Tesla bull sees a new path to 600,000 deliveries per quarter

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) bull Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities published a new note to investors on Thursday evening, which seemed to open up the possibility of the automaker returning to a growth rate in terms of deliveries.

After nearly two years of leveling off with deliveries, which was expected, Tesla is now slated to potentially return to growth, Ives says, as it has introduced new, more affordable models. It launched its Standard offerings for the Model 3 and Model Y this week, a strategy to bring cheaper cars to customers amid the loss of the $7,500 tax credit.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives put up a new Tesla $TSLA note:

“The AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to an AI driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s…

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 10, 2025

In his note to investors, Ives said:

“We believe the launch of a lower cost model represents the first step to getting back to a ~500k quarterly delivery run-rate, which will be important to stimulate demand for its fleet with the EV tax credit expiring at the end of September.”

Although these cars come in only slightly under $40,000, there is some belief that they will do two things: attract car buyers looking for an under-$40k EV with Tesla’s technology and infrastructure, or push those on the fence to the now-Premium models, which are simply the Long Range Rear-Wheel-Drive and Long Range All-Wheel-Drive.

Ives said in the note that Tesla’s plans for a $25,000 car are “on hold,” but it seems as if that vehicle will be the Cybercab, which the company unveiled a year ago today.

That project seems to be moving forward as well, based on what we saw at both Fremont and Gigafactory Texas yesterday. At Fremont, the Cybercab was spotted on the Test Track, while crash-tested units were spotted at the factory in Austin.

After the Standard models were rolled out and the Cybercab or another $25,000 unit arrives, Ives believes Tesla could actually get closer to 600,000 deliveries per quarter, he said on CNBC this morning:

BREAKING: DAN IVES SAYS — $TSLA WILL DELIVER ABOVE 600K CARS PER QUARTER

He says Tesla stock is going to $600+ ! pic.twitter.com/fWLfMnH1XH

— TheSonOfWalkley (@TheSonOfWalkley) October 10, 2025

Moving forward, Tesla has much more going for it than its potential growth in quarterly deliveries. Ives recognizes that a majority of what Tesla’s value will come from in the future: AI and autonomy.

Ives said:

“The AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to an AI driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose for Musk & Co. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap.”

Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and ‘Outperform’ rating on Tesla stock.

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