a state AG race would get such nation attention and—likely—could have up-ticket implications on the governor’s race and national implications on the Democrat brand and their misplaced moral compass.

First, the polling: Trafalgar has the Republican Jason Miyares up 5 points over the Democrat Jay Jones (Trafalgar).

Stacey Matthews of RedState: The attorney general race in Virginia was certainly not a race anyone could have predicted would turn around the way it has, and so quickly as Election Day draws nearer. We’ve documented how the Democrat nominee, Jay Jones, has become mired in scandals of his own making, with the one understandably getting the most attention statewide and nationally centering around texts he sent in 2022 in which he fantasized about murdering a former GOP colleague in the House of Delegates, as well as the man’s children dying…. Anything can happen, of course, but if the current numbers are a reliable indicator, it’s looking like Jones will go down in defeat a second time (the first time was in the 2021 attorney general primary) in his bid to become attorney general, thanks in part to his apparent belief in Democrat privilege and that he is somehow above the law (RedState).

New Hampshire, US Senate: Former Sen. John Sununu

This is actually not a vote happening this November—but November 2026. The narrow margins in both chambers of Congress have both parties looking for opportunities for a gain, a pickup. And that’s exactly what the GOP sees in the announcement from Sununu on Wednesday:

Former Sen. John E. Sununu said Wednesday that he is running to reclaim the seat he held for a single term before Democrat Jeanne Shaheen ousted him in 2008. Shaheen is retiring next year. “Maybe you’re surprised to hear that I’m running for the Senate again. I’m a bit surprised myself. Why would anyone subject themselves to everything going on there right now?” Sununu said in a launch video posted online Wednesday morning. “Well, somebody has to step up and lower the temperature. Somebody has to get things done” …. And Sununu faces another former senator, Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts before moving to New Hampshire and mounting an unsuccessful bid to unseat Shaheen in 2014. Brown was the president’s first-term ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa and is now seeking his own political comeback by positioning himself as the more Trump-aligned candidate in the race (Politico).