Predictions For The Remaining 15 Cases

Today the Court decided five new cases, including the blockbuster Skrmetti decision. I will have much more to say about that case in due course. For now, I will note that last night I concluded my post on Justice Barrett with this line:

There is always hope for tomorrow.

Indeed, tomorrow–that is today–brought hope! I try to be open-minded, and will treat each decision on its own terms. Based on my quick skim, there is a lot to be hopeful about.

Now, for predictions.

Based on my count, there are fifteen outstanding decisions. (Please email me if I’ve made any errors.)

All of the cases have been decided from the October, November, and December sittings.

In the January sitting, eleven cases were argued, and one was decided Per Curiam (remember TikTok?). There are five cases not yet decided: Hewitt, Stanley, Free Speech Coalition, McLaughlin, and R.J. Reynolds. Five Justices have not yet written: Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, and Jackson. I don’t have any strong feelings about the assignments. I think that Free Speech Coalition will go to a Justice who raised kids in the digital age: either Kavanaugh, Barrett, or Jackson.

In the February sitting, eight cases were argued. Two remain outstanding: Gutierrez and Esteras. Justices Sotomayor, Gorsuch, and Barrett have not yet written for that sitting. Barrett probably has Gutierrez, a case about jurisdiction. Sotomayor, the former district court judge, probably has Esteras, a sentencing case.

In the March sitting, nine cases were argued. Four cases remain outstanding: Louisiana  v. Callais, Riley v. Bondi, FCC v. Consumers’ Research, Fuld v. PLO, and Medina v. Planned Parenthood. Justice Thomas was assigned two EPA cases from this sitting, so he is done. That means one Justice likely does not have an assignment. Who has not yet written: Roberts, Alito, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett. I think the Chief will keep the Planned Parenthood case for himself. I think Roberts assigned Consumers’ Research to either Gorsuch or Kavanaugh, as they both have interest in delegation. Barrett has Riley, a nerdy jurisdictional case. And I think Kagan has the PLO case, which involves the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment.

In the April sitting, ten cases were argued, and two were dismissed PC. Three remain outstanding: Kennedy v. Braidwood, Mahmoud, and Diamond Alternative Energy. Four justices have not yet written from April: Alito, Kagan, Kavanaugh, Jackson. I can see Roberts giving Justice Kagan Braidwood, after all of her bitter Appointments Clause dissents. She will have the satisfaction of reversing the Fifth Circuit. I hope Alito has Mahmoud, but Roberts could let Jackson write something narrow and harmless. Whoever didn’t get Braidwood or Mahmoud will draw the short straw with Diamond.

The rest of the term seems fairly predictable. Barring any surprises, I do not expect any surprises.

Of course, my predictions are usually wrong, so please discount everything I wrote.

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