Tesla gets new Street-high price target with high hopes for autonomy domination

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a new Street-high price target from Wedbush’s Dan Ives today, who cited high hopes for the company’s prowess in the autonomous sector.

Ives boosted his price target from $500 to $600 today, reflecting the firm’s view that “an accelerated AI path for the company is now on the horizon and investors are underestimating the transformation underway at the company.”

In a new note written to investors on Friday, Ives cited that Tesla’s next stage of growth has arrived as Elon Musk has re-entered his role as a “wartime CEO,” which gives the company a huge advantage over its competitors.

Musk, when fully committed to Tesla, does his best work, and Ives believes the company’s mark on the autonomous sector will continue to expand with the help of the Trump White House.

He wrote:

“Musk is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth as ‘wartime CEO,’ and we expect Robotaxis to be rolled out aggressively to over 30 US cities within the next year. We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla, and we fully expect under a Trump White House over the coming yea,r these key initiatives will now get fast-tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb that Musk & Co. have encountered over the past few years around FSD/autonomous clears significantly under Trump. Trump wants the US to stay ahead of China in this AI Arms Race, and autonomous is a key factor in who wins AI….with Tesla playing a major role on Robotaxis.”

Most of the note focused on the long-term outlook for Tesla, which is where some of the most drastic claims were made, including ones that estimated a monstrous valuation for the company moving forward.

Ives said Wedbush is under the impression that Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap as early as the beginning of 2026 and a $3 trillion valuation by the end of the year. This growth will be primarily driven by the AI portion of the company’s projects:

“We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full-scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap. The AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story, and we believe the march to an AI-driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose for Musk & Co.”

In the near term, the only true issue at hand is deliveries, which Tesla should likely have a strong quarter thanks to the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit. Ives says he expects a beat of Q3 numbers, driven by an “improving demand out of China.”

He also said that while he expects this quarter to be strong, Tesla should aim to return to a run-rate of 500,000 deliveries every quarter, equating to approximately 2 million units per year. This will be driven by new, more affordable models, with the tax credit going away:

“On the near-term delivery front we are seeing a stabilization of demand globally that should enable Tesla to beat the Street’s 3Q delivery number with improving demand out of China. Getting back to a ~500k quarterly run-rate will be important as Tesla now looks to introduce new models to its customer base in 2026. There continues to be weak pockets in Europe but we believe Tesla is now starting to see signs of improvement in demand with a stronger growth trajectory into 2026.”

Tesla shares are up over 1.7 percent so far today, trading at around $430.

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